Scott explains why Midjourney's new ultrasound tomography scanner, despite being technologically interesting, faces major medical limitations and is unlikely to replace existing imaging methods or enable useful whole-body screening without significant future AI improvements. Longer summary

Scott analyzes Midjourney's announcement of a new medical scanner that uses ultrasound tomography to create 3D images of the body. He explains why, despite being technologically interesting, the scanner faces significant medical limitations: ultrasound cannot penetrate bone or air, limiting its usefulness compared to existing MRI and CT scans; it can't replace portable bedside ultrasound due to requiring patients to be submerged in water; and whole-body screening scans (even with existing superior MRI technology) are currently not recommended by medical consensus due to false positives causing more harm than benefit. Scott suggests the technology might become more viable if future AI advances dramatically improve ultrasound interpretation, wave dynamics for imaging through bone, and the ability to distinguish dangerous findings from harmless abnormalities. The post includes an appendix with Twitter responses from radiologists (universally negative) and other commenters (more optimistic), discussing potential applications like body composition measurement and the challenges of medical screening. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes comments on his previous post about POSIWID, showing how the phrase's ambiguity leads to multiple contradictory interpretations while promoting conspiracy thinking. Longer summary

Scott responds to comments on his previous post about the phrase 'The Purpose of a System is What it Does' (POSIWID). He examines various interpretations offered by commenters and argues that while some contain valuable insights, the phrase itself is problematic. He shows how POSIWID can push people from balanced views toward paranoid conspiracy theories, and demonstrates how different commenters interpret the phrase in contradictory ways. Scott argues that the phrase's ambiguity allows people to smuggle in unwarranted assumptions and that there are clearer ways to express any valuable insights it might contain. Shorter summary

Scott shares various interesting links and news items from January 2025, covering topics from AI development and politics to historical curiosities and economic trends. Longer summary

This links post covers a wide array of topics from January 2025, with Scott providing commentary and analysis on each. The links include discussions about running for Congress, AI development and safety, dating advice, psychiatric diagnoses, and various economic and technological developments. Scott often adds his own insights and sometimes skepticism to the claims being discussed. The post also includes several historical curiosities and social observations, maintaining a mix of serious analysis and lighter interesting facts. Shorter summary

Scott shares 55 interesting links covering topics from AI poetry to religious movements, including updates on various projects, unusual historical events, and current developments in technology, politics, and society. Longer summary

This is Scott's monthly links post for December 2024, collecting various interesting stories and developments. The links cover a wide range of topics, from Steven Seagal's bizarre life trajectory to developments in AI and technology, including updates on previous ACX topics and grants. Many links relate to ongoing discussions in the rationalist and EA communities, including debates about effective altruism and charitable giving. The post also includes various curiosities from history, culture, and current events, with Scott often providing his own analysis or perspective on the items shared. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the political battle over California's AI safety bill SB 1047, its veto by Governor Newsom, and the implications for future AI regulation efforts. Longer summary

