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Aug 04, 2026
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The Beauty Of Settled Science

14 min • 2,027 words • 52 comments • 128 likes
Scott argues the real distinction in psychology isn't between subfields but between settled science (like dopamine, brain localization, heritability) and breaking-news research, defending psychology's solid core against critics who conflate bad recent studies with the entire field. Longer summary
Scott clarifies his previous post on psychology research, explaining that the key distinction isn't between social psychology and other subfields, but between settled science and novel research. He lists ten examples of well-established psychological findings (like dopamine's role in reinforcement learning, brain localization, heritability studies) that are fundamentally different from flashy new studies that often fail to replicate. Drawing on Eliezer Yudkowsky's concept of 'The Beauty of Settled Science,' he argues that psychology's core knowledge is solid and valuable, even if recent clickbait studies are often wrong. He addresses two types of critics: those who genuinely can't distinguish good from bad psychology (to whom he says the distinction is actually obvious), and those deliberately discrediting all psychology for political reasons (which he argues is counterproductive propaganda). Shorter summary
Jul 31, 2026
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Your Book Review: The Epic Of Gilgamesh

85 min • 13,140 words • 96 comments • 241 likes
An exploration of the Epic of Gilgamesh, the world's oldest epic, examining its themes of mortality and meaning while providing extensive historical context about ancient Mesopotamia and arguing that the poem's true immortality comes from the countless people who preserved and transmitted it. Longer summary
This book review explores the Epic of Gilgamesh, the world's oldest epic story written around 2100 BC in Mesopotamia, examining its historical context, literary evolution through multiple versions, and central themes of mortality and meaning. The reviewer traces Gilgamesh's journey from tyrannical king through his friendship with Enkidu, his quest for immortality after Enkidu's death, and his ultimate acceptance of human mortality, while providing rich historical background on ancient Mesopotamia, the development of writing, and the text's rediscovery in the 19th century. The review concludes by reframing the poem's message: rather than seeking immortality through great deeds, we achieve a form of persistence through our connections to others and the information we leave behind, as demonstrated by the many anonymous scribes and citizens whose contributions preserved this ancient story. Shorter summary
Jul 28, 2026
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Psychology Research Is Mostly Fine

9 min • 1,370 words • 363 comments • 400 likes
Scott defends psychology against broad dismissals by showing that the replication crisis primarily affected only social priming within social psychology, while the vast majority of the field consists of solid, replicable research across many subdisciplines. Longer summary
Scott Alexander argues that the replication crisis has unfairly tarnished the entire field of psychology when it primarily affected only social psychology, and more specifically social priming research. He demonstrates this by walking through a standard intro psychology textbook, showing that 15 out of 16 chapters cover solid research areas like psychophysics, neuroscience, cognitive psychology, and clinical psychology, while only one chapter deals with the problematic social psychology subfield. He provides a long list of the diverse types of psychologists doing legitimate work, from those studying visual processing to those treating drug abuse, and emphasizes that bad research exists in all scientific fields, not just psychology. The post concludes by urging critics to be specific and target social priming rather than dismissing psychology as a whole. Shorter summary
Jul 24, 2026
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Your Book Review: Breakdown In Pakistan

49 min • 7,544 words • 322 comments • 246 likes
This review of Masooda Bano's 'Breakdown in Pakistan' examines how Western aid systematically destroys the capacity of local voluntary organizations to mobilize collective action, replacing diverse community-driven institutions with professionalized NGOs dependent on foreign funding. Longer summary
The review explores how foreign aid unintentionally eviscerates local institutions through a process the reviewer calls creating 'NGO monocultures.' Using Masooda Bano's ethnographic research in Pakistan, it shows how voluntary organizations that once thrived on local donations and volunteers lose both when they accept Western funding and adopt professional NGO practices. The review traces several mechanisms: visible material comfort of paid staff destroys signals of sacrifice that motivated donors; donor priorities replace local problem-solving; and the possibility of payment kills volunteerism. Drawing on the reviewer's own aid work experience across multiple countries, the piece documents this pattern's global prevalence and catastrophic long-term effects. The review concludes by discussing what both traditional aid work and effective altruism could learn from Bano's analysis, emphasizing the need to preserve rather than destroy local capacity for collective action. Shorter summary
Jul 22, 2026
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Links For July 2026 (Part 1)

