Scott reflects on how COVID-19's massive death toll of 1.2 million Americans has been overshadowed in public discourse by more controversial but less significant aspects of the pandemic. Longer summary

Five years after COVID-19, Scott Alexander reflects on how public discourse focuses on controversial aspects of the pandemic (lockdowns, masks, vaccines) while largely ignoring its staggering death toll of 1.2 million Americans. He points out this is the highest-fatality event in American history, surpassing the Civil War by 50%. Scott suggests this blind spot comes from two factors: dead people can't advocate for themselves, and controversy sells better than tragedy. He draws parallels with charity discourse, where controversial stories overshadow the actual lives saved. Shorter summary

Scott responds to comments and criticisms of his post about Tegmark's Mathematical Universe Hypothesis and its implications for arguments about God's existence, addressing technical points about Boltzmann brains, simplicity measures, and philosophical objections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and responds to comments on his previous post about Tegmark's Mathematical Universe Hypothesis. He addresses technical criticisms about Boltzmann brains and probability measures, explains why the theory requires simplicity weighting, and defends his claim that it defeats many arguments for God's existence. He engages with philosophical objections about falsifiability and originality, arguing that falsifiability is not the only way to evaluate theories and dismissing claims that the ideas are just reinventing ancient philosophy. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander and 1DaySooner outline potential positive health policy initiatives that could emerge under three key Trump administration health appointees: Jim O'Neill, Marty Makary, and Jay Bhattacharya. Longer summary

This post discusses potential health policy proposals under a hypothetical second Trump administration, focusing on three key appointees and their possible initiatives. The piece examines Jim O'Neill as Deputy Secretary of HHS, highlighting his potential work on organ donation compensation and longevity research; Marty Makary as FDA Commissioner, discussing FDA transparency and regulatory improvements; and Jay Bhattacharya as NIH Director, exploring research funding reforms and challenge trials. Written in collaboration with 1DaySooner, the post specifically focuses on optimistic scenarios that could emerge from these appointments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to Robin Hanson's reply on medical effectiveness, clarifying interpretations and reiterating arguments about the limitations of insurance experiments in evaluating medical care. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Robin Hanson's reply to his original post on medical effectiveness. Scott clarifies his interpretation of Hanson's views, discusses potential misunderstandings, and reiterates his arguments about the limitations of insurance experiments in evaluating medical effectiveness. He also addresses specific points Hanson made about cancer treatment, health insurance studies, and p-hacking in medical research. Scott concludes by restating his position that while some medicine is ineffective, it's crucial to distinguish between effective and ineffective treatments rather than dismissing medicine broadly. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and brief discussions on topics including AI developments, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. Longer summary

This post is a collection of diverse links and brief discussions on various topics. Scott Alexander covers AI developments, historical events, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. He touches on subjects like AI safety concerns, social media effects on mental health, mask efficacy debates, and potential shifts in 'woke' culture. The post also includes interesting anecdotes, thought experiments, and statistical analyses on topics ranging from medieval Mali to modern dating dynamics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents evidence against the existence of advanced Ice Age civilizations, particularly those rivaling ancient Egypt or 1700s Great Britain. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the existence of advanced Ice Age civilizations, categorizing potential claims into three levels of advancement: Stonehenge-like, Egyptian-like, and 1700s Great Britain-like. He presents three main arguments: the lack of archaeological sites that would survive sea level rise, the absence of evidence for early crop and livestock domestication, and the lack of elevated lead levels in ice cores and human bones from that period. While he doesn't completely rule out Stonehenge-level civilizations, he finds strong evidence against more advanced societies. The post concludes with probability estimates for future discoveries of pre-11,000 BC structures at different levels of sophistication. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the concept of 'light water' and its potential health benefits, critically analyzing various arguments while expressing fascination with this unexpected area of scientific inquiry. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'light water' (water depleted of deuterium) as a potential health treatment. He begins with a hypothetical scenario about poisoning Castro with heavy water, then explains the science behind isotopes of water. The post discusses various arguments for light water's health benefits, including evolutionary, molecular biology, and oncological perspectives. Scott critically examines these claims, pointing out flaws in some arguments while acknowledging that some cancer studies seem intriguing. He concludes by expressing fascination with the unexpected dimensions along which scientific inquiry can progress, even if the medical benefits of light water remain unproven. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander's links post covers historical oddities, scientific studies, social issues, and tech developments, ranging from pet monkeys to AI progress. Longer summary

This links post covers a wide range of topics, including historical curiosities, scientific studies, social issues, and technology developments. Some notable items include: a discussion of ways things have improved since the 1980s, an analysis of Alcoholics Anonymous effectiveness, insights into national IQ correlations with development, and updates on COVID-19 responses. The post also touches on topics like depression treatment, artificial intelligence progress, and healthcare system comparisons. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response. Longer summary

