Scott travels to Medjugorje, Bosnia to investigate reports of sun miracles, witnesses one himself with his wife, and develops a naturalistic explanation involving afterimages and atmospheric conditions that explains both the Medjugorje and Fatima phenomena. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates the sun miracle at Medjugorje, Bosnia, where thousands of pilgrims report seeing the sun spin and change colors. He travels there with his wife, interviews locals, and witnesses a small-scale miracle himself. After analyzing the experience and comparing it to the famous Fatima miracle, he proposes a naturalistic explanation involving afterimages, eye damage, and specific cloud conditions. The post explores eyewitness accounts, the history of Marian apparitions at Medjugorje, and the optical physics behind the phenomenon, ultimately concluding that while impressive, the miracle can be explained through unusual but natural atmospheric conditions combined with prolonged sun-gazing. Shorter summary

The review examines Daniel Everett's 'How Language Began', which challenges Chomsky's linguistic theories and proposes an alternative view of language as a gradual cultural invention. Longer summary

This book review discusses Daniel Everett's 'How Language Began', which challenges Noam Chomsky's dominant theories in linguistics. Everett argues that language emerged gradually over a long period, is primarily for communication, and is not innate but a cultural invention. The review contrasts Everett's views with Chomsky's, detailing Everett's research with the Pirahã people and his alternative theory of language origins. It also touches on the controversy Everett's work has sparked in linguistics and its potential implications for understanding language and AI. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against significantly updating beliefs based on single dramatic events, advocating for consistent policies based on pre-existing probability distributions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against dramatically updating one's beliefs based on single events, even if they are significant. He contends that a good Bayesian should have distributions for various events and only make small updates when they occur. The post covers several examples, including COVID-19 origin theories, 9/11, mass shootings, sexual harassment scandals, and crises in the effective altruism movement. Scott suggests that while dramatic events can be useful for coordination and activism, they shouldn't significantly alter our understanding of underlying probabilities. He advocates for predicting distributions beforehand and maintaining consistent policies rather than overreacting to individual incidents. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the claim that children learn languages faster than adults, finding it partially true but more nuanced than commonly believed. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the claim that children learn languages faster than adults, finding it to be partially true but more complex than commonly believed. He explores various aspects of language acquisition, including critical periods for first language learning, age effects on second language learning, and differences in learning rates between children and adults. The post concludes that while children seem to pick up second languages faster than adults, this advantage is not as clear-cut as often thought, and factors like exposure, motivation, and declining learning rates with age play significant roles. Shorter summary

A review of Joe Henrich's 'The Weirdest People in the World', examining its argument that the Western Church's marriage regulations led to WEIRD psychology and modern economic growth. Longer summary

This book review examines Joe Henrich's 'The Weirdest People in the World', which argues that the Western Church's Marriage and Family Program (MFP) dismantled intensive kinship networks, leading to WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic) psychology and modern economic growth. The reviewer discusses the book's scientific approach to European history, its extensive coverage of various topics, and raises questions about the intentionality of historical actors and the future implications of WEIRD psychology. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a biography of Vladimir Putin, tracing his rise to power and methods of maintaining control in Russia. Longer summary

This post reviews 'The Man Without A Face: The Unlikely Rise Of Vladimir Putin' by Masha Gessen, detailing Putin's life from childhood to his rise to power in Russia. It covers his KGB career, his unexpected ascent in politics, and his methods of consolidating power, including potential involvement in apartment bombings. The review also discusses Putin's shift towards conservative values and ends with reflections on whether a similar rise to dictatorship could happen in the US. Shorter summary

A review of 'Public Citizens' by Paul Sabin, examining how Ralph Nader's public interest movement transformed American governance, with both positive and negative long-term effects. Longer summary

This book review discusses 'Public Citizens' by Paul Sabin, which explores how Ralph Nader and the public interest movement he inspired transformed American governance, leading to unintended consequences that now hinder progressive action. The review traces Nader's career from his early advocacy for auto safety to his creation of a new model of activism through litigation and regulatory pressure. It examines how this approach, while achieving significant reforms, also contributed to the current bureaucratic gridlock in American governance. The review concludes with a brief discussion of Nader's controversial role in the 2000 presidential election. Shorter summary

The review explores Jane Jacobs' economic theories from two of her books, focusing on the importance of cities in economic development and challenging conventional wisdom on separatism and large political entities. Longer summary

This review examines two books by Jane Jacobs: 'Cities and the Wealth of Nations' and 'The Question of Separatism'. The reviewer explores Jacobs' economic theories, which center on the importance of cities in economic development. Jacobs argues that cities, not nations, are the fundamental units of economic life, and that the process of import replacement is crucial for economic growth. The review also discusses Jacobs' views on separatism, currency, and the drawbacks of large political entities. The author notes that Jacobs' ideas challenge conventional wisdom across the political spectrum and suggests that her work deserves more attention in economic discourse. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Arctic Hysterias' by Edward Foulks, exploring culture-bound mental disorders among Eskimos and their decline with westernization. Longer summary

