Scott examines San Francisco's apparent improvement in homelessness, finding the main effect was decreased tent encampments due to court rulings allowing easier clearing, not actual reduction in homeless population, revealing a basic tradeoff between visibility and homeless welfare. Longer summary

Scott investigates why San Francisco's homelessness crisis appears to have improved, finding that the main effect was a dramatic decrease in tent encampments (not overall homelessness) due to court rulings making it easier to clear them. He analyzes four potential explanations: encampment clearing after legal changes starting in 2023, a possible small decrease in actual homelessness due to falling rents and enforcement driving people to hide, Mayor Lurie's policies (which he finds mostly ineffective), and claims about cities shipping homeless people elsewhere (which he finds largely unsupported). Scott concludes this is a 'maximally boring story' about a basic tradeoff where cities made homelessness less visible at the cost of making homeless people's lives harder, challenging both his previous belief that nothing could improve the problem without mass incarceration and the opposing view that 'getting tough' would be compassionate. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and grades his predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, covering topics from Trump's base diversity to the likelihood of a coup. He analyzes his successes and failures, discussing his performance on prediction markets and his overall accuracy compared to average pundits. Scott concludes that he did about average in his predictions, with some notable successes in race-related predictions and on prediction markets, but also made mistakes in overestimating Trump's competence and underestimating his continued support from Republicans. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against criticism of billionaire philanthropy, citing its efficiency, positive impact, and ability to support important causes that governments often neglect. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against criticizing billionaire philanthropy, presenting several points: 1) Criticizing philanthropy more than luxury spending incentivizes the wrong behavior. 2) The potential good done by philanthropy outweighs concerns about inequality. 3) Billionaire donations often receive more scrutiny than praise. 4) Government spending is often less efficient and focused on important causes than private philanthropy. 5) Philanthropy can support pluralism and fund important work the government won't. 6) Centralized government control risks a single point of failure. He concludes that the immense good done by philanthropic efforts, such as saving millions of lives, outweighs concerns about democratic accountability or inequality. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines bail reform as a potential solution to high incarceration rates in the US, discussing its impacts, alternatives, and the effectiveness of bail-paying charities. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the issue of high incarceration rates in the US and focuses on bail reform as a potential solution. He explains how the current bail system disproportionately affects poor defendants, leading to longer sentences and more convictions. The post examines alternatives like Washington DC's system without monetary bail and the effectiveness of charities that pay bail for defendants. Alexander compares the cost-effectiveness of bail reform charities to other efficient charities and suggests both short-term (supporting bail-paying charities) and long-term (systemic criminal justice reform) solutions. He concludes that while bail reform may not be the most important change needed in the US criminal justice system, it could be one of the easiest to implement. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the phenomenon of cost disease, where costs for basic services like education and healthcare have increased dramatically without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of cost disease, where costs for essential services like education, healthcare, and housing have increased significantly over the past few decades without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. He presents data showing how these costs have risen much faster than inflation, while worker salaries in these fields have remained stagnant or even declined. Alexander considers various potential explanations for this phenomenon, including market failures, increased regulation, lawsuit fears, and changing risk tolerance. He argues that this cost disease is a major factor behind many current political and economic debates, and expresses concern about its impact on living standards and economic progress. Shorter summary

Scott summarizes diverse perspectives from comments on his school choice article, covering topics like education costs, charter schools, and potential market failures in education. Longer summary

This post summarizes key points from the comment thread on Scott's previous article about school choice. It covers various perspectives on for-profit vs. nonprofit schools, cost increases in education, food deserts, charter schools, and potential market failures in education. Scott notes some arguments that made him more pessimistic about charter schools, but maintains that careful experimentation is needed. The post concludes by acknowledging that Betsy DeVos' policies don't qualify as careful experimentation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques arguments against school vouchers, discussing potential efficiency gains and drawbacks of privatization in education, while proposing experimental approaches to school reform. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Nathan Robinson's arguments against school vouchers, discussing the potential efficiency gains and drawbacks of privatization in education. He compares education to other sectors like healthcare and grocery stores, analyzes the rising costs in public education, and proposes experimental approaches to school reform, including a system of small, home-based schools. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that accusations of Trump being an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are exaggerated and harmful, and calls for more measured criticism of Trump's actual flaws. Longer summary

