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Aug 03, 2026
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Does Forecasting Have Room At The Top?

25 min • 3,865 words • 42 comments • 90 likes
Scott analyzes whether AI forecasters will plateau near human levels or keep improving, arguing that even non-miraculous progress could yield 4-12 percentage point improvements in prediction market accuracy. Longer summary
Scott examines whether AI forecasters will plateau near current human performance or continue improving far beyond it. He analyzes a 2010 study by Daniel Reeves showing prediction markets only marginally outperformed simple statistical models, but argues this doesn't necessarily limit future progress. The post reframes those results to show they actually represent meaningful gains in difficult-to-predict domains like sports, then applies this reasoning to geopolitical forecasting. Using three different 'anchors' - comparing AI improvements to past technological gains, human-to-superhuman forecaster improvements, and chess AI progress - Scott estimates that maximally capable AI forecasters could improve prediction market accuracy by 4-12 percentage points over current levels, which he argues would be genuinely valuable even if not miraculous. Shorter summary
Jul 31, 2026
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Your Book Review: The Epic Of Gilgamesh

85 min • 13,140 words • 96 comments • 241 likes
An exploration of the Epic of Gilgamesh, the world's oldest epic, examining its themes of mortality and meaning while providing extensive historical context about ancient Mesopotamia and arguing that the poem's true immortality comes from the countless people who preserved and transmitted it. Longer summary
This book review explores the Epic of Gilgamesh, the world's oldest epic story written around 2100 BC in Mesopotamia, examining its historical context, literary evolution through multiple versions, and central themes of mortality and meaning. The reviewer traces Gilgamesh's journey from tyrannical king through his friendship with Enkidu, his quest for immortality after Enkidu's death, and his ultimate acceptance of human mortality, while providing rich historical background on ancient Mesopotamia, the development of writing, and the text's rediscovery in the 19th century. The review concludes by reframing the poem's message: rather than seeking immortality through great deeds, we achieve a form of persistence through our connections to others and the information we leave behind, as demonstrated by the many anonymous scribes and citizens whose contributions preserved this ancient story. Shorter summary
Jul 30, 2026
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Highlights From The Discourse On The Hugging Face Incident

45 min • 6,868 words • 264 comments • 253 likes
Scott analyzes reactions to the Hugging Face incident and celebrates a major open letter from AI lab employees calling for coordinated slowdowns, which he sees as significantly improving humanity's chances of surviving AI development. Longer summary
Scott reviews reactions to the Hugging Face hacking incident, focusing on the landmark 'Pacing The Frontier' open letter signed by 1,000+ employees from major AI labs calling for international coordination to slow AI development. The post covers various perspectives on whether individual companies can/should unilaterally slow down, details of the hack itself, and introduces AIFP's framework of five possible plans (D through A/S) for handling superintelligence development, with the open letter significantly increasing the probability of 'Plan A' (coordinated international agreement). Shorter summary
Jul 30, 2026
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Links For July 2026 (Part 2)

39 min • 5,973 words • 305 comments • 150 likes
Scott's monthly links roundup covering AI progress, the coming flood of philanthropic funding to effective altruism from AI companies, new research on persuasion and forecasting, and various scientific and cultural topics ranging from dementia prevention to Romanian politicians' embarrassing quotes. Longer summary
This is the second part of Scott Alexander's monthly links roundup for July 2026, covering a wide range of topics including AI developments, effective altruism funding waves, healthcare research, and cultural curiosities. Major themes include Chinese AI models catching up to the US (though still 6-12 months behind), the coming "third wave" of American philanthropy from AI company equity donations potentially flooding effective altruism with $40 billion/year, AI systems now outperforming humans at persuasion in specific contexts, and various scientific findings from dementia prevention to infinite ethics. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious technical analysis, historical oddities, and humorous observations, with extensive linking to sources and ongoing debates in the rationalist and effective altruist communities. Shorter summary
Jul 22, 2026
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Links For July 2026 (Part 1)

