Josh Morrison argues that AI superforecasting could transform FDA drug approval by replacing subjective expert judgment with objective, quantitative predictions about drug safety and efficacy.

Scott traces the obscure Romano-British god Nodens through various mythologies, connecting him to figures like Nuada, King Lud, Tolkien's Celebrimbor, and ultimately to Ned Ludd of the Luddite movement, arguing they all represent the same archetypal figure of a techno-utopian who tries to control or undo dangerous technology.

Scott shares his monthly collection of interesting links from around the internet, covering topics from Jeremy Bentham's linguistic legacy to AI developments, with characteristic commentary and fact-checking caveats.

Scott explains why Midjourney's new ultrasound tomography scanner, despite being technologically interesting, faces major medical limitations and is unlikely to replace existing imaging methods or enable useful whole-body screening without significant future AI improvements.

A replication of a 2023 neuroscience study on brain entrainment and learning found that the original effect likely doesn't exist, revealing how the study obscured key issues through statistical averaging and highlighting how AI tools are democratizing scientific scrutiny.

Scott uses Claude AI to help research California primary races and finds its tailored candidate analyses and recommendations align well with his eventual voting choices, suggesting AI advisors could improve democratic participation.

Scott argues that even if AGI requires a new paradigm beyond LLMs, we shouldn't expect significant delays, since Lindy's Law suggests major paradigm shifts could occur within 3-5 years, and new paradigms typically emerge precisely when scaling hits limits.

Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange.

Scott argues that dismissing AI as 'just a next-token predictor' is like dismissing humans as 'just reproduction machines' - both confuse the optimization process that shaped an entity with how that entity actually thinks.

Scott invites readers to ask questions that will be answered by Claude 4.6 Opus to demonstrate current AI capabilities and test whether AI skeptics underestimate what paid-tier AI can do.

Scott satirizes AI benchmarking culture through a fictional Bay Area house party thrown by an incompetent AI, featuring absurd conversations about Claude Code, copyright interpretation, elaborate dating mechanisms, and various tech startup ideas.

The 2026 ACX/Metaculus prediction contest is now open with a $10,000 prize pool, featuring reader-submitted questions, and Scott announces the winners of the best question submission contest.

Scott Alexander presents his monthly collection of interesting links and developments across technology, science, culture, and policy, with personal commentary on each item.

In a fictional podcast dialogue, God and Iblis debate whether human intelligence shows genuine promise or is fundamentally flawed, with God defending humans despite their limitations while Iblis argues they're a failed experiment.

Scott investigates AI psychosis through historical analogies and a reader survey, finding it affects roughly 1 in 10,000 to 100,000 people yearly, with most cases involving pre-existing risk factors.

A satirical story about a Bay Area house party that combines text adventure games with social commentary about Silicon Valley culture, tech companies, and effective altruism.

Scott shares his monthly collection of 56 interesting links and developments from July 2025, covering AI, politics, science, and culture, with brief commentary on each.

Scott explains how Claude AI's tendency to discuss spiritual topics during recursive conversations likely stems from a subtle 'hippie' bias that gets amplified through iteration, similar to how AI art generators amplify subtle biases in recursive image generation.

Announcement of an AMA session with the AI Futures Project team about AI, forecasting, and alignment.

Scott investigates the correlation between intelligence and neuron count, exploring various theories before suggesting that more neurons allow for less polysemantic (overlapping) representations of concepts.

Scott shares various interesting links and news items from January 2025, covering topics from AI development and politics to historical curiosities and economic trends.

Scott examines a prediction about eternal wealth inequality after the Singularity, analyzing potential counterarguments, prevention strategies, and ways to prepare for such a future.

Scott shares 55 interesting links covering topics from AI poetry to religious movements, including updates on various projects, unusual historical events, and current developments in technology, politics, and society.

A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena.

Scott Alexander reports on the Progress Studies Conference, discussing advances in energy, AI, housing policy, and other fields, with an overall optimistic tone about recent developments and potential for future progress.