This post recounts the story behind SB 1047, a California bill aimed at regulating AI safety that was passed by the legislature but vetoed by Governor Newsom. Scott discusses the bill's supporters and opponents, the political maneuvering involved, and the aftermath of the veto. He analyzes the reasons for the veto, suggesting it was influenced by Silicon Valley donors and interests. The post also explores potential future strategies for AI regulation advocates, including possible alliances with left-wing groups. Scott concludes with reasons for optimism despite the setback, noting growing public support for AI regulation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the surprisingly broad effects of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, exploring their mechanisms and speculating on why they seem to impact so many different conditions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the wide-ranging effects of GLP-1 receptor agonist medications like Ozempic, which are approved for diabetes and obesity but show promise for many other conditions. He delves into the mechanisms behind their effects on diabetes, weight loss, and addiction, speculating on why these drugs seem to have such broad impacts. The post discusses how GLP-1 drugs work in the brain to reduce hunger and dampen reward systems, potentially explaining their effects on addiction. Scott also touches on their anti-inflammatory properties and potential benefits for neurodegenerative diseases, while cautioning that some reported effects may not replicate. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical, fictional Republican primary debate with absurd rules to highlight candidate personalities and critique political debate formats. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical, fictional account of a Republican primary debate with unusual rules. The debate features Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Donald Trump answering questions while adhering to increasingly absurd constraints, such as avoiding specific letters, using certain words or phrases, or speaking in specific poetic forms. The satire highlights the candidates' personalities and political positions while critiquing the format of political debates and the state of American politics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'The Gervais Principle', a book offering insights into organizational dynamics through a classification of three personality types, finding it thought-provoking but not entirely convincing. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'The Gervais Principle' by Venkatesh Rao, a book that claims to offer insights into organizational dynamics and human behavior through a classification system of three types: Sociopaths, Losers, and Clueless. The book combines elements of psychoanalysis, developmental psychology, and status economics to explain workplace dynamics and personal development. Scott finds the typology interesting but not entirely convincing, appreciating the book's ability to provoke thought and provide a framework for understanding organizational behavior, while questioning its universal applicability and some of its core claims. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Don't Look Up', critiquing its contradictory narratives about trusting science and experts vs. outsiders. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the movie 'Don't Look Up', focusing on its political implications rather than its message about existential risk. He summarizes the plot, then critiques the film's self-contradictory narratives about trusting experts vs. trusting outsiders. Scott argues that the movie unintentionally encourages conspiracy thinking while trying to promote 'trusting science'. He explains how people often hold contradictory political narratives, deploying whichever is convenient. The review concludes that the film succeeds in conveying emotions around existential risk debates but fails to coherently follow through on its intended message. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction market forecasts about the Omicron COVID-19 variant, discussing its potential transmissibility, lethality, and prevalence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses predictions about the Omicron variant of COVID-19 using data from prediction markets, particularly Metaculus. He examines forecasts on the variant's transmissibility (R0), lethality compared to Delta, and its expected prevalence in the US. The post highlights that Metaculus predicts Omicron to be more transmissible than Delta, with a 34% chance of being deadlier, and likely to become the dominant US variant by mid-March. Scott concludes with a humorous tweet about the rapid emergence of new variants. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses reader responses to his review of Viktor Orban's leadership in Hungary, exploring debates around authoritarianism, democracy, and effective governance. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his review of Viktor Orban's governance in Hungary. Key points include debates over whether Orban qualifies as a dictator, comparisons to other political leaders, analysis of Hungary's electoral system and immigration policies, and reflections on the tradeoffs between decisive governance and maintaining democratic safeguards. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile', which explores the concept of benefiting from disorder across various domains and critiques modern attempts to reduce volatility. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Nassim Taleb's book 'Antifragile', which introduces the concept of antifragility - things that gain from disorder and volatility. The book explores this concept through various domains including finance, evolution, exercise, and government policy. Taleb argues that many modern systems and approaches, in trying to reduce volatility, actually increase fragility to large shocks. The review discusses Taleb's critique of academia, his preference for practical knowledge over theory, and his views on the benefits of smaller, decentralized systems. Scott compares Taleb's ideas to other thinkers like James Scott and David Chapman, seeing 'Antifragile' as part of a broader intellectual counterculture questioning conventional approaches to knowledge and governance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that a New York Times article misrepresented economists' views on school vouchers, offering evidence and proposing a bet to prove the article was misleading. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a New York Times article that claimed economists generally don't support school vouchers. He argues the article misrepresented survey data and gave a misleading impression. Scott points out that the data could be interpreted to support the opposite conclusion, that the article's phrasing likely led readers to an incorrect understanding of economists' views, and that a follow-up survey showed much stronger economist support for vouchers. He offers to bet that most readers would get a false impression from the article, initially agreeing to a bet with Noah Smith, though this later fell through. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the relationship between gun ownership and homicide rates, finding a likely causal link but noting it's not the main factor in the US's high murder rate. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the relationship between gun ownership and homicide rates in the US, critiquing misleading statistics and conducting a more rigorous analysis. He finds that while there is likely a causal relationship between gun ownership and homicide rates, it's not the primary factor explaining the US's high murder rate compared to other developed countries. He tentatively concludes that gun control measures similar to Australia's might be beneficial, but emphasizes the need for further research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Hive Mind' by Garett Jones, which argues that national IQ matters more for economic success than individual IQ, while raising several criticisms of the book's methodology and conclusions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Garett Jones' book 'Hive Mind', which explores the hypothesis that a nation's average IQ matters more for its economic success than individual IQs. The book presents various studies and theories to support this idea, including how high-IQ individuals are better at cooperation and long-term thinking. Scott finds the book interesting but raises several criticisms, including questions about the direction of causality between IQ and development, and how the findings from small-scale experiments might apply to real-world nations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents 50 new 'Tom Swifties', a form of wordplay combining quotes with punning adverbs, in his third collection of these jokes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of 50 'Tom Swifties', a form of wordplay where a quoted sentence is linked to a punning adverb. This post is the third in a series, following two previous collections. The Swifties range from simple puns to more complex jokes requiring knowledge of history, literature, or pop culture. Some entries are credited to commenters from previous posts. The humor often relies on double meanings, homophones, or creative interpretations of phrases. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Malcolm Muggeridge's autobiography, examining his experiences exposing Stalin's regime and the West's willful ignorance of Soviet crimes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Malcolm Muggeridge's autobiography 'Chronicles of Wasted Time', focusing on Muggeridge's experiences as a journalist in the Soviet Union during Stalin's regime and his later disillusionment with socialism. The review highlights Muggeridge's cynical worldview, his role in exposing Stalin's atrocities, and the widespread willful ignorance of Western intellectuals towards Soviet crimes. Scott reflects on the importance of contrarianism and rationality in evaluating evidence, while also noting Muggeridge's later questionable stances on other issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the declining effectiveness of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, proposing that its core ideas have become part of popular culture, potentially explaining its decreased impact. Longer summary