This book review examines 'The Arctic Hysterias' by Edward Foulks, which explores culture-bound mental disorders among Eskimos, particularly focusing on 'piblokto' or Arctic hysteria. The review discusses various Eskimo mental conditions, Foulks' investigations into their causes, and the decline of these disorders as Eskimo society westernizes. It also considers the cultural context, the impact of colonialism, and potential explanations for these phenomena, including comparisons to panic disorders and the effects of societal changes on mental health. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that even seemingly extreme media misinformation usually involves misleading presentation of true facts rather than outright fabrication, examining several reader-provided counterexamples. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticisms of his previous post about media rarely lying by examining several examples readers provided. He argues that even in extreme cases like Alex Jones' Sandy Hook conspiracy theories or claims about election fraud, media sources are typically highlighting true but misleading facts rather than outright fabricating information. Scott contends this matters because it means efforts to censor 'misinformation' will always require subjective judgment calls rather than being a straightforward process of removing falsehoods. He suggests people want to believe bad actors are doing something fundamentally different than good faith reasoning, but in reality most are just reasoning poorly under uncertainty. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses various perspectives on self-determination, addressing issues like status quo bias, group rights, and the complexities of applying consistent principles to secession cases. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various comments on his previous post about self-determination. He addresses issues such as the preference for status quo, the nature of group rights, the Confederate secession, international norms, historical investment, and the complexities of applying consistent principles to self-determination cases. Scott generally favors a nuanced approach that respects existing borders by default but allows for secession in cases of oppression or when it can be done peacefully, while acknowledging the difficulties in applying universal rules to such complex situations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues for a universal right to self-determination, critiquing the current paradigm of determining which groups qualify as 'peoples'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of self-determination in international politics, focusing on the case of Ukraine and Russia. He critiques the current paradigm of determining which groups qualify as 'peoples' deserving self-determination, arguing instead for a universal right to self-determination for any region large enough to feasibly be its own country. The post discusses the complexities and potential problems with this approach, including the cases of Crimea and the American Confederacy. Scott concludes that while his position leads to some controversial conclusions, it's more consistent and ethically sound than basing self-determination on subjective cultural or historical criteria. Shorter summary

Lars Doucet examines whether landlords can pass Land Value Tax on to tenants, concluding that empirical evidence supports they cannot. Longer summary

This article, written by Lars Doucet, is the second part of a series examining the empirical basis for Georgism. It focuses on the question of whether landlords can pass Land Value Tax (LVT) on to tenants. The article presents both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence, primarily from a 2017 Danish study, to support the claim that LVT cannot be passed on to tenants. It also reviews and critiques opposing viewpoints, ultimately concluding that the evidence strongly supports the full capitalization of LVT into land prices, meaning landlords bear the cost of the tax. Shorter summary

A compilation of 30 diverse links on various topics including science, history, technology, and culture, with brief commentaries by Scott Alexander. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 30 diverse links and brief discussions on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including scientific findings, historical anecdotes, technological developments, cultural phenomena, and current events. The post touches on topics such as oil spills, architecture, IQ research, chronic pain therapy, alcohol consumption, AI safety, and more. Scott Alexander provides short commentaries or explanations for each link, often adding his own insights or connecting the information to broader themes. Shorter summary

Henry George's 'Progress and Poverty' argues that private land ownership and rent cause persistent poverty, and proposes a land value tax as a solution. Longer summary

This review examines Henry George's book 'Progress and Poverty', which argues that poverty persists alongside economic progress due to private land ownership and rent-seeking. George proposes a land value tax as a solution to eliminate speculation, encourage efficient land use, and fund public goods. The review covers George's theories on wages, capital, rent, and criticisms of prevailing economic ideas like Malthusianism. Shorter summary

The review analyzes Robert Ellickson's 'Order Without Law', which argues that close-knit communities often develop welfare-maximizing social norms that supersede formal laws. Longer summary

This book review examines 'Order Without Law: How Neighbors Settle Disputes' by Robert Ellickson, which explores how social norms often supersede formal laws in close-knit communities. The review provides a detailed analysis of Ellickson's main hypothesis: that members of close-knit groups develop norms that maximize aggregate welfare in their everyday interactions. It discusses various case studies, including cattle ranchers in Shasta County and whalers, and critically examines the strengths and limitations of Ellickson's arguments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander compares political spending to the almond industry, revealing surprisingly low amounts in politics due to coordination problems. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the surprisingly low amount of money in politics compared to other industries, using the almond industry as a benchmark. He notes that all US spending on candidates, PACs, lobbying, think tanks, and advocacy organizations combined is less than the annual revenue of the almond industry. The post examines various sectors of political spending and media properties, highlighting their relatively low monetary value. Scott discusses three reasons why this is surprising: ordinary people's political engagement, wealthy individuals' interests, and corporate influence post-Citizens United. He considers potential explanations, including Ansolabehere's argument about the ineffectiveness of political spending, but ultimately suggests that coordination problems are the main factor preventing more money from entering politics. The post concludes by drawing a parallel between political spending and charitable giving, arguing that the same coordination problems affect both areas. Shorter summary