This post covers various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdown effectiveness, heterogeneity in infection rates across countries, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations. Scott discusses cell phone data showing limited impact of official lockdowns, explores reasons for varying infection/mortality rates between countries, and highlights the role of speaking/singing in virus transmission. He also examines coronavirus prediction markets, questions the long-term sustainability of lockdowns, and ponders how to quantify the severity of COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes. The post concludes with numerous short updates and links on coronavirus-related topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the media's failure in coronavirus coverage was not about prediction, but about poor probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. Longer summary

This post discusses the media's failure in covering the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that the issue was not primarily one of prediction but of probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. Scott Alexander argues that while predicting the exact course of the pandemic was difficult, the media and experts failed to properly convey and act on the potential risks even when the probability seemed low. He contrasts this with examples of good reasoning from individuals who took the threat seriously early on, not because they were certain it would be catastrophic, but because they understood the importance of preparing for low-probability, high-impact events. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews John Gottman's marriage counseling methods, finding them intuitively appealing but scientifically questionable. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews John Gottman's book 'The Seven Principles For Making Marriage Work', summarizing Gottman's methods and then critically examining the scientific evidence behind them. The review begins with an overview of Gottman's reputation and claims, then details his approach to marital counseling, which focuses on liking your spouse, communication skills, and dealing with conflicts. Scott then investigates the statistical validity of Gottman's methods, finding significant issues with his claims of predictive accuracy and effectiveness. The review concludes with Scott's personal reflections on the challenges of relationship counseling and the nature of marital problems. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links to interesting articles, studies, and news items on topics ranging from history and science to politics and culture. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including Russian city flags, archaeological hoaxes, growth mindset research, atomic gardening, AI takeoff scenarios, UFO patents, antibiotic resistance, freelance journalism laws, religious trends in the Middle East, presidential candidate support by occupation, civility in politics, pollution comparisons, open borders debates, gender reveal party accidents, historical theories about Western psychology, entrepreneurship age trends, socialist proposals, WWI myths, biological feedback mechanisms, and various other curiosities and current events. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander humorously describes his observations at the American Psychiatric Association meeting, highlighting pharmaceutical influence, social justice focus, and historical context of psychiatry. Longer summary

Scott Alexander attends the American Psychiatric Association meeting and shares his observations in a humorous photo-essay. He notes the overwhelming presence of pharmaceutical advertising, the conference's focus on social justice issues, the presence of Scientology protesters and CIA recruiters, and the abundance of new but seemingly unnecessary psychiatric drugs. He reflects on the historical context of psychiatry, including its past political biases and progress over time, while critiquing the current state of the field and its relationship with drug companies and social trends. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of news items and interesting links covering science, technology, politics, and culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from various fields. It covers topics such as animal behavior, space exploration, technology, politics, environmental issues, and scientific research. The post includes brief summaries or commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or personal reflection. Some notable items include the story of the Soviet space shuttle Buran, a new California law on pet shops, developments in AI and cryptocurrency, and concerns about insect population decline. The post also touches on social issues like racial approval ratings for Trump and the controversial Gillette commercial. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the fate of 1990s environmental concerns, finding a mix of solved problems, exaggerated issues, and ongoing challenges that have faded from public attention. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the environmental concerns of the 1990s, examining what happened to issues like air and water pollution, acid rain, rainforest deforestation, endangered species, landfill space, peak resource, and whale conservation. He finds that some problems were solved, some were exaggerated, and others continue but receive less attention. The post explores why certain environmental issues fade from public consciousness, considering factors like problem-solving, alarmism, shifting focus to climate change, and changes in societal attitudes. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering history, science, politics, culture, and curiosities, presented with humor and interesting facts. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and interesting facts across multiple domains. It covers historical peace treaties, scientific research on diminishing returns in science, geopolitical tensions in Eurovision, education rankings, religious schisms, marijuana regulations, scientific publishing news, experimental archaeology, neuroscience discoveries, geographical facts, international disputes, philosophy humor, rationality-related subreddits, healthcare transparency efforts, academic scandals, mathematical breakthroughs, political trends, cultural oddities, and linguistic curiosities. The post maintains a light, often humorous tone while presenting a wide array of information. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses new research suggesting ketamine's antidepressant effects may be linked to the opioid system, exploring the implications and potential future directions for depression treatment. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an update on ketamine research, discussing a new study that suggests ketamine's antidepressant effects may be related to the opioid system rather than NMDA receptors as previously thought. He compares this to a study on buprenorphine's effects on suicidal ideation and explores the implications of these findings. The post touches on the medical establishment's response, potential future directions for research and treatment, and the historical context of opiate use in medicine. Scott also raises questions about the relationship between opiates and depression, and the potential risks and benefits of using opioid-related treatments for depression. Shorter summary

Scott explores how acetylcholine-related cognitive enhancers might work by increasing sensory precision and learning rate, while speculating on potential tradeoffs and acknowledging the highly speculative nature of these ideas. Longer summary

This post explores the mechanisms and potential tradeoffs of cognitive enhancers, focusing on acetylcholine-related substances like piracetam and nicotine. Scott discusses the role of acetylcholine in the brain's predictive coding model, where it's thought to increase sensory precision and learning rate. He speculates on how this might explain the cognitive-enhancing effects of these drugs, but also considers potential downsides like disrupted intuitive understanding or increased risk of psychotic-like thinking. The post ends by acknowledging the highly speculative nature of these ideas and noting some contradictory evidence. Shorter summary

