Scott demonstrates that US crime rates are at historic lows using multiple data sources, then debunks the theories that this is due to reporting bias or improved medical care, before briefly discussing possible explanations for the decline. Longer summary

Scott presents evidence that US crime rates, particularly murder rates, are at or near historic lows, then systematically debunks two common objections: that the decline is due to underreporting bias, and that it's an artifact of improved medical care saving would-be murder victims. He shows that multiple independent data sources (including victim surveys and consistently-reported crimes like car theft) confirm the decline, and that while medical care has improved, gun injuries have become more severe at roughly the same rate, canceling out the effect. The post concludes by listing various theories for why crime has declined and questioning why public perception doesn't match the data. Shorter summary

This review explores how schools are primarily designed to maximize motivation rather than learning, explaining why age-graded classrooms and seemingly inefficient group learning have persisted despite numerous attempts at reform. Longer summary

The post examines why schools have maintained their traditional structure of age-graded classrooms where all students learn the same content, despite its apparent inefficiencies. The author argues that schools are designed primarily to maximize motivation rather than learning, using conformity as a key tool. Through analyzing various attempts at personalized learning and their consistent failures to scale beyond about 5% of students, the post explains how students fall into three categories: no-structure learners, low-structure learners, and high-structure learners. The author concludes that while the current system is far from perfect, it has proven more effective at scale than any alternatives, predicting that despite continued attempts at reform, the basic structure of schooling will remain unchanged. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates why self-reported IQ scores in online surveys are implausibly high, identifying issues with conversion tools, reporting bias, and unreliable tests. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates why self-reported IQ scores in online surveys seem implausibly high. He analyzes data from two surveys (Less Wrong 2014 and Clearer Thinking 2023) and identifies three main issues: 1) A popular SAT to IQ conversion tool was inaccurate, inflating scores. 2) Only the smartest people tend to report their SAT scores, skewing the sample. 3) Self-reported IQ test scores are often inflated or based on unreliable tests. After accounting for these factors, he estimates the average IQ of the Clearer Thinking sample at 111 and the Less Wrong sample at 128, which he considers more plausible. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links and brief comments on recent developments in science, technology, politics, and society, ranging from climate change to AI developments to social experiments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links and brief comments on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including climate change, AI developments, social experiments, scientific studies, political issues, and technological innovations. The author presents these topics with a mix of factual reporting, personal commentary, and sometimes humorous observations. The post touches on subjects like geoengineering, crypto for sex workers, AI art, fertility rates, dating apps, charity effectiveness, and many others. The author often provides links to original sources and sometimes offers his own analysis or opinion on the matters discussed. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that describable dating preferences are valuable, despite studies suggesting otherwise, by pointing out flaws in research and emphasizing real-world evidence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques studies suggesting that describable preferences are useless in dating, arguing that common sense and empirical evidence show otherwise. He points out flaws in these studies, such as pre-sorted populations and brief evaluation periods, and suggests that while initial attraction might be random, similar interests and personalities likely lead to lasting relationships. Scott also discusses the value of dating profiles and 'dating docs' in conveying subjective preferences that can't be easily quantified in psychological exams. He concludes that for people who believe they can use describable preferences effectively, these tools remain valuable despite average trends in the general population. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 38 links and news items, covering topics from book reviews and religious history to AI developments and political trends, with brief summaries and comments on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 38 diverse links and news items covering topics such as book reviews, religious history, economic forecasts, libertarianism, crime statistics, scientific studies, AI developments, educational policies, and political trends. Scott Alexander provides brief summaries or comments on each item, often with a mix of factual information and his own perspective. The links range from academic studies to social media posts, covering current events, historical anecdotes, and ongoing debates in various fields. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links and news items from July 2023, covering topics from historical curiosities to current technological and social developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from July 2023. It covers a wide range of topics including historical curiosities, scientific studies, social issues, technological advancements, and current events. The post touches on subjects such as town naming, polyamory research, AI developments, and political decisions. It also includes some humorous and unusual facts, as well as commentary on social and cultural trends. Shorter summary

A review of 'Safe Enough?' by Thomas Wellock, exploring the history and limitations of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in nuclear safety. Longer summary

