Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange. Longer summary

Scott analyzes several recent prediction market stories. First, he examines how Anthropic's stock price barely changed after the Pentagon declared it a 'supply chain risk', because markets predict the company will win on appeal and the designation only affects a small portion of their business while generating positive publicity. He then discusses the 2026 midterms, where Democrats are favored to win but various Republican voting law changes could create chaos, though markets suggest turnout won't be significantly affected. The post includes a statistical analysis of groundhog weather predictions, showing Staten Island Chuck's high accuracy is likely due to consistently predicting spring. He covers prediction markets about the Iran conflict, including regime change odds and potential casualties. Finally, he announces MNX, a new cryptocurrency-based futures exchange focused on AI-related hedging markets, and shares miscellaneous prediction market news including Substack's partnership with Polymarket. Shorter summary

Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the current state of prediction markets after their recent explosion in popularity, noting that while volume has grown from millions to billions per month, most of it comes from sports betting rather than the epistemic improvement he'd hoped for. He explores several problems: markets aren't asking the most important questions society needs answered; resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucking") create controversy; and there are concerns about insider trading and manipulation. He proposes solutions including a novel approach to conditional markets and suggests two paths forward: either creating user-generated, subjectively-resolved real-money markets (the "Siskind Cube"), or accepting that prediction markets' main value may be as training data for AI forecasters that could make the markets themselves obsolete by late 2026. Shorter summary

Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025. Longer summary

This is Scott Alexander's monthly collection of links and commentary covering diverse topics. Major themes include AI policy battles (chip sales to China, regulation debates, political campaigns), startup news (Substrate fraud allegations, Tornyol mosquito drones), and scientific updates (COVID origins, Hitler's DNA, lactose intolerance). The post also covers cultural topics like the first millennial saint, Dimes Square commentary, and political polling about ideal Democratic candidates. Scott provides his characteristic mix of straightforward reporting, skeptical analysis, and occasional humor throughout the 53 linked items. Shorter summary

A book review exploring the history of Project Xanadu, Ted Nelson's pioneering but ultimately unsuccessful vision for a hypertext-based internet system that preceded and differed significantly from the World Wide Web. Longer summary

This book review traces the fascinating history of Project Xanadu, Ted Nelson's ambitious vision for a hypertext-based internet system that predated and rivaled the World Wide Web. Starting with Vannevar Bush's 1945 concept of the memex, through Doug Engelbart's groundbreaking demos, to Nelson's decades-long quest to build Xanadu, the post explores how this alternative vision for the internet - featuring bidirectional links, embedded content, and built-in attribution - ultimately failed to materialize despite its early start and innovative ideas. The review ends by questioning whether the simpler Web we got instead, built by Tim Berners-Lee, might have cost us something valuable in terms of how we connect and share information online. Shorter summary

A compilation of 50 diverse news items and links from September 2024, covering topics from politics and economics to science and technology. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of 50 diverse links and news items from September 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including politics, science, technology, economics, and social issues. Some notable items include discussions on kidney donation compensation, personality genetics, fertility rates in Israel, drug decriminalization in Oregon, AI regulation in California, and various political and economic analyses. The post also includes commentary on recent studies, books, and social phenomena. Shorter summary

