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18 posts found
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Oct 30, 2025
acx
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Links For October 2025

42 min • 6,423 words • 803 comments • 211 likes • podcast (38 min)
Scott Alexander presents 51 links covering AI progress and safety, political developments, scientific research, cultural oddities, and ongoing philosophical debates about miracles and education reform. Longer summary
Scott Alexander shares 51 links covering diverse topics including AI developments (agents, safety, consciousness research), political news (Ukraine policy, UK politics, Trump administration), science updates (climate predictions, genetics, bacteriophages), cultural curiosities (Shakespeare superfan plastic surgery, Soviet naming conventions, flag cones), health research (Alzheimer's prevention, shingles vaccine reducing dementia, kidney donation), and philosophical debates (Hume's argument against miracles, the Fatima miracle discussion). The post maintains Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and quirky observations, touching on everything from Bach's descendants in Oklahoma to the mystery of why AI still struggles with laundry folding despite mastering protein folding. Shorter summary
Jun 26, 2025
acx
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Missing Heritability: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

68 min • 10,491 words • 669 comments • 456 likes • podcast (62 min)
Scott explores the 'missing heritability' problem in genetics, where twin studies show traits like IQ and educational attainment are highly heritable but newer genomic methods find much lower heritability, analyzing various potential explanations for this discrepancy. Longer summary
The post examines the 'missing heritability' problem in genetics, where twin studies consistently show behavioral traits like IQ and educational attainment are substantially heritable (around 40-60%), while newer genomic methods find much lower heritability (around 15-20%). Scott reviews the history of behavioral genetics research, explains various study methodologies and their potential biases, and analyzes different hypotheses for this discrepancy. He examines whether twin studies might be flawed, whether newer methods might be missing important genetic effects, and whether educational attainment might be an unusually problematic trait to study. While acknowledging remaining mysteries, he tentatively concludes that twin studies are probably largely correct and that newer methods may be missing rare variants and genetic interactions. Shorter summary
Nov 01, 2024
acx
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Links For November 2024

42 min • 6,373 words • 932 comments • 216 likes • podcast (41 min)
A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena. Longer summary
This post is a compilation of various news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, technological advancements, cultural phenomena, and historical anecdotes. The post is structured as a numbered list, with each item briefly summarizing a piece of news or information. Some notable items include a new schizophrenia drug approval, YouGov polling results on various historical figures, findings on genetic IQ changes over time, and updates on AI technology and its implications. Shorter summary
Apr 30, 2024
acx
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Response to Hanson On Health Care

41 min • 6,243 words • 360 comments • 124 likes • podcast (34 min)
Scott Alexander responds to Robin Hanson's reply on medical effectiveness, clarifying interpretations and reiterating arguments about the limitations of insurance experiments in evaluating medical care. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to Robin Hanson's reply to his original post on medical effectiveness. Scott clarifies his interpretation of Hanson's views, discusses potential misunderstandings, and reiterates his arguments about the limitations of insurance experiments in evaluating medical effectiveness. He also addresses specific points Hanson made about cancer treatment, health insurance studies, and p-hacking in medical research. Scott concludes by restating his position that while some medicine is ineffective, it's crucial to distinguish between effective and ineffective treatments rather than dismissing medicine broadly. Shorter summary
Dec 01, 2023
acx
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Links For November 2023

27 min • 4,069 words • 410 comments • 125 likes • podcast (26 min)
A collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering topics from religious practices to AI developments, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering various topics. It includes discussions on religious practices, video games, political trends, scientific studies, AI developments, economic analyses, historical anecdotes, and cultural phenomena. The author provides brief commentary on many of the items, often with a mix of humor and critical analysis. The links range from academic studies and economic reports to quirky historical facts and contemporary cultural observations. Shorter summary
Nov 14, 2023
acx
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Does Anaesthesia Prove Ketamine Placebo?

