Scott explores the 'missing heritability' problem in genetics, where twin studies show traits like IQ and educational attainment are highly heritable but newer genomic methods find much lower heritability, analyzing various potential explanations for this discrepancy. Longer summary

The post examines the 'missing heritability' problem in genetics, where twin studies consistently show behavioral traits like IQ and educational attainment are substantially heritable (around 40-60%), while newer genomic methods find much lower heritability (around 15-20%). Scott reviews the history of behavioral genetics research, explains various study methodologies and their potential biases, and analyzes different hypotheses for this discrepancy. He examines whether twin studies might be flawed, whether newer methods might be missing important genetic effects, and whether educational attainment might be an unusually problematic trait to study. While acknowledging remaining mysteries, he tentatively concludes that twin studies are probably largely correct and that newer methods may be missing rare variants and genetic interactions. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes research on whether longer prison sentences reduce crime, examining studies on deterrence, incapacitation, and aftereffects, to conclude that while prison does decrease crime through incapacitation, it's less cost-effective than other methods like policing. Longer summary

This post examines the relationship between prison sentences and crime reduction through three mechanisms: deterrence (scaring potential criminals), incapacitation (preventing prisoners from committing crimes), and aftereffects (post-release behavior changes). Through analysis of multiple studies and reviews, Scott finds that deterrence effects are minimal, incapacitation has strong positive effects (preventing about 7 crimes per prisoner-year), and aftereffects range from slightly beneficial to harmful depending on circumstances. He concludes that while prison does reduce crime, with a 10% increase in incarceration reducing crime by about 3%, it's less cost-effective than alternatives like increased policing. The post ends by examining practical challenges in the justice system that prevent effective handling of repeat offenders. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a biography of John von Neumann, exploring the mathematician's life, genius, and views on existential risk from technology. Longer summary

This post reviews 'The Man From The Future', a biography of John von Neumann by Ananyo Bhattacharya. It covers von Neumann's early life and education in Hungary, his extraordinary intellectual abilities, his work on various scientific fields, and his views on existential risks from technology. The review explores theories about why so many geniuses emerged from Hungary in the early 20th century, details von Neumann's personality and social skills, and discusses his controversial views on nuclear war. It ends with von Neumann's thoughts on how humanity might survive the dangers of rapid technological progress. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews competing methodologies for predicting AI timelines, focusing on Ajeya Cotra's biological anchors approach and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Ajeya Cotra's report on AI timelines for Open Philanthropy, which uses biological anchors to estimate when transformative AI might arrive, and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique of this methodology. The post explains Cotra's approach, Yudkowsky's objections, and various responses, ultimately concluding that while the report may not significantly change existing beliefs, the debate highlights important considerations in AI forecasting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Daron Acemoglu's Washington Post article on AI risks, highlighting flawed logic and unsupported claims about AI's current impacts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques an article by Daron Acemoglu in the Washington Post about AI risks. He identifies the main flaw as Acemoglu's argument that because AI is dangerous now, it can't be dangerous in the future. Scott argues this logic is flawed and that present and future AI risks are not mutually exclusive. He also criticizes Acemoglu's claims about AI's current negative impacts, particularly on employment, as not well-supported by evidence. Scott discusses the challenges of evaluating new technologies' impacts and argues that superintelligent AI poses unique risks different from narrow AI. He concludes by criticizing the tendency of respected figures to dismiss AI risk concerns without proper engagement with the arguments. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Wizard and the Prophet' by Charles Mann, exploring contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt and Norman Borlaug. Longer summary

This review of Charles Mann's 'The Wizard and the Prophet' explores the contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt (the 'Prophet') and Norman Borlaug (the 'Wizard'). The reviewer initially favors Borlaug's Wizardly approach of using science and technology to solve problems, but later acknowledges the complexity of modern systems may require a more holistic approach. The review covers the book's structure, discussing the biographies of Vogt and Borlaug, and then exploring four key areas: food, water, energy, and climate change. The reviewer concludes by reflecting on the challenges of COVID-19 and the need to continue striving for improvement despite increasing complexity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander's links post covers historical oddities, scientific studies, social issues, and tech developments, ranging from pet monkeys to AI progress. Longer summary

This links post covers a wide range of topics, including historical curiosities, scientific studies, social issues, and technology developments. Some notable items include: a discussion of ways things have improved since the 1980s, an analysis of Alcoholics Anonymous effectiveness, insights into national IQ correlations with development, and updates on COVID-19 responses. The post also touches on topics like depression treatment, artificial intelligence progress, and healthcare system comparisons. Shorter summary

TracingWoodgrains and Michael Pershan analyze the effectiveness of ability grouping, acceleration, and personalization software in serving advanced students in the education system. Longer summary

