Scott analyzes reactions to the Hugging Face incident and celebrates a major open letter from AI lab employees calling for coordinated slowdowns, which he sees as significantly improving humanity's chances of surviving AI development. Longer summary

Scott reviews reactions to the Hugging Face hacking incident, focusing on the landmark 'Pacing The Frontier' open letter signed by 1,000+ employees from major AI labs calling for international coordination to slow AI development. The post covers various perspectives on whether individual companies can/should unilaterally slow down, details of the hack itself, and introduces AIFP's framework of five possible plans (D through A/S) for handling superintelligence development, with the open letter significantly increasing the probability of 'Plan A' (coordinated international agreement). Shorter summary

Scott debunks the "all exponentials become sigmoids" argument against AI risk by showing how forecasters consistently predict premature flattening of exponential trends, and argues that without deep understanding of AI dynamics, we should expect current AI progress to continue for roughly as long as it's already been going. Longer summary

Scott argues against the "all exponentials eventually become sigmoids" talking point often used to dismiss AI capability concerns. While technically true that exponential growth must eventually level off, he demonstrates through examples (UN birthrate predictions, solar power deployment forecasts, and AI capability projections) that people consistently misidentify when this flattening will occur, often predicting it prematurely. He explains that while some technological progress does follow sigmoid curves (like airspeed records), predicting when a trend will flatten requires either deep understanding of the underlying process or, in the absence of such understanding, applying Lindy's Law - which suggests a trend will continue approximately as long as it has already lasted. Scott concludes by challenging AI skeptics to either provide detailed models explaining why AI progress will slow down, or explain why they're not using Lindy's Law as their default assumption. Shorter summary

Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025. Longer summary

This is Scott Alexander's monthly collection of links and commentary covering diverse topics. Major themes include AI policy battles (chip sales to China, regulation debates, political campaigns), startup news (Substrate fraud allegations, Tornyol mosquito drones), and scientific updates (COVID origins, Hitler's DNA, lactose intolerance). The post also covers cultural topics like the first millennial saint, Dimes Square commentary, and political polling about ideal Democratic candidates. Scott provides his characteristic mix of straightforward reporting, skeptical analysis, and occasional humor throughout the 53 linked items. Shorter summary

Scott argues AI safety regulation adds only 1-2% to training costs while America has a 10x compute advantage over China, making safety concerns irrelevant to the race; meanwhile, chip exports to China pose a far greater threat that the same critics ignore. Longer summary

Scott argues that AI safety regulation will not significantly harm America's position in the AI race with China. He breaks down the race into three levels (compute, models, and applications), showing America has a massive 10x compute advantage while China's strategy focuses on applications. He demonstrates that proposed AI safety regulations would add only 1-2% to training costs - trivial compared to America's compute lead. The real threats to US advantage are chip export policies and smuggling, where NVIDIA lobbies to sell advanced chips to China, potentially reducing the US advantage from 30x to 1.7x. Scott notes the irony that many people opposing safety regulation on China grounds simultaneously support chip exports, and argues safety regulation might actually help the US by improving security, enabling compute governance, and preventing future overreactions to AI incidents. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shows how he won his 2022 bet about AI image generation capabilities, tracking the progress from early failures to complete success in 2025, using this to argue against AI skeptics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes the resolution of a bet he made in June 2022 about AI image generation capabilities. The bet claimed that by June 2025, AI would master image compositionality and be able to accurately generate specific complex scenes. The post shows the progression of AI image generation from 2022 to 2025, starting with early failures by DALL-E2, through various partial successes with Google Imagen and DALL-E3, and ending with ChatGPT 4o's complete success in May-June 2025. Scott uses this to argue against critics who claimed AI was just a 'stochastic parrot' that couldn't achieve true understanding, though he acknowledges some remaining limitations with very complex prompts. Shorter summary

A collection of 41 interesting links and news items from April 2025, covering AI, politics, culture, and science, with Scott's commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a links roundup post featuring various interesting news, studies, and curiosities from April 2025. The post covers a wide range of topics including AI developments (particularly around OpenAI and truth-seeking AI), political updates (about Trump, immigration policy, and minimum wage effects), cultural items (like etymology of cowboy terms and medieval perception), and scientific findings. Scott maintains a light, sometimes humorous tone while sharing these diverse pieces of information, occasionally adding his own analysis or perspective on controversial topics. Shorter summary

Scott provides a detailed analysis of OpenAI's attempt to convert from nonprofit to for-profit status, including the legal challenges, competing offers, and implications for AI development. Longer summary

The post explains the complex situation around OpenAI's attempt to convert from a nonprofit to a for-profit structure. Scott details the history of OpenAI as a nonprofit, why they want to change, and the various legal and financial challenges they face. The post covers Sam Altman's proposed buyout plan, Elon Musk's competing offer and lawsuit, and the role of state Attorneys General in approving any conversion. The post also explains the implications for AI development and safety, and contrasts OpenAI's structure with Anthropic's different approach to balancing profit with beneficial AI development. Shorter summary

