Scott Alexander reviews comments on his posts about aducanumab and the FDA, acknowledging some mistakes while defending his overall critique of FDA conservatism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews comments on his recent posts about aducanumab and the FDA. He acknowledges some mistakes in his original post, but defends his overall critique of the FDA as overly conservative. The comments cover various aspects of drug approval, including the aducanumab controversy, surrogate endpoints, the FDA's impact on small biotech companies, and comparisons to other regulatory systems. Scott reflects on how to improve his fact-checking process while still writing passionate pieces. Shorter summary

Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective. Longer summary

Scott analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdowns, examining data from Sweden, US states, and Europe. He finds that lockdowns likely reduced transmission rates, with targeted measures like school closures being more effective than stay-at-home orders. The analysis suggests lockdowns saved lives but at significant economic and emotional costs, with the cost-effectiveness varying between countries and time periods. Scott concludes that fast, well-targeted lockdowns may have been optimal, but emphasizes the high uncertainty in these estimates. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines a new theory on antidepressant mechanisms, expressing skepticism while acknowledging its potential significance if proven true. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews a recent study proposing a new theory for how antidepressants work, which suggests they bind directly to TrkB receptors rather than acting through serotonin. He explains the study's findings and their potential implications, but expresses skepticism about the theory. Scott outlines several reasons why he finds the new theory unconvincing, including existing evidence supporting the serotonin hypothesis, issues with the study's claims about drug accumulation, and expert opinions on the difficulties of TrkB research. He concludes by stating he will stick with the conventional theory for now, while remaining open to future developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the COVID-19 pandemic's progress, predicts future waves, and speculates on its long-term impact and transition to an endemic disease. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the current state and future predictions for the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. He outlines the past waves of infections, predicts future waves due to new virus strains, analyzes vaccine efficacy against these strains, and speculates on how the pandemic might eventually transition to an endemic seasonal illness like the flu. He also touches on potential long-term societal changes and makes several specific predictions about future developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the trade-offs between accuracy and liability in medical information, extending the analysis to public health experts and the role of expertise in society. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the challenges of providing accurate medical information online, using his own experience with a psychiatry database and comparing it to WebMD. He argues that larger, more legitimate sources like WebMD and government agencies often provide less useful information due to liability concerns and political pressures. The post then extends this analysis to public health experts like Dr. Fauci, suggesting that while they may not always provide the best advice, they serve an important role as 'legibly mediocre' sources of information in a complex system. Scott concludes that while the current system of expertise is flawed, it's better than alternatives and deserves some appreciation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response. Longer summary

This post covers various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdown effectiveness, heterogeneity in infection rates across countries, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations. Scott discusses cell phone data showing limited impact of official lockdowns, explores reasons for varying infection/mortality rates between countries, and highlights the role of speaking/singing in virus transmission. He also examines coronavirus prediction markets, questions the long-term sustainability of lockdowns, and ponders how to quantify the severity of COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes. The post concludes with numerous short updates and links on coronavirus-related topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It covers topics such as estimating the true number of cases, the lack of a clear endgame strategy, the effectiveness of 'flattening the curve', differentiating COVID-19 from flu symptoms, the use of anti-inflammatory drugs, ventilator shortages, disease seasonality, the need for better data, and the Bay Area's response to the crisis. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a curated list of interesting links and news items on topics ranging from politics and science to technology and culture. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. It covers a wide range of topics including politics, science, technology, economics, and culture. Some highlights include: a study on the effects of gender-balanced corporate boards in California, a debate about YouTube's algorithm and radicalization, updates on the coronavirus outbreak, and interesting scientific findings on topics like obesity and climate models. The post also includes humorous items and writing prompts. Shorter summary

The post argues that automation and AI are unlikely to cause a sustained economic crisis, as new jobs will be created to replace those automated, though the benefits may primarily go to capital owners. Longer summary

This post discusses the potential economic impact of automation and AI, addressing concerns about job displacement and economic crisis. The authors argue that while automation will continue to change the job market, it is unlikely to lead to a sustained economic crisis in the foreseeable future. They examine historical trends in employment, current technological capabilities, and economic theories to support their argument. The post concludes that new jobs will continue to be created as old ones are automated, maintaining overall employment levels, though the benefits of automation may flow primarily to capital owners. Shorter summary

This post examines the pros and cons of using gene editing technologies in humans, discussing scientific, medical, and ethical considerations. Longer summary

