Scott argues AI safety regulation adds only 1-2% to training costs while America has a 10x compute advantage over China, making safety concerns irrelevant to the race; meanwhile, chip exports to China pose a far greater threat that the same critics ignore. Longer summary

Scott argues that AI safety regulation will not significantly harm America's position in the AI race with China. He breaks down the race into three levels (compute, models, and applications), showing America has a massive 10x compute advantage while China's strategy focuses on applications. He demonstrates that proposed AI safety regulations would add only 1-2% to training costs - trivial compared to America's compute lead. The real threats to US advantage are chip export policies and smuggling, where NVIDIA lobbies to sell advanced chips to China, potentially reducing the US advantage from 30x to 1.7x. Scott notes the irony that many people opposing safety regulation on China grounds simultaneously support chip exports, and argues safety regulation might actually help the US by improving security, enabling compute governance, and preventing future overreactions to AI incidents. Shorter summary

Scott shares his monthly collection of 56 interesting links and developments from July 2025, covering AI, politics, science, and culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a collection of 56 interesting links and news items from July 2025, covering topics from AI development to politics to scientific research. The post includes updates on OpenAI's status, developments in AI regulation, new medical treatments, cultural trends, and various scientific findings. Scott maintains his usual style of presenting these with brief commentary and occasional humor, while being careful to note that he hasn't independently verified all links. Some notable items include Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill", new AI safety developments, trends in social media usage, and various medical breakthroughs. Shorter summary

Scott shares various interesting links and news items from January 2025, covering topics from AI development and politics to historical curiosities and economic trends. Longer summary

This links post covers a wide array of topics from January 2025, with Scott providing commentary and analysis on each. The links include discussions about running for Congress, AI development and safety, dating advice, psychiatric diagnoses, and various economic and technological developments. Scott often adds his own insights and sometimes skepticism to the claims being discussed. The post also includes several historical curiosities and social observations, maintaining a mix of serious analysis and lighter interesting facts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how compounding pharmacies are producing cheaper versions of GLP-1 agonist drugs, exploring the economics, safety, and future implications of this practice. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the 'compounding loophole' that allows compounding pharmacies to produce cheaper versions of GLP-1 agonist drugs like semaglutide (Ozempic). He explains how these pharmacies operate, the cost differences, safety concerns, and potential future implications. The post covers the legal basis for this practice during drug shortages, the impact on drug manufacturers like Novo Nordisk, and speculates on what might happen when the shortage ends. Scott also touches on the broader implications for drug pricing and availability. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores recent advancements in AI-powered prediction markets, including bot-based systems, AI forecasters, and their potential impact on future predictions and decision-making. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in prediction markets and AI forecasting. It covers Manifold's bot-based prediction markets, FutureSearch's AI forecasting system, Vitalik Buterin's thoughts on AI and crypto in prediction markets, a Manifold promotional event called 'Bet On Love', and various current market predictions on topics like AI capabilities and political events. The post also includes short links to related articles and forecasting resources. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a debate on AI development pauses, discussing various strategies and their potential impacts on AI safety and progress. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes a debate on pausing AI development, outlining five main strategies discussed: Simple Pause, Surgical Pause, Regulatory Pause, Total Stop, and No Pause. He explains the arguments for and against each approach, including considerations like compute overhang, international competition, and the potential for regulatory overreach. The post also covers additional perspectives from debate participants and Scott's own thoughts on the feasibility and implications of various pause strategies. Shorter summary

The review examines 'Lying for Money' by Dan Davies, which explores various types of financial fraud and their economic implications, discussing main themes and types of white-collar crime. Longer summary

This book review explores 'Lying for Money' by Dan Davies, which examines various types of financial fraud and their implications for the broader economy. The review covers the book's main themes, including the idea that fraud is an equilibrium phenomenon, the importance of trust networks in facilitating fraud, and how complex systems are more vulnerable to exploitation. It discusses the four types of white-collar crime outlined in the book: long firm fraud, counterfeiting, control fraud, and market crimes. The review also highlights the book's insights on how frauds tend to grow over time and the challenges in preventing and prosecuting financial crimes. The reviewer adds their own analysis, particularly on the recent FTX cryptocurrency scandal, which is not covered in the book but fits well with its themes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023, covering topics from unusual stories and scientific research to AI developments and global trends. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023. The post covers a wide range of topics, including unusual stories, scientific research, political developments, AI progress and concerns, cultural phenomena, and more. Notable items include a real-life 'Cocaine Bear' story, an adversarial collaboration on income and happiness, concerns about AI development, and updates on global trends like birth rates in Africa. The post also includes several short fiction recommendations and humorous AI-related anecdotes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses reader comments on his cyclic theory of subcultures, addressing critiques and expanding on the model's applications and limitations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various comments on his post about a cyclic theory of subcultures. He addresses critiques and expansions of his model, including the role of loyalists, the importance of unassailable central figures, and how movements transition between phases. Scott also reflects on the current state of rationalism and effective altruism, provides his timeline for the rationalist movement, and explores the concept of status in subcultures. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Outlier' by Kai Bird, examining Jimmy Carter's life and presidency, highlighting his unconventional approach and mixed legacy. Longer summary

