Scott Alexander responds to Tyler Cowen about USAID funding, correcting his own previous claims about overhead costs while maintaining that Cowen's criticism of USAID was misleading and potentially harmful. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Tyler Cowen's criticism of his previous post about USAID funding. He addresses several points: whether Cowen endorsed Rubio's claims about USAID waste, the true nature of overhead costs in USAID-funded organizations, and the broader debate about foreign aid effectiveness. Scott shows that actual administrative overhead in major USAID partners like Catholic Relief Services is much lower than previously thought (around 6-7% rather than 30%), admits his mistake on this point, but maintains his criticism of Cowen's original post as misleading. He argues that USAID's work is predominantly focused on essential humanitarian aid rather than wasteful programs. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of various news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, technological advancements, cultural phenomena, and historical anecdotes. The post is structured as a numbered list, with each item briefly summarizing a piece of news or information. Some notable items include a new schizophrenia drug approval, YouGov polling results on various historical figures, findings on genetic IQ changes over time, and updates on AI technology and its implications. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to Robin Hanson's reply on medical effectiveness, clarifying interpretations and reiterating arguments about the limitations of insurance experiments in evaluating medical care. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Robin Hanson's reply to his original post on medical effectiveness. Scott clarifies his interpretation of Hanson's views, discusses potential misunderstandings, and reiterates his arguments about the limitations of insurance experiments in evaluating medical effectiveness. He also addresses specific points Hanson made about cancer treatment, health insurance studies, and p-hacking in medical research. Scott concludes by restating his position that while some medicine is ineffective, it's crucial to distinguish between effective and ineffective treatments rather than dismissing medicine broadly. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander challenges Robin Hanson's claim that medicine doesn't work by analyzing health insurance studies and presenting evidence of medicine's effectiveness. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Robin Hanson's claim that medicine doesn't work, analyzing three major health insurance experiments (RAND, Oregon, and Karnataka) and other studies. He argues that these studies are underpowered to detect medication effects and don't support Hanson's conclusion, citing evidence of medicine's effectiveness in improving survival rates for various diseases. Shorter summary

A critical review of 'Why Nations Fail' that examines the authors' academic work and methodology, while questioning the book's quality and practical implications. Longer summary

This review critiques 'Why Nations Fail' by Acemoglu and Robinson (AR), arguing that while the book itself is not very good, AR's academic papers present a more compelling case for their thesis that political institutions are the main determinant of economic growth. The reviewer explains AR's methodology using instrumental variables, discusses their evidence and criticisms, and ultimately concludes that even if AR are correct, their extremely long-run focus may not be very useful for practical policymaking or development efforts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander rebuts Bryan Caplan's arguments about mental illness, criticizing the preference/constraint dichotomy and providing counterarguments to Caplan's claims. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Bryan Caplan's latest arguments about mental illness, criticizing Caplan's preference/constraint dichotomy and his claim that mental illnesses are just voluntary preferences. Scott argues that the distinction between preferences and constraints is not clear-cut, and that both physical and mental illnesses involve a mix of the two. He provides several counterarguments, including examples from physical illnesses, gradients of ability, and cases where the 'gun to the head' test fails. Scott also discusses how the framing of conditions as preferences or constraints depends on factors like ease of satisfaction and social norms. He concludes by rejecting Caplan's argument that one must either deny mental illness exists or classify homosexuality as a mental illness. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and news items, covering topics from architecture and history to AI developments and scientific studies, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, history, animal welfare, optical illusions, scientific studies, AI developments, demographics, and more. Scott provides brief commentary on many of the items, sometimes expressing his personal opinions or highlighting interesting aspects. The post includes both light-hearted topics (like unusual baby names) and more serious discussions (such as AI safety concerns and research on gender bias in academia). Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticism of his post on housing density and prices, refining but largely maintaining his argument that increased density can raise local prices. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about housing density and prices. He addresses several key points, including whether density causes desirability, the role of jobs and amenities in city desirability, Chinese ghost cities, comparisons to Tokyo, accusations of misunderstanding economics, and opinions from notable experts. Scott refines some of his views but maintains his core argument that increasing density within a city can increase housing prices by making the city more desirable, while acknowledging this effect may be limited or outweighed by other factors in many cases. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a curated list of 41 diverse links and news items, covering topics from linguistics and technology to politics and popular culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 41 diverse links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. The topics range from linguistics, technology, and politics to economics, science, and popular culture. Scott provides brief commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or skepticism. The post includes updates on current events, interesting scientific findings, cultural trends, and academic debates. It also features some visual content like graphs, images, and embedded tweets. Shorter summary

