Scott Alexander shows how he won his 2022 bet about AI image generation capabilities, tracking the progress from early failures to complete success in 2025, using this to argue against AI skeptics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes the resolution of a bet he made in June 2022 about AI image generation capabilities. The bet claimed that by June 2025, AI would master image compositionality and be able to accurately generate specific complex scenes. The post shows the progression of AI image generation from 2022 to 2025, starting with early failures by DALL-E2, through various partial successes with Google Imagen and DALL-E3, and ending with ChatGPT 4o's complete success in May-June 2025. Scott uses this to argue against critics who claimed AI was just a 'stochastic parrot' that couldn't achieve true understanding, though he acknowledges some remaining limitations with very complex prompts. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links and brief comments on recent developments in science, technology, politics, and society, ranging from climate change to AI developments to social experiments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links and brief comments on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including climate change, AI developments, social experiments, scientific studies, political issues, and technological innovations. The author presents these topics with a mix of factual reporting, personal commentary, and sometimes humorous observations. The post touches on subjects like geoengineering, crypto for sex workers, AI art, fertility rates, dating apps, charity effectiveness, and many others. The author often provides links to original sources and sometimes offers his own analysis or opinion on the matters discussed. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses reader comments on his post about dating preferences, covering various perspectives and addressing critiques of 'dating docs'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his previous post about dating preferences and 'dating docs'. He covers various perspectives, including those against dating docs, concerns about status signaling, insights from traditional cultures like Orthodox Judaism, research on dating preferences, experiences of people in unusual relationships, reactions to sample dating profiles, and areas where he changed his mind. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 38 links and news items, covering topics from book reviews and religious history to AI developments and political trends, with brief summaries and comments on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 38 diverse links and news items covering topics such as book reviews, religious history, economic forecasts, libertarianism, crime statistics, scientific studies, AI developments, educational policies, and political trends. Scott Alexander provides brief summaries or comments on each item, often with a mix of factual information and his own perspective. The links range from academic studies to social media posts, covering current events, historical anecdotes, and ongoing debates in various fields. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links and news items from July 2023, covering topics from historical curiosities to current technological and social developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from July 2023. It covers a wide range of topics including historical curiosities, scientific studies, social issues, technological advancements, and current events. The post touches on subjects such as town naming, polyamory research, AI developments, and political decisions. It also includes some humorous and unusual facts, as well as commentary on social and cultural trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023, covering topics from unusual stories and scientific research to AI developments and global trends. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023. The post covers a wide range of topics, including unusual stories, scientific research, political developments, AI progress and concerns, cultural phenomena, and more. Notable items include a real-life 'Cocaine Bear' story, an adversarial collaboration on income and happiness, concerns about AI development, and updates on global trends like birth rates in Africa. The post also includes several short fiction recommendations and humorous AI-related anecdotes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses reactions to his claim that media rarely lies, exploring different interpretations of 'lying' and examining specific cases of alleged media deception. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the reactions to his previous posts about media rarely lying, addressing various criticisms and examples provided by commenters. He explores different interpretations of 'lying', examines specific cases of alleged media deception, and reiterates his position that while media often misleads or reasons poorly, it rarely engages in outright fabrication of facts. Scott also reflects on the nature of conspiracy theories and the importance of understanding how people can genuinely believe false things. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses reader comments on his Columbus Day post, covering historical and cultural controversies around holidays and Columbus. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about Columbus Day, addressing criticisms and controversies raised by readers. He discusses the origins of Christmas and Easter, the historical accuracy of claims about Columbus, the theological significance of Arianism, cultural differences in holiday celebrations, and various perspectives on Columbus Day and its meaning. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting links and news items from July, covering topics from linguistics and AI to politics and economics. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from July. Topics range from linguistic analysis of Reddit insults, to COVID-19 learning loss, to AI art generation, to political and economic news. Scott also comments on recent scientific studies, technological developments, and cultural phenomena. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott providing brief commentary or context for many of the items. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares reader comments on his 'San Fransicko' book review, covering homelessness, crime statistics, and urban policy debates. Longer summary

