Scott's monthly links roundup covering AI progress, the coming flood of philanthropic funding to effective altruism from AI companies, new research on persuasion and forecasting, and various scientific and cultural topics ranging from dementia prevention to Romanian politicians' embarrassing quotes. Longer summary

This is the second part of Scott Alexander's monthly links roundup for July 2026, covering a wide range of topics including AI developments, effective altruism funding waves, healthcare research, and cultural curiosities. Major themes include Chinese AI models catching up to the US (though still 6-12 months behind), the coming "third wave" of American philanthropy from AI company equity donations potentially flooding effective altruism with $40 billion/year, AI systems now outperforming humans at persuasion in specific contexts, and various scientific findings from dementia prevention to infinite ethics. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious technical analysis, historical oddities, and humorous observations, with extensive linking to sources and ongoing debates in the rationalist and effective altruist communities. Shorter summary

Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the current state of prediction markets after their recent explosion in popularity, noting that while volume has grown from millions to billions per month, most of it comes from sports betting rather than the epistemic improvement he'd hoped for. He explores several problems: markets aren't asking the most important questions society needs answered; resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucking") create controversy; and there are concerns about insider trading and manipulation. He proposes solutions including a novel approach to conditional markets and suggests two paths forward: either creating user-generated, subjectively-resolved real-money markets (the "Siskind Cube"), or accepting that prediction markets' main value may be as training data for AI forecasters that could make the markets themselves obsolete by late 2026. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 41 links and news items, covering topics from science and politics to history and technology, with brief commentaries and insights. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 41 diverse links and news items covering a wide range of topics. The items include scientific studies, political developments, historical anecdotes, technological advancements, and cultural phenomena. Scott Alexander presents these with brief commentaries, often adding his own insights or expressing skepticism about certain claims. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott pointing out interesting connections or implications of the information presented. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses various responses to his post on mentally ill homeless people, emphasizing the need for specific, detailed plans. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about mentally ill homeless people, addressing various objections and proposed solutions while emphasizing the need for specific, detailed plans rather than vague calls for toughness. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses comments on his fetish and AI post, defending his comparison of gender debates to addiction and discussing various theories on fetish formation and their implications for AI. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his post about fetishes and AI, addressing criticisms of his introductory paragraph comparing gender debates to opioid addiction, discussing alternative theories of fetish formation, and highlighting interesting comments on personal fetish experiences and implications for AI development. He defends his stance on the addictive nature of gender debates, argues for the use of puberty blockers, and explores various theories on fetish development and their potential relevance to AI alignment and development. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the threat of ancient diseases from thawing permafrost, arguing that recent human plagues pose a greater risk than prehistoric ones. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the potential threat of ancient diseases reemerging from thawing permafrost due to climate change. He argues that diseases from millions of years ago are unlikely to pose a significant threat to humans, as they would not be adapted to human biology. However, he expresses more concern about recent human plagues like the 1918 Spanish flu or smallpox potentially coming back. Scott explains that while there's no evidence of live smallpox virus found on artifacts or corpses, the possibility of viruses surviving in permafrost can't be ruled out entirely. He concludes that the biggest risk might come from scientists investigating these potential threats rather than natural exposure. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 37 links and interesting facts, covering topics from AI research and educational methods to historical anecdotes and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 37 diverse links and interesting facts. Topics range from politics, technology, and science to history, culture, and economics. The post includes updates on AI research, discussions of educational methods, unusual historical anecdotes, and commentary on current events. Scott Alexander presents these with his characteristic mix of curiosity, humor, and analytical insight, often adding personal thoughts or highlighting particularly intriguing aspects of each item. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from scientific studies to historical anecdotes, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and brief summaries on diverse topics. It covers scientific studies, historical anecdotes, political developments, and cultural phenomena. The topics range from new malaria control methods and gender transition studies to the economics of dictatorships and the history of rat-baiting. Scott Alexander provides commentary on some of the links, often with a touch of humor or irony. The post also includes updates on ongoing debates in fields like psychology, nutrition, and climate change. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a book attributing rising service costs to the Baumol effect, finding it convincing but raising some concerns about conflicting data and affordability issues. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the book 'Why Are The Prices So D*mn High?' by economists Alex Tabarrok and Eric Helland, which attributes rising costs in services like healthcare and education to the Baumol effect. The authors argue that as productivity increases in some sectors, wages rise across all sectors, making labor-intensive services relatively more expensive. Scott finds their case convincing but raises some concerns, including data on stagnant real wages, conflicting information on professional salaries, and the apparent decrease in affordability of services like education, which the Baumol effect shouldn't cause. He seeks further clarification on these points to fully accept the Baumol effect as the primary explanation for cost disease. Shorter summary