This book review examines 'Safe Enough? A History of Nuclear Power and Accident Risk' by Thomas Wellock, which chronicles the development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in nuclear safety. The review discusses how PRA became the dominant method for analyzing nuclear risk, its successes in reducing accidents, and its limitations in predicting extreme events like Fukushima. The author argues that while PRA greatly improved nuclear safety, it cannot fully account for rare but catastrophic 'dragon king' events, leaving the question of whether nuclear power is 'safe enough' ultimately unanswered. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the 'canalization' theory in computational psychiatry and its refinement through deep learning concepts in the Deep CANAL model. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a new paradigm in computational psychiatry called 'canalization', which models mental processes as an energy landscape with valleys representing attractors or persistent beliefs/behaviors. He then explores a follow-up paper that applies concepts from deep learning to refine this theory, introducing the Deep CANAL model. This model attempts to explain various mental disorders by mapping them onto different types of computational issues in artificial neural networks, such as overfitting/underfitting and the stability/plasticity dilemma. Scott expresses both interest and skepticism about this approach, noting its potential insights but also its limitations and potential contradictions with other theories. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the difficulties in contextualizing statistics, providing numerous examples to show how the same data can be presented to seem significant or trivial. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the challenges of putting statistical findings into context, showing how different comparisons can make the same statistic seem either significant or trivial. He provides numerous examples of effect sizes and correlations from various fields to illustrate this point. The post aims to promote awareness of how statistics can be manipulated and encourages readers to be vigilant when interpreting contextual comparisons. Scott also acknowledges the limitations of using standardized effect sizes but argues for their utility in certain situations where more specific measures are difficult to comprehend. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and news items, covering topics from architecture and history to AI developments and scientific studies, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, history, animal welfare, optical illusions, scientific studies, AI developments, demographics, and more. Scott provides brief commentary on many of the items, sometimes expressing his personal opinions or highlighting interesting aspects. The post includes both light-hearted topics (like unusual baby names) and more serious discussions (such as AI safety concerns and research on gender bias in academia). Shorter summary

The review explores Jane Jacobs' economic theories from two of her books, focusing on the importance of cities in economic development and challenging conventional wisdom on separatism and large political entities. Longer summary

This review examines two books by Jane Jacobs: 'Cities and the Wealth of Nations' and 'The Question of Separatism'. The reviewer explores Jacobs' economic theories, which center on the importance of cities in economic development. Jacobs argues that cities, not nations, are the fundamental units of economic life, and that the process of import replacement is crucial for economic growth. The review also discusses Jacobs' views on separatism, currency, and the drawbacks of large political entities. The author notes that Jacobs' ideas challenge conventional wisdom across the political spectrum and suggests that her work deserves more attention in economic discourse. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the unexpectedly high prevalence of joint hypermobility in transgender individuals, exploring various theories and presenting survey data on the phenomenon. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the puzzling connection between transgender identity and hypermobile joints, particularly Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (EDS). He presents four theories to explain this correlation: 1) It's a spurious result due to 'Instagrammable' conditions clustering together, 2) Estrogen effects on joints in trans women, 3) Genetic link between gender divergence and joint issues, and 4) Autism as a shared causative factor. Scott favors a theory linking proprioception issues to different reasoning styles, potentially leading to both autism and transgender identity. He presents data from his own survey showing higher rates of joint issues in trans respondents, though with some limitations. The post concludes with plans for further investigation in future surveys. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the potential role of psychopharmacology in the FTX crash, discussing medications used by SBF and others, and their possible effects on decision-making. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the psychopharmacology aspects of the FTX crash, focusing on the medications Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and other FTX employees may have been taking. He examines claims about SBF's use of Emsam (selegiline), modafinil, and other stimulants, explaining their effects and potential risks. Scott also critiques the actions of FTX's company psychiatrist and discusses the broader implications of stimulant use in high-pressure work environments. The post ends with Scott's personal anecdote about testifying as an expert witness. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 40 diverse and intriguing links and news items from September 2022, covering topics from AI advancements to political analysis and cultural observations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of 40 interesting links and news items from September 2022. The topics range from AI developments and their implications, to political analysis, scientific discoveries, and cultural observations. He covers subjects like image generation AI, conspiracy theories, the political situation in South Africa, nuclear power in California, and language models' capabilities. The post also includes personal anecdotes, book reviews, and interesting statistical findings. Shorter summary

A detailed review of Michael Shellenberger's 'San Fransicko', examining its critiques of San Francisco's progressive policies on homelessness, drugs, and crime. Longer summary

This post reviews Michael Shellenberger's book 'San Fransicko', which criticizes progressive policies on homelessness, drug addiction, and crime in San Francisco. The review examines key claims in the book, fact-checking statistics and comparing them to other sources. While finding some of Shellenberger's criticisms valid, the review also points out areas where the book presents a one-sided narrative or misrepresents data. Overall, the reviewer sees the book as a flawed but thought-provoking critique of San Francisco's approach to urban problems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses a replication of his nootropics survey, expressing skepticism about the results due to potential placebo effects and biases in participant ratings. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a replication of his 2020 nootropics survey by the blog Troof, which gathered data from 1981 subjects using a recommendation engine. While the results largely align with Scott's original survey, he expresses some skepticism about the findings. He notes that addictive or illegal substances, difficult lifestyle interventions, and fancy high-tech chemicals tend to rank higher, which could be due to both actual effectiveness and placebo effects. Scott highlights concerns about psilocybin microdosing's high ranking despite studies showing its ineffectiveness, and the low ranking of SAMe despite its proven effectiveness in clinical trials. He suggests that a simple model based on factors like difficulty of obtaining the substance and perceived novelty could largely predict the survey results, questioning whether any findings truly stand out beyond these factors. Shorter summary