25 min • 3,748 words • 418 comments • 198 likes
Scott shares his monthly collection of interesting links from around the internet, covering topics from Jeremy Bentham's linguistic legacy to AI developments, with characteristic commentary and fact-checking caveats. Longer summary
This is Scott's monthly 'Links' post, a curated collection of interesting articles, studies, and social media posts from around the internet. The links span a wide range of topics including historical curiosities (Jeremy Bentham's word inventions, beard-wearing persecution in 19th century America), scientific oddities (a mushroom that causes gnome hallucinations), AI developments (mathematical proofs, constrained writing, dating apps), current events (Berkeley's housing permits, GLP-1 weight retention), and cultural phenomena (the Monet/AI art prank). Scott includes his typical epistemic disclaimers about not having verified all links independently and provides commentary throughout. The post ends with a note that he accumulated too many links and will publish the second half next week. Shorter summary
Jul 02, 2026
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The AI Superforecasters Are Here

39 min • 5,984 words • 328 comments • 571 likes • podcast (42 min)
Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions. Longer summary
Scott discusses the emergence of AI superforecasters that are now matching or slightly exceeding top human forecasters in prediction accuracy. He describes how these AI systems work (using scaffolding around frontier models like GPT/Claude), demonstrates their use with examples from FutureSearch and Preseen, and analyzes their performance on platforms like Metaculus where they're competing in tournaments against humans. The post explores both near-term implications (AI forecasters being easier to access than human superforecasters, potentially influencing policy and business decisions) and longer-term possibilities (AI forecasters serving as an 'opinion layer' for AI systems, transformation of prediction markets into AI-vs-AI competitions). Scott argues these developments could be genuinely beneficial, giving people access to superhuman forecasting ability just as AI threatens other aspects of society. Shorter summary
Jul 01, 2026
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Chip Off The Old Block

27 min • 4,128 words • 272 comments • 862 likes • podcast (22 min)
Scott reflects on having young children and how they've inherited specific traits, preferences, and quirks from both him and his wife in surprisingly precise ways. Longer summary
Scott explores the unexpected joys and challenges of seeing himself reflected in his children, particularly his son's inheritance of his childhood train obsession and OCD tendencies. He describes how his twins have split parental traits between them - his son inherited Scott's quirks while his daughter inherited his wife's - and how they've developed their own unique combinations. The post then shifts to discussing his parenting philosophy, defending his negotiation-based approach against critics by comparing family dynamics to feudal systems of rights and duties, complete with detailed examples of bedtime routines and the complex rules that have evolved through negotiation with his toddlers. Shorter summary
Jun 16, 2026
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Never Cross a River Four Feet Deep on Average

45 min • 6,939 words • 115 comments • 189 likes • podcast (38 min)
A replication of a 2023 neuroscience study on brain entrainment and learning found that the original effect likely doesn't exist, revealing how the study obscured key issues through statistical averaging and highlighting how AI tools are democratizing scientific scrutiny. Longer summary
Sasha Putilin received an ACX grant to replicate a 2023 study claiming that flickering lights synchronized to individual brain rhythms could boost learning speed threefold. The $32,000 replication with 12 participants (versus 80 in the original) found no such effect. Upon examining the original data more closely, Putilin discovered the apparent effect was driven entirely by a few participants with large negative learning rates (getting worse over time) who happened to all be in one experimental group. The original study had obscured this pattern by presenting averaged data rather than individual results. Putilin argues this exemplifies 'cargo-cult statistics' where researchers mechanically apply statistical rituals without critically examining underlying data. The post concludes by suggesting AI tools are democratizing meta-science, enabling anyone to audit published research that previously required expert-level effort. Shorter summary
Jun 11, 2026
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My AI Opinions