The post examines the compatibility of Islam and liberal democracy by analyzing six Muslim-majority countries, finding a wide spectrum of outcomes and concluding that Islam often acts as an obstacle to liberal democracy. Longer summary

This post examines the compatibility of Islam and liberal democracy by analyzing six Muslim-majority countries: United Arab Emirates, Tunisia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Lebanon. The authors review each country's history, constitution, democratic institutions, and human rights record to assess the extent to which liberal democracy has taken hold. They find a wide spectrum, from Tunisia's robust democracy to Iran's theocratic regime, with the other countries falling in between. The authors conclude that while it's possible for Muslim countries to adopt liberal democracy, Islam often acts as an obstacle, and most Muslim countries have only taken small steps in that direction so far. Shorter summary

TracingWoodgrains and Michael Pershan analyze the effectiveness of ability grouping, acceleration, and personalization software in serving advanced students in the education system. Longer summary

This post is an entry to the Adversarial Collaboration Contest by TracingWoodgrains and Michael Pershan, discussing whether the education system adequately serves advanced students. It examines three main approaches: ability grouping, acceleration, and personalization software. The authors review research on each approach, discuss their pros and cons, and explore the tensions between different educational goals. They conclude with practical advice for parents, educators, and educational reformers. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a wide-ranging collection of links covering science, technology, politics, economics, and culture, with brief commentary on each item. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares a collection of interesting links and news items on various topics. He discusses punding (a side effect of dopamine drugs), net neutrality in Montana, Tibetan monks' fear of death, Trump's solar panel tariffs, space exploration news, a potential tinnitus treatment, the US metric system history, NSA's core values change, a Burning Man activist's story, blockchain projects, Aristotle's puns, UK politician Jacob Rees-Mogg, arguments against open borders, new education programs, SAT score correlations, solar system geography, Amazon's entry into healthcare, pain tolerance and friendships, legal terminology origins, campus free speech issues, Twitter bots, nutrition studies, IQ test incentives, dating apps for verified Twitter users, Hitler's drug use, mindfulness research, disability insurance effects, asteroid naming conventions, and various other topics. Shorter summary

Scott shares various interesting news items and studies spanning history, science, politics, and technology, with commentary on each item's significance or irony. Longer summary

A diverse collection of interesting links and news items covering various topics. The post includes historical curiosities (like Merv being the world's largest city), scientific research (including studies about genetic risk for sugar consumption and school effects), political developments (like Steve Bannon's profile and Trump's microphone issues), technology news (AI partnership between tech giants), and social issues (discrimination studies and immigration effects). The post maintains a light, sometimes humorous tone while discussing serious subjects, often adding ironic observations about how things work. Shorter summary

Scott shares various interesting links and findings, including studies on education and IQ, brain simulation challenges, obesity surgery outcomes, and various cultural curiosities. Longer summary

This is a links post where Scott Alexander shares various interesting findings, research, and curiosities. He discusses several scientific studies, including research on education's effect on IQ from Sweden, brain simulation challenges, and obesity surgery outcomes. The post also includes various cultural and historical curiosities, like England's high tornado rate, Lenin being called a mushroom, and the Great Pyramid's eight sides. Scott provides commentary and analysis on many of the links, particularly regarding scientific research and methodology. The format is casual but informative, with Scott adding personal insights and occasional humor throughout. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering topics from science and politics to economics and culture, with commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting articles and news items. Topics range from online dating filters and education to scientific studies about anorexia and myopia. The post includes items about political news, economic research findings, and quirky historical facts. It maintains a light tone while covering both serious topics like the Ferguson case and humorous ones like Ireland accidentally legalizing drugs for 24 hours. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander cautions against basing opinions on limited research, using examples from medicine and economics to show how cherry-picking studies can lead to opposing conclusions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander warns against relying on a single study or a limited selection of studies to form opinions on complex issues. He illustrates this with examples from medical research and the minimum wage debate, showing how cherry-picking studies can lead to opposing conclusions. The post emphasizes the importance of considering the full body of evidence, including meta-analyses and expert opinions, while also being aware of potential biases in research and reporting. Scott concludes by advocating for skepticism and thorough investigation when evaluating claims backed by scientific studies. Shorter summary

Scott examines evidence for racial bias in the US criminal justice system, finding some bias in certain areas but not others, and concluding that claims of pervasive racism are overstated. Longer summary

This post analyzes racial bias in the US criminal justice system, reviewing studies on various aspects like police stops, arrests, prosecutions, and sentencing. Scott finds evidence of racial bias in some areas (e.g. capital punishment, sentence length) but little or no bias in others (e.g. arrests for violent crimes, prosecutions). He concludes that while there is some racial bias, claims of pervasive systemic racism are overstated. However, he notes that even without explicit bias, the system can still disproportionately harm black people through indirect means like drug laws or poverty-related factors. Shorter summary