This post discusses the potential uses, risks, and ethical implications of gene editing technologies in humans. It covers the science behind CRISPR, its safety and efficiency, the relationship between genetics and disease, and potential applications in treating conditions like cancer and HIV. The authors explore complex questions around genetic enhancement and 'designer babies', highlighting both the promise and perils of this technology. They conclude that while gene editing holds great potential, especially for certain genetic diseases, its use must be carefully regulated and ethically considered. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from scientific studies to historical anecdotes, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and brief summaries on diverse topics. It covers scientific studies, historical anecdotes, political developments, and cultural phenomena. The topics range from new malaria control methods and gender transition studies to the economics of dictatorships and the history of rat-baiting. Scott Alexander provides commentary on some of the links, often with a touch of humor or irony. The post also includes updates on ongoing debates in fields like psychology, nutrition, and climate change. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the history of increasing competitiveness in college admissions, analyzing causes and questioning whether the focus on elite college admission is justified. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the history of college admissions and the increasing competitiveness in recent years. He traces the evolution from a time when top colleges admitted almost anyone qualified to the current highly competitive landscape. The post examines various factors contributing to this change, including increased applications per student, changing demographics, and shifts in evaluation criteria. Scott also investigates whether the intense focus on college admissions is justified, given research suggesting that attending a selective college may not significantly impact most students' long-term outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott reviews Kuhn's 'Structure of Scientific Revolutions', finding its thesis on paradigm shifts in science intriguing but frustratingly vague, especially beyond physics. Longer summary

Scott reviews Thomas Kuhn's 'The Structure of Scientific Revolutions', which argues that science progresses through paradigm shifts rather than simple accumulation of facts. Kuhn posits that scientific paradigms are comprehensive worldviews that guide research and interpretation of data. When anomalies accumulate, a new paradigm may emerge to replace the old one. Scott finds Kuhn's thesis intriguing but frustratingly vague in parts, especially in applying it beyond physics. He draws connections between Kuhn's ideas and predictive coding in neuroscience, suggesting both describe how pre-existing mental structures shape perception and understanding. Overall, Scott sees value in Kuhn's perspective but wishes for more clarity and examples from other scientific fields. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the fate of 1990s environmental concerns, finding a mix of solved problems, exaggerated issues, and ongoing challenges that have faded from public attention. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the environmental concerns of the 1990s, examining what happened to issues like air and water pollution, acid rain, rainforest deforestation, endangered species, landfill space, peak resource, and whale conservation. He finds that some problems were solved, some were exaggerated, and others continue but receive less attention. The post explores why certain environmental issues fade from public consciousness, considering factors like problem-solving, alarmism, shifting focus to climate change, and changes in societal attitudes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links covering AI, economics, politics, science, and culture, offering brief comments and insights on each topic. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various news articles, studies, and interesting tidbits. It covers a wide range of topics including AI, economics, politics, science, and culture. Some notable items include: a new AI that draws pictures based on captions, a study on the effectiveness of ballpoint pens for emergency tracheotomies, the cancellation of a basic income experiment, weaknesses in Xi Jinping's rule, and a study showing Hitler's speeches didn't measurably increase Nazi support. The post also touches on topics like climate change, antimalarial bed nets, polygenic scores for disease risk, and a replication of a famous psychology study on smiling and happiness. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott providing brief comments or insights on many of the links. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander attempts to understand and explain Karl Friston's complex 'free energy' principle in neuroscience, exploring its various interpretations and potential implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores Karl Friston's work on 'free energy', a complex concept in neuroscience that has been described as a unified brain theory. The post delves into various interpretations of free energy, from its mathematical origins in Bayesian equations to its application in explaining perception, cognition, homeostasis, and action. Scott struggles to fully grasp the concept, acknowledging its complexity and the widespread difficulty in understanding Friston's work. He presents different perspectives on free energy, including its role in uncertainty reduction, its connection to predictive processing, and its potential to explain biological systems and the origin of life. The post concludes with a tentative synthesis of these ideas and raises questions about the implications of the free energy principle for machine ethics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares interesting links on diverse topics including Russian life comparisons, AI developments, scientific discoveries, cultural evolution, and various research findings, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting articles and news items. The topics range from historical curiosities like forest rings and 18th century sci-fi to modern developments in AI and genetics. There are several items about scientific research, including studies on autism, addiction, and serotonin. The post also covers cultural and social issues like the 'Mizzou Effect' at colleges and racial segregation patterns. Each item is briefly summarized with Scott's characteristic mix of intellectual curiosity and light commentary. Shorter summary

Scott shares reader responses to his IRB experience, ranging from similar frustrations to defenses of the system, and discusses concerns about increasing bureaucracy in research. Longer summary

