Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the current state of prediction markets after their recent explosion in popularity, noting that while volume has grown from millions to billions per month, most of it comes from sports betting rather than the epistemic improvement he'd hoped for. He explores several problems: markets aren't asking the most important questions society needs answered; resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucking") create controversy; and there are concerns about insider trading and manipulation. He proposes solutions including a novel approach to conditional markets and suggests two paths forward: either creating user-generated, subjectively-resolved real-money markets (the "Siskind Cube"), or accepting that prediction markets' main value may be as training data for AI forecasters that could make the markets themselves obsolete by late 2026. Shorter summary

A review of 'Two Arms and a Head', a paraplegic's memoir and argument for physician-assisted suicide, exploring the book's content and the broader debate around Medical Assistance in Dying. Longer summary

This review examines 'Two Arms and a Head', a memoir and suicide note written by Clayton Schwartz, a philosophy student who became paraplegic after a motorcycle accident. The book details the physical and emotional devastation of paraplegia, argues for the legalization of physician-assisted suicide, and criticizes society's approach to disability. The review also explores the current state of Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) and the arguments against it from disability rights organizations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his Elon Musk book review, covering various aspects of Musk's life, work, and personality. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of highlights from comments on Scott Alexander's review of Elon Musk's biography. It covers various aspects of Musk's career and personality, including debates about his intelligence and mental health, discussions about his companies (Tesla, Twitter, SpaceX, Boring Company), his Mars colonization plans, and comparisons to other historical figures. The post also includes critiques of Scott's original review and updates to his views based on the comments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including regulatory issues, new platforms, and current market probabilities on various topics. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in the world of forecasting and prediction markets. It starts with an update on Kalshi's request to the CFTC for permission to create prediction markets about upcoming elections, discussing the public comments received. The post then announces the Manifest 2023 conference on forecasting and prediction markets. It discusses prediction markets related to a potential room temperature superconductor discovery, and how these markets are being used to track the developing story. The post also covers PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, the use of forecasting technology in finance, new forecasting platforms like Fatebook and The Base Rate Times, and several current prediction market probabilities on various topics. It concludes with some short notes on recent developments in the forecasting world. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and brief discussions on topics including AI developments, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. Longer summary

This post is a collection of diverse links and brief discussions on various topics. Scott Alexander covers AI developments, historical events, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. He touches on subjects like AI safety concerns, social media effects on mental health, mask efficacy debates, and potential shifts in 'woke' culture. The post also includes interesting anecdotes, thought experiments, and statistical analyses on topics ranging from medieval Mali to modern dating dynamics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 57 diverse links on topics including politics, science, technology, and culture, providing brief summaries and commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 57 diverse links covering various topics including politics, science, technology, culture, and society. Scott Alexander briefly summarizes each link, often adding his own commentary or thoughts. The links range from scientific studies and political polls to interesting cultural phenomena and technological advancements. Some notable topics include AI development, environmental issues, mental health, and social trends. Shorter summary

A detailed review of Michael Shellenberger's 'San Fransicko', examining its critiques of San Francisco's progressive policies on homelessness, drugs, and crime. Longer summary

This post reviews Michael Shellenberger's book 'San Fransicko', which criticizes progressive policies on homelessness, drug addiction, and crime in San Francisco. The review examines key claims in the book, fact-checking statistics and comparing them to other sources. While finding some of Shellenberger's criticisms valid, the review also points out areas where the book presents a one-sided narrative or misrepresents data. Overall, the reviewer sees the book as a flawed but thought-provoking critique of San Francisco's approach to urban problems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines recent developments in model cities, including political threats to ZEDEs in Honduras, El Salvador's Bitcoin city plan, and the mysterious Praxis project. Longer summary

This blog post discusses recent developments in model cities and charter cities. It covers the political situation in Honduras affecting ZEDEs, El Salvador's plan for a Bitcoin-themed city, the mysterious Praxis project, and other model city news. The post critically examines each project, analyzing their feasibility, potential impact, and the motivations behind them. Scott Alexander provides context, expresses skepticism where appropriate, and offers insights into the challenges and opportunities these projects face. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 34 varied links and pieces of information on topics including science, history, politics, and technology, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 34 diverse links and snippets of information on various topics. It covers subjects ranging from Jeff Bezos' biological father, to studies on Christianity's growth, to climate change discussions, to updates on AI progress. The post also includes commentary on current events like the University of Austin controversy and political polling trends. Many of the links discuss recent scientific studies or historical anecdotes, often with Scott's brief analysis or opinion added. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Crazy Like Us', exploring how Western mental health concepts spread globally and whether raising awareness of mental health problems might make them worse. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Crazy Like Us' by Ethan Watters, which explores how Western mental health concepts are spreading globally. The book presents case studies on anorexia in Hong Kong, depression in Japan, PTSD in Sri Lanka, and schizophrenia in Zanzibar. While Scott finds the book's main thesis only moderately interesting, he's intrigued by a recurring sub-theme: whether raising awareness of mental health problems might actually make them worse. He discusses each case study, offering his own insights and critiques, and concludes by imagining a culture that runs 'Mental Health Unawareness Campaigns'. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and grades his predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, covering topics from Trump's base diversity to the likelihood of a coup. He analyzes his successes and failures, discussing his performance on prediction markets and his overall accuracy compared to average pundits. Scott concludes that he did about average in his predictions, with some notable successes in race-related predictions and on prediction markets, but also made mistakes in overestimating Trump's competence and underestimating his continued support from Republicans. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It covers topics such as estimating the true number of cases, the lack of a clear endgame strategy, the effectiveness of 'flattening the curve', differentiating COVID-19 from flu symptoms, the use of anti-inflammatory drugs, ventilator shortages, disease seasonality, the need for better data, and the Bay Area's response to the crisis. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and observations. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering various topics from Judaism and science to media bias and hate crime hoaxes, with Scott's commentary on each story. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, where he shares interesting articles and studies he's found with brief commentary on each. The links cover a wide range of topics including religious practices, scientific research, healthcare policy, media bias, and social issues. Among the notable items are studies on early school starting age and crime rates, fake hate crime reports after Trump's election, and research on gender differences in medical care. The tone is analytical and sometimes skeptical, with Scott often providing additional context or pointing out methodological issues. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links spanning drug policy, scientific studies, historical oddities, and current events, with Scott's commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting news and studies. It covers a wide range of topics including drug policy changes around suboxone, scientific studies about intelligence and inflammation, historical oddities like Japanese WWII plans, educational research, and current events. The post includes both serious academic content (like studies on behavioral therapy and economic effects of aging) and lighter items (like Pokemon Go at Holocaust museums). Scott provides brief commentary and context for each link, often connecting them to his previous writing or ongoing themes. Shorter summary

