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26 posts found
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Feb 27, 2025
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Links For February 2025

45 min • 6,840 words • 933 comments • 212 likes • podcast (43 min)
Scott shares 50 diverse links covering topics from AI developments to policy changes, with commentary on current events, research findings, and societal trends. Longer summary
In this monthly links roundup, Scott Alexander covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, public policy changes, scientific research, and current events. The post follows a numbered format presenting each item with Scott's characteristic analysis and often humorous commentary. Notable topics include AI safety developments, changes in government policy, climate change updates, and various social and technological trends. The tone alternates between analytical and personal reflection, particularly when discussing potentially concerning political developments. Shorter summary
Feb 06, 2025
acx
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Money Saved By Canceling Programs Does Not Immediately Flow To The Best Possible Alternative

13 min • 1,995 words • 953 comments • 636 likes • podcast (12 min)
Scott argues that debates about prioritizing Americans over foreigners in the PEPFAR controversy miss the point, as cancelled foreign aid money wouldn't automatically fund effective domestic programs but would instead be spent much less efficiently. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques recent discussions about PEPFAR, a successful AIDS program in Africa that was briefly paused. He argues that debates about whether we should prioritize Americans over foreigners miss the key point: money saved from canceling highly effective programs like PEPFAR wouldn't automatically go to equally effective domestic programs. Instead, it would likely fund much less effective initiatives or get lost in general federal spending. The post explains how government spending tends to be inefficient, and argues that even if you value American lives more than foreign ones, the effectiveness gap between PEPFAR and likely alternative uses of the money is so large (around 100x) that you would need to value foreign lives at literally zero to justify canceling it. Shorter summary
Sep 11, 2023
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Highlights From The Comments On Last Week's Model Cities Post

35 min • 5,295 words • 84 comments • 49 likes • podcast (28 min)
The post discusses reader comments on various model city projects, focusing on the Solano County proposal and Prospera, while also addressing other related topics. Longer summary
This post highlights comments on recent Model City Monday topics, focusing on the proposed Solano County city in California and Prospera in Honduras. It covers various aspects such as location challenges, air noise concerns, legal issues, and political context. The post also touches on other model city projects like Neom and Praxis, and debunks a false claim about France selling Kerguelen Island. Shorter summary
Feb 09, 2023
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Links For February 2023

40 min • 6,180 words • 1,041 comments • 146 likes • podcast (41 min)
Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 49 links and brief commentaries on various topics, ranging from cultured meat to AI developments and current events. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 49 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, including cultured meat, government policies, scientific studies, historical anecdotes, AI developments, and current events. The author, Scott Alexander, provides his thoughts and observations on each item, often with a mix of humor, skepticism, and analysis. The links cover a wide range of subjects from technology and economics to politics and culture, reflecting the broad interests of the blog's readership. Shorter summary
Apr 06, 2022
acx
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Dictator Book Club: Xi Jinping

42 min • 6,466 words • 422 comments • 170 likes • podcast (48 min)
Scott reviews a book on Xi Jinping's rule, exploring China's government structure and Xi's rise to power, concluding that China's system failed to prevent authoritarianism. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Elizabeth Economy's book 'The Third Revolution' about Xi Jinping's rule in China, but finds it doesn't answer his key questions about how Xi came to power. He explores China's government structure, the pre-Xi era, Xi's rise to power, and his actions as leader. Scott concludes that China's oligarchic system failed to prevent authoritarianism, increasing his confidence in democracy, though he's uncertain about attributing China's economic success solely to its government. Shorter summary
Dec 09, 2021
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Does Georgism Work? Part 1: Is Land Really A Big Deal?

94 min • 14,489 words • 998 comments • 153 likes • podcast (110 min)
Lars Doucet presents evidence that land is still a major economic factor in modern times, contrary to some economists' claims. Longer summary
This post, written by Lars Doucet, is the first in a series examining the empirical basis for Georgism. It focuses on whether land is still a significant economic factor in modern times, as some economists argue it isn't. Doucet presents evidence that land is indeed a major economic factor, showing that it represents a large portion of urban real estate value, bank loans, personal assets, and government revenue potential. He also demonstrates that land ownership is highly concentrated among the wealthy, contributing to economic inequality. The post concludes that land is a 'really big deal' in modern economies, contrary to some economists' claims. Shorter summary
Feb 18, 2021
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Book Review: The Cult Of Smart