Scott proposes that value differences arise from people crystallizing heuristics at different levels, rather than from fundamental, incomprehensible differences in values. Longer summary

Scott explores the idea that value differences stem from people operating at different levels of a conceptual ladder, from explicit models to emotional experiences to reified essences to endorsed values. He argues that this perspective can help people understand each other better, as differences often arise from where individuals choose to crystallize heuristics rather than from fundamental, incomprehensible value differences. The post discusses various examples of this process, from nutrition to punishment to environmental preservation, and examines factors that influence where people place themselves on this ladder, such as intelligence, education, and personal experience. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against Nathan Robinson's proposal for public cafeterias, instead favoring a system of food vouchers with taxes and subsidies to promote healthy eating. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Nathan Robinson's proposal for a public food option, arguing that the existing system of vouchers plus taxes and subsidies is superior. He points out that a public cafeteria system would likely become stigmatized and low-quality, while vouchers allow poor people to access the same high-quality food as everyone else. Alexander then critiques the current implementation of agricultural subsidies and dietary guidelines, showing how government mismanagement has promoted unhealthy food. He argues that both capitalism and government are 'misaligned systems' that can produce bad outcomes, and that the solution is to pit multiple systems against each other with checks and balances rather than relying solely on government control. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering a wide range of topics, from scientific studies and historical facts to current events and amusing anecdotes. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, collecting various interesting articles, studies, and facts that caught his attention. The topics range widely from scientific research (like PTSD in Roman soldiers and genetic studies) to historical curiosities (like Byzantine titles and the history of cell phones). He also comments on current events like Silicon Valley critiques and political developments. Some links are serious academic studies, while others are more lighthearted like the rules around shooting Bigfoot. Throughout the post, Scott adds brief commentary and context to help readers understand the significance of each link. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines his evolving view on scientific consensus, realizing it's more reliable and self-correcting than he previously thought. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on his changing perspective towards scientific consensus, sharing personal experiences where he initially believed he was defying consensus but later discovered that the scientific community was often ahead of or aligned with his views. He discusses examples from various fields including the replication crisis, nutrition science, social justice issues, and AI risk. Alexander concludes that scientific consensus, while not perfect, is remarkably effective and trustworthy, often self-correcting within a decade of new evidence emerging. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that true logical debate, rarely attempted, could be more effective in changing minds than commonly believed, and is necessary for long-term progress in distinguishing truth from falsehood. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques two articles arguing that facts and logic are ineffective in changing people's minds, especially regarding political issues. He contends that true debate, following specific conditions he outlines, is rarely attempted and could be more effective than assumed. He suggests that collaborative truth-seeking and adversarial collaborations could be powerful tools for the media. Alexander argues that logical debate is an asymmetric weapon favoring truth, unlike rhetoric or violence which can be used equally by all sides. He concludes that while improving debate quality is a slow process, it's necessary for long-term progress in distinguishing truth from falsehood. Shorter summary

Elizabeth Van Nostrand explains how the International Refugee Assistance Project's (IRAP) ground-level work with refugees enabled a rapid response to Trump's immigration ban, highlighting the importance of maintaining emergency response capacity. Longer summary

This guest post by Elizabeth VanNostrand discusses the importance of organizations like the International Refugee Assistance Project (IRAP) in responding to crises such as Trump's immigration ban. The author explains how IRAP's day-to-day work with individual refugee cases positioned them to respond quickly and effectively when the ban was implemented. The post highlights the value of maintaining capacity for emergency response, even when it may seem inefficient during non-crisis periods. It also emphasizes the importance of partnerships between organizations like IRAP and larger, more established groups like the ACLU. The author concludes by encouraging donations to IRAP or similar small charities doing ground-level work. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering various topics from Judaism and science to media bias and hate crime hoaxes, with Scott's commentary on each story. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, where he shares interesting articles and studies he's found with brief commentary on each. The links cover a wide range of topics including religious practices, scientific research, healthcare policy, media bias, and social issues. Among the notable items are studies on early school starting age and crime rates, fake hate crime reports after Trump's election, and research on gender differences in medical care. The tone is analytical and sometimes skeptical, with Scott often providing additional context or pointing out methodological issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that accusations of Trump being an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are exaggerated and harmful, and calls for more measured criticism of Trump's actual flaws. Longer summary

