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31 posts found
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Jul 21, 2026
acx
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Contra Pritchard On Liberal Happiness

13 min • 1,920 words • 491 comments • 366 likes
Scott defends liberalism against claims it has failed by explaining that happiness scales logarithmically with income, so our 225x wealth increase since medieval times correctly predicts the 3-point happiness gain we've actually seen, and recent declines are due to COVID rather than systemic failure. Longer summary
Scott responds to Cassie Pritchard's argument that liberalism has failed because people aren't happier despite massive increases in wealth. He explains that happiness scales logarithmically with income, not linearly - meaning a 225x increase in GDP since medieval times should only produce about 3 points more happiness on a 1-10 scale, which it has (from ~3/10 to 6-7/10). He shows that recent happiness declines are primarily due to COVID and its aftermath, not liberalism itself, and that while other systems might add 0.5-1 points of happiness, economic growth has delivered 3 points and will continue delivering more over centuries. The post includes analysis of happiness data, comparisons across countries and time periods, and addresses why we don't feel as happy as we should be. Shorter summary
Dec 31, 2025
acx
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Highlights From The Comments On Vibecession

68 min • 10,515 words • 374 comments • 174 likes • podcast (56 min)
Scott reviews comments on his vibecession post, exploring when it started, whether it's really about economics or culture, and notably finding that China experiences similar pessimism despite 5-10x income growth, suggesting vibes can be completely divorced from economic reality. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews and discusses comments on his previous post about the 'vibecession' (the disconnect between good economic indicators and negative public sentiment). The discussion covers when the vibecession actually started, whether economic complaints are proxies for cultural dissatisfaction, housing and inflation concerns, international comparisons (especially China's similar phenomenon despite massive economic growth), and concludes that vibes may be genuinely divorced from economic reality, though housing prices and partisan political feelings play significant roles. Shorter summary
May 22, 2025
acx
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The Evidence That A Million Americans Died Of COVID

14 min • 2,056 words • 1,209 comments • 490 likes • podcast (13 min)
Scott presents evidence that COVID-19 did kill approximately 1.2 million Americans, addressing skeptics by analyzing excess death data and addressing common counterarguments. Longer summary
In response to skeptics questioning the official COVID-19 death toll, Scott Alexander presents evidence supporting the 1.2 million deaths figure. He shows excess mortality data from multiple sources indicating 500,000-700,000 extra deaths in both 2020 and 2021, closely matching reported COVID deaths. He addresses various counter-arguments, including the 'died with vs of COVID' distinction, the role of treatments like ventilators, and the common experience of not personally knowing COVID victims. The post demonstrates how the data supports COVID being the primary cause, and explains why personal experiences might not reflect the true scale of the pandemic. Shorter summary
Jan 14, 2025
acx
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Subscrive Drive '25 + Free Unlocked Posts

7 min • 1,050 words • 106 comments • 103 likes
Scott makes his annual pitch for paid subscriptions to Astral Codex Ten, detailing benefits, showing subscription trends, and listing past subscriber-only content while unlocking two posts as previews. Longer summary
Scott announces his annual subscription drive for Astral Codex Ten, showing subscription trends since the blog's start and listing the subscriber-only posts from the past year. The post explains the benefits of subscribing ($10/month or $2.50 for students/hardship cases), shows how subscriptions peaked early then declined, and lists all twelve subscriber-only posts from the previous year. Scott emphasizes he's financially comfortable but would like to do better than break-even, and unlocks two old subscriber-only posts as a preview. Shorter summary
Jun 28, 2024
acx
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Your Book Review: Dominion

44 min • 6,728 words • 289 comments • 196 likes • podcast (39 min)
In 'Dominion', conservative Christian Matthew Scully makes a comprehensive case for animal welfare, critiquing practices like factory farming and hunting from religious, ethical, and scientific perspectives. Longer summary
Matthew Scully's 'Dominion' is a comprehensive exploration of animal welfare from a conservative Christian perspective. Scully, a former speechwriter for George W. Bush, argues that humans have a moral obligation to show mercy to animals based on religious, ethical, and scientific grounds. He critiques various practices including factory farming, hunting, and animal experimentation, while also engaging with philosophical arguments about animal consciousness. The book combines personal experiences, biblical interpretation, and criticism of both conservative and liberal approaches to animal rights. Shorter summary
Aug 11, 2023
acx
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Your Book Review: The Weirdest People in the World