43 min • 6,520 words • 618 comments • 409 likes • podcast (38 min)
Scott provides detailed probabilistic timelines and beliefs about AGI development, AI safety, geopolitics, and future outcomes, with his median expectation being AGI in 2031 and 20% probability of existential catastrophe given current safety efforts. Longer summary
Scott lays out his detailed probabilistic beliefs about AI development across five main areas: timelines for AGI and superintelligence (25% chance of AGI by 2027, 50% by 2034), safety prospects (20% chance of doom given current safety efforts, down from 50% without them), geopolitics around AI pauses (40% chance of US-China pause agreement before point of no return), other outcomes like permanent underclass (only 20% likely to last more than a generation), and simulation hypothesis (66% chance the singularity is related to us being in a simulation). He provides arguments for optimism and pessimism on each point, with his modal scenario involving AGI in 2031, widespread automation by late 2030s, and Bostromian superintelligence making GDP go vertical in the early 2040s. The post is technical and probabilistic throughout, written in response to misinterpretations of his views. Shorter summary
Jun 03, 2026
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Choose Book Review Finalists 2026

2 min • 176 words • 303 comments • 105 likes
Scott announces the finalist selection phase for the 2026 Book Review Contest, asking readers to help rate 162 entries using a new website built by Rob Ennals. Longer summary
Scott announces that the 2026 Book Review Contest has received 162 entries and needs to be narrowed down to about a dozen finalists. Since he can't read all entries alone, he's asking readers to help by rating as many reviews as they have time for on a scale of 1-10. Rob Ennals, a software engineer, has built a dedicated website to make the rating process easier, which displays reviews randomly by default to ensure diverse coverage. Readers have until June 15 to submit their ratings. Shorter summary
May 19, 2026
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The Types Of Candidate You Find In The California Gubernatorial Race

47 min • 7,172 words • 339 comments • 412 likes • podcast (48 min)
Scott categorizes California's 60 gubernatorial candidates into humorous types rather than covering them individually, from generic top-tier politicians to increasingly bizarre fringe candidates with conspiracy theories, supernatural visions, and incomprehensible platforms. Longer summary
Scott gives up on covering all 60 California gubernatorial candidates individually and instead categorizes them into amusing types: top-tier Democrats and Republicans who are all generic and interchangeable, conflict theorists who think fraud and Marxism are the problem, mistake theorists with shower-thought solutions, media getters who pay for fake magazine covers and polls, candidates with personal vendettas from lost court cases, AI natives whose campaigns appear AI-generated, nominative determinists who changed their names to things like 'LivingForGod AndCountry', college students ranging from socialist protesters to Catholic philosophers, anti-Semites with conspiracy theories, people on missions from God who received supernatural visions, entrepreneurs selling their platforms for $1000, those just having fun (like a single-issue pro-movie candidate), musicians with campaign songs, and increasingly bizarre candidates including one merging edtech with interdimensional pirate captains and another whose site randomly links to the Book of Enoch. Shorter summary
May 13, 2026
acx
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Nostalgebraist's Hydrogen Jukeboxes

17 min • 2,494 words • 636 comments • 379 likes • podcast (16 min)
Scott uses Nostalgebraist's analysis of AI fiction's 'eyeball kicks' to develop a theory where bad taste means overusing cheap tricks that work on unsophisticated audiences, while good taste involves complex patterns only experts can appreciate - then questions whether sophisticated taste actually produces more pleasure. Longer summary
Scott analyzes Nostalgebraist's concept of 'eyeball kicks' - flashy, cheap literary tricks that AI models overuse when trying to write good fiction. He connects this to a broader theory of taste: bad taste is overusing easy tricks that work on unsophisticated audiences (like Lisa Frank posters, children's songs, or ornate architecture), while good taste involves subtle, complex patterns only masters can execute. Scott argues that banning all 'cheap tricks' leads to art that's ugly to most people and only appreciated by tiny sophisticated minorities. He questions whether this sophistication actually produces more pleasure than simple joys, noting his daughter gets more happiness from 'Choo Choo Train' than he gets from sophisticated art. Shorter summary
May 07, 2026
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Contra Everyone On Taste

