Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions. Longer summary

Scott discusses the emergence of AI superforecasters that are now matching or slightly exceeding top human forecasters in prediction accuracy. He describes how these AI systems work (using scaffolding around frontier models like GPT/Claude), demonstrates their use with examples from FutureSearch and Preseen, and analyzes their performance on platforms like Metaculus where they're competing in tournaments against humans. The post explores both near-term implications (AI forecasters being easier to access than human superforecasters, potentially influencing policy and business decisions) and longer-term possibilities (AI forecasters serving as an 'opinion layer' for AI systems, transformation of prediction markets into AI-vs-AI competitions). Scott argues these developments could be genuinely beneficial, giving people access to superhuman forecasting ability just as AI threatens other aspects of society. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander rebuts Bryan Caplan's arguments about mental illness, criticizing the preference/constraint dichotomy and providing counterarguments to Caplan's claims. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Bryan Caplan's latest arguments about mental illness, criticizing Caplan's preference/constraint dichotomy and his claim that mental illnesses are just voluntary preferences. Scott argues that the distinction between preferences and constraints is not clear-cut, and that both physical and mental illnesses involve a mix of the two. He provides several counterarguments, including examples from physical illnesses, gradients of ability, and cases where the 'gun to the head' test fails. Scott also discusses how the framing of conditions as preferences or constraints depends on factors like ease of satisfaction and social norms. He concludes by rejecting Caplan's argument that one must either deny mental illness exists or classify homosexuality as a mental illness. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents evidence supporting the legitimacy of bisexual identity, explaining why many bisexuals primarily date the opposite sex despite genuine attraction to both. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the common accusation that self-identified bisexuals are faking their sexuality for trendiness. He presents statistical and biological evidence to explain why bisexuals often end up in heterosexual relationships despite genuine attraction to both sexes. The post explores dating pool sizes, social pressures, and biological arousal patterns to support the legitimacy of bisexual identity. Scott argues that as social acceptance increases, more people recognize their bisexual tendencies, even if they primarily date the opposite sex. He concludes by relating this to the original question about bisexuality and Long COVID, suggesting a possible link through neurodivergence and increased self-awareness. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander bets that AI models will quickly overcome current limitations, based on how GPT-3 improved on GPT-2's shortcomings identified by Gary Marcus. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses his prediction that AI models will quickly overcome current limitations, using examples of how GPT-3 improved on GPT-2's shortcomings. He analyzes Gary Marcus's critiques of AI capabilities, showing how many issues Marcus pointed out with GPT-2 and GPT-3 were resolved in subsequent versions. While acknowledging Marcus's expertise, Scott argues that the pattern of AI rapidly improving suggests current flaws will likely be fixed soon, though this doesn't necessarily disprove Marcus's deeper concerns about AI's true intelligence. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a book comparing international healthcare systems, finding it informative but lacking in explaining why some systems succeed while others fail. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Which Country Has The World's Best Health Care?' by Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, a book comparing healthcare systems across 11 countries. The book categorizes systems into five types, from fully socialized to mostly privatized. Emanuel reluctantly concludes that Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Taiwan have the best systems. Scott finds the book informative but criticizes its organization and limited scope. He expresses confusion about why some systems work better than others, particularly regarding drug pricing and budget setting. The review highlights the complexity of healthcare economics and the difficulty in understanding why the US system performs poorly compared to seemingly similar systems in other countries. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 37 links and interesting facts, covering topics from AI research and educational methods to historical anecdotes and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 37 diverse links and interesting facts. Topics range from politics, technology, and science to history, culture, and economics. The post includes updates on AI research, discussions of educational methods, unusual historical anecdotes, and commentary on current events. Scott Alexander presents these with his characteristic mix of curiosity, humor, and analytical insight, often adding personal thoughts or highlighting particularly intriguing aspects of each item. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It covers topics such as estimating the true number of cases, the lack of a clear endgame strategy, the effectiveness of 'flattening the curve', differentiating COVID-19 from flu symptoms, the use of anti-inflammatory drugs, ventilator shortages, disease seasonality, the need for better data, and the Bay Area's response to the crisis. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and observations. Shorter summary

This post examines the pros and cons of using gene editing technologies in humans, discussing scientific, medical, and ethical considerations. Longer summary