35 min • 5,420 words • 281 comments • 140 likes • podcast (31 min)
A review of Joe Henrich's 'The Weirdest People in the World', examining its argument that the Western Church's marriage regulations led to WEIRD psychology and modern economic growth. Longer summary
This book review examines Joe Henrich's 'The Weirdest People in the World', which argues that the Western Church's Marriage and Family Program (MFP) dismantled intensive kinship networks, leading to WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic) psychology and modern economic growth. The reviewer discusses the book's scientific approach to European history, its extensive coverage of various topics, and raises questions about the intentionality of historical actors and the future implications of WEIRD psychology. Shorter summary
Jul 20, 2023
acx
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Highlights From The Comments On British Economic Decline

24 min • 3,629 words • 402 comments • 106 likes • podcast (20 min)
Scott explores the recent British economic decline, examining various statistics and theories about its causes and impact. Longer summary
This post discusses the recent economic decline in Britain, analyzing various statistics and theories about its causes. Scott examines GDP data, productivity trends, wage stagnation, and currency value changes, while considering factors like Brexit, real estate market issues, and R&D investment. He presents different perspectives from commenters and experts, highlighting the complexity of the situation and the difficulty in pinpointing exact causes. Shorter summary
May 19, 2023
acx
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Your Book Review: Cities And The Wealth Of Nations/The Question Of Separatism

72 min • 11,134 words • 611 comments • 362 likes • podcast (61 min)
The review explores Jane Jacobs' economic theories from two of her books, focusing on the importance of cities in economic development and challenging conventional wisdom on separatism and large political entities. Longer summary
This review examines two books by Jane Jacobs: 'Cities and the Wealth of Nations' and 'The Question of Separatism'. The reviewer explores Jacobs' economic theories, which center on the importance of cities in economic development. Jacobs argues that cities, not nations, are the fundamental units of economic life, and that the process of import replacement is crucial for economic growth. The review also discusses Jacobs' views on separatism, currency, and the drawbacks of large political entities. The author notes that Jacobs' ideas challenge conventional wisdom across the political spectrum and suggests that her work deserves more attention in economic discourse. Shorter summary
Feb 17, 2023
acx
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Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

31 min • 4,739 words • 225 comments • 156 likes • podcast (27 min)
Scott Alexander reviews the evidence for declining sperm counts, discussing major studies, criticisms, and potential causes, while remaining uncertain about the true extent and reasons for any decline. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines the evidence for declining sperm counts worldwide, discussing the major studies, potential causes, and criticisms of the hypothesis. He explores the methodology of sperm count studies, regional variations, possible explanations like plastics and pesticides, and animal data. While acknowledging the noisy data and potential confounders, he concludes that there's suggestive evidence for a decline but remains uncertain about its magnitude and causes. Shorter summary
Sep 13, 2022
acx
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Unpredictable Reward, Predictable Happiness

23 min • 3,479 words • 234 comments • 155 likes • podcast (26 min)
Scott examines two types of happiness - one affected by predictability and one that persists - through various examples and neuroscientific concepts. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the concept of happiness and reward in relation to neuroscience and prediction error. He discusses how there seem to be two types of happiness: one that is cancelled out by predictability (like the hedonic treadmill) and another that persists even when expected. The post delves into various examples including grief, romantic relationships, and drug tolerance to illustrate this pattern. Scott also touches on AI concepts and how they might relate to human reward systems. He concludes by suggesting that while unpredicted rewards can't be consistently obtained, predicted rewards can still be enjoyable. Shorter summary
Aug 04, 2022
acx
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Slightly Against Underpopulation Worries

22 min • 3,325 words • 906 comments • 197 likes • podcast (26 min)
Scott Alexander argues that underpopulation concerns are overstated and likely irrelevant due to expected technological changes by 2100. Longer summary
Scott Alexander argues against worries about underpopulation, stating that while there may be some demographic shifts and challenges, they are not as dire as some claim. He presents data showing global population will continue to grow until 2100, and even countries with declining populations will still have substantial numbers. He discusses potential issues like age pyramid concerns and innovation slowdowns, but argues these are either manageable or likely to be overshadowed by technological changes. Scott concludes that long-term population projections are largely irrelevant due to the likelihood of transformative technological changes before 2100. Shorter summary
Jun 24, 2022
acx
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Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy

52 min • 8,023 words • 251 comments • 80 likes • podcast (56 min)
A review of Richard Hanania's book arguing that public choice theory, not grand strategy, explains US foreign policy decisions and their often devastating consequences. Longer summary
This book review discusses Richard Hanania's 'Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy', which argues that public choice theory better explains US foreign policy than the unitary actor model. The review covers the book's key arguments, including how special interest groups shape foreign policy, the incoherence of American interventions, and the devastating effects of sanctions. It also explores the book's relevance to current events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and potential implications for nuclear security and effective altruism. Shorter summary
Apr 28, 2022
acx
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Highlights From The Comments On Xi Jinping