A links post collecting interesting stories from around the web, including scientific studies, historical oddities, media criticism, and current events, with Scott's commentary and analysis. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting stories and studies from around the web. It covers topics from historical oddities (like Maoist China's mango obsession), scientific studies (on autism genetics, weight loss, and practice effects), media criticism (of Salon and coverage of Venezuela's collapse), and current events. The post points out interesting patterns and connections between the stories while maintaining a somewhat skeptical tone about extraordinary claims. Scott maintains his characteristic style of finding fascinating angles on seemingly mundane topics while questioning conventional narratives. Shorter summary

A links roundup post covering recent developments in science, medicine, psychology and politics, with particular focus on research replication issues and the 2016 election season. Longer summary

This is a links roundup post covering various recent research findings, news, and developments. It covers topics from toxoplasma research, drug trials, and scientific replication crises to politics and social issues. The post discusses several important developments in psychology including failed replications of established theories like ego depletion, updates on clinical trials and drug research, and various political developments around the 2016 election season. It maintains a light tone while discussing serious academic and scientific topics, including several meta-analyses and study critiques. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that polyamory's low black representation is part of a broader pattern across many subcultures, proposing general explanations and criticizing how this issue is often weaponized. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the claim that polyamory has a problem with underrepresentation of black people. He argues this is part of a broader pattern where many subcultures and interest groups have low black representation, listing numerous examples. He proposes several general factors that likely contribute to this pattern, such as affluence requirements, education levels, and cultural factors. Scott criticizes how underrepresentation is often used disingenuously to attack groups, and expresses frustration that polyamory is being singled out for criticism when the pattern is so widespread. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that depression and suicide rates are not reliable indicators of societal well-being, critiquing simplistic interpretations of mental health statistics in social comparisons. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques articles that use higher depression and suicide rates in Scandinavian countries to argue against their social success. He points out that depression is not synonymous with sadness or social dysfunction, offering several potential explanations for higher rates in Scandinavia unrelated to societal well-being. He then demonstrates how depression and suicide rates don't always correlate with social dysfunction by comparing white and black Americans. Finally, he discusses a study showing that happier places tend to have higher suicide rates, challenging simplistic interpretations of mental health statistics in societal comparisons. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering topics from werewolf-related customs in Argentina to scientific studies, economic trends, and cultural phenomena. Longer summary

This is a links post featuring a diverse collection of interesting stories and studies. It includes quirky historical facts like Argentina's president being godfather to potential werewolves and Byzantine throne customs, scientific studies about gender bias in maritime disasters and climate change controversies, and current events like Russian economic problems and protests against police brutality. The post also covers technological developments in nuclear rockets and desalination, architectural projects, and various social and economic issues. Scott presents these with his characteristic analytical commentary and occasional humor. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander cautions against basing opinions on limited research, using examples from medicine and economics to show how cherry-picking studies can lead to opposing conclusions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander warns against relying on a single study or a limited selection of studies to form opinions on complex issues. He illustrates this with examples from medical research and the minimum wage debate, showing how cherry-picking studies can lead to opposing conclusions. The post emphasizes the importance of considering the full body of evidence, including meta-analyses and expert opinions, while also being aware of potential biases in research and reporting. Scott concludes by advocating for skepticism and thorough investigation when evaluating claims backed by scientific studies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander humorously criticizes ten irritating internet trends he hopes will end in 2014, ranging from overused words to memes and logical fallacies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously criticizes ten internet trends he wants to stop seeing in 2014. These include overused words like 'fanboy' and 'butthurt', inconsistent arguments about global warming, the doge meme, meta-humor, socioeconomic insults, misuse of 'dude' and 'bro', generational arguments, criticism of girls with male friends, and doge memes referencing the Doge of Venice. He satirically dissects each trend, pointing out their logical flaws or overuse, and occasionally proposes solutions or compromises. The post is written in a sarcastic and exasperated tone, reflecting Scott's frustration with these internet phenomena. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering history, science, economics, and culture, with Scott's commentary and observations on each topic. Longer summary

This is a links post featuring various interesting news stories, studies, and websites. The topics range from historical oddities (like King Strang's Michigan island kingdom and the Candid Camera hijacking incident), to scientific studies (about morning sickness and IQ, gene therapy), to economic analysis (about disposable income and healthcare costs), and cultural observations. Scott includes personal commentary and humor throughout, making connections between different topics and offering his perspective on various issues. Shorter summary