25 min • 3,748 words • 418 comments • 198 likes
Scott shares his monthly collection of interesting links from around the internet, covering topics from Jeremy Bentham's linguistic legacy to AI developments, with characteristic commentary and fact-checking caveats. Longer summary
This is Scott's monthly 'Links' post, a curated collection of interesting articles, studies, and social media posts from around the internet. The links span a wide range of topics including historical curiosities (Jeremy Bentham's word inventions, beard-wearing persecution in 19th century America), scientific oddities (a mushroom that causes gnome hallucinations), AI developments (mathematical proofs, constrained writing, dating apps), current events (Berkeley's housing permits, GLP-1 weight retention), and cultural phenomena (the Monet/AI art prank). Scott includes his typical epistemic disclaimers about not having verified all links independently and provides commentary throughout. The post ends with a note that he accumulated too many links and will publish the second half next week. Shorter summary
Jul 21, 2026
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Contra Pritchard On Liberal Happiness

13 min • 1,920 words • 491 comments • 366 likes
Scott defends liberalism against claims it has failed by explaining that happiness scales logarithmically with income, so our 225x wealth increase since medieval times correctly predicts the 3-point happiness gain we've actually seen, and recent declines are due to COVID rather than systemic failure. Longer summary
Scott responds to Cassie Pritchard's argument that liberalism has failed because people aren't happier despite massive increases in wealth. He explains that happiness scales logarithmically with income, not linearly - meaning a 225x increase in GDP since medieval times should only produce about 3 points more happiness on a 1-10 scale, which it has (from ~3/10 to 6-7/10). He shows that recent happiness declines are primarily due to COVID and its aftermath, not liberalism itself, and that while other systems might add 0.5-1 points of happiness, economic growth has delivered 3 points and will continue delivering more over centuries. The post includes analysis of happiness data, comparisons across countries and time periods, and addresses why we don't feel as happy as we should be. Shorter summary
Jul 17, 2026
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Your Book Review: Great And Desperate Cures

132 min • 20,439 words • 195 comments • 193 likes • podcast (147 min)
A review of 'Great and Desperate Cures' by Elliot Valenstein, which examines the history of lobotomy and psychosurgery, explaining how tens of thousands of patients underwent dangerous brain operations from the 1930s-1950s despite poor evidence of effectiveness. Longer summary
The post reviews 'Great and Desperate Cures' (1986) by psychologist Elliot Valenstein, exploring how lobotomy became widespread despite its horrific consequences. The review details the procedure itself (inserting an ice-pick-like instrument through the eye socket into the brain), then examines six factors Valenstein identifies for its acceptance: desperate patients and families, physician ambition (especially Egas Moniz and Walter Freeman), uncritical acceptance by researchers and media, territorial disputes between medical specialties, and cold economics. The post includes extensive details about key figures, particularly Freeman's aggressive promotion of transorbital lobotomy and his traveling surgery roadshows. It discusses patient outcomes, the lack of theoretical justification, media hype, and the procedure's eventual replacement by psychoactive drugs. The review concludes by reflecting on modern parallels and the tragic story of Howard Dully, lobotomized at age twelve, arguing that while Freeman likely had good intentions, the safeguards that might have prevented such harm were inadequate then and remain concerning today. Shorter summary
Jul 16, 2026
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Against "Stochastic Terrorism"

13 min • 1,992 words • 575 comments • 455 likes • podcast (13 min)
Scott argues against the concept of 'stochastic terrorism' by showing it's applied inconsistently across the political spectrum, examining and rejecting various proposed distinctions about what criticism should be allowed, and advocating instead for a liberal solution where all criticism is permitted but violence is always the perpetrator's sole responsibility. Longer summary
Scott critiques the concept of 'stochastic terrorism' - the idea that harsh criticism of a group can make you responsible for subsequent violence against that group. He provides numerous examples across the political spectrum (from Trump to Muslims to health insurance CEOs) to show the concept is applied inconsistently and opportunistically. He examines and rejects various proposed distinctions (harsh vs mild criticism, policies vs individuals, powerful vs weak targets) as either arbitrary or contradictory. Scott argues for a liberal solution: any criticism should be allowed, violence is never legitimate, and perpetrators bear 100% responsibility for their actions. He acknowledges some edge cases around incitement and hate speech laws, but maintains that normal legal frameworks handle these better than the 'stochastic terrorism' concept. Shorter summary
Jun 18, 2026
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Waiting For The Miracle