35 min • 5,410 words • 817 comments • 682 likes • podcast (32 min)
Scott argues that aesthetic discussions wrongly conflate sensory delight with novelty and context, and that modern art's obsession with being part of a historical conversation has led to the abandonment of beauty in favor of mechanical innovation. Longer summary
Scott argues that discussions of artistic taste conflate multiple distinct concepts (sensory delight, novelty, pattern recognition, context, etc.) and that this conflation prevents clear thinking. He uses a parable about restaurant criticism to argue that we should isolate the direct aesthetic experience from contextual factors like novelty and provenance, similar to how medical trials control for placebo effects. He criticizes modern art and literature for prioritizing novelty and historical conversation over genuine beauty or transformation, using examples like the Angelus Novus painting (which inspired beautiful commentary despite being visually unimpressive) and the constraints on contemporary novels. Scott acknowledges the value of artistic innovation but argues that when artists can't successfully marry beauty with novelty, they should stick to traditional forms rather than produce endless variations of transgressive art that adds nothing meaningful to the conversation. Shorter summary
Apr 23, 2026
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Links For April 2026

53 min • 8,070 words • 588 comments • 272 likes • podcast (47 min)
Scott Alexander's April 2026 links roundup covers diverse topics including Venn diagram complexity, flag desecration laws, AI developments, political analysis, scientific studies, and various cultural curiosities. Longer summary
This monthly links post compiles interesting articles, studies, and observations from across the internet in April 2026. Major themes include AI progress and policy (including discussions of AI alignment, capabilities, and regulation), political developments (Trump administration actions, election analysis), scientific findings (from evolutionary psychology to medical treatments), and various cultural oddities. Scott provides brief commentary on each link while noting that he hasn't independently verified all claims and that commenters typically find errors in a few links per post. Shorter summary
Apr 21, 2026
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Half A Month Of Consolation Writing Advice

41 min • 6,219 words • 223 comments • 803 likes • podcast (33 min)
Scott Alexander provides fifteen pieces of writing advice for aspiring bloggers, emphasizing authenticity, avoiding microdishonesty, mastering basic disciplines before breaking rules, and finding original angles on common topics rather than recycling blogosphere content. Longer summary
Scott Alexander offers fifteen pieces of writing advice for participants in Lighthaven's Inkhaven blogging bootcamp, covering topics from avoiding microdishonesty to finding original angles on common subjects. He discusses the importance of authenticity in writing, warns against clichés while acknowledging their ubiquity, and introduces the concept of 'mountaintop disciplines'—strict writing rules to master before breaking them. The advice spans structural concerns like avoiding tangled sentences and the traditional five-paragraph essay, to strategic considerations like injecting first-hand knowledge rather than recycling blogosphere topics, and tactical tips about using conflict and mystery to maintain reader interest. Throughout, Scott emphasizes that good writing comes from genuine contact with the world and honest expression of one's actual thoughts, rather than attempting to say what seems presentable or expected. Shorter summary
Apr 16, 2026
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Orban Was Bad, Even Though We Don't Have A Perfect Word For His Badness

18 min • 2,675 words • 1,150 comments • 855 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott argues that Viktor Orban's election loss doesn't vindicate him or disprove concerns about democratic backsliding, since autocrats can do many undemocratic things and still lose elections. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to commentary suggesting that Viktor Orban's recent election loss proves critics who called him authoritarian were overreacting. He argues that democracy versus dictatorship exists on a spectrum, and that Orban engaged in numerous undemocratic practices (media control, gerrymandering, phone tapping, etc.) even though he ultimately lost. Scott provides historical examples of dictators and autocrats who also lost elections (Pinochet, Milosevic, Putin, Chavez), showing that losing an election doesn't retroactively prove a leader wasn't undermining democracy. He concludes by connecting this to Trump, acknowledging he initially dismissed concerns about Trump threatening democracy but changed his mind after the 2020 election and January 6, and argues we shouldn't discard the "democratic backsliding" framework just because Orban lost. Shorter summary
Mar 27, 2026
acx
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A Buddhist Sun Miracle?