58 min • 8,989 words • 1,052 comments • 416 likes • podcast (53 min)
Scott Alexander reviews 'The Cult of Smart' by Freddie DeBoer, praising its main arguments while criticizing several aspects, particularly DeBoer's stance on education reform. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Freddie DeBoer's book 'The Cult of Smart', which argues that intelligence is largely innate and that society's obsession with academic achievement is misguided. The review praises the book's main theses but criticizes DeBoer's arguments on race, meritocracy, and education reform. Alexander particularly takes issue with DeBoer's support for expanding public education despite acknowledging its limitations, leading to a passionate critique of the school system as harmful to children. Shorter summary
Jan 30, 2020
ssc
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Book Review: Human Compatible

33 min • 5,043 words • 310 comments • podcast (35 min)
Stuart Russell's 'Human Compatible' presents AI safety concerns and potential solutions in an accessible way, though the reviewer has reservations about its treatment of current AI issues. Longer summary
Stuart Russell's book 'Human Compatible' discusses the potential risks of superintelligent AI and proposes solutions. The book is significant as it's written by a distinguished AI expert, making the topic more mainstream. Russell argues against common objections to AI risk, presents his research on Cooperative Inverse Reinforcement Learning as a potential solution, and discusses current AI misuses. The reviewer praises Russell's ability to make complex ideas accessible but expresses concern about the book's treatment of current AI issues, worried it might undermine credibility for future AI risk discussions. Shorter summary
Feb 25, 2019
ssc
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Wage Stagnation: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

42 min • 6,438 words • 288 comments • podcast (53 min)
Scott analyzes wage stagnation since 1973, examining various explanations and concluding that while wages have risen 40-50%, there is still significant decoupling from productivity due to multiple factors. Longer summary
This post analyzes the apparent wage stagnation and decoupling from productivity since 1973. Scott examines various explanations, including measurement issues, demographic changes, inflation calculations, increasing inequality, and policy changes. He concludes that wages have actually risen about 40-50% since 1973, but there is still a significant 50% decoupling from productivity. The main factors are increasing wage inequality (40%), inflation miscalculations (35%), and labor vs. capital inequality (15%). Scott breaks down potential causes and their relative importance, while noting several remaining questions and uncertainties. Shorter summary
Nov 13, 2018
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Preschool: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

35 min • 5,299 words • 164 comments • podcast (38 min)
Scott Alexander critically examines studies on preschool effects, finding mixed and inconsistent evidence for long-term benefits. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews multiple studies on the long-term effects of preschool programs like Head Start. While early studies showed fade-out of test score gains, some found lasting benefits in adult outcomes. However, Scott finds inconsistencies between studies in which subgroups benefit and on which outcomes. He also notes concerns about potential p-hacking and researcher degrees of freedom. Ultimately, Scott concludes that the evidence is mixed - it permits believing preschool has small positive effects, but does not force that conclusion. He estimates 60% odds preschool helps in ways suggested by the studies, 40% odds it's useless. Shorter summary
Jul 18, 2018
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Fundamental Value Differences Are Not That Fundamental

23 min • 3,412 words • 706 comments • podcast (26 min)
Scott Alexander argues that fundamental value differences are less common and less aligned with political tribes than often assumed, emphasizing the need for coexistence despite varying values. Longer summary
Scott Alexander challenges the idea that fundamental value differences are a significant barrier to cooperation. He argues that many apparent value differences are actually factual disagreements or inconsistently applied principles. Using examples like foreign aid and immigration, he shows how people's values often shift based on context and convenience. Alexander suggests that while some fundamental value differences may exist, they don't necessarily align with political or cultural tribes. He concludes that since everyone has some value differences with everyone else, learning to coexist despite these differences is crucial. Shorter summary
Jun 28, 2018
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Highlights From The Comments On Piketty

24 min • 3,664 words • 169 comments • podcast (27 min)
Scott Alexander summarizes and analyzes various critiques of Thomas Piketty's 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century', finding that many of Piketty's key claims don't hold up well under scrutiny. Longer summary
This post summarizes various critiques and discussions of Thomas Piketty's book 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century'. Key points include: Matt Rognlie's criticism that Piketty didn't correctly account for capital depreciation, and that recent capital-share growth comes primarily from housing. The post questions Piketty's claim about higher returns for the super-rich, with various commenters providing insights on investment strategies and market behavior. It also discusses critiques of Piketty's income distribution statistics and data interpretation. The post concludes that many of Piketty's main claims, such as the rising rentier class and much better returns for the super-rich, don't hold up well under scrutiny, though some of his rules of thumb for growth are more robust than expected. Shorter summary
Jun 24, 2018
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Book Review: Capital In The Twenty-First Century