27 min • 4,185 words • 155 comments • 74 likes • podcast (28 min)
Scott Alexander compiles and summarizes reader comments on his article about Xi Jinping, covering various aspects of Xi's rule and Chinese politics. Longer summary
This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's article about Xi Jinping, covering topics such as Xi's rise to power, censorship in China, anti-corruption efforts, and centralization of power. Commenters discuss the ideological nature of Communist leadership selection, the complexities of censorship in the internet age, and the effects of Xi's anti-corruption campaign. The post also includes miscellaneous observations on historical parallels, psychological analysis of Xi, and cultural differences in rule-following. Shorter summary
Apr 06, 2022
acx
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Dictator Book Club: Xi Jinping

42 min • 6,466 words • 422 comments • 170 likes • podcast (48 min)
Scott reviews a book on Xi Jinping's rule, exploring China's government structure and Xi's rise to power, concluding that China's system failed to prevent authoritarianism. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Elizabeth Economy's book 'The Third Revolution' about Xi Jinping's rule in China, but finds it doesn't answer his key questions about how Xi came to power. He explores China's government structure, the pre-Xi era, Xi's rise to power, and his actions as leader. Scott concludes that China's oligarchic system failed to prevent authoritarianism, increasing his confidence in democracy, though he's uncertain about attributing China's economic success solely to its government. Shorter summary
Nov 04, 2021
acx
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Dictator Book Club: Orban

34 min • 5,260 words • 734 comments • 160 likes • podcast (39 min)
Scott reviews Viktor Orban's rise to power in Hungary, detailing his political transformation and methods of consolidating control through exploiting constitutional loopholes. Longer summary
This post reviews Viktor Orban's rise to power in Hungary, detailing his transformation from a liberal democrat to a far-right nationalist and his methods of consolidating control. Scott describes Orban's background, his political maneuvering, and how he exploited Hungary's political system to create a near-impregnable position. The post also discusses Orban's anti-immigrant stance during the 2015 refugee crisis and his attempts to boost Hungary's fertility rate. Scott concludes by expressing his dislike for Orban, comparing him unfavorably to other dictators, and warning about the dangers of leaving political loopholes that can be exploited by such figures. Shorter summary
Oct 14, 2021
acx
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Links For October

19 min • 2,850 words • 466 comments • 64 likes • podcast (24 min)
A compilation of 30 diverse links on various topics including science, history, technology, and culture, with brief commentaries by Scott Alexander. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 30 diverse links and brief discussions on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including scientific findings, historical anecdotes, technological developments, cultural phenomena, and current events. The post touches on topics such as oil spills, architecture, IQ research, chronic pain therapy, alcohol consumption, AI safety, and more. Scott Alexander provides short commentaries or explanations for each link, often adding his own insights or connecting the information to broader themes. Shorter summary
Aug 05, 2021
acx
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Adumbrations Of Aducanumab

35 min • 5,328 words • 622 comments • 273 likes • podcast (34 min)
Scott Alexander argues that the FDA is too strict, not too lax, and proposes unbundling FDA approval to allow for more nuanced drug regulation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander criticizes an Atlantic article that argues for stricter FDA standards following the approval of aducanumab, an Alzheimer's drug with questionable efficacy. He contends that the FDA is already too strict, citing examples like the delayed approval of COVID-19 tests and vaccines. Scott argues that the FDA's excessive caution has likely cost many lives. He proposes unbundling FDA approval into separate decisions about legality, insurance coverage, and the FDA's endorsement level. This would allow for more nuanced approvals and potentially reduce costly mistakes while still permitting access to promising treatments. Shorter summary
Jun 28, 2021
acx
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Book Review: How Asia Works

57 min • 8,791 words • 604 comments • 181 likes • podcast (60 min)
The review examines 'How Asia Works' by Joe Studwell, which proposes a three-part model for economic development based on the success of East Asian countries. Longer summary
This book review explores Joe Studwell's 'How Asia Works', which argues that successful Asian economies followed a three-part development model: land reform, state-guided industrialization with export discipline, and financial policies supporting the first two goals. The review compares successful countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China with less successful ones like Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. It discusses the importance of land reform, industrial policy, and financial controls in early development stages, and how these policies differ from standard free-market advice. The review also considers potential counterarguments and the book's implications for current development economics. Shorter summary
Jun 07, 2021
acx
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Instead Of Pledging To Change The World, Pledge To Change Prediction Markets

