Scott argues against the concept of "telescopic altruism" - the claim that liberals care more about distant strangers than nearby people - showing that people who care about faraway causes also care about nearby ones, and that compassion is generally correlated across all distances rather than inversely related. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the concept of "telescopic altruism," which claims that some people (usually liberals) ignore those close to them to care about distant strangers. He argues this accusation collapses under scrutiny: people who care about 50,000 deaths in Gaza would also care about 50,000 deaths among their neighbors. He debunks a commonly cited study whose heatmap visualization is misinterpreted to suggest liberals care more about rocks than family, when it actually just shows the outer limit of their moral concern. Scott proposes instead a "correlated altruism" hypothesis, citing Dave Barry's principle that someone nice to waiters is genuinely nice. He provides evidence that liberals who support foreign aid also support domestic programs like school lunches and COVID measures, and shows statistics suggesting liberals aren't worse at maintaining family relationships. The post concludes by acknowledging that some people do neglect their communities, but argues this happens because they care too much and are incompetent, not because they don't care at all. Shorter summary

Scott presents evidence that COVID-19 did kill approximately 1.2 million Americans, addressing skeptics by analyzing excess death data and addressing common counterarguments. Longer summary

In response to skeptics questioning the official COVID-19 death toll, Scott Alexander presents evidence supporting the 1.2 million deaths figure. He shows excess mortality data from multiple sources indicating 500,000-700,000 extra deaths in both 2020 and 2021, closely matching reported COVID deaths. He addresses various counter-arguments, including the 'died with vs of COVID' distinction, the role of treatments like ventilators, and the common experience of not personally knowing COVID victims. The post demonstrates how the data supports COVID being the primary cause, and explains why personal experiences might not reflect the true scale of the pandemic. Shorter summary

Scott examines the likelihood and potential severity of an H5N1 bird flu pandemic, analyzing prediction markets and historical data to estimate a 5% chance of pandemic in the next year with most likely moderate severity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a comprehensive overview of H5N1 bird flu and its pandemic potential. He starts by explaining what flu is and its history of pandemics, then focuses on H5N1's current situation, analyzing prediction market estimates for its chances of causing a pandemic. The post examines different mortality scenarios and their likelihood, using data from past flu pandemics and current cases. It concludes with specific predictions about H5N1's future impact, suggesting a 5% chance of human pandemic in the next year, with varying degrees of severity if it occurs. Shorter summary

The post argues against California's Proposition 36, claiming it will increase imprisonment without effectively reducing crime or drug use, and suggests alternative solutions. Longer summary

This post argues against California's Proposition 36, which aims to increase mandatory sentences for certain drug and theft crimes. The author contends that while Prop 36 will certainly imprison more people, it won't effectively combat crime. The post analyzes the proposition's impact on drug-related offenses and theft, using data to show that increased sentencing doesn't correlate with reduced drug use or crime rates. It also points out the lack of treatment resources required by the proposition and the potential negative impact on existing crime prevention programs. The author suggests that instead of longer sentences, California should focus on targeted interventions, increased police resources, and expanding treatment options for drug addiction. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander challenges Robin Hanson's claim that medicine doesn't work by analyzing health insurance studies and presenting evidence of medicine's effectiveness. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Robin Hanson's claim that medicine doesn't work, analyzing three major health insurance experiments (RAND, Oregon, and Karnataka) and other studies. He argues that these studies are underpowered to detect medication effects and don't support Hanson's conclusion, citing evidence of medicine's effectiveness in improving survival rates for various diseases. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a detailed response to comments and criticisms of his previous post on the COVID-19 origins debate. He addresses arguments against zoonosis, clarifies misunderstandings, and discusses the methodologies used by various parties in the debate. He maintains his position favoring zoonosis over lab leak, while acknowledging the complexity of the issue and the ongoing nature of the debate. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses feedback on his post about bisexuality and Long COVID, discussing alternative explanations and defending his methodology. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about the correlation between bisexuality and Long COVID. He addresses alternative explanations, concerns about sample size and methodology, the nature of psychosomatic illness, and various other points raised by readers. Scott maintains that while the association exists in the data, the cause remains uncertain and could be due to various factors including response patterns, biological differences, or a combination of organic and psychosomatic elements. Shorter summary

Anna Schaffner's 'Exhaustion: A History' traces explanations for chronic fatigue from ancient times to modern Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, showing how they reflect contemporary cultural and scientific ideas. Longer summary

