Scott analyzes whether whole-body screening MRIs are worth it by doing a detailed cost-benefit calculation, finding they cost about $108,000 per quality-adjusted life-year saved (right around the threshold of cost-effectiveness), and argues that while rich people immune to anxiety might benefit, most people claiming to be rational about medical decisions probably aren't. Longer summary

Scott performs a detailed cost-benefit analysis of whole-body screening MRIs in response to controversy over medical experts recommending against them. Using rough order-of-magnitude estimates, he calculates that screening 1,000 people saves about 32 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at a cost of $2.7 million plus time and anxiety costs, working out to about $108,000 per QALY saved—right at the threshold of cost-effectiveness. He explores whether rich people who don't care about money should get screened, finding a plausible case but with many caveats about unknown factors that could swing the calculation either way. He then applies this analysis to Midjourney's proposed ultrasound scanner, finding it's unlikely to be clearly better than MRI. The post ends with a warning that people who think they're rational enough to ignore false positives are often the same people making irrational medical decisions based on contrarian appeals. Shorter summary

A replication of a 2023 neuroscience study on brain entrainment and learning found that the original effect likely doesn't exist, revealing how the study obscured key issues through statistical averaging and highlighting how AI tools are democratizing scientific scrutiny. Longer summary

Sasha Putilin received an ACX grant to replicate a 2023 study claiming that flickering lights synchronized to individual brain rhythms could boost learning speed threefold. The $32,000 replication with 12 participants (versus 80 in the original) found no such effect. Upon examining the original data more closely, Putilin discovered the apparent effect was driven entirely by a few participants with large negative learning rates (getting worse over time) who happened to all be in one experimental group. The original study had obscured this pattern by presenting averaged data rather than individual results. Putilin argues this exemplifies 'cargo-cult statistics' where researchers mechanically apply statistical rituals without critically examining underlying data. The post concludes by suggesting AI tools are democratizing meta-science, enabling anyone to audit published research that previously required expert-level effort. Shorter summary

A review of the synaptic plasticity and memory hypothesis arguing that it is insufficient to explain memory, and proposing a broader cellular processes and memory hypothesis that includes molecular and intracellular mechanisms. Longer summary

The post reviews the synaptic plasticity and memory (SPM) hypothesis, which claims that learning and memory are stored in changes to synaptic weights between neurons. Through several compelling examples, from cannibalism rituals to heart transplant stories and single-cell learning, the author argues that while the SPM hypothesis has been productive, it is incomplete and partially wrong. The post presents evidence that memory can be stored through non-synaptic mechanisms, and proposes an alternative called the cellular processes and memory (CPM) hypothesis, which suggests memory storage involves multiple molecular and intracellular processes beyond just synaptic weights. Shorter summary

This review explores how schools are primarily designed to maximize motivation rather than learning, explaining why age-graded classrooms and seemingly inefficient group learning have persisted despite numerous attempts at reform. Longer summary

The post examines why schools have maintained their traditional structure of age-graded classrooms where all students learn the same content, despite its apparent inefficiencies. The author argues that schools are designed primarily to maximize motivation rather than learning, using conformity as a key tool. Through analyzing various attempts at personalized learning and their consistent failures to scale beyond about 5% of students, the post explains how students fall into three categories: no-structure learners, low-structure learners, and high-structure learners. The author concludes that while the current system is far from perfect, it has proven more effective at scale than any alternatives, predicting that despite continued attempts at reform, the basic structure of schooling will remain unchanged. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes research on whether longer prison sentences reduce crime, examining studies on deterrence, incapacitation, and aftereffects, to conclude that while prison does decrease crime through incapacitation, it's less cost-effective than other methods like policing. Longer summary

This post examines the relationship between prison sentences and crime reduction through three mechanisms: deterrence (scaring potential criminals), incapacitation (preventing prisoners from committing crimes), and aftereffects (post-release behavior changes). Through analysis of multiple studies and reviews, Scott finds that deterrence effects are minimal, incapacitation has strong positive effects (preventing about 7 crimes per prisoner-year), and aftereffects range from slightly beneficial to harmful depending on circumstances. He concludes that while prison does reduce crime, with a 10% increase in incarceration reducing crime by about 3%, it's less cost-effective than alternatives like increased policing. The post ends by examining practical challenges in the justice system that prevent effective handling of repeat offenders. Shorter summary

The review examines Daniel Everett's 'How Language Began', which challenges Chomsky's linguistic theories and proposes an alternative view of language as a gradual cultural invention. Longer summary

This book review discusses Daniel Everett's 'How Language Began', which challenges Noam Chomsky's dominant theories in linguistics. Everett argues that language emerged gradually over a long period, is primarily for communication, and is not innate but a cultural invention. The review contrasts Everett's views with Chomsky's, detailing Everett's research with the Pirahã people and his alternative theory of language origins. It also touches on the controversy Everett's work has sparked in linguistics and its potential implications for understanding language and AI. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Family That Couldn't Sleep' by D. T. Max, discussing its exploration of prion diseases and their impact, with updated perspectives on the book's conclusions. Longer summary

