Scott Alexander attempts to replicate a poll claiming high rates of COVID vaccine deaths, finds much lower rates, and concludes such polls are unreliable due to bias.

Scott Alexander critiques Lyman Stone's arguments against Effective Altruism, defending the movement's impact, methodology, and philosophical foundations.

Scott Alexander examines the effectiveness of education by analyzing knowledge retention, questioning the value of schooling beyond basic skills.

Scott Alexander shares the results of the 2024 Astral Codex Ten survey, providing access to data and promising future analyses.

Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters.

Scott Alexander uses simulations to explain why seemingly counterintuitive arguments against the genetic basis of schizophrenia are misleading.

Scott Alexander examines recent studies on the Fraternal Birth Order Effect, finding evidence for a broader sibling birth order effect on homosexuality, though its exact nature and mechanism remain debated.

Scott Alexander discusses reader comments on his post about dating preferences, covering various perspectives and addressing critiques of 'dating docs'.

Scott Alexander argues that describable dating preferences are valuable, despite studies suggesting otherwise, by pointing out flaws in research and emphasizing real-world evidence.

Scott Alexander explores the difficulties in contextualizing statistics, providing numerous examples to show how the same data can be presented to seem significant or trivial.

Scott Alexander investigates the 'wisdom of crowds' hypothesis using survey data, exploring its effectiveness and potential applications.

Scott Alexander argues that selection bias, while a concern, is not a valid reason to automatically reject amateur online surveys, as professional studies also face similar limitations.

Scott Alexander shares 33 diverse links on topics ranging from history and science to technology and politics, offering brief summaries and commentary on each.

Scott Alexander critiques a study claiming cash payments to poor mothers increased infant brain function, highlighting statistical and methodological issues that undermine its positive conclusions.

Scott Alexander examines two cases of multiple hypothesis testing problems in medical and social science research, highlighting the complexities in interpreting results.

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2020 predictions, finding he was generally overconfident, and discusses the implications for his prediction-making process.

Scott Alexander examines the relationship between handedness, authoritarianism, and cognitive flexibility, finding unexpected results that contradict a recent study.

Scott Alexander reviews Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile', which explores the concept of benefiting from disorder across various domains and critiques modern attempts to reduce volatility.

Scott Alexander reviews and responds to reader comments on various topics from his March Links post, providing additional context and clarifications.

Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations.

Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made by himself and two others in April 2020, discussing the results and their implications for forecasting.

Scott Alexander critically evaluates the evidence for Vitamin D's role in COVID-19 prevention and treatment, ultimately leaning towards skepticism while acknowledging the low risk of supplementation.

Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a series focusing on prediction markets, and discusses several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19.

Scott Alexander examines taxometrics in psychiatry, finding that most mental health conditions are dimensional rather than categorical, and discusses the implications for diagnosis and treatment.

Scott Alexander examines the history, chemistry, and efficacy of various amphetamine-based ADHD medications, comparing their strengths and weaknesses.