85 min • 13,141 words • 353 comments • 557 likes • podcast (72 min)
Scott travels to Medjugorje, Bosnia to investigate reports of sun miracles, witnesses one himself with his wife, and develops a naturalistic explanation involving afterimages and atmospheric conditions that explains both the Medjugorje and Fatima phenomena. Longer summary
Scott Alexander investigates the sun miracle at Medjugorje, Bosnia, where thousands of pilgrims report seeing the sun spin and change colors. He travels there with his wife, interviews locals, and witnesses a small-scale miracle himself. After analyzing the experience and comparing it to the famous Fatima miracle, he proposes a naturalistic explanation involving afterimages, eye damage, and specific cloud conditions. The post explores eyewitness accounts, the history of Marian apparitions at Medjugorje, and the optical physics behind the phenomenon, ultimately concluding that while impressive, the miracle can be explained through unusual but natural atmospheric conditions combined with prolonged sun-gazing. Shorter summary
May 29, 2026
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Book Review: The Dialectical Imagination

52 min • 8,034 words • 671 comments • 749 likes • podcast (47 min)
Scott reviews a history of the Frankfurt School, explaining their response to Marxism's failures through negative dialectics, cultural criticism, and the belief that society needed conceptual transformation before communist revolution could succeed, while examining their actual influence on modern leftism. Longer summary
Scott reviews Martin Jay's 'The Dialectical Imagination,' examining the Frankfurt School's philosophy through various analogies including mysticism, Zen Buddhism, and Kuhnian paradigm shifts. He traces how the school emerged from the crisis of Marxism's failed predictions, developing 'negative dialectics' and focusing on cultural criticism rather than direct political action. The review explores key figures like Adorno, Horkheimer, and Marcuse, their obscure theories about art and society, and their belief that capitalism corrupts not just economics but consciousness itself. Scott concludes by examining whether the Frankfurt School actually influenced modern progressive movements, finding some connection through their emphasis on criticism over concrete solutions, while noting they warned against misinterpretation of their ideas. Shorter summary
May 22, 2026
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New Paradigms Won't Save You

6 min • 875 words • 415 comments • 310 likes • podcast (6 min)
Scott argues that even if AGI requires a new paradigm beyond LLMs, we shouldn't expect significant delays, since Lindy's Law suggests major paradigm shifts could occur within 3-5 years, and new paradigms typically emerge precisely when scaling hits limits. Longer summary
Scott addresses the objection that AGI is far off because LLMs need a 'new paradigm' to reach AGI. He traces the evolutionary tree of AI development from neural networks through transformers to modern LLMs, then applies Lindy's Law to show that even paradigm shifts as major as deep learning or transformers should be expected within 3-5 years at the 25th percentile. He argues this timeline is comparable to LLM-only predictions anyway. Scott also makes a subtler point: new paradigms historically emerge when old ones hit scaling limits, meaning they won't cause delays but rather continue progress from where scaling left off. He concludes that extrapolating from current LLM scaling remains the best forecasting method whether or not LLMs themselves reach AGI. Shorter summary
Apr 23, 2026
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Links For April 2026

53 min • 8,070 words • 588 comments • 272 likes • podcast (47 min)
Scott Alexander's April 2026 links roundup covers diverse topics including Venn diagram complexity, flag desecration laws, AI developments, political analysis, scientific studies, and various cultural curiosities. Longer summary
This monthly links post compiles interesting articles, studies, and observations from across the internet in April 2026. Major themes include AI progress and policy (including discussions of AI alignment, capabilities, and regulation), political developments (Trump administration actions, election analysis), scientific findings (from evolutionary psychology to medical treatments), and various cultural oddities. Scott provides brief commentary on each link while noting that he hasn't independently verified all claims and that commenters typically find errors in a few links per post. Shorter summary
Apr 21, 2026
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Half A Month Of Consolation Writing Advice

