Want to dive into Scott Alexander's work and his thousands of blog posts? This fan website lets you sort and do semantic search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

See also Top Posts and All Tags.

Minutes:
Pick a custom range (minutes). Leave a field empty for no limit.
–
Blog:
Year:
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Tags:
Filter by tag...
Exclude tag...
5252 tags
Links:
Filter by linked site (twitter, substack…)
159 posts found
Compact Mode
Save Reads
Jun 18, 2025
acx
Read on

ACX Grants 1-3 Year Updates

83 min • 12,838 words • 169 comments • 124 likes • podcast (75 min)
Scott reviews updates from two cohorts of ACX Grants recipients (from 2021 and 2024), analyzing their progress and sharing lessons learned about what makes grants successful. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews progress updates from two cohorts of ACX Grants recipients - the first cohort from 2021 (after 3 years) and the second from 2024 (after 1 year). The post methodically goes through each grant's status, with many showing significant progress in areas like AI safety advocacy, animal welfare, scientific research, and political lobbying. Scott then analyzes patterns in what made grants successful, finding that lobbying organizations and animal welfare projects were particularly effective, while scientific grants were harder to evaluate. He concludes that while not all projects succeeded, the $3 million program generated good value through both direct impact and startup creation, and he plans to continue it with some adjustments. Shorter summary
May 29, 2025
acx
Read on

Sorry, I Still Think MR Is Wrong About USAID

31 min • 4,651 words • 555 comments • 559 likes • podcast (28 min)
Scott Alexander responds to Tyler Cowen about USAID funding, correcting his own previous claims about overhead costs while maintaining that Cowen's criticism of USAID was misleading and potentially harmful. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to Tyler Cowen's criticism of his previous post about USAID funding. He addresses several points: whether Cowen endorsed Rubio's claims about USAID waste, the true nature of overhead costs in USAID-funded organizations, and the broader debate about foreign aid effectiveness. Scott shows that actual administrative overhead in major USAID partners like Catholic Relief Services is much lower than previously thought (around 6-7% rather than 30%), admits his mistake on this point, but maintains his criticism of Cowen's original post as misleading. He argues that USAID's work is predominantly focused on essential humanitarian aid rather than wasteful programs. Shorter summary
Apr 03, 2025
acx
Read on

Introducing AI 2027

9 min • 1,307 words • 606 comments • 516 likes • podcast (9 min)
Scott introduces a new AI forecasting project predicting rapid AI development and potential superintelligence by 2028, led by Daniel Kokotajlo, whose previous 2021 predictions proved remarkably accurate. Longer summary
Scott Alexander introduces a new AI forecasting project led by Daniel Kokotajlo and a team of experts, which predicts rapid AI developments leading to superintelligence by 2028. The post begins by noting how accurate Kokotajlo's 2021 predictions were, then presents the team's forecast which includes an intelligence explosion in 2027, government involvement in AI companies, and potential scenarios ranging from misaligned AI to technofeudalism. Scott notes that while team members have varying timelines, they consider this an 80th percentile fast scenario that shouldn't be ruled out. Shorter summary
Jan 08, 2025
acx
Read on

On Priesthoods

38 min • 5,886 words • 834 comments • 580 likes • podcast (36 min)
Scott examines the concept of 'priesthoods' (like medicine and academia) as epistemic communities that maintain high standards through isolation from the public, showing both their strengths and their vulnerability to ideological capture. Longer summary
Scott analyzes how professional 'priesthoods' like medicine and academia function as epistemic communities, maintaining their effectiveness through deliberate isolation from the public and strict internal standards. He explains how their key features - separation from the public, resistance to capitalism, and formal communication norms - help them maintain quality but also make them vulnerable to ideological capture. The post explores how these institutions were particularly susceptible to political capture in recent years, while arguing that despite their flaws, they still serve an important function that would be difficult to replicate. The discussion concludes by questioning how to deal with priesthoods' current state of partial corruption. Shorter summary
Dec 17, 2024
acx
Read on

Links For December 2024

36 min • 5,568 words • 644 comments • 210 likes • podcast (34 min)
Scott shares 55 interesting links covering topics from AI poetry to religious movements, including updates on various projects, unusual historical events, and current developments in technology, politics, and society. Longer summary
This is Scott's monthly links post for December 2024, collecting various interesting stories and developments. The links cover a wide range of topics, from Steven Seagal's bizarre life trajectory to developments in AI and technology, including updates on previous ACX topics and grants. Many links relate to ongoing discussions in the rationalist and EA communities, including debates about effective altruism and charitable giving. The post also includes various curiosities from history, culture, and current events, with Scott often providing his own analysis or perspective on the items shared. Shorter summary
Nov 12, 2024
acx
Read on

