Scott analyzes whether AI forecasters will plateau near human levels or keep improving, arguing that even non-miraculous progress could yield 4-12 percentage point improvements in prediction market accuracy.

Scott's monthly links roundup covering AI progress, the coming flood of philanthropic funding to effective altruism from AI companies, new research on persuasion and forecasting, and various scientific and cultural topics ranging from dementia prevention to Romanian politicians' embarrassing quotes.

Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions.

Scott examines the Metaculus Threat To Democracy Index, which uses crowdsourced forecasting to measure democratic health, discussing its advantages over traditional expert-based indices and its vulnerabilities to manipulation and selection bias.

Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field.

The 2026 ACX/Metaculus prediction contest is now open with a $10,000 prize pool, featuring reader-submitted questions, and Scott announces the winners of the best question submission contest.

Scott asks readers to suggest questions for the 2026 ACX/Metaculus forecasting contest, with prizes for the top ten contributors and AI bots competing this year.

Scott Alexander presents his monthly collection of interesting links and developments across technology, science, culture, and policy, with personal commentary on each item.

Scott provides a detailed analysis of OpenAI's attempt to convert from nonprofit to for-profit status, including the legal challenges, competing offers, and implications for AI development.

Scott shares 50 diverse links covering topics from AI developments to policy changes, with commentary on current events, research findings, and societal trends.

The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest is now open, featuring 36 questions and a particular focus on comparing forecasting bots with human predictors.

Scott examines the likelihood and potential severity of an H5N1 bird flu pandemic, analyzing prediction markets and historical data to estimate a 5% chance of pandemic in the next year with most likely moderate severity.

Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters.

The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications.

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 41 links and news items, covering topics from science and politics to history and technology, with brief commentaries and insights.

Scott Alexander examines prediction markets suggesting that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee could significantly improve the party's chances in the 2024 election.

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future.

Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters.

Scott Alexander analyzes the astronomical costs and resources needed for future AI models, sparked by Sam Altman's reported $7 trillion fundraising goal.

The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting.

The post discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including challenges in market design, updates to forecasting platforms, and current market predictions on various topics.

Scott Alexander defends effective altruism by highlighting its major accomplishments and arguing that its occasional missteps are outweighed by its positive impact on the world.

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including regulatory issues, new platforms, and current market probabilities on various topics.

Scott Alexander analyzes the surprisingly low existential risk estimates from a recent forecasting tournament, particularly for AI risk, and explains why he only partially updates his own higher estimates.

The post explores AI forecasting capabilities, compares prediction market performances, and provides updates on various ongoing predictions in technology and politics.