Scott reviews Ashlee Vance's 2015 Elon Musk biography, analyzing Musk's personality, work ethic, and business strategies to understand his successes and controversies. Longer summary

This book review analyzes Ashlee Vance's 2015 biography of Elon Musk, examining Musk's personality, work ethic, and business strategies. The review explores Musk's engineering abilities, management style, and the reasons behind his companies' successes despite controversial decisions. It discusses Musk's intense focus, his tendency to set unrealistic timelines, and his impact on employees. The review also touches on Musk's social skills, his approach to PR, and speculates on his future success with Twitter/X. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 38 links and news items, covering topics from book reviews and religious history to AI developments and political trends, with brief summaries and comments on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 38 diverse links and news items covering topics such as book reviews, religious history, economic forecasts, libertarianism, crime statistics, scientific studies, AI developments, educational policies, and political trends. Scott Alexander provides brief summaries or comments on each item, often with a mix of factual information and his own perspective. The links range from academic studies to social media posts, covering current events, historical anecdotes, and ongoing debates in various fields. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that even seemingly extreme media misinformation usually involves misleading presentation of true facts rather than outright fabrication, examining several reader-provided counterexamples. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticisms of his previous post about media rarely lying by examining several examples readers provided. He argues that even in extreme cases like Alex Jones' Sandy Hook conspiracy theories or claims about election fraud, media sources are typically highlighting true but misleading facts rather than outright fabricating information. Scott contends this matters because it means efforts to censor 'misinformation' will always require subjective judgment calls rather than being a straightforward process of removing falsehoods. He suggests people want to believe bad actors are doing something fundamentally different than good faith reasoning, but in reality most are just reasoning poorly under uncertainty. Shorter summary

A review of Ray Huang's '1587, A Year of No Significance', examining the decline of the Ming dynasty through the lens of an apparently uneventful year. Longer summary

This book review examines '1587, A Year of No Significance: The Ming Dynasty in Decline' by Ray Huang. The reviewer details the book's exploration of a seemingly uneventful year in Ming dynasty China, highlighting how it exemplifies the systemic inertia and decline of the empire. The review covers key figures like the Wan-Li Emperor, Grand Secretaries Chang and Shen, and other notable individuals, while drawing parallels to other historical contexts and discussing the broader implications of the Ming dynasty's governance style and eventual fall. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and grades his predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, covering topics from Trump's base diversity to the likelihood of a coup. He analyzes his successes and failures, discussing his performance on prediction markets and his overall accuracy compared to average pundits. Scott concludes that he did about average in his predictions, with some notable successes in race-related predictions and on prediction markets, but also made mistakes in overestimating Trump's competence and underestimating his continued support from Republicans. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander maintains a list of significant mistakes in his blog posts, providing corrections and updates in reverse chronological order. Longer summary

Scott Alexander maintains a list of significant mistakes he has made in his blog posts, providing corrections and updates. He acknowledges errors in data interpretation, misunderstandings of studies, incorrect predictions, and instances where he changed his mind based on new evidence or reader feedback. The list is presented in reverse chronological order and covers a wide range of topics including medicine, economics, psychology, and social issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response. Longer summary

This post covers various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdown effectiveness, heterogeneity in infection rates across countries, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations. Scott discusses cell phone data showing limited impact of official lockdowns, explores reasons for varying infection/mortality rates between countries, and highlights the role of speaking/singing in virus transmission. He also examines coronavirus prediction markets, questions the long-term sustainability of lockdowns, and ponders how to quantify the severity of COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes. The post concludes with numerous short updates and links on coronavirus-related topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on billionaire philanthropy, addressing criticisms while ultimately defending its net positive impact and arguing to protect the most effective charitable efforts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about billionaire philanthropy. He addresses criticisms and counterarguments, providing further analysis on topics like the scale of billionaire donations compared to political spending, the democratic nature of philanthropy, tax deductibility, and potential downsides. While acknowledging some valid concerns, Scott ultimately defends the net positive impact of billionaire philanthropy, especially highlighting examples like the Gates Foundation's global health work. He argues that even if some billionaire philanthropy is problematic, the most effective charitable efforts are so valuable that they should be protected and encouraged. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of links and brief commentary on topics ranging from historical anecdotes to recent scientific studies and political developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and brief commentary on diverse topics. It covers historical anecdotes, scientific studies, political developments, and cultural phenomena. The post touches on subjects like vegetarian activism, Supreme Court changes, AI alignment, and Silicon Valley culture. Scott Alexander provides concise summaries and occasional personal opinions on these wide-ranging topics, often with a touch of humor or irony. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that accusations of Trump being an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are exaggerated and harmful, and calls for more measured criticism of Trump's actual flaws. Longer summary