A wide-ranging collection of 40 news items and interesting facts, covering AI, politics, science, economics, and culture, with the author's commentary. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 40 diverse links and news items covering topics such as AI developments, politics, science, technology, economics, and culture. It includes updates on OpenAI and Google's AI projects, discussions on religious phenomena, analyses of social and economic trends, and various interesting facts and anecdotes. The author provides commentary and context for many of the items, often with a mix of humor and critical analysis. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the winners of ACX Grants 2024, covering a diverse range of projects from medical research to policy advocacy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants 2024, detailing the winners and their projects. The grants cover a wide range of areas including medical research, technology development, policy advocacy, and scientific studies. Scott explains the selection process, acknowledges contributors, and mentions future plans for the grants program. He also discusses how Manifund will handle payments and create an impact market for unfunded projects. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links and brief comments on recent developments in science, technology, politics, and society, ranging from climate change to AI developments to social experiments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links and brief comments on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including climate change, AI developments, social experiments, scientific studies, political issues, and technological innovations. The author presents these topics with a mix of factual reporting, personal commentary, and sometimes humorous observations. The post touches on subjects like geoengineering, crypto for sex workers, AI art, fertility rates, dating apps, charity effectiveness, and many others. The author often provides links to original sources and sometimes offers his own analysis or opinion on the matters discussed. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links and news items from July 2023, covering topics from historical curiosities to current technological and social developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from July 2023. It covers a wide range of topics including historical curiosities, scientific studies, social issues, technological advancements, and current events. The post touches on subjects such as town naming, polyamory research, AI developments, and political decisions. It also includes some humorous and unusual facts, as well as commentary on social and cultural trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues for a nuanced view of cryptocurrency, highlighting its legitimate uses and potential benefits despite common criticisms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explains why he is 'less than infinitely hostile' to cryptocurrency, despite widespread criticism. He argues that crypto has clear use cases in countries with weak banking systems, that major crypto projects are rarely outright scams, and that crypto provides valuable insurance against authoritarianism by enabling financial transactions when governments try to restrict them. Scott also contends that while the crypto financial system may be inferior to traditional finance in many ways, its decentralized nature gives it unique advantages. He concludes by suggesting that crypto's potential utility shouldn't be dismissed, even if one doesn't personally need it. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 40 diverse and intriguing links and news items from September 2022, covering topics from AI advancements to political analysis and cultural observations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of 40 interesting links and news items from September 2022. The topics range from AI developments and their implications, to political analysis, scientific discoveries, and cultural observations. He covers subjects like image generation AI, conspiracy theories, the political situation in South Africa, nuclear power in California, and language models' capabilities. The post also includes personal anecdotes, book reviews, and interesting statistical findings. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 57 diverse links on topics including politics, science, technology, and culture, providing brief summaries and commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 57 diverse links covering various topics including politics, science, technology, culture, and society. Scott Alexander briefly summarizes each link, often adding his own commentary or thoughts. The links range from scientific studies and political polls to interesting cultural phenomena and technological advancements. Some notable topics include AI development, environmental issues, mental health, and social trends. Shorter summary

The post updates on charter cities, covering the repeal of Honduras' ZEDE law, Disney's Reedy Creek dissolution, and new projects like Afropolitan, while discussing ongoing developments and challenges. Longer summary

This post provides updates on several charter city and model city projects. It discusses the repeal of the ZEDE law in Honduras and its impact on existing projects like Prospera, the dissolution of Disney's Reedy Creek Improvement District in Florida, and the launch of Afropolitan, a new digital nation concept. The post also covers Prospera's ongoing development despite legal challenges, including new resorts, construction projects, and a gene therapy company. Finally, it touches on other model city developments and provides predictions for the future of these projects. Shorter summary

Scott examines new techniques in forecasting and prediction markets, including reciprocal scoring and iterated markets, while highlighting the accuracy of prediction markets compared to traditional media. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in forecasting and prediction markets. He covers a new paper on reciprocal scoring for long-term and counterfactual predictions, the performance of prediction markets vs. traditional media in calling election results, a proposal for iterated prediction markets to handle long-term forecasts, and updates on current prediction market probabilities for various events. He also notes the accuracy of past Metaculus predictions about Starlink availability and shares some short items on futurism and expert forecasting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a curated list of 37 diverse and interesting links, covering topics from historical events to recent scientific studies, with brief summaries and occasional commentary. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 37 links to various articles, studies, and interesting facts across a wide range of topics. Scott Alexander presents these links with brief summaries or comments, covering subjects from historical events and scientific studies to economic theories and technological advancements. The tone is informative and sometimes humorous, with Scott occasionally offering personal opinions or admitting to previous errors. The links span diverse areas including politics, psychology, economics, technology, and culture. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a monthly collection of 42 diverse links covering topics from science, politics, culture, and technology, highlighting interesting findings and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 42 diverse links and topics, ranging from scientific studies to political news and cultural observations. Scott Alexander curates these links monthly, covering a wide array of subjects including zoology, sociology, economics, psychology, technology, and more. The links often highlight interesting or surprising findings, such as studies on cult demographics, obesity research controversies, and the effects of testosterone on belief in minority positions. Scott also includes humorous content, political commentary, and discussions on current events and social trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander updates readers on his situation post-blog deletion, discussing job transitions, potential move to Substack, and future plans while maintaining anonymity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an update on his situation two and a half months after deleting his blog due to privacy concerns. He discusses ongoing uncertainty with the New York Times, his decision to transition away from his current job, and plans to start a private practice. Scott also reveals negotiations with Substack to move his blog to their platform, citing increased safety and generous financial incentives. He addresses reader concerns about the platform and outlines Substack's commitments to accommodate his preferences. Scott expresses gratitude for supporter's respect of his anonymity and confirms plans for a future book review contest. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates on coronavirus trends, discusses various pandemic-related topics, and analyzes different countries' responses and policy proposals. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates on various aspects of the coronavirus pandemic. It discusses the slowing growth rate of cases in many countries, the challenges of mail-in voting in the US, charity efforts, how different countries are responding to the crisis, economic analyses of lockdowns, some positive developments in the US response, and various other coronavirus-related topics. The post maintains a speculative and analytical tone, examining different perspectives on issues like immunity certificates, expert predictions, and controversies around ventilator donations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including strategies, mysteries, controversies, and global impacts. Longer summary