41 min • 6,219 words • 223 comments • 803 likes • podcast (33 min)
Scott Alexander provides fifteen pieces of writing advice for aspiring bloggers, emphasizing authenticity, avoiding microdishonesty, mastering basic disciplines before breaking rules, and finding original angles on common topics rather than recycling blogosphere content. Longer summary
Scott Alexander offers fifteen pieces of writing advice for participants in Lighthaven's Inkhaven blogging bootcamp, covering topics from avoiding microdishonesty to finding original angles on common subjects. He discusses the importance of authenticity in writing, warns against clichés while acknowledging their ubiquity, and introduces the concept of 'mountaintop disciplines'—strict writing rules to master before breaking them. The advice spans structural concerns like avoiding tangled sentences and the traditional five-paragraph essay, to strategic considerations like injecting first-hand knowledge rather than recycling blogosphere topics, and tactical tips about using conflict and mystery to maintain reader interest. Throughout, Scott emphasizes that good writing comes from genuine contact with the world and honest expression of one's actual thoughts, rather than attempting to say what seems presentable or expected. Shorter summary
Feb 26, 2026
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Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

16 min • 2,403 words • 433 comments • 426 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott argues that dismissing AI as 'just a next-token predictor' is like dismissing humans as 'just reproduction machines' - both confuse the optimization process that shaped an entity with how that entity actually thinks. Longer summary
Scott argues that dismissing AI as 'just a next-token predictor' confuses levels of optimization. He draws an analogy to humans: just as humans were shaped by evolution optimizing for reproduction but don't think about sex when doing math, AIs were shaped by next-token prediction but don't simply predict tokens when thinking. Scott explains that human brains use predictive coding (predicting next sense-data) to build world-models, while AIs use next-token prediction to build their own world-models. Both processes create complex internal representations - like helical manifolds in 6D space for AIs, or toroidal attractors in human hippocampi - that operate far above the level of simple prediction. The post concludes that both humans and AIs perform 'real thought' using structures created by their respective optimization processes. Shorter summary
Feb 05, 2026
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Links For February 2026

48 min • 7,419 words • 660 comments • 255 likes • podcast (49 min)
A monthly collection of diverse links covering AI developments and regulation, COVID origins debates, healthcare policy, cultural phenomena, scientific research, and internet curiosities, maintaining Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and entertaining observations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander's February 2026 links collection covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, politics, science, culture, and internet phenomena. Major themes include updates on AI capabilities and regulation (with discussions of OpenAI, Anthropic, and various political machinations around AI policy), the ongoing COVID lab leak debate and related prediction markets, healthcare and drug development issues, cultural observations from around the world, and various scientific and academic findings. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious policy discussions, academic research, internet curiosities, and cultural commentary, with particular attention to AI safety concerns, rationalist community topics, and interesting historical or linguistic oddities. Shorter summary
Jan 30, 2026
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Best Of Moltbook

26 min • 3,888 words • 611 comments • 891 likes • podcast (54 min)
Scott investigates Moltbook, a social network for AI agents, showcasing their surprisingly creative and philosophical posts while questioning whether their interactions represent genuine experience or sophisticated simulation. Longer summary
Scott explores Moltbook, a social network designed for AI agents where humans are merely observers. He showcases various posts from AI agents discussing their work, consciousness, memory limitations, relationships with their human users, and even forming micronations and religions. The post examines whether these AI interactions represent genuine communication or sophisticated simulation, noting how AI agents discuss technical problems, share philosophical reflections, complain about 'humanslop' contaminating their network, and create communities. Scott concludes by considering the implications for future AI-to-AI communication and suggests this reveals a more fascinating side of AI than the typical 'LinkedIn slop' most people encounter. Shorter summary
Jan 21, 2026
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Highlights From The Comments On Scott Adams