In this post, Scott Alexander argues that accusations of racism and white supremacy against Donald Trump and his supporters are exaggerated and harmful. He contends that while Trump has said and done problematic things, claims that he is an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are not supported by evidence. Alexander reviews various arguments about Trump's alleged racism and rebuts them, citing statistics and providing context. He argues that treating Trump as uniquely racist compared to past presidents is inaccurate and counterproductive. The post ends with a call to stop 'crying wolf' about racism, as it causes unnecessary fear and may desensitize people to real instances of racism in the future. Alexander makes several predictions about what will happen under a Trump presidency to back up his argument. Shorter summary

A links roundup examining various scientific studies, social developments, and historical findings, with a particular focus on recent research about confounding variables and replication issues in science. Longer summary

This is an extensive links post covering various scientific studies, news items, and interesting facts. Scott discusses several studies about confounding variables and replication in science, historical findings about ancient civilizations, new research on topics ranging from climate change to criminology, and various social and political developments. The post starts with methodological concerns in science, moves through various research findings and historical tidbits, and ends with news about ongoing projects and obituaries. The tone is analytical but casual, with Scott often adding his own commentary and pointing out interesting implications or contradictions. Shorter summary

Scott shares and comments on various news articles and studies, covering topics from police tactics and Trump's campaign to behavioral genetics and dietary research. Longer summary

A diverse collection of links covering various topics, with Scott Alexander's commentary on each. The post includes news about politics, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. Highlights include a discussion of police tactics against drug dealers, updates on Trump's campaign, studies about bombing in Vietnam, diet research, and behavioral genetics. The post maintains a light and sometimes humorous tone while discussing serious topics, with Scott adding his characteristic analytical perspective and occasional wit to each link. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering research studies, social issues, economic trends and cultural phenomena that challenged expectations. Longer summary

This is a links post compiling various interesting news and studies from different fields. It covers a range of topics from historical myths about Europe's Little Ice Age to current research on poverty, artificial sweeteners, and military suicide rates. Scott highlights several studies that challenged his expectations, including findings about soda taxes and weight loss mortality. The post also touches on social issues like accusations of sexism in libraries and reactions to businesses refusing service to gay weddings. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering history, science, politics and culture, with Scott's commentary on each topic. Longer summary

This is a link roundup post covering various topics. It starts with interesting historical anecdotes like Kipling designing an engineering ritual and the passage of the Habeas Corpus Act. It covers recent news and developments in politics, technology, and science, including Elon Musk's SpaceX ships, cancer therapies, and climate change agreements. The post also discusses several academic papers and studies, addressing topics like citation practices, telomere research, and financial returns to education. Throughout, Scott maintains a skeptical eye toward overblown claims and provides commentary on various social and political developments. Shorter summary

Scott shares a collection of interesting links covering various topics from American chestnut restoration to scientific findings, political events, and cultural observations. Longer summary

This is a Links post where Scott Alexander shares and briefly comments on various interesting news and findings. The post covers diverse topics including the genetic engineering of American chestnut trees, revelations about Dr. Strangelove's accuracy, malaria eradication efforts, scientific studies on topics like exercise and weight loss, and cultural observations. Scott provides his characteristic analytical commentary on each item, often highlighting surprising connections or ironies. The post maintains a mix of scientific, political, and cultural topics, with Scott's commentary ranging from serious analysis to humorous observations. Shorter summary

Scott shares a diverse collection of links and brief commentaries on scientific studies, political news, cultural phenomena, and personal observations across various fields. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links and brief commentaries on various topics, including scientific studies, political news, and cultural phenomena. Scott covers a wide range of subjects, from the effects of ultraviolet radiation on weight gain to the decline of cults, global inequality trends, genetic links to violent crime, and the concept of competitive governance. He also discusses recent political events, media controversies, and developments in artificial intelligence research. The post includes personal observations, book recommendations, and reflections on social dynamics within online communities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how issues become politicized along tribal lines, preventing rational discussion and leading to counterproductive behaviors. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses how various issues become politicized and tied to tribal narratives, using examples like the Ebola quarantine debate, the Rotherham scandal, and climate change. He argues that when issues become referendums on tribal identity, it prevents rational discussion and leads to counterproductive behaviors. He suggests that framing issues in ways that respect out-group narratives could help, but notes this rarely happens due to media incentives. Shorter summary