Scott Alexander argues against significantly updating beliefs based on single dramatic events, advocating for consistent policies based on pre-existing probability distributions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against dramatically updating one's beliefs based on single events, even if they are significant. He contends that a good Bayesian should have distributions for various events and only make small updates when they occur. The post covers several examples, including COVID-19 origin theories, 9/11, mass shootings, sexual harassment scandals, and crises in the effective altruism movement. Scott suggests that while dramatic events can be useful for coordination and activism, they shouldn't significantly alter our understanding of underlying probabilities. He advocates for predicting distributions beforehand and maintaining consistent policies rather than overreacting to individual incidents. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response. Longer summary

This post covers various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdown effectiveness, heterogeneity in infection rates across countries, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations. Scott discusses cell phone data showing limited impact of official lockdowns, explores reasons for varying infection/mortality rates between countries, and highlights the role of speaking/singing in virus transmission. He also examines coronavirus prediction markets, questions the long-term sustainability of lockdowns, and ponders how to quantify the severity of COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes. The post concludes with numerous short updates and links on coronavirus-related topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from scientific studies to historical anecdotes, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and brief summaries on diverse topics. It covers scientific studies, historical anecdotes, political developments, and cultural phenomena. The topics range from new malaria control methods and gender transition studies to the economics of dictatorships and the history of rat-baiting. Scott Alexander provides commentary on some of the links, often with a touch of humor or irony. The post also includes updates on ongoing debates in fields like psychology, nutrition, and climate change. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics including architecture, history, science, politics, and economics, offering brief commentaries and insights on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and brief commentaries on diverse topics. Scott Alexander covers subjects ranging from architecture and history to science, politics, and economics. He discusses the Obama Presidential Library, unusual historical facts, effective altruism, AI policy careers, Bitcoin mining, and scientific studies on parenting and voter ID laws. The post also touches on topics like gender discrimination in tech, nuclear energy startups, and dietary trends. Throughout, Scott provides his characteristic mix of curiosity, skepticism, and humor in discussing these wide-ranging subjects. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines studies on preschool effects, finding mixed and inconsistent evidence for long-term benefits. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews multiple studies on the long-term effects of preschool programs like Head Start. While early studies showed fade-out of test score gains, some found lasting benefits in adult outcomes. However, Scott finds inconsistencies between studies in which subgroups benefit and on which outcomes. He also notes concerns about potential p-hacking and researcher degrees of freedom. Ultimately, Scott concludes that the evidence is mixed - it permits believing preschool has small positive effects, but does not force that conclusion. He estimates 60% odds preschool helps in ways suggested by the studies, 40% odds it's useless. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links on topics ranging from science and politics to economics and culture, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, economic trends, technological advancements, and cultural phenomena. Scott Alexander provides brief commentary on many of the links, often adding context or his own thoughts. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with a focus on sharing intriguing information across diverse fields. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links spanning architecture, science, politics and economics, with commentary on studies about lithium, lead exposure, minimum wage, and free speech. Longer summary

This is a links post where Scott Alexander shares various interesting articles and studies from around the internet. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, science, politics, economics, and social issues. Notable items include a study showing lithium in drinking water may not have significant effects, research about the lead-crime hypothesis, discussions about minimum wage studies in Seattle, and various pieces about free speech and campus politics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how Republicans' failure to achieve smaller government despite holding power contributes to increased polarization and the election of more extreme candidates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a factor contributing to increased polarization among Republicans. He argues that despite Republican control of various levels of government, they have failed to achieve their stated goals of smaller government, fewer regulations, and a reduced welfare state. Scott presents graphs showing growth in government spending, regulations, and welfare spending over time. He suggests this failure is due to secular trends that make everything more expensive, requiring more government spending and regulation. However, Republican voters, unaware of these underlying factors, perceive this as betrayal by their elected officials. This leads to a cycle of electing increasingly extreme candidates who promise to be 'real' Republicans, resulting in hyperpartisanship and refusal to compromise. Scott notes that this is a general issue when people have unrealistic expectations, leading to rejection of existing governments in favor of extremism. Shorter summary

A wide-ranging links post covering recent research, political developments, and interesting findings across various fields, with particular focus on psychology research, political polling, and academic developments. Longer summary