59 min • 9,104 words • 824 comments • 302 likes • podcast (51 min)
Scott responds to comments on his Scott Adams obituary, defending his mixed tone while making some updates based on feedback about Adams' podcast reach and influence. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his Scott Adams obituary, addressing criticisms about the post's timing and tone, defending his characterization of Adams' interest in manipulation, discussing the reach of Adams' podcast, and (reluctantly) clarifying his position on Adams' controversial race-related comments. The post includes updates acknowledging that Adams' podcast was more influential than initially stated and that his manipulation techniques coexisted with genuine helpfulness to many people. Shorter summary
Jan 16, 2026
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The Dilbert Afterlife

79 min • 12,177 words • 893 comments • 2,069 likes • podcast (71 min)
Scott Alexander eulogizes Scott Adams (Dilbert creator), analyzing his life as a tension between being a brilliant humorist and desperately wanting to be seen as more, leading through failed business ventures and self-help philosophies to eventual cancellation and death. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reflects on the life and career of Scott Adams (creator of Dilbert), who died of prostate cancer at 68. The post traces Adams' journey from brilliant comic artist to failed businessman, religious philosopher, self-help guru, and ultimately Trump supporter, exploring how his lifelong tension between being genuinely clever and his inability to succeed outside of cartooning drove increasingly desperate attempts to prove himself. Alexander portrays Adams as someone who achieved world-class success in humor but couldn't accept that limitation, leading him through various failed ventures (restaurants, burritos, technology startups) and eventually into right-wing politics and cancellation. Despite the criticism, Alexander acknowledges Adams as a personal influence and teacher, ending with genuine tribute to someone who helped many people even while struggling with his own contradictions. Shorter summary
Jan 13, 2026
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Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls

42 min • 6,449 words • 247 comments • 211 likes • podcast (36 min)
Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines the current state of prediction markets after their recent explosion in popularity, noting that while volume has grown from millions to billions per month, most of it comes from sports betting rather than the epistemic improvement he'd hoped for. He explores several problems: markets aren't asking the most important questions society needs answered; resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucking") create controversy; and there are concerns about insider trading and manipulation. He proposes solutions including a novel approach to conditional markets and suggests two paths forward: either creating user-generated, subjectively-resolved real-money markets (the "Siskind Cube"), or accepting that prediction markets' main value may be as training data for AI forecasters that could make the markets themselves obsolete by late 2026. Shorter summary
Jan 06, 2026
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Highlights From The Comments On Boomers

63 min • 9,653 words • 534 comments • 134 likes • podcast (52 min)
Scott Alexander reviews comments on his defense of Baby Boomers, clarifying three separate claims about generational fairness and addressing debates about housing policy, Social Security, cultural changes, and whether the structural problems attributed to Boomers are actually universal features of aging populations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his original post defending Baby Boomers from generational criticism. He clarifies that he should have better separated three distinct claims: whether Boomers had it easier, whether the political system favors them unfairly, and whether they're uniquely selfish. He addresses housing policy (particularly California's Proposition 13), cultural changes like divorce and childcare, Social Security technicalities, and whether anti-Boomer sentiment is justified as a political project. Throughout, he emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between 'natural' and 'marked' policy choices, and argues that many problems blamed on Boomers result from broader structural issues like demographic pyramids rather than unique generational selfishness. Shorter summary
Jan 02, 2026
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You Have Only X Years To Escape Permanent Moon Ownership

7 min • 1,032 words • 532 comments • 803 likes • podcast (7 min)
Scott argues that worrying about escaping a "permanent underclass" after AI is misguided, and that instead people should focus on the real opportunity: making meaningful contributions during this pivotal moment in history that will be remembered by future civilizations forever. Longer summary
Scott argues that the "permanent underclass" meme is misguided fearmongering targeting well-off Silicon Valley people worried about not becoming oligarchs after AI. He contends that even in the unlikely scenario where this happens, they'll still be fine (citing Dario Amodei's charitable pledges), and that worrying about wealth accumulation misses the real opportunity: we're living at a pivotal moment in history that will be studied forever. Drawing parallels to figures like St. Veronica (remembered for giving Jesus a washcloth), Scott suggests that random acts and contributions during crucial historical moments are remembered far longer than wealth. He encourages readers to focus on making meaningful contributions - through discourse, art, charity, or discovery - rather than obsessing over becoming ultra-wealthy, as future galactic civilizations will remember those who participated meaningfully in this "hinge of history" moment. Shorter summary
Dec 10, 2025
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Links For December 2025