The post explores how correlated variables can diverge at extreme values, applying this concept to happiness measures and moral systems. Longer summary

This post explores the concept of 'tails coming apart' and its application to various domains, particularly morality. The author begins by discussing how strongly correlated variables can diverge at extreme values, using examples like grip strength vs. arm strength. He then applies this concept to happiness, showing how different measures of happiness (e.g., life satisfaction, positive emotions) can lead to different countries being ranked as 'happiest'. The post extends this idea to morality, arguing that while different moral systems may agree in everyday situations, they diverge dramatically when taken to extremes. The author suggests that this divergence poses challenges for developing moral systems that can handle transhuman scenarios. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines conflicting narratives about cancer treatment progress, analyzing data to show that while some improvements are due to social factors, there's evidence of genuine advancements in cancer treatment and outcomes. Longer summary

This post examines the progress made in the 'War on Cancer' by analyzing cancer incidence rates, mortality rates, and five-year survival rates. Scott Alexander explores two competing narratives: one suggesting significant progress and another claiming limited success. He delves into the data, considering factors like age adjustment, smoking trends, and early detection biases. The analysis reveals that while some improvements are due to social factors like reduced smoking, there's evidence of genuine progress in cancer treatment. Stage-specific survival rates have improved, and studies adjusting for various confounders still show advancements. The post concludes that while progress may not meet the grand expectations set in the past, there has been a gradual but real improvement in cancer treatment and outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines melatonin's effects, proper dosage, and uses for sleep disorders and circadian rhythm issues, emphasizing its dual role as a hypnotic and chronobiotic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of melatonin, its effects, and proper usage. He explains that melatonin functions as both a hypnotic (inducing sleep) and a chronobiotic (shifting circadian rhythms). The post covers optimal dosing (0.3 mg, much lower than commonly available doses), use in treating circadian rhythm disorders, jet lag, and potential connections to other psychiatric conditions like seasonal affective disorder and depression. Scott also discusses personal experiences with melatonin, including its tendency to cause early waking and vivid dreams in some people. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines whether psychiatrists should test for lead more often, concluding that while it could be relevant in some cases, there's not enough evidence to justify universal testing. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the question of whether psychiatrists should test for lead more often in patients with mental health issues. He presents a case where lead poisoning was found to be a factor in a patient's psychiatric symptoms, and explores the broader implications of this. Scott then examines the complexities of deciding which potential factors to test for in psychiatric practice, given the numerous possible causes of depression and other mental health issues. He argues that while lead could be a factor in some cases, there's insufficient evidence to justify universal testing. He also discusses the challenges of interpreting and acting on test results, especially when they fall within normal ranges. Scott concludes by reflecting on different approaches to medical practice and the difficulties of balancing evidence-based guidelines with emerging theories and individual clinical judgment. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines self-serving bias and status quo defense using Oregon's gas station law change, arguing for better rational debate skills to navigate societal changes. Longer summary

This post discusses the self-serving bias through the lens of Oregon's recent law allowing self-service gas stations in some areas, which sparked outrage among some Oregonians. Scott Alexander uses this example to explore how people tend to defend the status quo and view changes as potentially catastrophic, even when those changes are normal elsewhere. He extends this idea to various fields, including medicine, child-rearing practices, and social norms. The post argues that we often rely on intuitions about absurdity to make judgments, but these intuitions can vary greatly between cultures and even states. Scott suggests that this reliance on intuition is concerning because it means that if something loses its 'protective coating of absurdity,' we must resort to rational debate to defend it - a process our society isn't particularly good at. He concludes by encouraging readers to apply the same level of scrutiny to their own beliefs that they would expect from Oregonians questioning their gas station laws. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links covering topics from architecture to AI, with brief summaries and occasional humorous commentary. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, Chinese immigrant history, psychotherapy, AI advancements, genetics, politics, science, and economics. The post includes brief summaries or comments on each link, often with a touch of humor or irony. Some notable items include discussions on the repressive climate in the Bay Area, new studies on autism and transgender links, and economists' opinions on Net Neutrality repeal. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander challenges the popular interpretation of the Rat Park study, arguing that addiction is not solely caused by poor environments and emphasizing genetic factors in addiction susceptibility. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the 'Rat Park' study and its popularized interpretation that drug addiction is primarily caused by poor social environments. He presents historical examples of addiction in seemingly happy or fortunate individuals, such as Ogedei Khan and Native Americans, to challenge this view. The post then discusses the genetic factors in addiction, citing twin studies and known genetic markers. Scott acknowledges that unhappiness likely contributes to drug use but argues that the relationship between environment and addiction is more complex than the Rat Park model suggests. He proposes a toy model where other sources of reward can help resist drug addiction, but maintains that biological interventions like deregulating suboxone and researching psychedelic therapy are more immediately effective for helping addicts. Shorter summary