Book Review: The Rise Of Christianity

59 min • 9,077 words • 660 comments • 465 likes • podcast (53 min)
Scott Alexander reviews Rodney Stark's 'The Rise of Christianity', which examines factors contributing to Christianity's growth from a small cult to a dominant religion in the Roman Empire. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews 'The Rise of Christianity' by Rodney Stark, which explores how Christianity grew from a small cult to dominate Western history. Stark, a sociologist, applies modern religious study insights to early Christianity. The book argues that Christianity's growth was steady and explainable through factors like social networks, appeal to women, fertility differences, plague survival, and moral teachings. Scott analyzes each argument, finding some more convincing than others, and ultimately suggests that Christianity's unique emphasis on love and virtue may have been its most significant advantage. Shorter summary
Nov 05, 2024
acx
Read on

Mantic Monday: Judgment Day

25 min • 3,744 words • 469 comments • 220 likes • podcast (26 min)
The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications. Longer summary
This post discusses the intense atmosphere surrounding Election Day in the United States, comparing it to historical spectacles and highlighting the emotional and psychological impact on the population. It then delves into prediction markets and forecasting, particularly focusing on recent events in Polymarket where a large bet by a single individual caused significant market movements. The post also covers legal developments regarding prediction markets, discusses various election-related predictions, and concludes with a poetic reflection on Election Day. Shorter summary
Oct 24, 2024
acx
Read on

Notes From The Progress Studies Conference

36 min • 5,549 words • 772 comments • 399 likes • podcast (35 min)
Scott Alexander reports on the Progress Studies Conference, discussing advances in energy, AI, housing policy, and other fields, with an overall optimistic tone about recent developments and potential for future progress. Longer summary
Scott Alexander recounts his experience at the Progress Studies Conference, which focused on various technological and social advancements. The conference covered topics such as energy (particularly solar and nuclear power), politics and regulation, AI, YIMBY movement, self-driving cars, and other areas of potential progress. The overall mood was optimistic about recent developments in these fields, with many speakers highlighting how regulatory changes could accelerate progress. Scott notes that while the conference itself may not be directly responsible for recent advances, it reflects a growing awareness of the importance of technological progress and the need to address regulatory barriers. Shorter summary
May 29, 2024
acx
Read on

Links for May 2024

38 min • 5,841 words • 986 comments • 126 likes • podcast (37 min)
A wide-ranging collection of 40 news items and interesting facts, covering AI, politics, science, economics, and culture, with the author's commentary. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 40 diverse links and news items covering topics such as AI developments, politics, science, technology, economics, and culture. It includes updates on OpenAI and Google's AI projects, discussions on religious phenomena, analyses of social and economic trends, and various interesting facts and anecdotes. The author provides commentary and context for many of the items, often with a mix of humor and critical analysis. Shorter summary
Apr 09, 2024
acx
Read on

Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate

119 min • 18,355 words • 694 comments • 128 likes • podcast (99 min)
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides a detailed response to comments and criticisms of his previous post on the COVID-19 origins debate. He addresses arguments against zoonosis, clarifies misunderstandings, and discusses the methodologies used by various parties in the debate. He maintains his position favoring zoonosis over lab leak, while acknowledging the complexity of the issue and the ongoing nature of the debate. Shorter summary
Mar 21, 2024
acx
Read on

In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities

23 min • 3,438 words • 498 comments • 260 likes • podcast (19 min)
Scott Alexander defends using probabilities for hard-to-model events, arguing they aid clear communication and decision-making even in uncertain domains. Longer summary
Scott Alexander defends the use of non-frequentist probabilities for hard-to-model, non-repeating events. He argues that probabilities are linguistically convenient, don't necessarily describe one's level of information, and can be valuable when provided by expert forecasters. Scott counters claims that probabilities are used as a substitute for reasoning and addresses objections about applying probabilities to complex topics like AI. He emphasizes that probabilities are useful tools for clear communication and decision-making, even in uncertain domains. Shorter summary
Mar 05, 2024
acx
Read on

Who Predicted 2023?