This post is an entry to the Adversarial Collaboration Contest by TracingWoodgrains and Michael Pershan, discussing whether the education system adequately serves advanced students. It examines three main approaches: ability grouping, acceleration, and personalization software. The authors review research on each approach, discuss their pros and cons, and explore the tensions between different educational goals. They conclude with practical advice for parents, educators, and educational reformers. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and brief commentaries on topics ranging from ancient calendars to fusion research, social trends, and economic analyses. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links and brief summaries on various topics, including calendar systems, scientific studies, social trends, economics, politics, and technology. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects, from an ancient Persian calendar to fusion power research, social psychology effects, philosophical hiring biases, and economic analyses. The post includes commentary on recent news, scientific findings, and cultural phenomena, often with a touch of humor or skepticism. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines evidence for technological unemployment, finding little current impact but signs of 'technological underemployment' pushing workers to lower-skill jobs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the arguments for and against technological unemployment, analyzing labor force participation rates, manufacturing job losses, and economic data to determine if automation is currently causing significant job displacement. He concludes that while there's little evidence of technological unemployment happening right now, there are signs of 'technological underemployment' where automation is pushing workers from middle-skill to lower-skill jobs. The long-term impacts remain uncertain, with economists divided on whether this is a temporary adjustment or a new normal. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander recounts his frustrating attempt to conduct a study on a bipolar disorder screening test, highlighting the excessive bureaucratic hurdles that ultimately led to the study's abandonment. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes his frustrating experience trying to conduct a study on the validity of a bipolar disorder screening test. He encounters numerous bureaucratic hurdles from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), including issues with consent forms, data security, and patient privacy. Despite his best efforts and those of his colleagues, the study is eventually abandoned due to the overwhelming regulatory burden. Scott reflects on how this experience has made him skeptical of the current research approval process, arguing that it disproportionately hinders small-scale, independent researchers while favoring large institutions. He concludes by expressing hope for reform in the scientific research process to make it more accessible and efficient. Shorter summary

Scott examines the phenomenon of Hungarian scientific geniuses in the early 20th century, attributing it to a high concentration of high-IQ Ashkenazi Jews in Budapest rather than exceptional education. Longer summary

Scott explores the phenomenon of Hungarian scientific geniuses in the early 20th century, initially attributed to exceptional education. He debunks this theory, showing that many of these geniuses were prodigies before formal schooling. Scott then reveals that all these geniuses were Jewish, linking their success to the high IQ of Ashkenazi Jews as explained by Cochran, Hardy, and Harpending's theory. He notes that Hungary, particularly Budapest, had an unusually high concentration of Jews at that time. The post concludes by discussing the tragic end of this golden age due to the Holocaust, and speculates on whether we've lost something unique from that era of scientific progress. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links from early 2017 covering drugs, education, politics, science and history, with Scott's commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a links post where Scott Alexander shares various interesting articles and studies he's come across. The post covers a wide range of topics including new drug developments, education statistics, political events around Trump's presidency, scientific discoveries, and historical curiosities. The format follows a typical links post structure with brief commentary on each link, often adding context or witty observations. Many items focus on current events from early 2017, including Trump administration policies and European political trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his experiences and insights from the Asilomar Conference on Beneficial AI, covering various aspects of AI development, risks, and ethical considerations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience at the Asilomar Conference on Beneficial AI. The conference brought together diverse experts to discuss AI risks, from technological unemployment to superintelligence. Key points include: the normalization of AI safety research, economists' views on technological unemployment, proposed solutions like retraining workers, advances in AI goal alignment research, improvements in AlphaGo and its implications, issues with AI transparency, political considerations in AI development, and debates on ethical AI principles. Scott notes the star-studded attendance and the surreal experience of discussing crucial AI topics with leading experts in the field. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering current events, scientific studies, and cultural developments, with brief commentary on each story's significance or implications. Longer summary

This is a collection of links covering various topics from current events, science, and culture. It includes news about the seasteading institute's deal with French Polynesia, a meta-analysis on red meat and cardiovascular disease, a discussion of authoritarianism by Tom Pepinsky, and various studies on topics like growth mindset and the Flynn Effect. The links also cover political developments like Obama's attempts to close Guantanamo, Trump's health picks, and new research on school choice experiments. The post maintains a neutral tone while providing brief commentary and context for each link. Shorter summary