This book review explores 'The Outlier: The Unfinished Presidency of Jimmy Carter' by Kai Bird, offering a detailed look at Carter's life and presidency. The review covers Carter's early life, his rise to power, his time as president, and the challenges he faced. It highlights Carter's unconventional approach to politics, his successes in foreign policy (like the Camp David Accords), and his struggles with domestic issues and the economy. The review also discusses Carter's defeat by Ronald Reagan and reflects on the lessons that can be drawn from Carter's presidency. The reviewer finds the book informative but ultimately unsatisfying in its attempt to fully explain Carter as a person. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines recent developments in model cities, including political threats to ZEDEs in Honduras, El Salvador's Bitcoin city plan, and the mysterious Praxis project. Longer summary

This blog post discusses recent developments in model cities and charter cities. It covers the political situation in Honduras affecting ZEDEs, El Salvador's plan for a Bitcoin-themed city, the mysterious Praxis project, and other model city news. The post critically examines each project, analyzing their feasibility, potential impact, and the motivations behind them. Scott Alexander provides context, expresses skepticism where appropriate, and offers insights into the challenges and opportunities these projects face. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the evolution of online culture wars from atheism to feminism to race, analyzing the dynamics of these shifts and speculating on future trends. Longer summary

Scott Alexander traces the evolution of online culture wars from New Atheism through feminism to the current focus on race, examining how each movement rose and fell in popularity. He analyzes the dynamics of these shifts using concepts like fashion cycles and signaling theory, and speculates on the future trajectory of culture war topics. The post explores how terms like 'SJW' and 'woke' impacted discourse, the rise and potential decline of New Socialism, and draws parallels to longer-term cycles of mainstream institutional values. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and grades his predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, covering topics from Trump's base diversity to the likelihood of a coup. He analyzes his successes and failures, discussing his performance on prediction markets and his overall accuracy compared to average pundits. Scott concludes that he did about average in his predictions, with some notable successes in race-related predictions and on prediction markets, but also made mistakes in overestimating Trump's competence and underestimating his continued support from Republicans. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the Amish health care system, which costs much less than the American system while maintaining good health outcomes, and considers its implications for broader healthcare policy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the Amish health care system, comparing it to the modern American system. He notes that the Amish spend much less on healthcare while maintaining good health outcomes, though they have slightly lower life expectancy. The Amish system relies on church aid and a simple insurance-like institution called Amish Hospital Aid. Key factors in their lower costs include collective bargaining, avoiding unnecessary care, not suing doctors, and price-sensitive consumption. Scott considers the applicability of this system to wider society and reflects on how healthcare costs have changed over time, suggesting a possible self-reinforcing cycle between rising costs and the spread of health insurance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews John Gottman's marriage counseling methods, finding them intuitively appealing but scientifically questionable. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews John Gottman's book 'The Seven Principles For Making Marriage Work', summarizing Gottman's methods and then critically examining the scientific evidence behind them. The review begins with an overview of Gottman's reputation and claims, then details his approach to marital counseling, which focuses on liking your spouse, communication skills, and dealing with conflicts. Scott then investigates the statistical validity of Gottman's methods, finding significant issues with his claims of predictive accuracy and effectiveness. The review concludes with Scott's personal reflections on the challenges of relationship counseling and the nature of marital problems. Shorter summary

Scott examines studies linking sleeping pills to increased mortality, highlighting a new study that found no link after adjusting for 300 confounders, potentially challenging the validity of less thorough studies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a controversial topic in medical research: the link between sleeping pills and increased mortality. He reviews several studies that found a strong association between sleeping pill use and higher death rates from various causes, even after controlling for confounders. However, he then introduces a new study by Patorno et al. that found no such link for benzodiazepines. The key difference is that this study adjusted for an unprecedented 300 confounders using a new statistical algorithm. Scott suggests that if this study is correct, it could mean that many other medical studies that only control for a handful of confounders might be inadequate. He draws parallels to other fields where dramatically increasing scale or intensity has led to new insights. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines melatonin's effects, proper dosage, and uses for sleep disorders and circadian rhythm issues, emphasizing its dual role as a hypnotic and chronobiotic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of melatonin, its effects, and proper usage. He explains that melatonin functions as both a hypnotic (inducing sleep) and a chronobiotic (shifting circadian rhythms). The post covers optimal dosing (0.3 mg, much lower than commonly available doses), use in treating circadian rhythm disorders, jet lag, and potential connections to other psychiatric conditions like seasonal affective disorder and depression. Scott also discusses personal experiences with melatonin, including its tendency to cause early waking and vivid dreams in some people. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links on topics ranging from science and politics to economics and culture, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, economic trends, technological advancements, and cultural phenomena. Scott Alexander provides brief commentary on many of the links, often adding context or his own thoughts. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with a focus on sharing intriguing information across diverse fields. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews and responds to comments on his survey about sexual harassment rates in different fields, addressing methodological issues and presenting additional demographic data. Longer summary