19 min • 2,907 words • 171 comments • 139 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the results of his 2023 annual forecasting contest, where participants predicted 50 questions about the upcoming year. He discusses the winners in both 'Blind Mode' (relying on personal knowledge) and 'Full Mode' (using aggregation algorithms). The post analyzes the performance of various forecasting methods, including individual forecasters, prediction markets, superforecasters, and aggregation techniques. Scott concludes that Metaculus, a forecasting platform, outperformed other methods, though some individual forecasters showed exceptional skill. He also examines which 2023 events were most surprising to forecasters and shares his main takeaways from the contest. Shorter summary
Feb 20, 2024
acx
Read on

Mantic Monday 2/19/24

25 min • 3,851 words • 133 comments • 67 likes • podcast (26 min)
Scott Alexander explores recent advancements in AI-powered prediction markets, including bot-based systems, AI forecasters, and their potential impact on future predictions and decision-making. Longer summary
This post discusses recent developments in prediction markets and AI forecasting. It covers Manifold's bot-based prediction markets, FutureSearch's AI forecasting system, Vitalik Buterin's thoughts on AI and crypto in prediction markets, a Manifold promotional event called 'Bet On Love', and various current market predictions on topics like AI capabilities and political events. The post also includes short links to related articles and forecasting resources. Shorter summary
Jan 30, 2024
acx
Read on

Mantic Monday 1/29/24

19 min • 2,887 words • 228 comments • 77 likes • podcast (19 min)
The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting. Longer summary
This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by examining a claim that prediction markets have an 'election problem', showing that real-money markets performed poorly in recent elections. The author then analyzes current polls and prediction markets for the 2024 US presidential election, noting discrepancies between different platforms. The post also explores a forecasting experiment on AI futures, and reviews several other prediction markets on current events. Finally, it includes short links to other forecasting-related news and reflections. Shorter summary
Jan 25, 2024
acx
Read on

The Psychopolitics Of Trauma

40 min • 6,173 words • 531 comments • 668 likes • podcast (35 min)
Scott Alexander proposes that political hyperpartisanship might be a form of trauma, comparing PTSD symptoms to behaviors observed in political extremists. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the idea that political extremism might be a form of trauma. He compares symptoms of PTSD to behaviors observed in politically hyperpartisan individuals, such as triggers, distorted cognitions, and hypervigilance. The post discusses how trapped priors in the brain might explain both cognitive and emotional aspects of political extremism. Scott also considers the implications of framing political partisanship as trauma, including potential risks of expanding the concept of trauma. Shorter summary
Dec 01, 2023
acx
Read on

Links For November 2023

27 min • 4,069 words • 410 comments • 125 likes • podcast (26 min)
A collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering topics from religious practices to AI developments, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering various topics. It includes discussions on religious practices, video games, political trends, scientific studies, AI developments, economic analyses, historical anecdotes, and cultural phenomena. The author provides brief commentary on many of the items, often with a mix of humor and critical analysis. The links range from academic studies and economic reports to quirky historical facts and contemporary cultural observations. Shorter summary
Nov 28, 2023
acx
Read on

In Continued Defense Of Effective Altruism

28 min • 4,266 words • 846 comments • 428 likes • podcast (19 min)
Scott Alexander defends effective altruism by highlighting its major accomplishments and arguing that its occasional missteps are outweighed by its positive impact on the world. Longer summary
Scott Alexander defends effective altruism (EA) against recent criticisms, highlighting its accomplishments in global health, animal welfare, AI safety, and other areas. He argues that EA has saved around 200,000 lives, equivalent to ending gun violence, curing AIDS, and preventing a 9/11-scale attack in the US. Scott contends that EA's achievements are often overlooked because they focus on less publicized causes, and that the movement's occasional missteps are minor compared to its positive impact. He emphasizes that EA is a coalition of people who care about logically analyzing important causes, whether broadly popular or not, and encourages readers to investigate and support the most beneficial causes. Shorter summary
Oct 27, 2023
acx
Read on

My Left Kidney

48 min • 7,380 words • 915 comments • 583 likes • podcast (39 min)
Scott Alexander recounts his experience donating a kidney, from initial motivation to post-surgery recovery, while discussing the broader context of organ donation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander describes his journey to donate a kidney, including his motivations, the medical process, and the challenges he faced. He discusses the effectiveness of kidney donation compared to other forms of altruism, the stigma around mental health in the donation process, and the need for systemic changes to address the kidney shortage. Scott also reflects on the experience of the surgery and recovery, and encourages others to consider donation. Shorter summary
Sep 28, 2023
acx
Read on

Links For September 2023

28 min • 4,250 words • 1,068 comments • 110 likes • podcast (26 min)
A diverse collection of links and brief comments on recent developments in science, technology, politics, and society, ranging from climate change to AI developments to social experiments. Longer summary
This post is a collection of links and brief comments on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including climate change, AI developments, social experiments, scientific studies, political issues, and technological innovations. The author presents these topics with a mix of factual reporting, personal commentary, and sometimes humorous observations. The post touches on subjects like geoengineering, crypto for sex workers, AI art, fertility rates, dating apps, charity effectiveness, and many others. The author often provides links to original sources and sometimes offers his own analysis or opinion on the matters discussed. Shorter summary
Sep 13, 2023
acx
Read on