A review of Richard Hanania's book arguing that public choice theory, not grand strategy, explains US foreign policy decisions and their often devastating consequences. Longer summary

This book review discusses Richard Hanania's 'Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy', which argues that public choice theory better explains US foreign policy than the unitary actor model. The review covers the book's key arguments, including how special interest groups shape foreign policy, the incoherence of American interventions, and the devastating effects of sanctions. It also explores the book's relevance to current events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and potential implications for nuclear security and effective altruism. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews competing methodologies for predicting AI timelines, focusing on Ajeya Cotra's biological anchors approach and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Ajeya Cotra's report on AI timelines for Open Philanthropy, which uses biological anchors to estimate when transformative AI might arrive, and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique of this methodology. The post explains Cotra's approach, Yudkowsky's objections, and various responses, ultimately concluding that while the report may not significantly change existing beliefs, the debate highlights important considerations in AI forecasting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from scientific studies to cultural phenomena, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and topics. Scott covers a wide range of subjects including scientific studies, cultural phenomena, economic trends, AI developments, and current events. The post includes commentary on each link, often with Scott's personal insights or opinions. Some recurring themes include AI progress, social science research, economic inequality, and cultural shifts. The tone is informative and slightly humorous, with Scott occasionally adding caveats about the reliability of certain claims or studies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 34 varied links and pieces of information on topics including science, history, politics, and technology, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 34 diverse links and snippets of information on various topics. It covers subjects ranging from Jeff Bezos' biological father, to studies on Christianity's growth, to climate change discussions, to updates on AI progress. The post also includes commentary on current events like the University of Austin controversy and political polling trends. Many of the links discuss recent scientific studies or historical anecdotes, often with Scott's brief analysis or opinion added. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various applications and recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, covering topics from election betting to teacher evaluation and social media moderation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. He starts with the concept of a Keynesian beauty contest applied to long-term forecasting, then analyzes recent developments in PredictIt markets, particularly the Virginia gubernatorial election. He explores the idea of using prediction markets to evaluate teacher performance, and examines some recent Metaculus predictions on SpaceX valuation, college enrollment, and AI code assistance adoption. The post also covers Vitalik Buterin's proposal for using prediction markets in social media moderation, and concludes with various links to prediction market-related news and articles. Shorter summary

A compilation of 30 diverse links on various topics including science, history, technology, and culture, with brief commentaries by Scott Alexander. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 30 diverse links and brief discussions on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including scientific findings, historical anecdotes, technological developments, cultural phenomena, and current events. The post touches on topics such as oil spills, architecture, IQ research, chronic pain therapy, alcohol consumption, AI safety, and more. Scott Alexander provides short commentaries or explanations for each link, often adding his own insights or connecting the information to broader themes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Bryan Caplan's constraints vs preferences model of mental illness, proposing instead a goals vs urges framework that better explains both mental and physical health issues. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Bryan Caplan's critique of psychiatry, focusing on Caplan's distinction between constraints and preferences in mental illness. Scott argues that this model is flawed and doesn't accurately represent mental or even many physical illnesses. He proposes a more nuanced model based on goals (endorsed preferences) and urges (unendorsed preferences), using examples to show how this better explains behavior in both mental and physical health contexts. Scott concludes that this model allows for a more libertarian approach, supporting individuals in achieving their goals, whether through addressing constraints or managing urges. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links to interesting articles, studies, and news items on topics ranging from history and science to politics and culture. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including Russian city flags, archaeological hoaxes, growth mindset research, atomic gardening, AI takeoff scenarios, UFO patents, antibiotic resistance, freelance journalism laws, religious trends in the Middle East, presidential candidate support by occupation, civility in politics, pollution comparisons, open borders debates, gender reveal party accidents, historical theories about Western psychology, entrepreneurship age trends, socialist proposals, WWI myths, biological feedback mechanisms, and various other curiosities and current events. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques the use of bias arguments in debates, explaining why they're often counterproductive and suggesting more constructive ways to address bias. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the problems with using bias arguments in debates. He argues that these arguments are often unproductive because everyone is biased, people are hypersensitive to biases against their side, it's hard to define bias, and bias arguments don't lead anywhere productive. He suggests that bias arguments can be useful when they provide new information, can be quantified, offer unbiased alternatives, or in private conversations between trusted friends. Scott emphasizes that first-person bias arguments (recognizing one's own biases) are the most valuable, as they allow for honest self-reflection and improvement. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering technology, science, economics, politics, and culture, including critiques of studies, interesting scientific findings, and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including technology, science, economics, politics, and culture. Some highlights include: a list of places branding themselves as the next Silicon Valley, a study on declining fertility in dogs, critiques of bad scientific studies, an article on antidepressant tapering, data on value drift in effective altruism, and discussions on the Mueller Report's impact on media credibility. The post also includes links to various interesting facts, studies, and developments in fields such as nutrition, drug use, e-cigarettes, and urban development. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics including architecture, history, science, politics, and economics, offering brief commentaries and insights on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and brief commentaries on diverse topics. Scott Alexander covers subjects ranging from architecture and history to science, politics, and economics. He discusses the Obama Presidential Library, unusual historical facts, effective altruism, AI policy careers, Bitcoin mining, and scientific studies on parenting and voter ID laws. The post also touches on topics like gender discrimination in tech, nuclear energy startups, and dietary trends. Throughout, Scott provides his characteristic mix of curiosity, skepticism, and humor in discussing these wide-ranging subjects. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes wage stagnation since 1973, examining various explanations and concluding that while wages have risen 40-50%, there is still significant decoupling from productivity due to multiple factors. Longer summary