This post highlights responses to Scott's previous article about his frustrating experience with the Institutional Review Board (IRB) process. Many readers shared similar stories of bureaucratic hurdles and absurd requirements they faced when trying to conduct research. Some commenters offered advice on how to navigate the system more effectively or suggested that experiences may vary depending on the institution. Others defended the importance of IRBs in preventing unethical research, citing historical examples like the Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment. Scott acknowledges some fair criticisms but maintains that IRBs have become overly burdensome for low-risk studies. He expresses concern about new NIH policies that may further increase bureaucratic requirements for basic science research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines a failed replication of a study claiming analytical thinking promotes religious disbelief, and discusses the broader implications for understanding the relationship between thinking styles and religious belief. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews a study by Gervais and Norenzayan (G&N) that claimed analytical thinking promotes religious disbelief, and its subsequent failed replication attempts. The original study consisted of five experiments, including priming participants with images or word tasks before assessing their religious beliefs. The Reproducibility Project's replication of two of these experiments failed to find the same effects. Scott discusses the implications of this failure, noting that even studies that seem well-designed can fail to replicate. He then examines a meta-analysis by Pennycook et al. that found a small but consistent correlation between analytical thinking and irreligiosity across multiple studies. Scott concludes by summarizing key takeaways about the relationship between analytical thinking, IQ, and religious belief, as well as lessons about the replicability of psychological studies. Shorter summary

A link roundup post covering various topics from video games to scientific studies, with Scott's commentary on each news item or piece of research. Longer summary

A collection of interesting links covering diverse topics including scientific studies (Tylenol and ADHD, obesity genetics), current events (self-driving Uber cars, DoJ ending private prisons), cultural observations, and historical curiosities. Scott provides brief commentary on each link, often critiquing methodology of studies or pointing out interesting implications. The post has a lighter tone when discussing oddities like torpedo juice or Desert Bus, but becomes more analytical when examining research claims or policy changes. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering science, politics, and culture, with topics ranging from desalinization and medical studies to quirky historical facts and political developments. Longer summary

This is a link roundup post covering various topics from scientific studies to political events. It includes interesting findings about desalinization in Israel, studies about alcohol consumption and poverty, updates on linguistics paper reviews showing gender bias, and various cultural observations. The post also covers some unusual facts about military dogs, Mennonite communities, and state traditions. It maintains a light tone while discussing serious topics, often including Scott's brief commentary or humorous observations alongside the links. Shorter summary

Scott shares various interesting links and findings, including studies on education and IQ, brain simulation challenges, obesity surgery outcomes, and various cultural curiosities. Longer summary

This is a links post where Scott Alexander shares various interesting findings, research, and curiosities. He discusses several scientific studies, including research on education's effect on IQ from Sweden, brain simulation challenges, and obesity surgery outcomes. The post also includes various cultural and historical curiosities, like England's high tornado rate, Lenin being called a mushroom, and the Great Pyramid's eight sides. Scott provides commentary and analysis on many of the links, particularly regarding scientific research and methodology. The format is casual but informative, with Scott adding personal insights and occasional humor throughout. Shorter summary

A links post collecting interesting stories from around the web, including scientific studies, historical oddities, media criticism, and current events, with Scott's commentary and analysis. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting stories and studies from around the web. It covers topics from historical oddities (like Maoist China's mango obsession), scientific studies (on autism genetics, weight loss, and practice effects), media criticism (of Salon and coverage of Venezuela's collapse), and current events. The post points out interesting patterns and connections between the stories while maintaining a somewhat skeptical tone about extraordinary claims. Scott maintains his characteristic style of finding fascinating angles on seemingly mundane topics while questioning conventional narratives. Shorter summary

A Links post presenting various interesting news and studies from different fields, with brief commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a Links post that presents a collection of interesting news, studies, and articles from various fields. The post covers topics ranging from scientific research and academic policy to economics and social issues. It includes studies on ADHD diagnosis, income inequality, neighborhood effects, and discussion of various cultural and political events. The tone is casual and informative, with Scott providing brief commentary and connecting different ideas throughout. Shorter summary

A links roundup post covering recent developments in science, medicine, psychology and politics, with particular focus on research replication issues and the 2016 election season. Longer summary

This is a links roundup post covering various recent research findings, news, and developments. It covers topics from toxoplasma research, drug trials, and scientific replication crises to politics and social issues. The post discusses several important developments in psychology including failed replications of established theories like ego depletion, updates on clinical trials and drug research, and various political developments around the 2016 election season. It maintains a light tone while discussing serious academic and scientific topics, including several meta-analyses and study critiques. Shorter summary