12 min • 1,855 words • 316 comments • 120 likes • podcast (12 min)
Scott Alexander examines a study challenging ketamine's effectiveness as an antidepressant, discussing potential confounding factors and maintaining his belief in ketamine's utility despite the study's results. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses a recent study on ketamine's effectiveness as an antidepressant when administered during anesthesia. The study found no significant difference between ketamine and placebo groups, challenging previous beliefs about ketamine's antidepressant properties. Scott analyzes the study's methodology and results, pointing out several factors that might have influenced the outcomes, such as the strong placebo effect, the antidepressant properties of anesthetics, and the potential impact of surgery on depression symptoms. He concludes that while the study raises questions, it doesn't completely invalidate previous research showing ketamine's effectiveness, and he maintains his belief in ketamine's potential as an antidepressant for some patients. Shorter summary
Jun 14, 2023
acx
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The Canal Papers

32 min • 4,891 words • 175 comments • 210 likes • podcast (30 min)
Scott Alexander examines the 'canalization' theory in computational psychiatry and its refinement through deep learning concepts in the Deep CANAL model. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses a new paradigm in computational psychiatry called 'canalization', which models mental processes as an energy landscape with valleys representing attractors or persistent beliefs/behaviors. He then explores a follow-up paper that applies concepts from deep learning to refine this theory, introducing the Deep CANAL model. This model attempts to explain various mental disorders by mapping them onto different types of computational issues in artificial neural networks, such as overfitting/underfitting and the stability/plasticity dilemma. Scott expresses both interest and skepticism about this approach, noting its potential insights but also its limitations and potential contradictions with other theories. Shorter summary
Jul 12, 2022
acx
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Mantic Monday 7/11/22

12 min • 1,791 words • 278 comments • 57 likes • podcast (14 min)
The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events. Longer summary
This Mantic Monday post covers several current events and their related prediction markets. It starts with Trump's chances for the 2024 GOP nomination, which remain high despite recent scandals. The post then discusses the new Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting, funded by the Future Fund. It examines prediction markets for Elon Musk's Twitter deal, showing low chances of completion. The post analyzes the impact of the Dobbs decision on Democrats' Senate chances, noting a puzzling delay in market reactions. Finally, it covers various other forecasting topics, including COVID-19 ensemble models, the race to replace Boris Johnson, and predictions about the East African Federation. Shorter summary
Apr 22, 2022
acx
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Contra Hoffman On Vitamin D Dosing

26 min • 3,883 words • 159 comments • 84 likes • podcast (28 min)
Scott Alexander critiques Ben Hoffman's arguments about Vitamin D dosing, maintaining that it is primarily a bone-related chemical with limited evidence for other benefits. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to Ben Hoffman's critique of his views on Vitamin D dosing. He argues that ancestral populations likely received much less Vitamin D from sunlight than Hoffman suggests, and that the doses used in most studies are appropriate. Scott reviews the literature on Vitamin D dosing, discusses various recommendations and debates within the medical community, and explains why he remains skeptical of claims about Vitamin D's non-skeletal benefits, including for COVID-19 treatment. Shorter summary
Apr 14, 2022
acx
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Links For April

15 min • 2,290 words • 380 comments • 66 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander shares 33 diverse links on topics ranging from history and science to technology and politics, offering brief summaries and commentary on each. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 33 diverse links and brief summaries on various topics, including history, science, technology, politics, and culture. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects, from the history of garlic and magnets to AI-generated art, touching on topics like language models, Nobel laureates by state, ivermectin studies, nuclear weapons, and unusual legal cases. The post showcases interesting facts, recent studies, and thought-provoking ideas across multiple disciplines. Shorter summary
Dec 22, 2021
acx
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The FDA Has Punted Decisions About Luvox Prescription To The Deepest Recesses Of The Human Soul

20 min • 3,031 words • 252 comments • 162 likes • podcast (21 min)
Scott Alexander argues that doctors should prescribe fluvoxamine for COVID-19 despite FDA inaction, urging them to overcome discomfort with off-label use when evidence supports it. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the use of fluvoxamine (Luvox) as a potential treatment for COVID-19. He argues that despite strong evidence from clinical trials showing its effectiveness, many doctors are hesitant to prescribe it due to it being off-label use. The FDA has not added COVID-19 to the drug's label, citing bureaucratic issues. Scott criticizes this inaction and suggests that doctors should be willing to prescribe off-label when evidence supports it, even if it feels uncomfortable. He relates personal experiences of hesitating to prescribe off-label medications due to social pressure and encourages doctors to critically examine their reasons for not prescribing fluvoxamine for COVID-19. Shorter summary
Nov 25, 2021
acx
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Links For November