This review discusses 'The Family That Couldn't Sleep' by D. T. Max, a book about prion diseases published in 2006. The review covers the book's exploration of various prion diseases, including fatal familial insomnia, kuru, mad cow disease, and chronic wasting disease. It highlights the book's focus on the historical, scientific, and cultural aspects of these diseases, as well as the key figures involved in prion research. The reviewer also provides updated information and critiques some of the book's conclusions in light of more recent research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the claim that children learn languages faster than adults, finding it partially true but more nuanced than commonly believed. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the claim that children learn languages faster than adults, finding it to be partially true but more complex than commonly believed. He explores various aspects of language acquisition, including critical periods for first language learning, age effects on second language learning, and differences in learning rates between children and adults. The post concludes that while children seem to pick up second languages faster than adults, this advantage is not as clear-cut as often thought, and factors like exposure, motivation, and declining learning rates with age play significant roles. Shorter summary

A review of 'Safe Enough?' by Thomas Wellock, exploring the history and limitations of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in nuclear safety. Longer summary

This book review examines 'Safe Enough? A History of Nuclear Power and Accident Risk' by Thomas Wellock, which chronicles the development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in nuclear safety. The review discusses how PRA became the dominant method for analyzing nuclear risk, its successes in reducing accidents, and its limitations in predicting extreme events like Fukushima. The author argues that while PRA greatly improved nuclear safety, it cannot fully account for rare but catastrophic 'dragon king' events, leaving the question of whether nuclear power is 'safe enough' ultimately unanswered. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the 'canalization' theory in computational psychiatry and its refinement through deep learning concepts in the Deep CANAL model. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a new paradigm in computational psychiatry called 'canalization', which models mental processes as an energy landscape with valleys representing attractors or persistent beliefs/behaviors. He then explores a follow-up paper that applies concepts from deep learning to refine this theory, introducing the Deep CANAL model. This model attempts to explain various mental disorders by mapping them onto different types of computational issues in artificial neural networks, such as overfitting/underfitting and the stability/plasticity dilemma. Scott expresses both interest and skepticism about this approach, noting its potential insights but also its limitations and potential contradictions with other theories. Shorter summary

The post challenges the notion that effect sizes below 0.50 for medications are clinically insignificant, using antidepressants as a case study and comparing them to other common drugs. Longer summary

This post discusses the interpretation of effect sizes in medical studies, particularly for antidepressants. It challenges the common notion that effect sizes below 0.50 are clinically insignificant. The author presents a Danish study that simulates various hypothetical medications, showing that even drugs that cure or significantly improve depression in a large percentage of patients might not meet traditional effect size thresholds. The post explains why these thresholds might be unrealistic due to factors like the placebo effect, high standard deviations in placebo groups, and patient dropouts. It also compares antidepressant effect sizes to those of other widely accepted medications, concluding that many common drugs would be considered 'clinically insignificant' by strict effect size standards. The author suggests that claims about 'meaningless effect sizes' should be given less weight compared to other evidence, such as clinical experience. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his post about new telemedicine regulations, addressing various concerns and criticisms raised by readers. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to various comments on his original post about new telemedicine regulations. He addresses concerns about drug addiction, debates the effectiveness of telemedicine compared to in-person care, discusses the issue of 'pill mills', clarifies his analogy about blind people accessing Braille, responds to criticism of his characterization of Christian doctors, examines which part of the government is responsible for the regulations, and looks at how other countries handle telemedicine prescriptions. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a book on culture-bound syndromes, expanding the discussion to how all mental illnesses are influenced by culture to varying degrees. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'The Geography of Madness' by Frank Bures, which explores culture-bound syndromes like koro (belief in penis theft by witches). The book traces the history and spread of these syndromes across cultures. Scott expands on the idea, discussing how all mental illnesses exist on a spectrum of biological vs. cultural influence. He argues that even conditions considered 'real' in Western psychiatry, like anorexia or PTSD, have significant cultural components. The review touches on complex issues around gender dysphoria and cultural beliefs, concluding that there is no truly 'neutral' culture free from influence on mental health presentations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 49 links and brief commentaries on various topics, ranging from cultured meat to AI developments and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 49 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, including cultured meat, government policies, scientific studies, historical anecdotes, AI developments, and current events. The author, Scott Alexander, provides his thoughts and observations on each item, often with a mix of humor, skepticism, and analysis. The links cover a wide range of subjects from technology and economics to politics and culture, reflecting the broad interests of the blog's readership. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his post about semaglutide, covering corrections, additional information, and user experiences with the weight loss drug. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his previous post about semaglutide, a weight loss drug. The highlights include corrections to his original analysis, additional information on obtaining semaglutide cheaply, discussion of other weight loss drugs and treatments, challenges to Scott's predictions, debate over whether weight loss is maintained after stopping the drug, personal anecdotes from users, and mentions of some tangential debates in the comments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 57 diverse links on topics including politics, science, technology, and culture, providing brief summaries and commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 57 diverse links covering various topics including politics, science, technology, culture, and society. Scott Alexander briefly summarizes each link, often adding his own commentary or thoughts. The links range from scientific studies and political polls to interesting cultural phenomena and technological advancements. Some notable topics include AI development, environmental issues, mental health, and social trends. Shorter summary