37 min • 5,698 words • 538 comments • podcast (42 min)
Scott Alexander reviews Piketty's 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century', finding its analysis of long-term economic trends and inequality compelling but pessimistic about proposed solutions. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Thomas Piketty's 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century', a book on inequality and macroeconomic history. The review covers Piketty's key arguments about economic growth, the rise and fall of rentiers, and increasing inequality. Scott finds Piketty's data and analysis compelling, particularly the idea that normal economic growth is always 1-1.5% per year and that the rate of return on capital tends to exceed economic growth, leading to increasing inequality over time. The review discusses potential solutions like wealth taxes, but is pessimistic about their implementation. It ends on some cautiously optimistic notes about global inequality reduction and the scientific nature of Piketty's approach. Shorter summary
Jun 13, 2018
ssc
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Links 6/18: Linkonberry Jam

20 min • 3,048 words • 814 comments
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links on topics ranging from science and politics to economics and culture, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary
This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, economic trends, technological advancements, and cultural phenomena. Scott Alexander provides brief commentary on many of the links, often adding context or his own thoughts. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with a focus on sharing intriguing information across diverse fields. Shorter summary
Apr 10, 2018
ssc
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Why DC’s Low Graduation Rates?

11 min • 1,596 words • 295 comments • podcast (13 min)
Scott analyzes the projected drop in DC's high school graduation rates, exploring various explanations and comparing DC to other states, ultimately suggesting widespread inflation of graduation rates elsewhere. Longer summary
This post discusses the projected drop in high school graduation rates in Washington DC from 73% to 42%. Scott examines possible explanations, including incompetent administration, unique challenges due to demographics, and overcorrection from previous fraud. He analyzes test scores and compares DC to other states, finding that DC's scores, while low, don't justify such a low graduation rate. Scott suggests that many other cities might be using fraud and low standards to inflate their graduation rates, and that DC's projected rate might be an overcorrection that unfairly penalizes students. He hopes DC will find ways to graduate more students to align with national norms. Shorter summary
Feb 19, 2018
ssc
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Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

45 min • 6,822 words • 523 comments • podcast (56 min)
Scott Alexander examines evidence for technological unemployment, finding little current impact but signs of 'technological underemployment' pushing workers to lower-skill jobs. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines the arguments for and against technological unemployment, analyzing labor force participation rates, manufacturing job losses, and economic data to determine if automation is currently causing significant job displacement. He concludes that while there's little evidence of technological unemployment happening right now, there are signs of 'technological underemployment' where automation is pushing workers from middle-skill to lower-skill jobs. The long-term impacts remain uncertain, with economists divided on whether this is a temporary adjustment or a new normal. Shorter summary
Mar 09, 2017
ssc
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Links 3/17: Siteochrome P450

20 min • 3,046 words • 859 comments
A wide-ranging links post covering recent research, political developments, and interesting findings across various fields, with particular focus on psychology research, political polling, and academic developments. Longer summary
An extensive roundup of links covering various topics in science, politics, and culture. Scott covers recent research on discrimination and peer effects, discusses political developments like Brexit polling and DNC chair elections, highlights interesting academic papers on personality and therapy, and shares various curiosities like tracking a child's first words. The post also covers developments in AI, drug regulation, and campus activism. The tone is analytical and exploratory, often questioning conventional wisdom and examining evidence from multiple angles. Shorter summary
Oct 04, 2016
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Links 10/16: New URLeans

13 min • 1,888 words • 221 comments
Scott shares various interesting news items and studies spanning history, science, politics, and technology, with commentary on each item's significance or irony. Longer summary
A diverse collection of interesting links and news items covering various topics. The post includes historical curiosities (like Merv being the world's largest city), scientific research (including studies about genetic risk for sugar consumption and school effects), political developments (like Steve Bannon's profile and Trump's microphone issues), technology news (AI partnership between tech giants), and social issues (discrimination studies and immigration effects). The post maintains a light, sometimes humorous tone while discussing serious subjects, often adding ironic observations about how things work. Shorter summary
Jul 28, 2016
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Links 7/16: Grad, Div, and URL