24 min • 3,596 words • 738 comments • 63 likes • podcast (30 min)
Scott Alexander shares 34 varied links and pieces of information on topics including science, history, politics, and technology, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 34 diverse links and snippets of information on various topics. It covers subjects ranging from Jeff Bezos' biological father, to studies on Christianity's growth, to climate change discussions, to updates on AI progress. The post also includes commentary on current events like the University of Austin controversy and political polling trends. Many of the links discuss recent scientific studies or historical anecdotes, often with Scott's brief analysis or opinion added. Shorter summary
Nov 17, 2021
acx
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Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

109 min • 16,786 words • 2,113 comments • 442 likes • podcast (128 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes ivermectin studies for COVID-19, finding most positive results likely due to methodological flaws, fraud, or confounding by parasitic infections. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of ivermectin studies for COVID-19 treatment, examining methodological issues, potential fraud, and confounding factors. He concludes that ivermectin likely doesn't significantly reduce COVID mortality except potentially in areas with high parasitic worm infections. The post explores broader issues around scientific credibility, fraud detection, and public trust in science. Shorter summary
Sep 02, 2021
acx
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Long COVID: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

50 min • 7,628 words • 259 comments • 100 likes • podcast (56 min)
Scott Alexander examines the current research on Long COVID, analyzing its prevalence, symptoms, and potential impacts to assess personal risk and societal implications. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the current research on Long COVID, examining its prevalence, symptoms, duration, and impact on different groups. He explores various studies, discusses potential mechanisms, and evaluates the psychosomatic argument. The post concludes with an assessment of personal risk and comparisons to other post-viral syndromes, emphasizing the uncertainties still surrounding Long COVID. Shorter summary
Jul 07, 2021
acx
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Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

73 min • 11,254 words • 491 comments • 107 likes • podcast (87 min)
Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective. Longer summary
Scott analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdowns, examining data from Sweden, US states, and Europe. He finds that lockdowns likely reduced transmission rates, with targeted measures like school closures being more effective than stay-at-home orders. The analysis suggests lockdowns saved lives but at significant economic and emotional costs, with the cost-effectiveness varying between countries and time periods. Scott concludes that fast, well-targeted lockdowns may have been optimal, but emphasizes the high uncertainty in these estimates. Shorter summary
Apr 06, 2021
acx
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Two Unexpected Multiple Hypothesis Testing Problems

13 min • 1,958 words • 256 comments • 67 likes • podcast (15 min)
Scott Alexander examines two cases of multiple hypothesis testing problems in medical and social science research, highlighting the complexities in interpreting results. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses two cases of multiple hypothesis testing problems. The first involves a Vitamin D study for COVID-19 where a significant difference in blood pressure between groups complicates the interpretation of results. The second case relates to Scott's own study on ambidexterity and authoritarianism, where he questions the applicability of traditional multiple hypothesis testing corrections. He explores the complexities of interpreting multiple tests of the same hypothesis and considers Bayesian approaches, ultimately acknowledging the limits of his statistical knowledge on this seemingly simple question. Shorter summary
Feb 16, 2021
acx
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COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

20 min • 2,989 words • 274 comments • 161 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott Alexander critically evaluates the evidence for Vitamin D's role in COVID-19 prevention and treatment, ultimately leaning towards skepticism while acknowledging the low risk of supplementation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines the evidence for and against Vitamin D's effectiveness in preventing or treating COVID-19. He reviews various studies, including observational data, randomized controlled trials, and Mendelian randomization studies. While some evidence suggests a potential link between Vitamin D levels and COVID-19 outcomes, Scott ultimately leans towards skepticism. He discusses possible confounding factors and methodological issues in some of the positive studies. Despite his skepticism, Scott acknowledges the low risk of Vitamin D supplementation and suggests it may still be beneficial for other reasons. Shorter summary
Mar 19, 2020
ssc
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Coronalinks 3/19/20

24 min • 3,668 words • 705 comments • podcast (25 min)
Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses. Longer summary
This blog post provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It covers topics such as estimating the true number of cases, the lack of a clear endgame strategy, the effectiveness of 'flattening the curve', differentiating COVID-19 from flu symptoms, the use of anti-inflammatory drugs, ventilator shortages, disease seasonality, the need for better data, and the Bay Area's response to the crisis. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and observations. Shorter summary
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