6 min • 877 words • 201 comments • 115 likes • podcast (8 min)
Scott proposes politicians pledge to change prediction markets' forecasts instead of making direct outcome pledges, using Biden's emissions pledge as an example. Longer summary
Scott Alexander proposes that instead of making pledges about future outcomes, politicians should pledge to change prediction markets' forecasts about those outcomes. He uses Biden's pledge to halve US emissions by 2030 as an example, noting that such long-term pledges are often unfulfilled. Scott suggests that Biden could instead pledge to make Metaculus (or another prediction market) show a 51%+ chance of meeting the emissions target by the end of his term. This approach would require Biden to take concrete actions that convince forecasters of the likelihood of success. The post discusses potential objections to this idea, including the impact of future administrations, attempts to manipulate markets, and whether this might disrupt important political processes. Shorter summary
Apr 16, 2021
acx
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Your Book Review: Progress And Poverty

136 min • 21,047 words • 523 comments • 217 likes • podcast (133 min)
Henry George's 'Progress and Poverty' argues that private land ownership and rent cause persistent poverty, and proposes a land value tax as a solution. Longer summary
This review examines Henry George's book 'Progress and Poverty', which argues that poverty persists alongside economic progress due to private land ownership and rent-seeking. George proposes a land value tax as a solution to eliminate speculation, encourage efficient land use, and fund public goods. The review covers George's theories on wages, capital, rent, and criticisms of prevailing economic ideas like Malthusianism. Shorter summary
Mar 23, 2021
acx
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Book Review: Antifragile

36 min • 5,496 words • 475 comments • 147 likes • podcast (36 min)
Scott Alexander reviews Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile', which explores the concept of benefiting from disorder across various domains and critiques modern attempts to reduce volatility. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Nassim Taleb's book 'Antifragile', which introduces the concept of antifragility - things that gain from disorder and volatility. The book explores this concept through various domains including finance, evolution, exercise, and government policy. Taleb argues that many modern systems and approaches, in trying to reduce volatility, actually increase fragility to large shocks. The review discusses Taleb's critique of academia, his preference for practical knowledge over theory, and his views on the benefits of smaller, decentralized systems. Scott compares Taleb's ideas to other thinkers like James Scott and David Chapman, seeing 'Antifragile' as part of a broader intellectual counterculture questioning conventional approaches to knowledge and governance. Shorter summary
Feb 23, 2021
acx
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Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions

15 min • 2,184 words • 178 comments • 63 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made by himself and two others in April 2020, discussing the results and their implications for forecasting. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made in April 2020 by himself and two other forecasters, Zvi and Bucky. The post compares their predictions on 20 questions related to the pandemic, using a logarithmic scoring system. Scott discusses the results, noting that Zvi performed best, followed by Scott, then Bucky. He reflects on the value of such exercises for identifying biases and areas for improvement in forecasting. The post also includes updates on other prediction markets and forecasting platforms. Shorter summary
Feb 16, 2021
acx
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COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

20 min • 2,989 words • 274 comments • 161 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott Alexander critically evaluates the evidence for Vitamin D's role in COVID-19 prevention and treatment, ultimately leaning towards skepticism while acknowledging the low risk of supplementation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines the evidence for and against Vitamin D's effectiveness in preventing or treating COVID-19. He reviews various studies, including observational data, randomized controlled trials, and Mendelian randomization studies. While some evidence suggests a potential link between Vitamin D levels and COVID-19 outcomes, Scott ultimately leans towards skepticism. He discusses possible confounding factors and methodological issues in some of the positive studies. Despite his skepticism, Scott acknowledges the low risk of Vitamin D supplementation and suggests it may still be beneficial for other reasons. Shorter summary
Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response. Longer summary
This post covers various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdown effectiveness, heterogeneity in infection rates across countries, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations. Scott discusses cell phone data showing limited impact of official lockdowns, explores reasons for varying infection/mortality rates between countries, and highlights the role of speaking/singing in virus transmission. He also examines coronavirus prediction markets, questions the long-term sustainability of lockdowns, and ponders how to quantify the severity of COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes. The post concludes with numerous short updates and links on coronavirus-related topics. Shorter summary
Apr 10, 2020
ssc
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Coronalinks 4/10: Second Derivative

25 min • 3,781 words • 829 comments • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander provides updates on coronavirus trends, discusses various pandemic-related topics, and analyzes different countries' responses and policy proposals. Longer summary
This blog post provides updates on various aspects of the coronavirus pandemic. It discusses the slowing growth rate of cases in many countries, the challenges of mail-in voting in the US, charity efforts, how different countries are responding to the crisis, economic analyses of lockdowns, some positive developments in the US response, and various other coronavirus-related topics. The post maintains a speculative and analytical tone, examining different perspectives on issues like immunity certificates, expert predictions, and controversies around ventilator donations. Shorter summary
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