8 min • 1,210 words • 933 comments
A collection of interesting links spanning drug policy, scientific studies, historical oddities, and current events, with Scott's commentary on each. Longer summary
This is a links post collecting various interesting news and studies. It covers a wide range of topics including drug policy changes around suboxone, scientific studies about intelligence and inflammation, historical oddities like Japanese WWII plans, educational research, and current events. The post includes both serious academic content (like studies on behavioral therapy and economic effects of aging) and lighter items (like Pokemon Go at Holocaust museums). Scott provides brief commentary and context for each link, often connecting them to his previous writing or ongoing themes. Shorter summary
May 19, 2016
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Teachers: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

49 min • 7,545 words • 625 comments
Scott Alexander reviews research on teacher effectiveness, examining Value-Added Modeling (VAM) and its criticisms, while expressing uncertainty about claimed long-term impacts on adult earnings. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews research on teacher effectiveness, focusing on Value-Added Modeling (VAM) and its criticisms. He explores studies showing teachers account for about 10% of variance in student test scores, with effects decaying quickly over time. However, some controversial studies claim long-term impacts on adult earnings. Scott examines methodological issues, potential biases, and alternative explanations, ultimately expressing uncertainty about the validity of these long-term effects. He suggests non-cognitive factors like behavior might explain persistent impacts if they exist, but remains skeptical given the contrast with research showing minimal parental influence on outcomes. Shorter summary
Mar 23, 2016
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The Price Of Glee In China

12 min • 1,852 words • 782 comments
Scott Alexander examines the paradox of economic growth not increasing happiness in developing countries, questioning the moral implications for global development efforts. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the paradox that economic growth in developing countries like China doesn't seem to increase happiness, despite lifting millions out of poverty. He explores the implications of this for utilitarianism and effective altruism, questioning whether efforts to boost national development are truly beneficial if they don't increase happiness. The post examines various explanations and potential responses to this dilemma, including abandoning consequentialism, redefining happiness, or focusing on preference utilitarianism. Ultimately, Scott expresses discomfort with all these options and acknowledges the perplexing nature of happiness research. Shorter summary
Mar 09, 2016
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Links 3/16: Rulink Class

20 min • 3,099 words • 52 comments
A links roundup post covering recent developments in science, medicine, psychology and politics, with particular focus on research replication issues and the 2016 election season. Longer summary
This is a links roundup post covering various recent research findings, news, and developments. It covers topics from toxoplasma research, drug trials, and scientific replication crises to politics and social issues. The post discusses several important developments in psychology including failed replications of established theories like ego depletion, updates on clinical trials and drug research, and various political developments around the 2016 election season. It maintains a light tone while discussing serious academic and scientific topics, including several meta-analyses and study critiques. Shorter summary
Oct 29, 2015
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Links 10/15: Bride of Linkenstein

20 min • 2,965 words • 639 comments
A collection of interesting links covering science, education, politics and culture, with Scott Alexander's commentary and analysis on each. Longer summary
This is a links post collecting various interesting articles and studies. Notable topics include: an IQ study predicting US gains, a social site called Omnilibrium trying to improve filtering, FDA allowing 23andMe genetic tests at higher prices, evidence about pre-K education having potentially negative effects, and news about polio eradication. The post also covers topics like genetic engineering in China, studies about police reducing crime, and cultural analysis of urban violence. Many links come with Scott's brief commentary or analysis putting them in context. Shorter summary
Oct 16, 2014
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Five Case Studies On Politicization

38 min • 5,839 words • 824 comments
Scott Alexander examines how issues become politicized along tribal lines, preventing rational discussion and leading to counterproductive behaviors. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses how various issues become politicized and tied to tribal narratives, using examples like the Ebola quarantine debate, the Rotherham scandal, and climate change. He argues that when issues become referendums on tribal identity, it prevents rational discussion and leads to counterproductive behaviors. He suggests that framing issues in ways that respect out-group narratives could help, but notes this rarely happens due to media incentives. Shorter summary
Jun 28, 2014
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Book Review: The Two-Income Trap

45 min • 6,948 words • 263 comments
Scott Alexander reviews Elizabeth Warren's 'The Two-Income Trap', which argues increased two-income families have led to more competition for positional goods without improving financial security. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Elizabeth Warren's book 'The Two-Income Trap', which argues that the rise of two-income families has not improved financial security but instead led to increased competition for positional goods like houses in good school districts. The book challenges common narratives about overconsumption and suggests that families are actually spending similar amounts on luxuries as previous generations. Scott finds Warren's analysis insightful but questions some of her conclusions about the importance of school districts. He appreciates her non-partisan approach and willingness to consider market solutions alongside government intervention. Shorter summary
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