This post discusses the potential uses, risks, and ethical implications of gene editing technologies in humans. It covers the science behind CRISPR, its safety and efficiency, the relationship between genetics and disease, and potential applications in treating conditions like cancer and HIV. The authors explore complex questions around genetic enhancement and 'designer babies', highlighting both the promise and perils of this technology. They conclude that while gene editing holds great potential, especially for certain genetic diseases, its use must be carefully regulated and ethically considered. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting news items, scientific findings, and cultural observations, covering topics from archaeology to economics to social issues. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from various fields. It covers topics such as archaeology, economics, politics, science, technology, and social issues. The author, Scott Alexander, provides brief summaries and commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or irony. The post includes stories about unexpected discoveries, unusual historical facts, scientific developments, and cultural phenomena. It also touches on some ongoing debates in fields like healthcare economics and free speech. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and news items, covering topics from historical anecdotes to recent scientific studies and cultural trends. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from various fields. It covers topics such as historical anecdotes, scientific studies, political developments, technological innovations, and cultural trends. The author, Scott Alexander, provides brief summaries and sometimes adds his own commentary or humorous observations. The post touches on subjects like cryptocurrency, open access scientific publishing, genetic research, social media effects on polarization, and artificial intelligence developments. It also includes updates on ongoing stories and mysteries, such as the illness affecting US diplomats and the discovery of ancient skeletons in Tibet. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander uses the evolution of genetic science as a metaphor to explore how other fields might benefit from recognizing the polycausal nature of complex phenomena. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the evolution of genetic science, from the search for single genes responsible for complex traits to the current understanding that almost all genes contribute to these traits. He uses this as a metaphor for other sciences, particularly psychiatry, suggesting that many fields may be more polycausal than initially thought. The post explores the implications of this shift, including skepticism about personalized medicine and the potential need for new approaches to scientific research that can handle massive numbers of interacting causes. Scott concludes by imagining a hypothetical alien society where science is centered around polycausal scores, presenting this as a thought experiment for what science could aspire to be. Shorter summary

A collection of links covering topics from drug regulation and genetic testing to tax reform and AI developments, with Scott's commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a wide-ranging links post covering various news items and studies. Topics include FDA regulations and drug pricing, genetic testing advances, Russian Facebook ads from the 2016 election, studies on education and intelligence, tax reform effects on graduate students, and various scientific developments. The post moves quickly between topics, providing brief commentary and often linking to additional sources. Several items focus on medical and healthcare issues, from insulin prices to studies on pain medication effectiveness. The post maintains Scott's characteristic mix of intellectual curiosity and light humor throughout. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering medical research, sociology, politics, and technology, with brief commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting articles, studies and news items. Topics range from medical research (drug expiration dates, depression treatments) to sociology (class in China, runner demographics) to politics (neoliberalism, Israel boycott laws) to technology (AI language models, genetic engineering). The post maintains a somewhat informal tone while discussing academic papers and news items, often adding brief commentary or context to help understand the significance of each link. Shorter summary

A Links post presenting various news items and articles, ranging from cultural curiosities like the multiocular O to scientific findings about brain sex differences and genetic research, along with commentary on current events and politics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of interesting links and articles covering a wide range of topics. The post includes scientific findings (like research on sex differences in the brain and studies on antidepressants), cultural curiosities (like rare Cyrillic letters), political developments (like the White House's decision on Exxon drilling rights), and various technological advances (like an AI that writes poetry). The post provides brief commentary on each link, often with Scott's characteristically analytical and sometimes humorous perspective on the implications of each item. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links and studies on various topics, from bad statistics and media coverage to technological progress and scientific discoveries, with commentary from Scott Alexander. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, presenting a diverse collection of interesting articles, studies, and developments. The topics range from media coverage and politics, through scientific studies and technological progress, to social developments and cultural phenomena. Scott provides commentary on many of the links, often adding context, questioning methodology, or highlighting interesting implications. The post maintains a mix of serious academic content and lighter cultural observations. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links and brief commentary spanning topics from scientific research to cultural phenomena, including updates on various studies challenging previous beliefs. Longer summary

This is a links post containing short summaries and comments on various news, studies, and interesting articles. Topics covered include gun violence research, genetic studies, college admissions and tuition, nutrition science, criminal justice reform, and cultural effects. Scott discusses new research challenging previous beliefs about bilingualism and drug side effects, shares interesting discoveries about religious effects on society, and provides updates on various scientific and technological developments. The post also includes commentary on political developments, interesting place names, and various cultural phenomena. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links spanning topics from CRISPR technology to economic studies, with Scott's commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting articles and studies across multiple domains. Scott shares updates on CRISPR technology, corporate governance issues, demographic claims about Bernie Sanders supporters, studies about gender bias, and various economic research. The post includes both lighter observations (like different views of the White House) and serious academic papers about genetics, intelligence, and economic development. The format is typical of SSC links posts, with brief commentary on each link and occasional humorous asides. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering science, education, politics and culture, with Scott Alexander's commentary and analysis on each. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting articles and studies. Notable topics include: an IQ study predicting US gains, a social site called Omnilibrium trying to improve filtering, FDA allowing 23andMe genetic tests at higher prices, evidence about pre-K education having potentially negative effects, and news about polio eradication. The post also covers topics like genetic engineering in China, studies about police reducing crime, and cultural analysis of urban violence. Many links come with Scott's brief commentary or analysis putting them in context. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting links covering politics, science, history, and culture, with brief commentary on each item. Longer summary

A curated collection of interesting links spanning various topics, compiled by Scott Alexander. The post covers a wide range of subjects including political events, scientific studies, historical anecdotes, and cultural phenomena. Among the notable items are stories about medieval fighting myths, a massive Chinese ghost mall, Japanese parliament members' nationalism, and various statistical studies. The post maintains a light, often humorous tone while presenting these diverse pieces of information, occasionally adding brief commentary or connections between different items. Shorter summary