Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange.

Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025.

Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting.

Scott Alexander criticizes new DEA regulations that restrict telemedicine prescriptions for controlled substances, arguing they will harm patients and legitimate practices while failing to prevent abuse.

Scott Alexander explores the concept of hyperstitious slurs, showing how words and actions become offensive through belief, and discusses when to adopt new language norms.

Scott Alexander argues that concerns about climate change should not deter people from having children, presenting counterarguments to common climate-related reasons for avoiding parenthood.

Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response.

Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses.

Scott Alexander responds to comments on billionaire philanthropy, addressing criticisms while ultimately defending its net positive impact and arguing to protect the most effective charitable efforts.

A diverse collection of news items and interesting links covering science, technology, politics, and culture, with brief commentary on each.

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and brief commentaries on topics ranging from ancient calendars to fusion research, social trends, and economic analyses.

Scott Alexander presents a wide-ranging collection of links covering science, technology, politics, economics, and culture, with brief commentary on each item.

Scott Alexander argues that accusations of Trump being an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are exaggerated and harmful, and calls for more measured criticism of Trump's actual flaws.

Scott Alexander argues that, contrary to his reputation as an isolationist, Trump's statements suggest he may be more likely to engage in military interventions than Clinton, who represents a more predictable foreign policy approach.

A links roundup post covering recent developments in science, medicine, psychology and politics, with particular focus on research replication issues and the 2016 election season.

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from politics and economics to scientific studies, offering brief commentaries and critiques.