Scott examines a prediction about eternal wealth inequality after the Singularity, analyzing potential counterarguments, prevention strategies, and ways to prepare for such a future. Longer summary

Scott analyzes a prediction that post-Singularity society will have eternal stagnant wealth inequality, with pre-Singularity capital determining wealth forever. He explores three angles: why this prediction might fail (eight counterarguments including AI killing humans, government intervention, and space colonization), how to prevent it (mainly through corporate structures like early OpenAI that limit investor returns), and how to maximize one's chances of being in the wealthy class (mostly concluding that traditional wealth-building advice applies). The discussion includes OpenAI's recent structural changes and their implications for wealth distribution post-Singularity. Shorter summary

The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications. Longer summary

This post discusses the intense atmosphere surrounding Election Day in the United States, comparing it to historical spectacles and highlighting the emotional and psychological impact on the population. It then delves into prediction markets and forecasting, particularly focusing on recent events in Polymarket where a large bet by a single individual caused significant market movements. The post also covers legal developments regarding prediction markets, discusses various election-related predictions, and concludes with a poetic reflection on Election Day. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes Javier Milei's presidency in Argentina, noting mixed results in economic indicators and policies, with some successes in budget cuts and inflation reduction, but increased poverty rates. Longer summary

This post analyzes the performance of Javier Milei, Argentina's libertarian president, focusing on key economic indicators and policies. Scott examines government surplus, inflation, poverty rates, rent control abolition, and Milei's approval ratings. He notes that Milei has achieved a government surplus through significant spending cuts and has reduced monthly inflation, though yearly inflation figures remain high. Poverty has increased under Milei's administration, but there are slight signs of economic improvement. The abolition of rent control has led to increased housing supply and lower prices. Milei's approval ratings, while declining, remain relatively high compared to other world leaders. Scott concludes that while Milei has fulfilled his promise of short-term economic shock, it's too early to judge the long-term success of his policies. Shorter summary

In 'Dominion', conservative Christian Matthew Scully makes a comprehensive case for animal welfare, critiquing practices like factory farming and hunting from religious, ethical, and scientific perspectives. Longer summary

Matthew Scully's 'Dominion' is a comprehensive exploration of animal welfare from a conservative Christian perspective. Scully, a former speechwriter for George W. Bush, argues that humans have a moral obligation to show mercy to animals based on religious, ethical, and scientific grounds. He critiques various practices including factory farming, hunting, and animal experimentation, while also engaging with philosophical arguments about animal consciousness. The book combines personal experiences, biblical interpretation, and criticism of both conservative and liberal approaches to animal rights. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a detailed response to comments and criticisms of his previous post on the COVID-19 origins debate. He addresses arguments against zoonosis, clarifies misunderstandings, and discusses the methodologies used by various parties in the debate. He maintains his position favoring zoonosis over lab leak, while acknowledging the complexity of the issue and the ongoing nature of the debate. Shorter summary

The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting. Longer summary

This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by examining a claim that prediction markets have an 'election problem', showing that real-money markets performed poorly in recent elections. The author then analyzes current polls and prediction markets for the 2024 US presidential election, noting discrepancies between different platforms. The post also explores a forecasting experiment on AI futures, and reviews several other prediction markets on current events. Finally, it includes short links to other forecasting-related news and reflections. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander satirizes Silicon Valley culture through a fictional house party where everyone is obsessed with Sam Altman's firing from OpenAI. Longer summary

Scott Alexander writes a satirical account of a Bay Area house party, where conversations are dominated by speculation about Sam Altman's firing from OpenAI. The narrator encounters various eccentric characters, including startup founders with unusual ideas and people with conspiracy theories about the Altman situation. The story humorously exaggerates Silicon Valley culture, tech industry obsessions, and the tendency for people to form elaborate theories about current events. Shorter summary

The post discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including challenges in market design, updates to forecasting platforms, and current market predictions on various topics. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by discussing the challenges of designing prediction markets for 'why' questions, using the OpenAI situation as an example. It then reviews the progress of Manifold's dating site, Manifold.love, after one month. The post also covers Metaculus' recent platform updates, including new scoring systems and leaderboards. Finally, it analyzes various current prediction markets, including geopolitical events, elections, and the TIME Person of the Year. Shorter summary

A collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering topics from religious practices to AI developments, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering various topics. It includes discussions on religious practices, video games, political trends, scientific studies, AI developments, economic analyses, historical anecdotes, and cultural phenomena. The author provides brief commentary on many of the items, often with a mix of humor and critical analysis. The links range from academic studies and economic reports to quirky historical facts and contemporary cultural observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses comments on his fetish and AI post, defending his comparison of gender debates to addiction and discussing various theories on fetish formation and their implications for AI. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his post about fetishes and AI, addressing criticisms of his introductory paragraph comparing gender debates to opioid addiction, discussing alternative theories of fetish formation, and highlighting interesting comments on personal fetish experiences and implications for AI development. He defends his stance on the addictive nature of gender debates, argues for the use of puberty blockers, and explores various theories on fetish development and their potential relevance to AI alignment and development. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that even seemingly extreme media misinformation usually involves misleading presentation of true facts rather than outright fabrication, examining several reader-provided counterexamples. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticisms of his previous post about media rarely lying by examining several examples readers provided. He argues that even in extreme cases like Alex Jones' Sandy Hook conspiracy theories or claims about election fraud, media sources are typically highlighting true but misleading facts rather than outright fabricating information. Scott contends this matters because it means efforts to censor 'misinformation' will always require subjective judgment calls rather than being a straightforward process of removing falsehoods. He suggests people want to believe bad actors are doing something fundamentally different than good faith reasoning, but in reality most are just reasoning poorly under uncertainty. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications. Longer summary

This post covers various topics related to prediction markets and forecasting, including midterm election predictions, the CFTC's actions against PredictIt, nuclear risk forecasts, Kalshi's application for election markets, and updates on various prediction markets and forecasts. Scott discusses the discrepancies between poll-based and prediction market-based forecasts for the US midterms, the legal challenges to the CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt, and recent nuclear risk assessments by forecasting groups. He also covers Kalshi's efforts to gain approval for election markets and provides updates on several ongoing prediction markets. Shorter summary

The post updates on charter cities, covering the repeal of Honduras' ZEDE law, Disney's Reedy Creek dissolution, and new projects like Afropolitan, while discussing ongoing developments and challenges. Longer summary

This post provides updates on several charter city and model city projects. It discusses the repeal of the ZEDE law in Honduras and its impact on existing projects like Prospera, the dissolution of Disney's Reedy Creek Improvement District in Florida, and the launch of Afropolitan, a new digital nation concept. The post also covers Prospera's ongoing development despite legal challenges, including new resorts, construction projects, and a gene therapy company. Finally, it touches on other model city developments and provides predictions for the future of these projects. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a book on Xi Jinping's rule, exploring China's government structure and Xi's rise to power, concluding that China's system failed to prevent authoritarianism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Elizabeth Economy's book 'The Third Revolution' about Xi Jinping's rule in China, but finds it doesn't answer his key questions about how Xi came to power. He explores China's government structure, the pre-Xi era, Xi's rise to power, and his actions as leader. Scott concludes that China's oligarchic system failed to prevent authoritarianism, increasing his confidence in democracy, though he's uncertain about attributing China's economic success solely to its government. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the concept of 'Pascalian Medicine', weighing the pros and cons of taking multiple unproven but potentially beneficial treatments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'Pascalian Medicine', where one takes multiple unproven but safe treatments based on a small chance they might work. He discusses this in the context of COVID-19 treatments like Vitamin D and ivermectin, and extends it to other conditions. The post examines arguments for and against this approach, including safety concerns, societal impacts, and the risk of being exploited by bad actors. Scott concludes that while this strategy might work for individuals, it's problematic on a societal level, and reconciling inside and outside views on the probability of treatments working remains challenging. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques the FDA's slow approval process for Paxlovid, a promising COVID-19 treatment, despite its proven effectiveness. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the FDA's delay in approving Paxlovid, a highly effective COVID-19 treatment. He criticizes the FDA for taking an estimated six weeks to approve the drug despite stopping trials early due to its effectiveness. The post explores the inconsistency in the FDA's approach, questions potential reasons for the delay, and emphasizes the urgency of approval given the ongoing COVID-19 deaths. Scott also addresses potential criticisms by comparing the situation to ivermectin and acknowledging the risk of unforeseen issues with Paxlovid. Shorter summary

Scott reviews Viktor Orban's rise to power in Hungary, detailing his political transformation and methods of consolidating control through exploiting constitutional loopholes. Longer summary

This post reviews Viktor Orban's rise to power in Hungary, detailing his transformation from a liberal democrat to a far-right nationalist and his methods of consolidating control. Scott describes Orban's background, his political maneuvering, and how he exploited Hungary's political system to create a near-impregnable position. The post also discusses Orban's anti-immigrant stance during the 2015 refugee crisis and his attempts to boost Hungary's fertility rate. Scott concludes by expressing his dislike for Orban, comparing him unfavorably to other dictators, and warning about the dangers of leaving political loopholes that can be exploited by such figures. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews comments on his posts about aducanumab and the FDA, acknowledging some mistakes while defending his overall critique of FDA conservatism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews comments on his recent posts about aducanumab and the FDA. He acknowledges some mistakes in his original post, but defends his overall critique of the FDA as overly conservative. The comments cover various aspects of drug approval, including the aducanumab controversy, surrogate endpoints, the FDA's impact on small biotech companies, and comparisons to other regulatory systems. Scott reflects on how to improve his fact-checking process while still writing passionate pieces. Shorter summary