The book 'Exhaustion: A History' by Anna Schaffner explores the concept of chronic, pathological exhaustion throughout Western history. It traces various explanatory models used in science and culture, from ancient humoral theory to modern conceptions of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS). The author argues that while the symptoms have remained consistent, the explanations for exhaustion have changed over time, reflecting contemporary cultural and scientific ideas. The book covers religious, moral, sexual, and medical explanations, culminating in the current debates surrounding CFS and its controversial status in modern medicine. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores new data on birth order effects among his blog readers, finding social factors likely explain firstborns' overrepresentation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander revisits the birth order effect he discovered in his blog readership in 2018, presenting new data from a 2020 survey. He confirms the original findings that firstborns are overrepresented among his readers, especially when age gaps between siblings are small. The post explores potential explanations, concluding that social factors, particularly parental attention, likely play a larger role than biological factors. This challenges some established views on the impact of early childhood experiences on adult outcomes. Scott acknowledges limitations in his analysis and calls for further research to better understand these effects. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines obscure pregnancy interventions that may improve child outcomes, rating them by evidence quality and potential impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various obscure pregnancy interventions that could potentially improve child outcomes, particularly IQ. He rates them in tiers based on evidence strength and potential impact, with Tier 1 being most strongly supported. Key interventions discussed include embryo selection, choline supplementation, avoiding stress and certain substances, and optimizing birth timing. He emphasizes these are extreme measures not meant to induce guilt, and that standard pregnancy advice is still most important. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Wizard and the Prophet' by Charles Mann, exploring contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt and Norman Borlaug. Longer summary

This review of Charles Mann's 'The Wizard and the Prophet' explores the contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt (the 'Prophet') and Norman Borlaug (the 'Wizard'). The reviewer initially favors Borlaug's Wizardly approach of using science and technology to solve problems, but later acknowledges the complexity of modern systems may require a more holistic approach. The review covers the book's structure, discussing the biographies of Vogt and Borlaug, and then exploring four key areas: food, water, energy, and climate change. The reviewer concludes by reflecting on the challenges of COVID-19 and the need to continue striving for improvement despite increasing complexity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander writes a humorous poem about getting the COVID-19 vaccine, set to a Les Misérables tune, exploring lockdown frustrations and the complexities of returning to normalcy. Longer summary

This post is a creative writing piece in the form of verses set to the tune of a song from Les Misérables. It humorously depicts the experience of getting the COVID-19 vaccine and the conflicting desires between citizens wanting freedom and epidemiologists urging continued caution. The verses highlight various frustrations with lockdowns, and end with the narrator receiving the vaccine but still being advised to follow restrictions. The piece concludes with the narrator expressing a sense of freedom and resentment towards the FDA for delays in vaccine approval. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the history and mechanism of DNP, a dangerous but effective weight-loss drug, and discusses recent developments in safer mitochondrial uncoupling agents. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses 2,4-dinitrophenol (DNP), a controversial and dangerous weight-loss drug that works by uncoupling mitochondria. He traces its history from the 1930s to modern times, explaining its effectiveness and severe side effects. The post then explores recent developments in mitochondrial uncoupling research, including potential safer alternatives and therapeutic applications beyond weight loss. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically evaluates the evidence for Vitamin D's role in COVID-19 prevention and treatment, ultimately leaning towards skepticism while acknowledging the low risk of supplementation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the evidence for and against Vitamin D's effectiveness in preventing or treating COVID-19. He reviews various studies, including observational data, randomized controlled trials, and Mendelian randomization studies. While some evidence suggests a potential link between Vitamin D levels and COVID-19 outcomes, Scott ultimately leans towards skepticism. He discusses possible confounding factors and methodological issues in some of the positive studies. Despite his skepticism, Scott acknowledges the low risk of Vitamin D supplementation and suggests it may still be beneficial for other reasons. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response. Longer summary

This post covers various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdown effectiveness, heterogeneity in infection rates across countries, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations. Scott discusses cell phone data showing limited impact of official lockdowns, explores reasons for varying infection/mortality rates between countries, and highlights the role of speaking/singing in virus transmission. He also examines coronavirus prediction markets, questions the long-term sustainability of lockdowns, and ponders how to quantify the severity of COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes. The post concludes with numerous short updates and links on coronavirus-related topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the Amish health care system, which costs much less than the American system while maintaining good health outcomes, and considers its implications for broader healthcare policy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the Amish health care system, comparing it to the modern American system. He notes that the Amish spend much less on healthcare while maintaining good health outcomes, though they have slightly lower life expectancy. The Amish system relies on church aid and a simple insurance-like institution called Amish Hospital Aid. Key factors in their lower costs include collective bargaining, avoiding unnecessary care, not suing doctors, and price-sensitive consumption. Scott considers the applicability of this system to wider society and reflects on how healthcare costs have changed over time, suggesting a possible self-reinforcing cycle between rising costs and the spread of health insurance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews evidence on face mask effectiveness against coronavirus, concluding they likely offer some protection despite CDC recommendations against general public use. Longer summary

This post examines the effectiveness of face masks in preventing coronavirus transmission. It reviews theoretical reasons, case-control studies, randomized trials, and laboratory studies on surgical masks and N95 respirators. The author concludes that while not perfect, surgical masks likely offer some protection against infection in high-risk situations. The post also discusses the CDC's recommendations against mask use for the general public, suggesting this may be due to high standards of proof in medical communication rather than intentional deception. The author ultimately recommends considering mask use in high-risk situations if supplies are not limited, while emphasizing that masks are not a substitute for avoiding such situations when possible. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses Infowars readers about a misattributed survey analysis, providing caveats and emphasizing proper attribution and vaccine safety. Longer summary