An extensive roundup of links covering various topics in science, politics, and culture. Scott covers recent research on discrimination and peer effects, discusses political developments like Brexit polling and DNC chair elections, highlights interesting academic papers on personality and therapy, and shares various curiosities like tracking a child's first words. The post also covers developments in AI, drug regulation, and campus activism. The tone is analytical and exploratory, often questioning conventional wisdom and examining evidence from multiple angles. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the phenomenon of cost disease, where costs for basic services like education and healthcare have increased dramatically without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of cost disease, where costs for essential services like education, healthcare, and housing have increased significantly over the past few decades without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. He presents data showing how these costs have risen much faster than inflation, while worker salaries in these fields have remained stagnant or even declined. Alexander considers various potential explanations for this phenomenon, including market failures, increased regulation, lawsuit fears, and changing risk tolerance. He argues that this cost disease is a major factor behind many current political and economic debates, and expresses concern about its impact on living standards and economic progress. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes Trump's likely PR strategy as president, predicting a focus on symbolic 'job-saving' victories that will be effective in shaping public perception despite limited real impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander expresses concern about Trump's PR strategy as president, focusing on highly publicized 'victories' in keeping jobs in the US. He argues that these will be largely symbolic, not scalable, and potentially corrupt, but effective in shaping public perception. Scott compares this to Batman's approach of personally fighting crime rather than using his resources for systemic change. He predicts that this strategy will be a central part of Trump's public relations over the next year, despite not significantly impacting overall job numbers. Shorter summary

The post presents challenging hypothetical debate questions for presidential candidates, addressing controversial aspects of their platforms or backgrounds. Longer summary

This post presents a series of hypothetical debate questions for presidential candidates Jill Stein, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, and Donald Trump. For Stein, the question challenges her stance on organic food and pesticides by citing conflicting scientific evidence. Clinton's question addresses her focus on implicit bias in policing, questioning the validity of Implicit Association Tests. Johnson receives a brief, humorous question about a fictional crisis. Trump's question focuses on his campaign CEO Steve Bannon's past involvement with the Biosphere 2 experiment, using it to question Trump's environmental policies. The questions are designed to be provocative and highlight potential contradictions or weaknesses in each candidate's positions or backgrounds. Shorter summary

Scott criticizes a NYT article on sugar industry influence, arguing that such bias is common across food industries and doesn't justify completely reversing nutritional advice. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the New York Times article about sugar industry influence on nutrition research. He argues that while the sugar industry did sponsor biased research, this is common practice across all food industries, including the dairy and meat industries which promote pro-fat research. He suggests that the NYT article overstates the significance of this one instance of sugar industry influence, and that nutrition science has been shaped by an ongoing 'war' between various food industry lobbies. The post cautions against overcorrecting based on this single revelation and emphasizes the complexity of nutrition research and its funding. Shorter summary

Scott shares and comments on various interesting links spanning history, science, economics, and current events, with topics ranging from ancient Greek snake warfare to modern AI development. Longer summary

A collection of diverse links covering various topics, from historical anecdotes about ancient Greek warfare with snakes to modern developments in CRISPR technology and urban policy. Scott presents interesting findings about bullying interventions, Vitamin D supplementation, and mental health in different societies. The post includes commentary on various current events, including Venezuela's economic situation, drug policy debates, and AI development at OpenAI. The post maintains Scott's characteristic mix of scholarly interest and humor throughout. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents satirical, absurdist 'hardball' questions for presidential candidates, blending their backgrounds with outlandish scenarios and philosophical puzzles. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes a series of humorous and satirical 'hardball' questions for presidential candidates in a debate format. He crafts elaborate, absurd scenarios for each candidate based on their background or public statements. For Dr. Carson, he questions the ethics of functional hemispherectomy. For Fiorina, he critiques her praise of the Ottoman Empire. For Bush, he uses statistics to question political dynasties. For Cruz, he explores the paradox of trusting a skilled debater. For Rubio, he spins a conspiracy theory about a magical sword. For Trump, he pokes fun at his branding habits. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the parallels between social justice and anti-social justice groups, arguing that shared experiences of perceived persecution could lead to better understanding and less conflict. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the similarities between social justice and anti-social justice narratives, showing how both groups often feel persecuted and develop similar defensive mechanisms. He argues that this shared experience of perceived threat, even when statistically unlikely, leads to hypervigilance and extreme reactions from both sides. Scott suggests that as both groups now face similar challenges, there may be an opportunity for mutual understanding and the development of protocols to prevent escalation. He advises against dismissing the fears of either side and proposes that recognizing the shared experience of fear could lead to more productive dialogue. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends psychiatry's use of 'chemical imbalance' theory, arguing it was meant to emphasize depression's biological basis rather than claiming a simple serotonin deficiency. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticisms of psychiatry's use of the 'chemical imbalance' theory of depression. He argues that psychiatrists never claimed depression was simply a serotonin deficiency, but rather a complex interaction of brain chemicals. He explains that the term 'chemical imbalance' was used to emphasize depression's biological basis and help people take it seriously, rather than viewing it as a personal failure. Scott provides evidence that serotonin and other neurotransmitters are indeed involved in depression, while acknowledging the full picture is more complicated. He concludes that framing depression in terms of brain chemistry remains useful, even if 'chemical imbalance' is no longer the best terminology. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering history, science, politics and culture, with Scott's commentary on each topic. Longer summary

