Scott reviews updates from two cohorts of ACX Grants recipients (from 2021 and 2024), analyzing their progress and sharing lessons learned about what makes grants successful.

Scott Alexander responds to Tyler Cowen about USAID funding, correcting his own previous claims about overhead costs while maintaining that Cowen's criticism of USAID was misleading and potentially harmful.

Scott introduces a new AI forecasting project predicting rapid AI development and potential superintelligence by 2028, led by Daniel Kokotajlo, whose previous 2021 predictions proved remarkably accurate.

Scott examines the concept of 'priesthoods' (like medicine and academia) as epistemic communities that maintain high standards through isolation from the public, showing both their strengths and their vulnerability to ideological capture.

Scott shares 55 interesting links covering topics from AI poetry to religious movements, including updates on various projects, unusual historical events, and current developments in technology, politics, and society.

Scott Alexander reviews Rodney Stark's 'The Rise of Christianity', which examines factors contributing to Christianity's growth from a small cult to a dominant religion in the Roman Empire.

The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications.

Scott Alexander reports on the Progress Studies Conference, discussing advances in energy, AI, housing policy, and other fields, with an overall optimistic tone about recent developments and potential for future progress.

A wide-ranging collection of 40 news items and interesting facts, covering AI, politics, science, economics, and culture, with the author's commentary.

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory.

Scott Alexander defends using probabilities for hard-to-model events, arguing they aid clear communication and decision-making even in uncertain domains.

Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters.

Scott Alexander explores recent advancements in AI-powered prediction markets, including bot-based systems, AI forecasters, and their potential impact on future predictions and decision-making.

The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting.

Scott Alexander proposes that political hyperpartisanship might be a form of trauma, comparing PTSD symptoms to behaviors observed in political extremists.

A collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering topics from religious practices to AI developments, with brief commentary on many items.

Scott Alexander defends effective altruism by highlighting its major accomplishments and arguing that its occasional missteps are outweighed by its positive impact on the world.

Scott Alexander recounts his experience donating a kidney, from initial motivation to post-surgery recovery, while discussing the broader context of organ donation.

A diverse collection of links and brief comments on recent developments in science, technology, politics, and society, ranging from climate change to AI developments to social experiments.

Scott reviews Ashlee Vance's 2015 Elon Musk biography, analyzing Musk's personality, work ethic, and business strategies to understand his successes and controversies.

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 38 links and news items, covering topics from book reviews and religious history to AI developments and political trends, with brief summaries and comments on each.

Scott Alexander reviews a book critiquing Institutional Review Boards, arguing they now harm medical research more than they help.

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and brief discussions on topics including AI developments, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena.

Scott Alexander discusses reader comments on his 'Geography of Madness' review, revising views on culture-bound syndromes and exploring various mental health topics.

Scott reviews a book on culture-bound syndromes, expanding the discussion to how all mental illnesses are influenced by culture to varying degrees.