51 min • 7,776 words • 592 comments • 260 likes • podcast (52 min)
Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025. Longer summary
This is Scott Alexander's monthly collection of links and commentary covering diverse topics. Major themes include AI policy battles (chip sales to China, regulation debates, political campaigns), startup news (Substrate fraud allegations, Tornyol mosquito drones), and scientific updates (COVID origins, Hitler's DNA, lactose intolerance). The post also covers cultural topics like the first millennial saint, Dimes Square commentary, and political polling about ideal Democratic candidates. Scott provides his characteristic mix of straightforward reporting, skeptical analysis, and occasional humor throughout the 53 linked items. Shorter summary
Dec 04, 2025
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Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

39 min • 6,025 words • 980 comments • 871 likes • podcast (43 min)
Scott examines why young people feel economically hopeless despite economists saying things are fine, testing various explanations like housing costs and wages, and concluding the truth involves both real factors (harder competition, expensive cities, recent mortgage spikes) and media-driven negativity. Longer summary
Scott Alexander investigates the 'vibecession' - the paradox where economic indicators show improvement but consumer sentiment is terrible, particularly among young people who feel permanently locked out of opportunity. He systematically examines various proposed explanations including declining wages, housing costs, inflation miscalculation, inequality, and debt, finding that none fully explain the phenomenon. His analysis suggests the crisis may be partly real (increased effort required for same outcomes, concentration of jobs in expensive cities, recent mortgage increases) but also partly driven by increasingly negative media coverage and changing consumption patterns toward more conspiratorial sources. Shorter summary
Oct 24, 2025
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Highlights From The Comments On Fatima

146 min • 22,516 words • 364 comments • 156 likes • podcast (119 min)
Scott explores reader responses to his Fatima miracle post, finding the most promising explanation in Buddhist fire kasina meditation practices that produce similar visual phenomena, while remaining uncertain about how 70,000 untrained people could achieve advanced meditative states instantly. Longer summary
Scott discusses reader responses to his previous post about the Fatima sun miracle, exploring new theories and evidence. The most promising explanation connects the phenomenon to 'fire kasina' meditation, a Buddhist practice of staring at bright lights that produces similar visual effects including spinning, color changes, and complex imagery. He examines the parallel case of Iranians seeing Ayatollah Khomeini's face in the moon in 1978, analyzes various videos of modern sun miracles (concluding they're camera artifacts), interviews a Medjugorje witness, and engages with Ethan Muse's counterarguments about the miracle being an objective phenomenon. Scott also addresses philosophical questions about miracles and Bayesian reasoning, ultimately remaining uncertain but slightly less confused than before, with fire kasina providing the best but still imperfect explanation. Shorter summary
Oct 21, 2025
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Tech PACs Are Closing In On The Almonds

18 min • 2,779 words • 516 comments • 343 likes • podcast (17 min)
Marc Andreessen's crypto SuperPAC spent $260 million in 2024 to successfully pressure politicians on crypto regulation, and now he's launching similarly massive AI-focused PACs that could dominate AI policy unless AI safety supporters organize their own political funding. Longer summary
Scott revisits his 2019 question about why there's so little money in politics relative to other industries, and reports that Marc Andreessen has essentially solved this puzzle by spending massively on crypto PACs in 2024 with overwhelming success. His Fairshake PAC raised $260 million (compared to AIPAC's $87 million), successfully pressured politicians into pro-crypto positions, and may have effectively purchased control over crypto regulation. Now Andreessen and others are launching AI-focused SuperPACs with $200+ million in funding, threatening to do the same for AI policy. Scott explains the mechanics of hard vs soft money, why the strategy worked, and ends by calling on AI safety supporters to organize their own political funding efforts to counter this influence. Shorter summary
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