Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange. Longer summary

Scott analyzes several recent prediction market stories. First, he examines how Anthropic's stock price barely changed after the Pentagon declared it a 'supply chain risk', because markets predict the company will win on appeal and the designation only affects a small portion of their business while generating positive publicity. He then discusses the 2026 midterms, where Democrats are favored to win but various Republican voting law changes could create chaos, though markets suggest turnout won't be significantly affected. The post includes a statistical analysis of groundhog weather predictions, showing Staten Island Chuck's high accuracy is likely due to consistently predicting spring. He covers prediction markets about the Iran conflict, including regime change odds and potential casualties. Finally, he announces MNX, a new cryptocurrency-based futures exchange focused on AI-related hedging markets, and shares miscellaneous prediction market news including Substack's partnership with Polymarket. Shorter summary

Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025. Longer summary

This is Scott Alexander's monthly collection of links and commentary covering diverse topics. Major themes include AI policy battles (chip sales to China, regulation debates, political campaigns), startup news (Substrate fraud allegations, Tornyol mosquito drones), and scientific updates (COVID origins, Hitler's DNA, lactose intolerance). The post also covers cultural topics like the first millennial saint, Dimes Square commentary, and political polling about ideal Democratic candidates. Scott provides his characteristic mix of straightforward reporting, skeptical analysis, and occasional humor throughout the 53 linked items. Shorter summary

Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI forecasting and prediction markets. It starts by examining FiveThirtyNine, a new AI forecaster claiming to be superintelligent, but finds its performance questionable. The post then briefly mentions r/MarkMyWords, a subreddit for bold predictions. It goes on to discuss Polymarket's recent success, particularly in betting on the 2024 US presidential election. The post concludes with a roundup of interesting prediction markets and forecasting-related news, including political betting controversies in the UK and updates on the Kalshi vs. CFTC legal battle. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes new DEA regulations that restrict telemedicine prescriptions for controlled substances, arguing they will harm patients and legitimate practices while failing to prevent abuse. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes new DEA regulations that make it harder for telemedicine doctors to prescribe controlled substances. As a telepsychiatrist, he explains how these rules will negatively impact his practice and patients, especially those who rely on controlled substances for conditions like ADHD or anxiety. He argues that the new regulations, while intended to prevent overprescribing, will mainly create inconvenience for legitimate practitioners and patients while doing little to stop actual abusers. Scott outlines the loopholes in the law and how they highlight its absurdity, predicting that these rules will make telemedicine less accessible and effective in the long run. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of hyperstitious slurs, showing how words and actions become offensive through belief, and discusses when to adopt new language norms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of hyperstitious slurs, which are words or phrases that become offensive primarily because people believe they are offensive. He explains how this process works, using examples like the word 'Jap' and 'Negro'. The post then extends this concept to actions, images, and even facts, showing how they can become signals of offensive intent through similar processes. Scott criticizes the unnecessary creation of new slurs, like banning 'field work' in academia, and discusses his personal approach to adopting new language norms. He suggests joining these cascades about 70% of the way through as a compromise between principle and self-preservation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that concerns about climate change should not deter people from having children, presenting counterarguments to common climate-related reasons for avoiding parenthood. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the idea that people should avoid having children due to climate change concerns. He presents three main counterarguments: 1) While climate change will be bad, it's unlikely to be catastrophic for most people in developed countries. 2) Choosing not to have children might actually harm climate action by reducing the number of future climate-conscious voters. 3) The carbon footprint of having a child is often overstated, and can potentially be offset through donations or other means. He concludes that climate concerns shouldn't prevent people who want children from having them. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response. Longer summary