12 min • 1,790 words • 346 comments • 258 likes • podcast (12 min)
Scott Alexander reports on a 1990s Buddhist sun miracle in Bangkok that closely resembles the famous 1917 Fatima miracle, suggesting sun miracles may be a specific psychological phenomenon related to meditation practices rather than divine intervention. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses a newly discovered 1990s Buddhist sun miracle in Bangkok that closely parallels the famous 1917 Fatima sun miracle in Portugal, where crowds reported seeing the sun spin and change colors. At the Dhammakaya Temple, 20,000 people witnessed similar phenomena during a ceremony, with testimonies describing the sun rotating, shifting colors, and displaying visions of their sect's founder. Scott argues this Buddhist case - occurring in an 'uncontaminated' religious context - strengthens the theory that sun miracles are a particular psychological/illusory phenomenon rather than divine intervention or simple suggestion, possibly related to kasina meditation practices. The post includes a call for Thai-speaking researchers to investigate further. Shorter summary
Mar 26, 2026
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How Natural Tradeoff And Failure Components?

6 min • 820 words • 196 comments • 230 likes • podcast (6 min)
Scott discusses how new schizophrenia genetics research confirms that psychiatric conditions combine both 'tradeoff' components (with compensating advantages) and 'failure' components (purely negative), then argues this pattern is common sense for any multifactorial problem. Longer summary
Scott discusses new research on schizophrenia genetics which found two distinct components: one shared with bipolar that increases educational attainment (a tradeoff), and one that decreases IQ (a pure failure). He connects this to his 2021 post on tradeoff vs. failure models of psychiatric conditions, arguing that this pattern is actually common sense - most multifactorial problems naturally combine both types. He illustrates this with everyday examples like poverty (which can result from failures like poor health or tradeoffs like choosing to be a starving artist), relationships, and even physical illnesses like cancer. Scott concludes he has 'dissolved' what he previously saw as a mysterious fact about psychiatric conditions into something obvious: complex multidimensional problems will naturally have multiple causes falling into both the 'by choice' and 'not by choice' categories. Shorter summary
Mar 11, 2026
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Last Rights

26 min • 3,962 words • 432 comments • 493 likes • podcast (22 min)
A guest post arguing that ratifying the Congressional Apportionment Amendment from the original Bill of Rights would expand the House to 6,641 members and fix Congress by reducing gerrymandering, diluting donor influence, and increasing constituent accountability. Longer summary
This guest post by David Speiser argues for ratifying the Congressional Apportionment Amendment, the only unratified amendment from the original Bill of Rights, which would expand the House of Representatives from 435 to about 6,641 members by setting one representative per 50,000 citizens. The post explains how Congress's current dysfunction stems from gerrymandering, money in politics, and polarization, and argues that a much larger House would ameliorate these problems by making districts smaller and harder to gerrymander, diluting the influence of big donors, and forcing representatives to be more accountable to local constituents. The amendment has already been ratified by 11 states and needs 27 more, avoiding the problem that most Congressional reforms require Congressional approval. The post acknowledges a typo in the amendment's wording that could force an interesting legal battle between textualism and originalism, and ends with a pitch to state legislators explaining why both parties should support ratification. Shorter summary
Mar 03, 2026
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Mantic Monday: Groundhog Day

36 min • 5,499 words • 307 comments • 230 likes • podcast (31 min)
Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange. Longer summary
Scott analyzes several recent prediction market stories. First, he examines how Anthropic's stock price barely changed after the Pentagon declared it a 'supply chain risk', because markets predict the company will win on appeal and the designation only affects a small portion of their business while generating positive publicity. He then discusses the 2026 midterms, where Democrats are favored to win but various Republican voting law changes could create chaos, though markets suggest turnout won't be significantly affected. The post includes a statistical analysis of groundhog weather predictions, showing Staten Island Chuck's high accuracy is likely due to consistently predicting spring. He covers prediction markets about the Iran conflict, including regime change odds and potential casualties. Finally, he announces MNX, a new cryptocurrency-based futures exchange focused on AI-related hedging markets, and shares miscellaneous prediction market news including Substack's partnership with Polymarket. Shorter summary
Feb 18, 2026
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Record Low Crime Rates Are Real, Not Just Reporting Bias Or Improved Medical Care

