Scott Alexander methodically rebuts Steven Pinker's arguments against AI risk concerns and documents fifteen years of what he considers misrepresentations and bad-faith arguments from Pinker about the AI safety community.

Scott analyzes reactions to the Hugging Face incident and celebrates a major open letter from AI lab employees calling for coordinated slowdowns, which he sees as significantly improving humanity's chances of surviving AI development.

Scott debunks the "all exponentials become sigmoids" argument against AI risk by showing how forecasters consistently predict premature flattening of exponential trends, and argues that without deep understanding of AI dynamics, we should expect current AI progress to continue for roughly as long as it's already been going.

Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025.

Scott argues AI safety regulation adds only 1-2% to training costs while America has a 10x compute advantage over China, making safety concerns irrelevant to the race; meanwhile, chip exports to China pose a far greater threat that the same critics ignore.

Scott Alexander shows how he won his 2022 bet about AI image generation capabilities, tracking the progress from early failures to complete success in 2025, using this to argue against AI skeptics.

A collection of 41 interesting links and news items from April 2025, covering AI, politics, culture, and science, with Scott's commentary on each.

Scott provides a detailed analysis of OpenAI's attempt to convert from nonprofit to for-profit status, including the legal challenges, competing offers, and implications for AI development.

Scott examines a prediction about eternal wealth inequality after the Singularity, analyzing potential counterarguments, prevention strategies, and ways to prepare for such a future.

The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications.

Scott analyzes Javier Milei's presidency in Argentina, noting mixed results in economic indicators and policies, with some successes in budget cuts and inflation reduction, but increased poverty rates.

In 'Dominion', conservative Christian Matthew Scully makes a comprehensive case for animal welfare, critiquing practices like factory farming and hunting from religious, ethical, and scientific perspectives.

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory.

The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting.

Scott Alexander satirizes Silicon Valley culture through a fictional house party where everyone is obsessed with Sam Altman's firing from OpenAI.

The post discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including challenges in market design, updates to forecasting platforms, and current market predictions on various topics.

A collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering topics from religious practices to AI developments, with brief commentary on many items.

Scott Alexander addresses comments on his fetish and AI post, defending his comparison of gender debates to addiction and discussing various theories on fetish formation and their implications for AI.

Scott Alexander argues that even seemingly extreme media misinformation usually involves misleading presentation of true facts rather than outright fabrication, examining several reader-provided counterexamples.

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.

The post updates on charter cities, covering the repeal of Honduras' ZEDE law, Disney's Reedy Creek dissolution, and new projects like Afropolitan, while discussing ongoing developments and challenges.

Scott reviews a book on Xi Jinping's rule, exploring China's government structure and Xi's rise to power, concluding that China's system failed to prevent authoritarianism.

Scott Alexander examines the concept of 'Pascalian Medicine', weighing the pros and cons of taking multiple unproven but potentially beneficial treatments.

Scott Alexander critiques the FDA's slow approval process for Paxlovid, a promising COVID-19 treatment, despite its proven effectiveness.

Scott reviews Viktor Orban's rise to power in Hungary, detailing his political transformation and methods of consolidating control through exploiting constitutional loopholes.