Scott critiques evolutionary explanations for suitor-parent disagreements in mate choice, proposing that suitors use innate instincts while parents rely on reasoning, leading to different preferences. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Dynomight's theories on why suitors and parents disagree about mate choice. He argues that evolutionary psychology explanations are insufficient, proposing instead that suitors rely on innate, finely-tuned instincts for mate selection, while parents use less-evolved human reasoning. This difference in decision-making processes leads to systematically different preferences. Scott also explores the complexity of human drives related to reproduction, questioning whether they exist at different cognitive 'levels' (reptilian, mammalian, human) and how they interact. Shorter summary

A review of Stanislas Dehaene's 'Consciousness and the Brain', discussing scientific findings on consciousness and their implications. Longer summary

This review discusses Stanislas Dehaene's book 'Consciousness and the Brain', which explores the scientific understanding of consciousness. The book defines consciousness as the ability to report on a perception, and describes experiments that differentiate conscious from unconscious processing. It explains what the brain can do unconsciously, what requires consciousness, and how consciousness operates in the brain. The review also covers the book's insights on topics like schizophrenia and the 'hard problem' of consciousness. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines obscure pregnancy interventions that may improve child outcomes, rating them by evidence quality and potential impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various obscure pregnancy interventions that could potentially improve child outcomes, particularly IQ. He rates them in tiers based on evidence strength and potential impact, with Tier 1 being most strongly supported. Key interventions discussed include embryo selection, choline supplementation, avoiding stress and certain substances, and optimizing birth timing. He emphasizes these are extreme measures not meant to induce guilt, and that standard pregnancy advice is still most important. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 34 diverse and interesting links on topics ranging from historical curiosities to current scientific debates, with brief commentaries on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 34 interesting links and brief commentaries on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including historical anecdotes, scientific studies, economic theories, technological developments, and social issues. The author, Scott Alexander, provides his thoughts and sometimes skeptical analysis on many of the items. The links are diverse, ranging from a list of games Buddha wouldn't play to discussions about AI safety research opportunities. Shorter summary

Lars Doucet examines whether landlords can pass Land Value Tax on to tenants, concluding that empirical evidence supports they cannot. Longer summary

This article, written by Lars Doucet, is the second part of a series examining the empirical basis for Georgism. It focuses on the question of whether landlords can pass Land Value Tax (LVT) on to tenants. The article presents both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence, primarily from a 2017 Danish study, to support the claim that LVT cannot be passed on to tenants. It also reviews and critiques opposing viewpoints, ultimately concluding that the evidence strongly supports the full capitalization of LVT into land prices, meaning landlords bear the cost of the tax. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes ivermectin studies for COVID-19, finding most positive results likely due to methodological flaws, fraud, or confounding by parasitic infections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of ivermectin studies for COVID-19 treatment, examining methodological issues, potential fraud, and confounding factors. He concludes that ivermectin likely doesn't significantly reduce COVID mortality except potentially in areas with high parasitic worm infections. The post explores broader issues around scientific credibility, fraud detection, and public trust in science. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting links and news items from July, covering topics from science and technology to politics and culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various interesting links and news items from July. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific studies, politics, technology, economics, and culture. Scott Alexander provides brief commentary on each item, often with a mix of humor and insightful observations. Some notable topics include a study on using Botox for depression, British attitudes towards lockdowns, advances in polygenic embryo selection, and discussions on economic divergence between Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The post also includes several quirky or amusing items, such as Chinese propaganda, a topologist's map of the world, and an anecdote about a unique interpretation of the Bible. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines a review of a paper on serotonin receptors, discussing prediction error, suffering, and the effects of different serotonin receptor activations on problem-solving approaches and psychedelic experiences. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews George from CerebraLab's analysis of a paper by Nutt and Carhart-Harris on serotonin receptors. The post explores two main points: the relationship between prediction error and suffering in the context of active inference theory, and the different effects of 5-HT1A and 5-HT2A receptor activation. Scott discusses how these concepts relate to depression, psychedelics, and problem-solving approaches. He also considers George's suggestion that using psychedelics for introspection might be more harmful than using them for fun or practical problem-solving. Shorter summary