This post is a collection of highlights from reader comments on Scott Alexander's review of the book 'San Fransicko'. It covers various topics related to homelessness, crime, and urban policy in San Francisco and other cities. The comments provide additional context, personal anecdotes, data analysis, and critiques of both the book and Scott's review. Key themes include the complexity of homelessness, issues with crime statistics, debates over housing policy, and differing perspectives on how to address urban problems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent prediction market changes and defends the usefulness of prediction markets, focusing on Ukraine, Roe v. Wade, and other topics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent changes in prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, the Supreme Court leak on Roe v. Wade, and other topics. He discusses the usefulness of prediction markets, arguing that their main advantage is not accuracy but trust, aggregation, and clarity. He also describes an experiment in market manipulation on Manifold Markets and its implications. The post concludes with a look at some interesting recent predictions on topics like dog cloning, anti-aging, and Chinese politics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 33 diverse links on topics ranging from history and science to technology and politics, offering brief summaries and commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 33 diverse links and brief summaries on various topics, including history, science, technology, politics, and culture. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects, from the history of garlic and magnets to AI-generated art, touching on topics like language models, Nobel laureates by state, ivermectin studies, nuclear weapons, and unusual legal cases. The post showcases interesting facts, recent studies, and thought-provoking ideas across multiple disciplines. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses various perspectives on self-determination, addressing issues like status quo bias, group rights, and the complexities of applying consistent principles to secession cases. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various comments on his previous post about self-determination. He addresses issues such as the preference for status quo, the nature of group rights, the Confederate secession, international norms, historical investment, and the complexities of applying consistent principles to self-determination cases. Scott generally favors a nuanced approach that respects existing borders by default but allows for secession in cases of oppression or when it can be done peacefully, while acknowledging the difficulties in applying universal rules to such complex situations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a curated list of 37 diverse and interesting links, covering topics from historical events to recent scientific studies, with brief summaries and occasional commentary. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 37 links to various articles, studies, and interesting facts across a wide range of topics. Scott Alexander presents these links with brief summaries or comments, covering subjects from historical events and scientific studies to economic theories and technological advancements. The tone is informative and sometimes humorous, with Scott occasionally offering personal opinions or admitting to previous errors. The links span diverse areas including politics, psychology, economics, technology, and culture. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his annual predictions for 2021, covering various topics from politics to personal life, with assigned probabilities for each prediction. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for the upcoming year, covering a wide range of topics including US politics, world events, economics, technology, COVID-19, community matters, personal life, work-related issues, and his blog. The post includes over 100 predictions with percentage probabilities assigned to each. Scott emphasizes that the purpose of these predictions is to calibrate his ability to assess his own knowledge and certainty, rather than to demonstrate expertise on the topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2020 predictions, finding he was generally overconfident, and discusses the implications for his prediction-making process. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2020, comparing them to actual outcomes. He analyzes his performance in different confidence levels, noting that he was consistently overconfident this year, particularly in the 50% and 95% categories. Scott attributes some of his errors to unexpected events like the prolonged COVID lockdown and the NYT situation. He reflects on whether this overconfidence in an unusually eventful year might balance out his slight underconfidence in more normal years. The post concludes with plans for future prediction exercises and a link to his ongoing prediction log. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines Matt Yglesias's public predictions and discusses the implications for evaluating pundits and the future of prediction-based journalism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses Matt Yglesias's recent foray into making public predictions, a practice uncommon among pundits. He compares Yglesias's predictions to those on Metaculus and reflects on the broader implications for journalism and punditry. Scott explores the challenges of fairly evaluating pundits based on predictions, the artificiality of predetermined prediction sets, and the disconnect between prediction accuracy and valuable commentary. He suggests that pundits should make predictions directly related to their claims and proposes using prediction markets as a benchmark for pundit performance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander updates readers on his situation post-blog deletion, discussing job transitions, potential move to Substack, and future plans while maintaining anonymity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an update on his situation two and a half months after deleting his blog due to privacy concerns. He discusses ongoing uncertainty with the New York Times, his decision to transition away from his current job, and plans to start a private practice. Scott also reveals negotiations with Substack to move his blog to their platform, citing increased safety and generous financial incentives. He addresses reader concerns about the platform and outlines Substack's commitments to accommodate his preferences. Scott expresses gratitude for supporter's respect of his anonymity and confirms plans for a future book review contest. Shorter summary