This post analyzes the apparent wage stagnation and decoupling from productivity since 1973. Scott examines various explanations, including measurement issues, demographic changes, inflation calculations, increasing inequality, and policy changes. He concludes that wages have actually risen about 40-50% since 1973, but there is still a significant 50% decoupling from productivity. The main factors are increasing wage inequality (40%), inflation miscalculations (35%), and labor vs. capital inequality (15%). Scott breaks down potential causes and their relative importance, while noting several remaining questions and uncertainties. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering history, science, politics, culture, and curiosities, presented with humor and interesting facts. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and interesting facts across multiple domains. It covers historical peace treaties, scientific research on diminishing returns in science, geopolitical tensions in Eurovision, education rankings, religious schisms, marijuana regulations, scientific publishing news, experimental archaeology, neuroscience discoveries, geographical facts, international disputes, philosophy humor, rationality-related subreddits, healthcare transparency efforts, academic scandals, mathematical breakthroughs, political trends, cultural oddities, and linguistic curiosities. The post maintains a light, often humorous tone while presenting a wide array of information. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents counterarguments to YIMBY housing policies, questioning their effectiveness and considering NIMBY perspectives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander steelmans the NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) position against YIMBYism (Yes In My Back Yard) in housing policy debates, particularly focused on San Francisco. He argues that: 1) San Francisco's housing growth rate is not uniquely low, 2) Building more housing may not significantly lower rents, 3) Increased housing supply could potentially increase rents due to agglomeration effects, 4) NIMBYs have valid reasons to oppose development, and 5) Increasing housing supply might trap more people in an undesirable equilibrium. He concludes by acknowledging the lack of clear alternatives but expressing skepticism that simply building more housing will solve the problem. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that public outrage over specific misdeeds is not arbitrary, but a strategic way to enforce important social norms with limited resources. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Bryan Caplan's article about the arbitrariness of public outrage, proposing a different theory. He argues that people get upset over violations of established norms because it's an efficient way to use limited enforcement resources. Scott uses examples of police prioritizing certain crimes and the international response to chemical weapons to illustrate his point. He extends this reasoning to explain public outrage over sexual harassment and suggests that enforcing taboos against clearly defined bad behaviors can be more effective than trying to prevent all forms of misconduct. The post concludes by applying this logic to the case of China's treatment of Uighurs, arguing that strongly enforcing the norm against putting minorities in concentration camps can have broader preventative effects. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his previous post comparing basic income to basic job guarantee programs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to various comments on his previous post about basic income vs. basic jobs. He covers topics like different countries' experiences with job guarantee programs, potential issues with UBI implementation, economic considerations, and philosophical arguments for and against UBI and basic jobs. The post aims to provide a balanced view of the debate by highlighting thoughtful comments from multiple perspectives. Shorter summary