Scott Alexander addresses new readers from Infowars, who linked to his blog regarding a survey analysis about mental illness and political affiliation. He clarifies that the analysis was not his own but done by a Twitter user using his survey data. Scott provides several important caveats about the interpretation of these results, including potential biases in diagnosis rates and the unrepresentative nature of his blog's audience. He also points out that a similar finding was reported using the more rigorous General Social Survey. Scott emphasizes the importance of proper attribution in media reporting and reiterates the safety of vaccines. Shorter summary

Scott investigates unusually high suicide rates in Guyana, Greenland, and Siberian regions, exploring potential ethnic, cultural, and social factors contributing to these trends. Longer summary

This post explores unusually high suicide rates in different parts of the world, focusing on Guyana, Greenland, and remote Siberian regions. Scott examines potential causes for these high rates, including ethnic and cultural factors, alcohol consumption, social disruption, and abuse. For Guyana, he notes the high rate among Indo-Guyanese, speculating on possible cultural or historical reasons. In Greenland, he discusses the dramatic increase in suicide rates since the 1970s, linking it to forced modernization and a spike in alcohol consumption. For Siberian groups, he explores various theories including genetics and cultural traditions, but ultimately suggests that the combination of alcohol-naive hunter-gatherers, high alcohol consumption, and disruption of traditional ways of life may be the primary factors across these regions. Shorter summary

This post examines the pros and cons of using gene editing technologies in humans, discussing scientific, medical, and ethical considerations. Longer summary

This post discusses the potential uses, risks, and ethical implications of gene editing technologies in humans. It covers the science behind CRISPR, its safety and efficiency, the relationship between genetics and disease, and potential applications in treating conditions like cancer and HIV. The authors explore complex questions around genetic enhancement and 'designer babies', highlighting both the promise and perils of this technology. They conclude that while gene editing holds great potential, especially for certain genetic diseases, its use must be carefully regulated and ethically considered. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines conflicting narratives about cancer treatment progress, analyzing data to show that while some improvements are due to social factors, there's evidence of genuine advancements in cancer treatment and outcomes. Longer summary

This post examines the progress made in the 'War on Cancer' by analyzing cancer incidence rates, mortality rates, and five-year survival rates. Scott Alexander explores two competing narratives: one suggesting significant progress and another claiming limited success. He delves into the data, considering factors like age adjustment, smoking trends, and early detection biases. The analysis reveals that while some improvements are due to social factors like reduced smoking, there's evidence of genuine progress in cancer treatment. Stage-specific survival rates have improved, and studies adjusting for various confounders still show advancements. The post concludes that while progress may not meet the grand expectations set in the past, there has been a gradual but real improvement in cancer treatment and outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines melatonin's effects, proper dosage, and uses for sleep disorders and circadian rhythm issues, emphasizing its dual role as a hypnotic and chronobiotic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of melatonin, its effects, and proper usage. He explains that melatonin functions as both a hypnotic (inducing sleep) and a chronobiotic (shifting circadian rhythms). The post covers optimal dosing (0.3 mg, much lower than commonly available doses), use in treating circadian rhythm disorders, jet lag, and potential connections to other psychiatric conditions like seasonal affective disorder and depression. Scott also discusses personal experiences with melatonin, including its tendency to cause early waking and vivid dreams in some people. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links spanning architecture, science, politics and economics, with commentary on studies about lithium, lead exposure, minimum wage, and free speech. Longer summary

This is a links post where Scott Alexander shares various interesting articles and studies from around the internet. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, science, politics, economics, and social issues. Notable items include a study showing lithium in drinking water may not have significant effects, research about the lead-crime hypothesis, discussions about minimum wage studies in Seattle, and various pieces about free speech and campus politics. Shorter summary

Scott summarizes diverse perspectives from comments on his school choice article, covering topics like education costs, charter schools, and potential market failures in education. Longer summary

This post summarizes key points from the comment thread on Scott's previous article about school choice. It covers various perspectives on for-profit vs. nonprofit schools, cost increases in education, food deserts, charter schools, and potential market failures in education. Scott notes some arguments that made him more pessimistic about charter schools, but maintains that careful experimentation is needed. The post concludes by acknowledging that Betsy DeVos' policies don't qualify as careful experimentation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the relationship between gun ownership and homicide rates, finding a likely causal link but noting it's not the main factor in the US's high murder rate. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the relationship between gun ownership and homicide rates in the US, critiquing misleading statistics and conducting a more rigorous analysis. He finds that while there is likely a causal relationship between gun ownership and homicide rates, it's not the primary factor explaining the US's high murder rate compared to other developed countries. He tentatively concludes that gun control measures similar to Australia's might be beneficial, but emphasizes the need for further research. Shorter summary