Scott's monthly links roundup covering AI progress, the coming flood of philanthropic funding to effective altruism from AI companies, new research on persuasion and forecasting, and various scientific and cultural topics ranging from dementia prevention to Romanian politicians' embarrassing quotes. Longer summary

This is the second part of Scott Alexander's monthly links roundup for July 2026, covering a wide range of topics including AI developments, effective altruism funding waves, healthcare research, and cultural curiosities. Major themes include Chinese AI models catching up to the US (though still 6-12 months behind), the coming "third wave" of American philanthropy from AI company equity donations potentially flooding effective altruism with $40 billion/year, AI systems now outperforming humans at persuasion in specific contexts, and various scientific findings from dementia prevention to infinite ethics. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious technical analysis, historical oddities, and humorous observations, with extensive linking to sources and ongoing debates in the rationalist and effective altruist communities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents his monthly collection of interesting links and developments across technology, science, culture, and policy, with personal commentary on each item. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares a collection of 61 interesting links, spanning topics from AI development and scientific studies to cultural observations and policy discussions. The post covers diverse subjects including GPT-5's reception, genetic research, religious demographics, urban development, mental health studies, and various scientific discoveries. Scott provides commentary and analysis on many of these items, often connecting them to broader themes or offering his perspective on controversial issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander and 1DaySooner outline potential positive health policy initiatives that could emerge under three key Trump administration health appointees: Jim O'Neill, Marty Makary, and Jay Bhattacharya. Longer summary

This post discusses potential health policy proposals under a hypothetical second Trump administration, focusing on three key appointees and their possible initiatives. The piece examines Jim O'Neill as Deputy Secretary of HHS, highlighting his potential work on organ donation compensation and longevity research; Marty Makary as FDA Commissioner, discussing FDA transparency and regulatory improvements; and Jay Bhattacharya as NIH Director, exploring research funding reforms and challenge trials. Written in collaboration with 1DaySooner, the post specifically focuses on optimistic scenarios that could emerge from these appointments. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes research on whether longer prison sentences reduce crime, examining studies on deterrence, incapacitation, and aftereffects, to conclude that while prison does decrease crime through incapacitation, it's less cost-effective than other methods like policing. Longer summary

This post examines the relationship between prison sentences and crime reduction through three mechanisms: deterrence (scaring potential criminals), incapacitation (preventing prisoners from committing crimes), and aftereffects (post-release behavior changes). Through analysis of multiple studies and reviews, Scott finds that deterrence effects are minimal, incapacitation has strong positive effects (preventing about 7 crimes per prisoner-year), and aftereffects range from slightly beneficial to harmful depending on circumstances. He concludes that while prison does reduce crime, with a 10% increase in incarceration reducing crime by about 3%, it's less cost-effective than alternatives like increased policing. The post ends by examining practical challenges in the justice system that prevent effective handling of repeat offenders. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of various news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, technological advancements, cultural phenomena, and historical anecdotes. The post is structured as a numbered list, with each item briefly summarizing a piece of news or information. Some notable items include a new schizophrenia drug approval, YouGov polling results on various historical figures, findings on genetic IQ changes over time, and updates on AI technology and its implications. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes comments on his healthcare effectiveness debate with Robin Hanson, including clarifications, study author responses, and reader perspectives on various healthcare topics. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's recent discussion with Robin Hanson about healthcare effectiveness. It includes responses from Robin Hanson clarifying his position, comments from the authors of a study on health insurance and mortality, and various reader perspectives on healthcare, medical waste, and specific medical treatments. The post touches on topics like the statistical analysis of healthcare studies, the value of preventive medicine, and the complexities of measuring healthcare outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander challenges Robin Hanson's claim that medicine doesn't work by analyzing health insurance studies and presenting evidence of medicine's effectiveness. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Robin Hanson's claim that medicine doesn't work, analyzing three major health insurance experiments (RAND, Oregon, and Karnataka) and other studies. He argues that these studies are underpowered to detect medication effects and don't support Hanson's conclusion, citing evidence of medicine's effectiveness in improving survival rates for various diseases. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander's monthly links post covers diverse topics from AI developments and genetic research to historical anecdotes and local news, with a mix of serious analysis and humor. Longer summary