This post discusses comments and analyses related to the SSC Survey Results on Sexual Harassment Levels By Field. It covers various points raised by commenters, including attempts to reproduce the results, alternative interpretations of the data, methodological critiques, and additional factors that might influence harassment rates. The post also presents additional data on harassment rates by various demographic factors, while cautioning against drawing strong conclusions without proper statistical analysis. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes survey data showing lower sexual harassment rates in STEM fields compared to other industries, contradicting media narratives, while urging caution and calling for more research. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes data from his blog's survey on sexual harassment rates across different fields. The survey found that STEM and traditionally male-dominated fields had lower rates of reported sexual harassment compared to more verbal/personal skills-oriented fields. This contradicts media narratives about tech having unusually high harassment rates. Scott notes the strong correlation between at-work and out-of-work harassment rates across fields, suggesting differences may be more related to the people in each field rather than workplace cultures. He urges caution in interpreting the results, acknowledges potential biases, and calls for more rigorous research on this topic given the lack of good comparative data across industries. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Adam Grant's article on gender differences in tech, arguing Grant misrepresents evidence and ignores key factors like innate interest differences between men and women. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Adam Grant's article on gender differences, arguing that Grant misrepresents scientific evidence and ignores important factors like interest differences between men and women. Scott presents alternative explanations for gender imbalances in tech and other fields, emphasizing innate differences in interests rather than discrimination. He expresses concern about the hostile climate developing in tech around these issues. Shorter summary

The post argues against the idea that the Griggs vs. Duke Power Co. case is responsible for credentialism in employment, presenting evidence that the issue is more complex and widespread. Longer summary

This post challenges the common belief that the Griggs vs. Duke Power Co. Supreme Court case is responsible for the rise of credentialism in employment. The author presents several arguments against this notion: 1) The Griggs decision applies equally to college degrees and IQ tests, yet degrees are still widely used. 2) Other countries without similar laws face similar credentialism issues. 3) It's legal and possible for employers to ask for SAT scores (which approximate IQ tests), but this practice hasn't caught on. 4) Fields with standardized tests (like medicine) still heavily rely on credentials. The author concludes that the roots of credentialism likely lie deeper than this single court decision. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines his evolving view on scientific consensus, realizing it's more reliable and self-correcting than he previously thought. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on his changing perspective towards scientific consensus, sharing personal experiences where he initially believed he was defying consensus but later discovered that the scientific community was often ahead of or aligned with his views. He discusses examples from various fields including the replication crisis, nutrition science, social justice issues, and AI risk. Alexander concludes that scientific consensus, while not perfect, is remarkably effective and trustworthy, often self-correcting within a decade of new evidence emerging. Shorter summary

A links post featuring various news and articles about politics, science, and culture, with Scott's commentary on research papers and current events. Longer summary

This is a links post compiling various interesting news and articles from around the web. Topics range from climate change and politics to scientific studies and charitable giving. Scott comments on several research papers, including ones about non-citizen voting and healthcare in Cuba. The post also includes interesting side notes about geography, prison marriages, and literary references. Many of the links are accompanied by Scott's brief commentary or witty observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that accusations of Trump being an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are exaggerated and harmful, and calls for more measured criticism of Trump's actual flaws. Longer summary

In this post, Scott Alexander argues that accusations of racism and white supremacy against Donald Trump and his supporters are exaggerated and harmful. He contends that while Trump has said and done problematic things, claims that he is an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are not supported by evidence. Alexander reviews various arguments about Trump's alleged racism and rebuts them, citing statistics and providing context. He argues that treating Trump as uniquely racist compared to past presidents is inaccurate and counterproductive. The post ends with a call to stop 'crying wolf' about racism, as it causes unnecessary fear and may desensitize people to real instances of racism in the future. Alexander makes several predictions about what will happen under a Trump presidency to back up his argument. Shorter summary