This is a link roundup post covering various topics. It starts with interesting historical anecdotes like Kipling designing an engineering ritual and the passage of the Habeas Corpus Act. It covers recent news and developments in politics, technology, and science, including Elon Musk's SpaceX ships, cancer therapies, and climate change agreements. The post also discusses several academic papers and studies, addressing topics like citation practices, telomere research, and financial returns to education. Throughout, Scott maintains a skeptical eye toward overblown claims and provides commentary on various social and political developments. Shorter summary

Scott shares and comments on various interesting links covering topics like international relations, medical research, technology, and social issues, mixing academic discussion with curious anecdotes. Longer summary

This is a links post where Scott Alexander shares various interesting links he found, with brief commentary on each. The links cover diverse topics from North Korea's Twitter account to medical research about nutrition, and from academic gender studies to technological development. Scott provides context and sometimes critique for the linked articles, maintaining a mix of serious academic discussion and lighter curiosities. Shorter summary

Scott examines evidence for racial bias in the US criminal justice system, finding some bias in certain areas but not others, and concluding that claims of pervasive racism are overstated. Longer summary

This post analyzes racial bias in the US criminal justice system, reviewing studies on various aspects like police stops, arrests, prosecutions, and sentencing. Scott finds evidence of racial bias in some areas (e.g. capital punishment, sentence length) but little or no bias in others (e.g. arrests for violent crimes, prosecutions). He concludes that while there is some racial bias, claims of pervasive systemic racism are overstated. However, he notes that even without explicit bias, the system can still disproportionately harm black people through indirect means like drug laws or poverty-related factors. Shorter summary

A monthly links post collecting and commenting on various interesting articles and studies from around the web, ranging from scientific research to philosophy to economics. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting articles and studies from around the web. Topics range from scientific research (like glucosamine effects on lifespan) to economics (like Amazon's employee policies) to philosophy (like debates on free will). Scott provides commentary and analysis on each link, often connecting them to previous discussions or adding his own insights. The post covers a wide variety of subjects including medicine, politics, evolution, and technology, with a mix of serious academic content and more lighthearted items. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores biological factors like lead exposure, omega-6 fatty acids, and lithium levels as potential explanations for historical crime rate trends, particularly the possible increase from 1850 to 1980. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses potential biological explanations for historical trends in crime rates. He provisionally accepts that crime may have increased from 1850 to 1980, contrary to his previous belief. He then explores three biological factors that could explain this trend: lead exposure, omega-6 fatty acid consumption, and lithium levels in water. Scott argues that increased lead exposure from industrialization, a dramatic rise in omega-6 fatty acid consumption, and decreased lithium in water due to modern purification methods could all contribute to higher crime rates. He presents evidence linking these factors to aggression and crime, including studies on dietary supplements reducing violence in various populations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and brief commentary on topics ranging from historical anecdotes to recent technological and scientific developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and brief commentary on various topics. It covers historical anecdotes, technological developments, scientific discoveries, social issues, and quirky facts. Scott Alexander discusses topics such as Amazon's drone delivery announcement, promising medical technologies, cancer research, personality disorders, polyamory, and unusual state facts. The post has a lighthearted tone and includes a mix of serious analysis and humorous observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to critiques of his Anti-Reactionary FAQ, addressing focus on recent trends, class gaps, sexual norms, equality, tone, and the concept of the Cathedral. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to critiques of his Anti-Reactionary FAQ, addressing several key points: 1) His focus on 50-year trends rather than comparing to preindustrial society, 2) The gap between upper and lower class outcomes, 3) His arguments about sluttiness and contraception, 4) Issues around equality of opportunity vs results, 5) Tone arguments, and 6) The concept of the Cathedral. He defends some of his original points while acknowledging areas where critics made good arguments. Scott also explores why social indicators worsened from the 60s-80s but have improved since, and discusses how progressive values might be extended to lower classes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques a plan to cure youth unemployment by abolishing minimum wage, arguing that unemployment might be preferable to miserable employment at extremely low wages. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses Federico's plan to cure youth unemployment through policies like abolishing minimum wage and reducing labor regulations. He explores the potential consequences, comparing unemployment to underemployment at very low wages. The post delves into historical communist strategies, technological unemployment, and the challenges of adapting to a changing job market. Scott argues that unemployment might be preferable to miserable employment at extremely low wages, as it could lead to solutions like a Basic Income Guarantee. He concludes that minimum wage and labor regulations might serve to turn miserably-employed people into unemployed welfare recipients, creating a problem society is more likely to address. Shorter summary