In this post, Scott Alexander argues that accusations of racism and white supremacy against Donald Trump and his supporters are exaggerated and harmful. He contends that while Trump has said and done problematic things, claims that he is an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are not supported by evidence. Alexander reviews various arguments about Trump's alleged racism and rebuts them, citing statistics and providing context. He argues that treating Trump as uniquely racist compared to past presidents is inaccurate and counterproductive. The post ends with a call to stop 'crying wolf' about racism, as it causes unnecessary fear and may desensitize people to real instances of racism in the future. Alexander makes several predictions about what will happen under a Trump presidency to back up his argument. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander endorses Clinton (or Johnson/Stein in safe states) over Trump, citing concerns about Trump's unpredictability and potential negative impacts on conservatism and social dynamics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander endorses voting for Hillary Clinton in swing states, and Clinton, Johnson, or Stein in safe states. He argues against Donald Trump, not primarily on policy grounds, but because of Trump's unpredictability, potential for high-variance outcomes, and the damage he could do to conservatism and the fight against social justice extremism. Alexander expresses concerns about Trump's lack of concrete plans, his potential to radicalize the next generation towards the far left, and his movement's epistemic vices. He also touches on issues like global warming and immigration, urging readers to consider the long-term consequences of their vote. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses how political groups can shift from outgroups to 'fargroups', leading to less hostility and more exoticization, and predicts this pattern may increase political in-fighting while reducing inter-party conflict. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'fargroups' as opposed to outgroups, and how this distinction affects political discourse. He argues that as groups become less threatening, they transition from outgroups to fargroups, leading to exoticization rather than hostility. The post traces this pattern in the decline of atheism vs. religion debates and the rise of intra-party conflicts in American politics. Scott predicts that as political bubbles increase, opposing parties may become fargroups, while internal party factions become the new outgroups. He also notes a trend of sympathetic portrayals of Trump and Brexit supporters, suggesting they're transitioning to fargroup status for some progressives. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander dissects and criticizes Breitbart's misleading use of statistics about illegal immigrant crime, emphasizing the need for better understanding and interpretation of data in political debates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a Breitbart article about illegal immigrant crime statistics, pointing out numerous flaws in their reasoning and use of data. He highlights how the article misinterprets or misrepresents statistics, fails to provide necessary context, and makes illogical conclusions. Scott argues that while there may be legitimate concerns about illegal immigration, the article's approach is misleading and unhelpful. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of recognizing flawed arguments on both sides of political debates, rather than assuming one's opponents are simply gullible. Shorter summary

Scott shares and comments on various links covering science, politics, and culture, with topics ranging from automation's effect on employment to psychology's replication crisis. Longer summary

This is a collection of interesting links and brief commentaries by Scott Alexander. He covers a wide range of topics including scientific studies, current events, and cultural phenomena. Notable items include studies about employment and automation, discrimination research methodology, problems with student course evaluations, and psychology's reproducibility crisis. The post also includes quirky items like Dutch swearing customs and unusual products, maintaining Scott's characteristic mix of serious analysis and lighter observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes misleading media reports on drug testing welfare recipients, showing how flawed methods and misrepresented data led to false conclusions about drug use rates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques media coverage of drug testing programs for welfare recipients in Tennessee and Florida. He points out that the widely reported extremely low drug use rates (0.12% in Tennessee) are due to flawed testing methods, not actual low drug use. The Tennessee program only used a written questionnaire, while Florida's program, which used urine tests, was misrepresented by not accounting for those who refused testing. Alexander argues that these misleading reports are worse than Brian Williams' helicopter story embellishment because they misinform on important policy issues and display arrogance in criticizing those who believe welfare recipients use drugs at higher rates. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores how controversial ideas spread more effectively than uncontroversial ones, using examples from activism and media to illustrate this 'toxoplasma of rage' effect. Longer summary

This post discusses the concept of 'toxoplasma of rage', where controversial and outrage-inducing ideas spread more effectively than uncontroversial ones. Scott uses examples like PETA's provocative campaigns, viral rape cases, and the Ferguson protests to illustrate how activists and media are incentivized to focus on the most divisive cases, even if it ultimately harms their cause. He compares this to the toxoplasma parasite's life cycle and explores how social media platforms like Tumblr can amplify these effects. The post concludes by suggesting that this phenomenon is part of a larger system of perverse incentives that makes it difficult for society to focus on important but uncontroversial issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against using dishonest and harmful tactics in pursuit of social or political goals, defending the power of truthfulness, kindness, and liberalism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the idea that using lies, insults, and harassment is justified in pursuing social or political goals. He contends that civilization and progress are built on agreements to be truthful and kind, even to opponents. The post explores how beneficial equilibria can arise without central enforcement, through reciprocal communitarianism and 'divine grace'. Scott defends his focus on criticizing those who claim to be rational but use dishonest tactics, seeing them as a threat to the 'walled garden' of rational discourse. He argues that liberalism and non-violence have been historically successful strategies, contrary to the view that they are weak. The post ends by comparing liberalism to a powerful 'Elder God' that should not be underestimated. Shorter summary