A detailed review of Michael Shellenberger's 'San Fransicko', examining its critiques of San Francisco's progressive policies on homelessness, drugs, and crime. Longer summary

This post reviews Michael Shellenberger's book 'San Fransicko', which criticizes progressive policies on homelessness, drug addiction, and crime in San Francisco. The review examines key claims in the book, fact-checking statistics and comparing them to other sources. While finding some of Shellenberger's criticisms valid, the review also points out areas where the book presents a one-sided narrative or misrepresents data. Overall, the reviewer sees the book as a flawed but thought-provoking critique of San Francisco's approach to urban problems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines obscure pregnancy interventions that may improve child outcomes, rating them by evidence quality and potential impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various obscure pregnancy interventions that could potentially improve child outcomes, particularly IQ. He rates them in tiers based on evidence strength and potential impact, with Tier 1 being most strongly supported. Key interventions discussed include embryo selection, choline supplementation, avoiding stress and certain substances, and optimizing birth timing. He emphasizes these are extreme measures not meant to induce guilt, and that standard pregnancy advice is still most important. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander proposes using high-dose oral progesterone as a potential low-cost alternative to Zulresso for treating postpartum depression, based on pharmacological research. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the possibility of using high-dose progesterone as a cheaper alternative to Zulresso for treating postpartum depression. He explains that Zulresso is a metabolite of progesterone and presents research suggesting that a specific regimen of oral progesterone could potentially mimic the effects of Zulresso. The post discusses the pharmacokinetics, dosing schedule, and potential cost savings, with progesterone treatment costing only about $11 compared to Zulresso's $35,000. Scott acknowledges potential obstacles in implementation but hopes researchers will investigate this approach further. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines Zulresso and Zuranolone, two neurosteroid drugs for postpartum depression, discussing their efficacy, challenges, and potential future applications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses Zulresso (allopregnanolone) and Zuranolone, two related drugs for treating postpartum depression. He explains their mechanisms, efficacy, and the challenges in their development and usage. The post covers the history of allopregnanolone research, its connection to GABA and hormones, clinical trials, and potential future applications. Scott also discusses the high cost of Zulresso, its limited availability, and the mixed results of Zuranolone in treating regular depression and anxiety. The post ends with predictions about the future of these drugs and related research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from scientific studies to cultural phenomena, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and topics. Scott covers a wide range of subjects including scientific studies, cultural phenomena, economic trends, AI developments, and current events. The post includes commentary on each link, often with Scott's personal insights or opinions. Some recurring themes include AI progress, social science research, economic inequality, and cultural shifts. The tone is informative and slightly humorous, with Scott occasionally adding caveats about the reliability of certain claims or studies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 34 diverse and interesting links on topics ranging from historical curiosities to current scientific debates, with brief commentaries on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 34 interesting links and brief commentaries on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including historical anecdotes, scientific studies, economic theories, technological developments, and social issues. The author, Scott Alexander, provides his thoughts and sometimes skeptical analysis on many of the items. The links are diverse, ranging from a list of games Buddha wouldn't play to discussions about AI safety research opportunities. Shorter summary

Lars Doucet examines whether landlords can pass Land Value Tax on to tenants, concluding that empirical evidence supports they cannot. Longer summary

This article, written by Lars Doucet, is the second part of a series examining the empirical basis for Georgism. It focuses on the question of whether landlords can pass Land Value Tax (LVT) on to tenants. The article presents both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence, primarily from a 2017 Danish study, to support the claim that LVT cannot be passed on to tenants. It also reviews and critiques opposing viewpoints, ultimately concluding that the evidence strongly supports the full capitalization of LVT into land prices, meaning landlords bear the cost of the tax. Shorter summary

Scott summarizes reader comments on his 'Secrets of the Great Families' post, covering additional examples, statistical discussions, and personal perspectives on family achievement. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on Scott's previous article about famous families. It includes additional examples of notable families, discussions on the statistical significance of family clustering, insights from people with high-achieving families, perspectives from those with less successful backgrounds, and various other related topics. The post covers a wide range of fields including science, sports, literature, and politics, and discusses factors like genetics, environment, and family culture that may contribute to success across generations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes ivermectin studies for COVID-19, finding most positive results likely due to methodological flaws, fraud, or confounding by parasitic infections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of ivermectin studies for COVID-19 treatment, examining methodological issues, potential fraud, and confounding factors. He concludes that ivermectin likely doesn't significantly reduce COVID mortality except potentially in areas with high parasitic worm infections. The post explores broader issues around scientific credibility, fraud detection, and public trust in science. Shorter summary