Scott Alexander endorses Harris, Oliver, or Stein for the 2024 US presidential election, arguing against Trump's authoritarianism while acknowledging and countering arguments that Democrats may be more subtly authoritarian. Longer summary

Scott Alexander endorses Kamala Harris, Oliver, or Stein for the 2024 US presidential election, recommending Harris in swing states and Harris or a third-party candidate in safe states. He argues against Trump primarily on the grounds of authoritarianism, comparing the threat to Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. Scott acknowledges the strongest counter-argument that Democrats may be more subtly authoritarian, but ultimately rejects it for four reasons: the importance of punishing clear norm violations, current political headwinds favoring the right, personal integrity, and Trump's own authoritarian tendencies. The post ends with a reflection on the psychological tendency to view elections as a two-character drama between oneself and the Democratic Party, urging readers to consider the full comparison between candidates. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes Javier Milei's presidency in Argentina, noting mixed results in economic indicators and policies, with some successes in budget cuts and inflation reduction, but increased poverty rates. Longer summary

This post analyzes the performance of Javier Milei, Argentina's libertarian president, focusing on key economic indicators and policies. Scott examines government surplus, inflation, poverty rates, rent control abolition, and Milei's approval ratings. He notes that Milei has achieved a government surplus through significant spending cuts and has reduced monthly inflation, though yearly inflation figures remain high. Poverty has increased under Milei's administration, but there are slight signs of economic improvement. The abolition of rent control has led to increased housing supply and lower prices. Milei's approval ratings, while declining, remain relatively high compared to other world leaders. Scott concludes that while Milei has fulfilled his promise of short-term economic shock, it's too early to judge the long-term success of his policies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines prediction markets suggesting that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee could significantly improve the party's chances in the 2024 election. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets to assess whether replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee would improve the party's chances in the 2024 election. He finds that replacing Biden with Kamala Harris would be neutral to slightly positive, while replacing him with Gavin Newsom or a generic Democrat could increase their odds of winning by 10-15 percentage points. Scott discusses potential objections to these findings, examines his own previous skepticism about Biden's cognitive decline, and reflects on the implications for Democratic party leadership and decision-making. Shorter summary

The post challenges the notion that effect sizes below 0.50 for medications are clinically insignificant, using antidepressants as a case study and comparing them to other common drugs. Longer summary

This post discusses the interpretation of effect sizes in medical studies, particularly for antidepressants. It challenges the common notion that effect sizes below 0.50 are clinically insignificant. The author presents a Danish study that simulates various hypothetical medications, showing that even drugs that cure or significantly improve depression in a large percentage of patients might not meet traditional effect size thresholds. The post explains why these thresholds might be unrealistic due to factors like the placebo effect, high standard deviations in placebo groups, and patient dropouts. It also compares antidepressant effect sizes to those of other widely accepted medications, concluding that many common drugs would be considered 'clinically insignificant' by strict effect size standards. The author suggests that claims about 'meaningless effect sizes' should be given less weight compared to other evidence, such as clinical experience. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses reader comments on his Columbus Day post, covering historical and cultural controversies around holidays and Columbus. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about Columbus Day, addressing criticisms and controversies raised by readers. He discusses the origins of Christmas and Easter, the historical accuracy of claims about Columbus, the theological significance of Arianism, cultural differences in holiday celebrations, and various perspectives on Columbus Day and its meaning. Shorter summary

Scott reviews Viktor Orban's rise to power in Hungary, detailing his political transformation and methods of consolidating control through exploiting constitutional loopholes. Longer summary

This post reviews Viktor Orban's rise to power in Hungary, detailing his transformation from a liberal democrat to a far-right nationalist and his methods of consolidating control. Scott describes Orban's background, his political maneuvering, and how he exploited Hungary's political system to create a near-impregnable position. The post also discusses Orban's anti-immigrant stance during the 2015 refugee crisis and his attempts to boost Hungary's fertility rate. Scott concludes by expressing his dislike for Orban, comparing him unfavorably to other dictators, and warning about the dangers of leaving political loopholes that can be exploited by such figures. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various applications and recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, covering topics from election betting to teacher evaluation and social media moderation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. He starts with the concept of a Keynesian beauty contest applied to long-term forecasting, then analyzes recent developments in PredictIt markets, particularly the Virginia gubernatorial election. He explores the idea of using prediction markets to evaluate teacher performance, and examines some recent Metaculus predictions on SpaceX valuation, college enrollment, and AI code assistance adoption. The post also covers Vitalik Buterin's proposal for using prediction markets in social media moderation, and concludes with various links to prediction market-related news and articles. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and grades his predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, covering topics from Trump's base diversity to the likelihood of a coup. He analyzes his successes and failures, discussing his performance on prediction markets and his overall accuracy compared to average pundits. Scott concludes that he did about average in his predictions, with some notable successes in race-related predictions and on prediction markets, but also made mistakes in overestimating Trump's competence and underestimating his continued support from Republicans. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links to interesting articles, studies, and news items on topics ranging from history and science to politics and culture. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including Russian city flags, archaeological hoaxes, growth mindset research, atomic gardening, AI takeoff scenarios, UFO patents, antibiotic resistance, freelance journalism laws, religious trends in the Middle East, presidential candidate support by occupation, civility in politics, pollution comparisons, open borders debates, gender reveal party accidents, historical theories about Western psychology, entrepreneurship age trends, socialist proposals, WWI myths, biological feedback mechanisms, and various other curiosities and current events. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and news items, covering topics from historical anecdotes to recent scientific studies and cultural trends. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from various fields. It covers topics such as historical anecdotes, scientific studies, political developments, technological innovations, and cultural trends. The author, Scott Alexander, provides brief summaries and sometimes adds his own commentary or humorous observations. The post touches on subjects like cryptocurrency, open access scientific publishing, genetic research, social media effects on polarization, and artificial intelligence developments. It also includes updates on ongoing stories and mysteries, such as the illness affecting US diplomats and the discovery of ancient skeletons in Tibet. Shorter summary