In this post, Scott Alexander argues that accusations of racism and white supremacy against Donald Trump and his supporters are exaggerated and harmful. He contends that while Trump has said and done problematic things, claims that he is an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are not supported by evidence. Alexander reviews various arguments about Trump's alleged racism and rebuts them, citing statistics and providing context. He argues that treating Trump as uniquely racist compared to past presidents is inaccurate and counterproductive. The post ends with a call to stop 'crying wolf' about racism, as it causes unnecessary fear and may desensitize people to real instances of racism in the future. Alexander makes several predictions about what will happen under a Trump presidency to back up his argument. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering various topics from scientific studies, social issues, and current events, including problems with brain imaging studies, AI safety developments, and surprising research findings. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts where he shares and briefly comments on interesting articles and studies he's found. The post covers diverse topics including medical research critique (particularly brain imaging and psychiatric studies), current events (like the Chinese government's actions against Buddhist monks), and technological developments in AI safety. Scott adds his characteristic analytical commentary to many of the links, pointing out surprising implications or potential flaws in the studies. The format is casual but informative, with Scott often expressing personal opinions or humorous observations about the material he's sharing. Shorter summary

A links roundup post covering recent developments in science, medicine, psychology and politics, with particular focus on research replication issues and the 2016 election season. Longer summary

This is a links roundup post covering various recent research findings, news, and developments. It covers topics from toxoplasma research, drug trials, and scientific replication crises to politics and social issues. The post discusses several important developments in psychology including failed replications of established theories like ego depletion, updates on clinical trials and drug research, and various political developments around the 2016 election season. It maintains a light tone while discussing serious academic and scientific topics, including several meta-analyses and study critiques. Shorter summary

Scott shares a diverse collection of interesting links spanning science, history, and current events, with commentary on research methodologies and unexpected findings. Longer summary

A collection of interesting links and studies across various topics. The post covers scientific studies (like ego depletion and male variability), historical curiosities (like Russian Somalia and Project Oilsand), current events (Jeremy Corbyn's election), and various social and political developments. Scott presents each item with brief commentary, often highlighting interesting methodologies or unexpected findings. The post maintains a mix of serious academic content and more lighthearted observations, frequently noting clever research designs or counterintuitive findings. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links and studies covering education, race, healthcare, and various other topics, with Scott's commentary and analysis on each item. Longer summary

This is a link roundup post containing various news stories, studies, and interesting findings from different fields. The post covers topics ranging from education and healthcare to genetics and AI safety. Scott discusses several studies about racial achievement gaps, education outcomes, and healthcare system comparisons. He also shares interesting findings about animals, medical coding systems, and various social and economic issues. The post maintains a light tone while discussing serious topics, often adding humorous asides or personal observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores how evil evolves to evade societal recognition, drawing parallels with flu viruses and analyzing modern bullying tactics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the anti-inductive nature of evil, comparing it to the evolution of flu viruses. He argues that as society develops antibodies against recognized forms of evil (like Nazism and Communism), new forms of evil will emerge that don't match these patterns. The post then analyzes a Cracked article about groups society considers acceptable to mock, suggesting that bullies adapt their tactics to appear as if they're 'punching up' when they're actually 'punching down'. Scott concludes by noting that calling out these new forms of bullying is important work, as it helps society recognize and prevent them. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander humorously explores the World Cup's complex rules, game theory in soccer, and unusual incentive structures in international tournaments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously discusses the World Cup, focusing on its complex advancement rules and the strategic implications for teams. He explores the idea of the tournament as a primitive neural net, and ponders whether a large enough soccer tournament could achieve sentience. The post then delves into game theory, discussing the potential for teams to cooperate for mutual benefit in certain scenarios. It concludes with an anecdote about a 1994 Caribbean Cup game that had an extremely unusual incentive structure due to a peculiar rule. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Ezra Klein's argument that white Americans have benefited from compound interest on wealth stolen from African Americans, citing evidence that wealth rarely persists across generations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques an article by Ezra Klein on Vox about compound interest and reparations. Klein argues that white Americans have benefited from centuries of compound interest on wealth stolen from African Americans. Scott challenges this view with two main arguments. First, he points out that former slave-owning states are now among the poorest in the US. Second, he cites research showing that wealth rarely persists across more than a few generations. Scott discusses studies on social mobility and a Cherokee land lottery to support his point that family wealth tends to regress to the mean over time. He concludes by criticizing Vox for oversimplifying a complex issue and ignoring important research in economics and sociology. Shorter summary