This links post covers a wide range of topics, including recent research on the Flynn Effect, factors influencing fertility rates, genetic engineering, AI developments, political issues, historical anecdotes, and local Bay Area news. Scott highlights interesting studies, cultural phenomena, and recent events, often with a humorous or ironic tone. He touches on subjects like universal basic income experiments, the formation of elite groups, and changes in political dynamics. The post also includes several visual elements like unusual architectural designs and tattoos. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander recounts his journey to fatherhood, blending personal experiences with broader reflections on progress, rationality, and the future his newborn twins will face. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares his experience becoming a father to twins, intertwining personal anecdotes with philosophical reflections on parenthood, human progress, and the future. He starts with a humorous account of his fertility clinic visit, then describes the challenges of pregnancy and choosing names. The post explores the concept of children as 'surprisal-minimization engines' adapting to the world, and reflects on the advancements in child mortality and healthcare. Scott concludes by expressing both concern and hope for his children's future in a rapidly changing world, viewing them as 'ambassadors to the singularity'. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 38 links and news items, covering topics from book reviews and religious history to AI developments and political trends, with brief summaries and comments on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 38 diverse links and news items covering topics such as book reviews, religious history, economic forecasts, libertarianism, crime statistics, scientific studies, AI developments, educational policies, and political trends. Scott Alexander provides brief summaries or comments on each item, often with a mix of factual information and his own perspective. The links range from academic studies to social media posts, covering current events, historical anecdotes, and ongoing debates in various fields. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various explanations for why top students attend the best colleges, including optimistic views about maximizing potential and cynical views about signaling and 'privilege laundering'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the question of why top students are sent to the best colleges, presenting both optimistic and cynical explanations. He discusses the potential benefits of matching high-performing students with expert teachers, but also considers the signaling theory of education. The post delves into a fascinating hypothesis about elite colleges functioning as 'privilege laundering' machines, mixing meritocratic and privileged students to create a universally recognized signal of merit. Scott examines the potential advantages and drawbacks of this system, concluding that while imperfect, it may be preferable to alternatives that completely disregard merit. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 57 diverse links and brief commentaries on topics ranging from politics and psychology to technology and culture. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of 57 interesting links and brief commentaries on various topics, including politics, psychology, technology, culture, and science. The post covers a wide range of subjects, from corporate takeovers and European stereotypes to psychedelic research and AI developments. It also includes discussions on mental health, education, and current events. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary

This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a book comparing international healthcare systems, finding it informative but lacking in explaining why some systems succeed while others fail. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Which Country Has The World's Best Health Care?' by Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, a book comparing healthcare systems across 11 countries. The book categorizes systems into five types, from fully socialized to mostly privatized. Emanuel reluctantly concludes that Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Taiwan have the best systems. Scott finds the book informative but criticizes its organization and limited scope. He expresses confusion about why some systems work better than others, particularly regarding drug pricing and budget setting. The review highlights the complexity of healthcare economics and the difficulty in understanding why the US system performs poorly compared to seemingly similar systems in other countries. Shorter summary

Lars Doucet presents evidence that land is still a major economic factor in modern times, contrary to some economists' claims. Longer summary

This post, written by Lars Doucet, is the first in a series examining the empirical basis for Georgism. It focuses on whether land is still a significant economic factor in modern times, as some economists argue it isn't. Doucet presents evidence that land is indeed a major economic factor, showing that it represents a large portion of urban real estate value, bank loans, personal assets, and government revenue potential. He also demonstrates that land ownership is highly concentrated among the wealthy, contributing to economic inequality. The post concludes that land is a 'really big deal' in modern economies, contrary to some economists' claims. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and commentary on topics ranging from housing policy and employment discrimination to conspiracy theories and vaccine hesitancy, with a mix of analysis, skepticism, and humor. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and commentary on various topics. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects including housing policy, creativity tests, Chinese tech regulation, employment discrimination studies, conspiracy theories, vaccine hesitancy among PhDs, and public health policies. He also shares intriguing images, discusses scientific controversies, and provides commentary on current events and social issues. The post maintains a mix of seriousness and humor throughout, often with a skeptical or analytical perspective on the topics presented. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that missing a year or two of school is unlikely to have significant long-term effects on children's education, presenting evidence and critiquing contrary studies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that missing a year or two of school due to COVID-19 or other reasons is unlikely to have significant long-term effects on children's education. He presents evidence from various studies and experiments, such as the Benezet experiment, unschooling, and different countries' school hours, to support his claim. Scott also critiques studies that show negative effects of school absences, arguing they are often correlational and fail to account for confounders. He acknowledges some potential non-academic benefits of schooling and provides his confidence levels on various predictions about the effects of missing school. Shorter summary

Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective. Longer summary

Scott analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdowns, examining data from Sweden, US states, and Europe. He finds that lockdowns likely reduced transmission rates, with targeted measures like school closures being more effective than stay-at-home orders. The analysis suggests lockdowns saved lives but at significant economic and emotional costs, with the cost-effectiveness varying between countries and time periods. Scott concludes that fast, well-targeted lockdowns may have been optimal, but emphasizes the high uncertainty in these estimates. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 35 diverse links covering scientific studies, historical facts, cultural observations, and technological developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of 35 interesting links on various topics. These include scientific studies, historical anecdotes, cultural observations, and technological developments. Some notable items are: a failed replication of the link between childhood screen time and attention problems, insights into the Canadian tech scene, a map of Reddit, and a technology for animating old photos. The post also covers topics like urban planning, economic policies, and quirky historical facts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines a study showing that Napoleonic reforms led to better economic outcomes, challenging the idea that evolved systems are always superior to designed ones. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a 2009 paper by Daron Acemoglu et al. that challenges the idea that organically evolved systems are superior to designed ones. The study found that areas invaded by Napoleon and subjected to radical institutional reforms experienced more rapid economic growth. Scott explores the implications of this study, its potential limitations, and how it challenges common beliefs about the superiority of evolved institutions over designed ones. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines prediction markets, focusing on Metaculus forecasts for AI development and its potential impacts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews several prediction markets, focusing on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus. He discusses the challenges of using Polymarket and the potential of Kalshi as a regulated futures exchange. The bulk of the post analyzes Metaculus predictions on AI-related topics, including the timeline for AGI development, human-machine intelligence parity, economic impacts of AI, and specific AI achievements. Scott notes the wide range of predictions and the interesting ways prediction markets can quantify expert opinions on complex topics. Shorter summary

The post critically examines the impact of India's 1991 economic reforms, suggesting that the country's economic growth began earlier and that the causes are more complex than commonly believed. Longer summary

This post examines the economic reforms in India and their impact on poverty reduction and economic growth. The author challenges the widely held belief that the 1991 reforms were the primary cause of India's economic boom. By analyzing various studies and economic data, the post suggests that India's growth trajectory began earlier, possibly in the mid-1970s or early 1980s. The exact causes of this growth remain unclear, with various factors such as trade liberalization, public investment, and political attitudes towards business being potential contributors. The author also discusses the potential impact of socialist policies on developing countries and the importance of understanding these economic shifts for future policy-making and arguments against certain forms of socialism. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering recent studies, unusual historical events, technological developments, and various curiosities across multiple fields. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and news items on diverse topics. It covers studies on pornography's effects, unusual military proposals, charter schools' success, climate change predictions, animal rights, restorative justice in schools, parenting advice, sexual selection theory, AI-generated content, breastfeeding patterns, visualization of classical music, Soviet whaling, cancel culture, housing legislation, embryo screening, retractions of scientific studies, gene drives, drug pricing, UFO sightings, cryopreservation, air conditioning efficiency, genetic testing for medication response, social justice terminology trends, napping benefits, nootropics survey results, Bitcoin price surge, transformer architecture in machine learning, fact-checking errors in popular books, challenges to persistence research, fringe ideologies in Japan, AI progress on language understanding, climate change risks, and various other curiosities and scientific findings. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how increased rational debate doesn't always lead to truth, using personal and societal examples, and suggests ways to carefully approach traditions and changes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of asymmetric weapons, which work better for good guys than bad guys, and how sometimes this asymmetry can be reversed. He discusses how increased rational debate and resources don't always lead to truth, using examples like minimum wage debates and personal habits. The post then examines societal-level examples, such as debates about politicians' salaries and early 20th-century socialism. Scott concludes with suggestions on how to approach traditions and changes carefully, emphasizing the importance of understanding before discarding, tolerating unexplained behaviors, and gradually improving on obsolete traditions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes how FDA regulations contribute to drug shortages and high prices, using buspirone and insulin as examples. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses two issues in the pharmaceutical industry: the buspirone shortage and high insulin prices. He argues that both problems stem from regulatory issues, particularly FDA policies that inadvertently encourage monopolies and make it difficult for generic manufacturers to enter the market. For buspirone, the Generic Drug User Fee Amendments (GDUFA) of 2012 and 2017 have created a fee structure that favors large-scale monopolies. For insulin, the complex nature of biologics and the FDA's stringent approval process for biosimilars make it extremely difficult and expensive to produce generic versions. Scott criticizes the tendency to blame these issues on the free market, arguing instead that poorly designed regulations are the root cause. Shorter summary