This blog post discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the 'hammer and dance' strategy, smoking cessation, mysteries surrounding Japan's low case numbers, takeout food safety, ventilator numbers, the UK's policy reversal, density and infection rates, hydroxychloroquine controversy, concerns about developing countries, donation opportunities, cost-benefit analysis of lockdowns, US stimulus bill negotiations, and media coverage of the pandemic across the political spectrum. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and developments. Shorter summary

TracingWoodgrains and Michael Pershan analyze the effectiveness of ability grouping, acceleration, and personalization software in serving advanced students in the education system. Longer summary

This post is an entry to the Adversarial Collaboration Contest by TracingWoodgrains and Michael Pershan, discussing whether the education system adequately serves advanced students. It examines three main approaches: ability grouping, acceleration, and personalization software. The authors review research on each approach, discuss their pros and cons, and explore the tensions between different educational goals. They conclude with practical advice for parents, educators, and educational reformers. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a wide-ranging collection of links covering science, technology, politics, economics, and culture, with brief commentary on each item. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares a collection of interesting links and news items on various topics. He discusses punding (a side effect of dopamine drugs), net neutrality in Montana, Tibetan monks' fear of death, Trump's solar panel tariffs, space exploration news, a potential tinnitus treatment, the US metric system history, NSA's core values change, a Burning Man activist's story, blockchain projects, Aristotle's puns, UK politician Jacob Rees-Mogg, arguments against open borders, new education programs, SAT score correlations, solar system geography, Amazon's entry into healthcare, pain tolerance and friendships, legal terminology origins, campus free speech issues, Twitter bots, nutrition studies, IQ test incentives, dating apps for verified Twitter users, Hitler's drug use, mindfulness research, disability insurance effects, asteroid naming conventions, and various other topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Luna, a blockchain-based dating platform, discussing its novel features and expressing cautious optimism about its potential, while questioning the necessity of blockchain for its functions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Luna, a blockchain-based dating platform. He discusses its novel features like using cryptocurrency to allocate user attention, incentive alignment for successful matches, and machine learning for better matchmaking. While intrigued by some aspects, he questions the necessity of blockchain technology for the platform. The post explores the potential benefits and pitfalls of such a system, comparing it to existing dating sites and discussing its economic model. Scott expresses hope that Luna isn't a scam, seeing it as potentially representing the best of Silicon Valley innovation if genuine. Shorter summary

A collection of links covering topics from drug regulation and genetic testing to tax reform and AI developments, with Scott's commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a wide-ranging links post covering various news items and studies. Topics include FDA regulations and drug pricing, genetic testing advances, Russian Facebook ads from the 2016 election, studies on education and intelligence, tax reform effects on graduate students, and various scientific developments. The post moves quickly between topics, providing brief commentary and often linking to additional sources. Several items focus on medical and healthcare issues, from insulin prices to studies on pain medication effectiveness. The post maintains Scott's characteristic mix of intellectual curiosity and light humor throughout. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering topics from ancient Roman demographics to modern AI developments, criminal justice issues, and cultural oddities. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting news and articles. Topics include ancient Roman life expectancy data, Chinese censorship expanding to group chats, cruise ship pollution, AI developments like AlphaGo Zero, criminal justice issues around drug rehab work camps and police body cameras, and various other scientific, technological and cultural items. The post maintains a light tone while covering both serious topics like Puerto Rico's ongoing crisis and quirky ones like Viking reenactors and Halloween costumes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that media criticism of Silicon Valley based on products like Juicero ignores the significant innovative and altruistic work being done in the tech hub. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the media's portrayal of Silicon Valley as being solely focused on frivolous products like the Juicero juicer. He argues that while such products exist, they are not representative of the majority of Silicon Valley's work. He provides examples of important and innovative projects in areas like medical research, renewable energy, and space exploration. Alexander analyzes Y Combinator and Andreessen Horowitz portfolios to show that most startups are focused on serious business solutions or altruistic goals. He theorizes that people's perception of Silicon Valley is influenced by their own interests and experiences, leading to different views of what the tech hub 'does'. He concludes by arguing that Silicon Valley's mistakes are less harmful than those of other influential sectors, and that its capacity for innovation should be appreciated and protected. Shorter summary