The post explores the declining effectiveness of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) over time. Scott Alexander compares his experience with CBT to that described in a book by a prominent CBT therapist, noting a stark difference in patient responses. He then proposes a theory that CBT's core ideas have become part of popular culture, making the therapy less novel and potentially less effective. The post discusses how this 'CBT in the water supply' phenomenon might explain the therapy's decreasing impact, while also considering other factors like changes in study quality or patient populations. The author speculates on how this cultural absorption of CBT principles might affect its placebo effect and overall efficacy. Shorter summary

The post presents 50 'Tom Swifties', a form of wordplay involving quotes and related adverbs, demonstrating the author's wit and knowledge across various fields. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 50 'Tom Swifties', a form of wordplay where a quoted sentence is linked to an adverb that relates to the quote in a punning manner. The author extends this concept beyond just Tom, including other characters and historical figures. The puns range from simple to complex, often requiring knowledge of literature, history, or current events to fully appreciate. The post demonstrates the author's wit and extensive knowledge across various fields, while also showcasing their ability to craft intricate wordplays. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the parallels between social justice and anti-social justice groups, arguing that shared experiences of perceived persecution could lead to better understanding and less conflict. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the similarities between social justice and anti-social justice narratives, showing how both groups often feel persecuted and develop similar defensive mechanisms. He argues that this shared experience of perceived threat, even when statistically unlikely, leads to hypervigilance and extreme reactions from both sides. Scott suggests that as both groups now face similar challenges, there may be an opportunity for mutual understanding and the development of protocols to prevent escalation. He advises against dismissing the fears of either side and proposes that recognizing the shared experience of fear could lead to more productive dialogue. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reimagines the biblical story of Job as a philosophical dialogue about the existence of evil and suffering in God's creation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical retelling of the biblical story of Job, exploring philosophical questions about the existence of evil and suffering in a universe created by an omnipotent, benevolent God. The dialogue between Job and God touches on concepts like multiple universes, the nature of consciousness, and utilitarian ethics. God explains His creation of multiple universes, including perfectly happy ones and those with varying degrees of suffering, to maximize overall happiness. The post ends with a humorous twist on the original story and includes related tweets by the author. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering topics like Chinese religion, economics, science, and technology, with commentary on their broader implications. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting news and studies from around the internet. Topics range from Chinese religion to Venezuelan economics, from police body cameras to psychedelics research. Notable items include studies about police body cameras reducing misconduct, BPA affecting brain development, and psychedelics potentially protecting against mental illness. The post also covers geopolitical developments like Cuba-US relations and Venezuela's economic troubles, as well as scientific advances like AI poker and mammoth cloning. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques feminist stereotyping of nerds, arguing that nerds' social struggles are real and not simply male entitlement. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Laurie Penny's article about 'nerd entitlement,' arguing that feminists often unfairly stereotype and shame nerdy men. He contends that nerds' social difficulties and pain are real, and not simply a result of male entitlement or privilege. Alexander criticizes the tendency to dismiss nerds' struggles and accuse them of misogyny, arguing this perpetuates harmful stereotypes. He calls for more understanding and nuance in discussions of gender, privilege, and social dynamics in nerd culture. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander uses an analogy between race and culture to argue that mathematical clustering arguments don't determine whether race 'exists' any more than they determine whether culture 'exists'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of 'Eulering,' using complex math to debunk common sense ideas, and proposes 'Feynmaning' as a counter-technique. He applies this to the debate about race, comparing arguments against race as a biological concept to similar arguments that could be made about culture. He concludes that mathematical arguments about clustering don't determine whether race 'exists' any more than they determine whether culture 'exists,' and suggests that race doesn't have any extra reality beyond culture. The post uses an analogy between race and culture to challenge both those who claim race isn't real and those who claim it's more 'scientific' than culture. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores a thought experiment based on the Asch conformity experiment to examine the strength and flexibility of personal beliefs and societal norms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a thought experiment inspired by the Asch conformity experiment, where one imagines being told that their beliefs are completely wrong according to everyone else in the 'real world'. He explores how this experiment might affect various beliefs, from personal convictions to societal norms, using examples like slavery in the antebellum South and vegetarianism. The post suggests that this thought experiment can be a powerful tool for examining one's beliefs, understanding moral progress, and even as a motivational technique. Scott also reflects on how this experiment might reveal which beliefs we hold most strongly and which we might be more willing to doubt or change. Shorter summary