Scott argues against Vox's proposal for drug price controls, citing studies that such policies would significantly reduce pharmaceutical innovation and potentially cost millions of life-years long-term. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Sarah Kliff's Vox article about drug pricing, arguing that her proposal for price controls on brand-name drugs would significantly decrease pharmaceutical innovation. He cites multiple economic studies suggesting price controls reduce R&D and new drug development. Scott argues that while price controls might lower costs in the short-term, they could cost millions of life-years long-term by reducing new drug creation. He suggests focusing on increasing generic drug competition and reducing unnecessary prescriptions of expensive brand-name drugs with cheap generic alternatives as better solutions to high drug prices. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander refutes PZ Myers' race car analogy against genetic engineering for intelligence, showing that high IQ positively correlates with many beneficial traits. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques PZ Myers' argument against genetic engineering for intelligence, which uses a race car analogy to suggest optimizing for intelligence might trade off against other important traits. Scott shows that, contrary to this intuition, high IQ correlates positively with many desirable traits like longevity, height, and health. He explores possible explanations for this, including heterozygosity advantages, mutational load, and trade-offs with traits important in evolutionary history but less so now. Scott concludes that while caution is warranted, the race car argument is likely less of an impediment to genetic engineering than it might seem. Shorter summary

A curated collection of interesting links covering academic debates, cultural issues, economics, and scientific discoveries from around the web. Longer summary

This is a links post containing various interesting articles and news items from around the web. The post covers topics ranging from academic debates, cultural issues, economics, and scientific discoveries. Notable items include discussions about political correctness at Oberlin, a replication debate in economics, SpaceX's successful rocket landing, and various historical curiosities like the Roman charioteer Gaius Appuleius Diocles and the Sedan nuclear test mishap. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that OpenAI's open-source strategy for AI development could be dangerous, potentially risking human extinction if AI progresses rapidly. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques OpenAI's strategy of making AI research open-source, arguing it could be dangerous if AI develops rapidly. He compares it to giving nuclear weapon plans to everyone, potentially leading to catastrophe. The post analyzes the risks and benefits of open AI, discusses the potential for a hard takeoff in AI development, and examines the AI control problem. Scott expresses concern that competition in AI development may be forcing desperate strategies, potentially risking human extinction. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering recent research, controversies, and developments across various fields including science, economics, politics and sociology, with Scott's brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a link roundup post covering various topics and recent research findings. Scott shares interesting links about economics, science, politics, and sociology. The post includes studies on racial bias in policing, diet soda effects, mass shootings statistics, refugee integration in Sweden, and various other topics. He also discusses controversial topics like cultural appropriation and gun control debates, while maintaining a balanced and analytical perspective. The format follows Scott's typical style of providing brief commentary and context for each link shared. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that polyamory's low black representation is part of a broader pattern across many subcultures, proposing general explanations and criticizing how this issue is often weaponized. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the claim that polyamory has a problem with underrepresentation of black people. He argues this is part of a broader pattern where many subcultures and interest groups have low black representation, listing numerous examples. He proposes several general factors that likely contribute to this pattern, such as affluence requirements, education levels, and cultural factors. Scott criticizes how underrepresentation is often used disingenuously to attack groups, and expresses frustration that polyamory is being singled out for criticism when the pattern is so widespread. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links from November 2014 covering science, technology, politics, and culture, with Scott's commentary and analysis on each. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting stories and articles from around the web. The post covers a wide range of topics, from scientific discoveries like saltwater crops and hover technology, to social issues like online harassment statistics and Ethiopia's economic growth. Scott provides brief commentary and often humorous observations about each link, while maintaining his characteristic analytical approach to evaluating claims and studies. Shorter summary

Scott shares a diverse collection of interesting links and brief commentary on topics including linguistics, science, economics, and social issues. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and brief commentary on various topics. Scott covers subjects ranging from linguistics and philosophy to scientific discoveries and social issues. He discusses recent research on evolution, cold fusion claims, autism theories, and dark matter detection. The post also touches on economic topics like immigration effects and living costs in major cities. Scott includes some humorous content and critiques of social policies in countries like Saudi Arabia. The tone is informative and slightly humorous, with Scott offering brief personal opinions on some of the topics discussed. Shorter summary

The post explores the contradiction between studies suggesting elite influence on policy and those indicating money's limited impact on politics, offering several hypotheses to reconcile these findings. Longer summary

This post discusses two seemingly contradictory political science findings: one suggesting that elite opinion strongly influences US policy, and another indicating that money has little impact on politics. The author presents several hypotheses to reconcile these findings, including the possibility that legislators are themselves elites, that elites control cultural institutions, or that money influences politics through lobbying rather than campaign contributions. The post critically examines each hypothesis, considering their strengths and weaknesses in explaining the apparent contradiction. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the process of 'crystallizing patterns' in thinking, discussing its benefits and potential pitfalls across various domains. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'crystallizing patterns' in thinking, using examples from the Less Wrong sequences and C.S. Lewis's writings. He discusses how naming and defining patterns can make them easier to recognize and think about, potentially changing how people view certain issues. The post examines whether this process can ever be wrong or counterproductive, concluding that while it can sometimes be misleading, it's generally beneficial if done carefully. Scott uses various examples to illustrate his points, including political correctness, mainstream media, and religious concepts. Shorter summary