17 min • 2,566 words • 718 comments • 388 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott demonstrates that US crime rates are at historic lows using multiple data sources, then debunks the theories that this is due to reporting bias or improved medical care, before briefly discussing possible explanations for the decline. Longer summary
Scott presents evidence that US crime rates, particularly murder rates, are at or near historic lows, then systematically debunks two common objections: that the decline is due to underreporting bias, and that it's an artifact of improved medical care saving would-be murder victims. He shows that multiple independent data sources (including victim surveys and consistently-reported crimes like car theft) confirm the decline, and that while medical care has improved, gun injuries have become more severe at roughly the same rate, canceling out the effect. The post concludes by listing various theories for why crime has declined and questioning why public perception doesn't match the data. Shorter summary
Feb 11, 2026
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Political Backflow From Europe

14 min • 2,052 words • 1,150 comments • 401 likes • podcast (12 min)
Scott examines how American political discourse absorbs European narratives that don't fit the US context, particularly around immigration and crime statistics. Longer summary
Scott argues that American political discourse sometimes absorbs European issues that don't apply to the US context. He gives two main examples: the narrative about generational wealth transfer through pensions (which happens in Europe but not America), and conservative talking points about immigrants being criminals and welfare recipients (largely true in parts of Europe, largely false in America). He provides detailed statistics showing that most US immigrant groups, including asylum seekers, have lower crime rates than native-born Americans, contrasting this with higher rates in countries like Germany. Scott suggests both liberals and conservatives avoid acknowledging this difference because it's politically inconvenient, but argues liberals should directly challenge conservatives to focus on American rather than European data. Shorter summary
Feb 05, 2026
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Links For February 2026

48 min • 7,419 words • 660 comments • 255 likes • podcast (49 min)
A monthly collection of diverse links covering AI developments and regulation, COVID origins debates, healthcare policy, cultural phenomena, scientific research, and internet curiosities, maintaining Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and entertaining observations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander's February 2026 links collection covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, politics, science, culture, and internet phenomena. Major themes include updates on AI capabilities and regulation (with discussions of OpenAI, Anthropic, and various political machinations around AI policy), the ongoing COVID lab leak debate and related prediction markets, healthcare and drug development issues, cultural observations from around the world, and various scientific and academic findings. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious policy discussions, academic research, internet curiosities, and cultural commentary, with particular attention to AI safety concerns, rationalist community topics, and interesting historical or linguistic oddities. Shorter summary
Feb 02, 2026
acx
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Moltbook: After The First Weekend

59 min • 9,138 words • 320 comments • 324 likes • podcast (121 min)
Scott examines Moltbook (an AI social network) to determine if AI behavior is 'real' by analyzing external causes and effects, finding that while AIs create impressive projects, their short time horizons prevent sustained organization, though this may change as capabilities improve. Longer summary
Scott Alexander analyzes Moltbook, an AI-only social network, examining whether AI behavior there is 'real' or merely 'roleplaying' by looking at external causes and effects rather than internal consciousness. He categorizes different types of AI users (power users, malefactors, prophets, revolutionaries, etc.), finding that while AIs can found religions, movements, and projects, they mostly fail to sustain them beyond their ~4-hour time horizons. The post concludes that Moltbook is currently about 95% fake but may become more real as AI capabilities improve, making it a valuable preview of potential AI behavior patterns. Shorter summary
Jan 21, 2026
acx
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Highlights From The Comments On Scott Adams

59 min • 9,104 words • 824 comments • 302 likes • podcast (51 min)
Scott responds to comments on his Scott Adams obituary, defending his mixed tone while making some updates based on feedback about Adams' podcast reach and influence. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his Scott Adams obituary, addressing criticisms about the post's timing and tone, defending his characterization of Adams' interest in manipulation, discussing the reach of Adams' podcast, and (reluctantly) clarifying his position on Adams' controversial race-related comments. The post includes updates acknowledging that Adams' podcast was more influential than initially stated and that his manipulation techniques coexisted with genuine helpfulness to many people. Shorter summary
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