Book Review: Elon Musk

67 min • 10,307 words • 918 comments • 342 likes • podcast (49 min)
Scott reviews Ashlee Vance's 2015 Elon Musk biography, analyzing Musk's personality, work ethic, and business strategies to understand his successes and controversies. Longer summary
This book review analyzes Ashlee Vance's 2015 biography of Elon Musk, examining Musk's personality, work ethic, and business strategies. The review explores Musk's engineering abilities, management style, and the reasons behind his companies' successes despite controversial decisions. It discusses Musk's intense focus, his tendency to set unrealistic timelines, and his impact on employees. The review also touches on Musk's social skills, his approach to PR, and speculates on his future success with Twitter/X. Shorter summary
Aug 09, 2023
acx
Read on

Links For August 2023

26 min • 3,927 words • 754 comments • 137 likes • podcast (25 min)
Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 38 links and news items, covering topics from book reviews and religious history to AI developments and political trends, with brief summaries and comments on each. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 38 diverse links and news items covering topics such as book reviews, religious history, economic forecasts, libertarianism, crime statistics, scientific studies, AI developments, educational policies, and political trends. Scott Alexander provides brief summaries or comments on each item, often with a mix of factual information and his own perspective. The links range from academic studies to social media posts, covering current events, historical anecdotes, and ongoing debates in various fields. Shorter summary
Apr 12, 2023
acx
Read on

Book Review: From Oversight To Overkill

38 min • 5,765 words • 590 comments • 291 likes • podcast (36 min)
Scott Alexander reviews a book critiquing Institutional Review Boards, arguing they now harm medical research more than they help. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews Simon Whitney's book 'From Oversight To Overkill', which critiques the current state of Institutional Review Boards (IRBs) in medical research. The book traces the history of IRBs from their noble beginnings to their current state of over-regulation and obstruction. Whitney argues that while IRBs were intended to protect research subjects, they now cause more harm than good by delaying or preventing potentially life-saving research. The review discusses several case studies that illustrate the problems with IRBs, and concludes by considering Whitney's proposed reforms and the broader societal trends that have led to this situation. Shorter summary
Mar 10, 2023
acx
Read on

Links For March 2023

27 min • 4,178 words • 783 comments • 123 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and brief discussions on topics including AI developments, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. Longer summary
This post is a collection of diverse links and brief discussions on various topics. Scott Alexander covers AI developments, historical events, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. He touches on subjects like AI safety concerns, social media effects on mental health, mask efficacy debates, and potential shifts in 'woke' culture. The post also includes interesting anecdotes, thought experiments, and statistical analyses on topics ranging from medieval Mali to modern dating dynamics. Shorter summary
Feb 27, 2023
acx
Read on

Highlights From The Comments On Geography Of Madness

22 min • 3,377 words • 278 comments • 102 likes • podcast (19 min)
Scott Alexander discusses reader comments on his 'Geography of Madness' review, revising views on culture-bound syndromes and exploring various mental health topics. Longer summary
This post discusses various comments on Scott Alexander's review of 'The Geography of Madness'. It covers topics like culture-bound syndromes, the prevalence of brief psychotic disorder, the history of school shootings, the universality of PTSD, the rise of transgender identities, and the correlation between believing in ghosts and experiencing PMS. Scott revises some of his previous views, becoming more skeptical about many traditional culture-bound syndromes and acknowledging the complexity of cultural influences on mental health conditions. Shorter summary
Feb 22, 2023
acx
Read on

Book Review: The Geography Of Madness

57 min • 8,723 words • 803 comments • 409 likes • podcast (53 min)
Scott reviews a book on culture-bound syndromes, expanding the discussion to how all mental illnesses are influenced by culture to varying degrees. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews 'The Geography of Madness' by Frank Bures, which explores culture-bound syndromes like koro (belief in penis theft by witches). The book traces the history and spread of these syndromes across cultures. Scott expands on the idea, discussing how all mental illnesses exist on a spectrum of biological vs. cultural influence. He argues that even conditions considered 'real' in Western psychiatry, like anorexia or PTSD, have significant cultural components. The review touches on complex issues around gender dysphoria and cultural beliefs, concluding that there is no truly 'neutral' culture free from influence on mental health presentations. Shorter summary
Per page:
Showing 1 to 25 of 159 results
Get these search results in an EPUB

Your filters match 159 posts.

Posts to include
–
Leave empty to keep the defaults. Range cannot exceed 500 posts.
Download now

Generates an EPUB right now and downloads it to your device.

Send to email

Generates an EPUB in the background and emails you a temporary download link.

Your email is not shared with anyone.

Email address

To send to your Kindle, just use this link.