Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange.

Scott examines Moltbook (an AI social network) to determine if AI behavior is 'real' by analyzing external causes and effects, finding that while AIs create impressive projects, their short time horizons prevent sustained organization, though this may change as capabilities improve.

Scott analyzes the results of the 2025 ACX reader survey, revealing interesting patterns in reader demographics, beliefs, and behaviors, with some surprising contrasts between vocal commenters and the general readership.

The post explores recent advances in AI forecasting, discusses the concept of 'rationality engines', reviews a study on AI risk predictions, and provides updates on various prediction markets.

Scott Alexander explores recent advancements in AI-powered prediction markets, including bot-based systems, AI forecasters, and their potential impact on future predictions and decision-making.

Scott Alexander presents a visual tour of the Bay Area's eccentricities through a series of photos with humorous commentary.

A diverse collection of links and brief comments on recent developments in science, technology, politics, and society, ranging from climate change to AI developments to social experiments.

The review examines 'Lying for Money' by Dan Davies, which explores various types of financial fraud and their economic implications, discussing main themes and types of white-collar crime.

Scott explores various technological and market-based approaches to dating and relationships, including prediction markets, matching sites, and cryptocurrency concepts.

A satirical account of a Bay Area house party featuring absurd conversations on tech, culture, and startups, ending with the protagonist's plan to profit from the information gained.

Scott Alexander argues for a nuanced view of cryptocurrency, highlighting its legitimate uses and potential benefits despite common criticisms.

Scott Alexander analyzes the potential role of psychopharmacology in the FTX crash, discussing medications used by SBF and others, and their possible effects on decision-making.

Scott summarizes interesting comments on his 'Rhythms of the Brain' book review, covering various aspects of brain waves and related topics.

Scott Alexander shares 40 diverse and intriguing links and news items from September 2022, covering topics from AI advancements to political analysis and cultural observations.

Scott Alexander examines several model city projects, including Saudi Arabia's Neom, criticizing its unrealistic plans and discussing other developments in crypto-friendly zones and floating cities.

Scott Alexander discusses the technical implementation details of impact markets for charity funding, exploring various options and challenges.

Scott Alexander satirizes Bay Area culture through a fictional house party filled with eccentric characters and outlandish startup ideas.

Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments.

Scott examines the recent crackdown on Polymarket, critiques US policy on prediction markets, and discusses the future and potential of both prediction markets and cryptocurrency.

Scott Alexander examines recent developments in model cities, including political threats to ZEDEs in Honduras, El Salvador's Bitcoin city plan, and the mysterious Praxis project.

Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made by himself and two others in April 2020, discussing the results and their implications for forecasting.

Scott Alexander presents a satirical list of fictional cryptocurrencies and the humorous reasons for their ban by the SEC.

A diverse collection of news items and interesting links covering science, technology, politics, and culture, with brief commentary on each.

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2018 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and discussing factors that affected his performance.

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and news items, covering topics from historical anecdotes to recent scientific studies and cultural trends.