This post covers various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdown effectiveness, heterogeneity in infection rates across countries, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations. Scott discusses cell phone data showing limited impact of official lockdowns, explores reasons for varying infection/mortality rates between countries, and highlights the role of speaking/singing in virus transmission. He also examines coronavirus prediction markets, questions the long-term sustainability of lockdowns, and ponders how to quantify the severity of COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes. The post concludes with numerous short updates and links on coronavirus-related topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It covers topics such as estimating the true number of cases, the lack of a clear endgame strategy, the effectiveness of 'flattening the curve', differentiating COVID-19 from flu symptoms, the use of anti-inflammatory drugs, ventilator shortages, disease seasonality, the need for better data, and the Bay Area's response to the crisis. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on billionaire philanthropy, addressing criticisms while ultimately defending its net positive impact and arguing to protect the most effective charitable efforts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about billionaire philanthropy. He addresses criticisms and counterarguments, providing further analysis on topics like the scale of billionaire donations compared to political spending, the democratic nature of philanthropy, tax deductibility, and potential downsides. While acknowledging some valid concerns, Scott ultimately defends the net positive impact of billionaire philanthropy, especially highlighting examples like the Gates Foundation's global health work. He argues that even if some billionaire philanthropy is problematic, the most effective charitable efforts are so valuable that they should be protected and encouraged. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of news items and interesting links covering science, technology, politics, and culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from various fields. It covers topics such as animal behavior, space exploration, technology, politics, environmental issues, and scientific research. The post includes brief summaries or commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or personal reflection. Some notable items include the story of the Soviet space shuttle Buran, a new California law on pet shops, developments in AI and cryptocurrency, and concerns about insect population decline. The post also touches on social issues like racial approval ratings for Trump and the controversial Gillette commercial. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and brief commentaries on topics ranging from ancient calendars to fusion research, social trends, and economic analyses. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links and brief summaries on various topics, including calendar systems, scientific studies, social trends, economics, politics, and technology. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects, from an ancient Persian calendar to fusion power research, social psychology effects, philosophical hiring biases, and economic analyses. The post includes commentary on recent news, scientific findings, and cultural phenomena, often with a touch of humor or skepticism. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a wide-ranging collection of links covering science, technology, politics, economics, and culture, with brief commentary on each item. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares a collection of interesting links and news items on various topics. He discusses punding (a side effect of dopamine drugs), net neutrality in Montana, Tibetan monks' fear of death, Trump's solar panel tariffs, space exploration news, a potential tinnitus treatment, the US metric system history, NSA's core values change, a Burning Man activist's story, blockchain projects, Aristotle's puns, UK politician Jacob Rees-Mogg, arguments against open borders, new education programs, SAT score correlations, solar system geography, Amazon's entry into healthcare, pain tolerance and friendships, legal terminology origins, campus free speech issues, Twitter bots, nutrition studies, IQ test incentives, dating apps for verified Twitter users, Hitler's drug use, mindfulness research, disability insurance effects, asteroid naming conventions, and various other topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that accusations of Trump being an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are exaggerated and harmful, and calls for more measured criticism of Trump's actual flaws. Longer summary

In this post, Scott Alexander argues that accusations of racism and white supremacy against Donald Trump and his supporters are exaggerated and harmful. He contends that while Trump has said and done problematic things, claims that he is an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are not supported by evidence. Alexander reviews various arguments about Trump's alleged racism and rebuts them, citing statistics and providing context. He argues that treating Trump as uniquely racist compared to past presidents is inaccurate and counterproductive. The post ends with a call to stop 'crying wolf' about racism, as it causes unnecessary fear and may desensitize people to real instances of racism in the future. Alexander makes several predictions about what will happen under a Trump presidency to back up his argument. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that, contrary to his reputation as an isolationist, Trump's statements suggest he may be more likely to engage in military interventions than Clinton, who represents a more predictable foreign policy approach. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines claims that Trump is an isolationist and safer choice than Clinton regarding foreign policy. He argues that Trump's statements and past positions suggest he may be more likely to engage in military interventions. Alexander analyzes Trump's statements on ISIS, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, finding many hawkish positions. He discusses Trump's criticism of NATO and international trade agreements, suggesting this could destabilize the post-WWII peace. Alexander then examines Clinton's positions, arguing they are more moderate and predictable. He concludes that while Clinton's foreign policy isn't perfect, she represents a lower-variance, more stable choice compared to the unpredictability of Trump's potential actions. Shorter summary

A links roundup post covering recent developments in science, medicine, psychology and politics, with particular focus on research replication issues and the 2016 election season. Longer summary

This is a links roundup post covering various recent research findings, news, and developments. It covers topics from toxoplasma research, drug trials, and scientific replication crises to politics and social issues. The post discusses several important developments in psychology including failed replications of established theories like ego depletion, updates on clinical trials and drug research, and various political developments around the 2016 election season. It maintains a light tone while discussing serious academic and scientific topics, including several meta-analyses and study critiques. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from politics and economics to scientific studies, offering brief commentaries and critiques. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and brief commentaries on various topics. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects including politics, science, social issues, and economics. He discusses studies on poverty traps, the relationship between poverty and crime, and the effects of marijuana legalization. The post also includes quirky facts, book reviews, and observations on cultural phenomena. Scott's tone is analytical and often skeptical, particularly when discussing scientific studies and their interpretations. Shorter summary