The post examines the compatibility of Islam and liberal democracy by analyzing six Muslim-majority countries, finding a wide spectrum of outcomes and concluding that Islam often acts as an obstacle to liberal democracy. Longer summary

This post examines the compatibility of Islam and liberal democracy by analyzing six Muslim-majority countries: United Arab Emirates, Tunisia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Lebanon. The authors review each country's history, constitution, democratic institutions, and human rights record to assess the extent to which liberal democracy has taken hold. They find a wide spectrum, from Tunisia's robust democracy to Iran's theocratic regime, with the other countries falling in between. The authors conclude that while it's possible for Muslim countries to adopt liberal democracy, Islam often acts as an obstacle, and most Muslim countries have only taken small steps in that direction so far. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines a major meta-analysis on antidepressant efficacy, noting potential biases and comparing its surprising drug rankings to his own previous analysis. Longer summary

This post reviews a major meta-analysis by Cipriani et al on the efficacy of antidepressants. The study claims to definitively show antidepressants work, but Scott notes it doesn't actually refute previous critiques about their effectiveness. He examines potential biases and methodological issues in the study, particularly around industry funding of trials. Scott also discusses the study's ranking of different antidepressants, noting some matches with conventional wisdom but also some surprising results. He compares these rankings to his own previous analysis, finding major discrepancies, and concludes by urging some caution in interpreting the study's results despite its impressive scope. Shorter summary

The post criticizes the gendered framing of sexual harassment, presenting statistics on male victims and female perpetrators, and argues for a more balanced approach to the issue. Longer summary

This post critiques the gendered nature of sexual harassment discourse, arguing that it ignores male victims and female perpetrators. The author presents statistics showing that about 30% of sexual harassment victims are men and 20% of perpetrators are women. He argues that the media and society have framed sexual harassment as a exclusively male-on-female issue, silencing male victims and ignoring female perpetrators. The post suggests that this framing is deliberate and counterproductive, preventing a full understanding of the issue and making it harder for all victims to get justice. The author advocates for treating sexual harassment more like terrorism - as a universal problem that can be perpetrated by anyone, regardless of gender. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that media criticism of Silicon Valley based on products like Juicero ignores the significant innovative and altruistic work being done in the tech hub. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the media's portrayal of Silicon Valley as being solely focused on frivolous products like the Juicero juicer. He argues that while such products exist, they are not representative of the majority of Silicon Valley's work. He provides examples of important and innovative projects in areas like medical research, renewable energy, and space exploration. Alexander analyzes Y Combinator and Andreessen Horowitz portfolios to show that most startups are focused on serious business solutions or altruistic goals. He theorizes that people's perception of Silicon Valley is influenced by their own interests and experiences, leading to different views of what the tech hub 'does'. He concludes by arguing that Silicon Valley's mistakes are less harmful than those of other influential sectors, and that its capacity for innovation should be appreciated and protected. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a new list of internet annoyances for 2015, ranging from argumentative tactics to web design issues. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on his 2014 post about things he wanted to stop seeing on the internet, noting some improvements. He then lists 10 new annoyances for 2015, including misuse of Poe's Law, overuse of violent language in debate, cheap shots in arguments, Wikipedia-shaming, intrusive web design, clickbait tactics, overuse of 'entitled' as an insult, confusing 'post-' labels, and pedantic disputes about human evolution. The post is written in a humorous and slightly exasperated tone, critiquing various internet habits and trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from politics and economics to scientific studies, offering brief commentaries and critiques. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and brief commentaries on various topics. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects including politics, science, social issues, and economics. He discusses studies on poverty traps, the relationship between poverty and crime, and the effects of marijuana legalization. The post also includes quirky facts, book reviews, and observations on cultural phenomena. Scott's tone is analytical and often skeptical, particularly when discussing scientific studies and their interpretations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting news items and links from July 2014, covering topics from philosophy and politics to science and pop culture. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from July 2014. Scott covers a wide range of topics, including a plagiarism scandal involving Slavoj Zizek, a man claiming unclaimed African land for his daughter, artificial language generation, diet research, a Tumblr convention, online drug trade, religious preferences in America, and various other cultural, scientific, and political items. The post has a light, sometimes humorous tone, and often includes Scott's personal commentary on the news items. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines two cases of online mob justice in feminist circles to argue that movements abandoning civility ultimately self-destruct. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses two incidents of online mob justice in the feminist community. The first involves Charles Clymer, a feminist activist who was attacked on social media for perceived misogyny and insensitivity. The second is 'Jacobinghazi', a controversy involving the leftist magazine Jacobin. Scott uses these examples to argue that movements which abandon principles of charity and civility ultimately harm themselves, comparing them to cancers that grow too large and destructive. He concludes that communities which tolerate jerks within their ranks will eventually be torn apart by those same jerks. Shorter summary