Scott reviews comments on his vibecession post, exploring when it started, whether it's really about economics or culture, and notably finding that China experiences similar pessimism despite 5-10x income growth, suggesting vibes can be completely divorced from economic reality. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and discusses comments on his previous post about the 'vibecession' (the disconnect between good economic indicators and negative public sentiment). The discussion covers when the vibecession actually started, whether economic complaints are proxies for cultural dissatisfaction, housing and inflation concerns, international comparisons (especially China's similar phenomenon despite massive economic growth), and concludes that vibes may be genuinely divorced from economic reality, though housing prices and partisan political feelings play significant roles. Shorter summary

Scott examines San Francisco's apparent improvement in homelessness, finding the main effect was decreased tent encampments due to court rulings allowing easier clearing, not actual reduction in homeless population, revealing a basic tradeoff between visibility and homeless welfare. Longer summary

Scott investigates why San Francisco's homelessness crisis appears to have improved, finding that the main effect was a dramatic decrease in tent encampments (not overall homelessness) due to court rulings making it easier to clear them. He analyzes four potential explanations: encampment clearing after legal changes starting in 2023, a possible small decrease in actual homelessness due to falling rents and enforcement driving people to hide, Mayor Lurie's policies (which he finds mostly ineffective), and claims about cities shipping homeless people elsewhere (which he finds largely unsupported). Scott concludes this is a 'maximally boring story' about a basic tradeoff where cities made homelessness less visible at the cost of making homeless people's lives harder, challenging both his previous belief that nothing could improve the problem without mass incarceration and the opposing view that 'getting tough' would be compassionate. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes the sudden emergence of commercial trait-based embryo selection services, discussing both the scientific validity and ethical implications of selecting embryos for health outcomes, intelligence, and physical traits. Longer summary

Scott examines the recent development of commercial embryo selection services, particularly focusing on companies like Genomic Prediction, Orchid Health, Nucleus, and Herasight. He explains how the technology works, comparing different companies' claims and methodologies, and discusses both scientific challenges and ethical concerns. The post explores the potential benefits, like reduced disease risk and increased IQ, while acknowledging issues around cost, racial disparities, and social implications. A significant portion focuses on Herasight's critique of competitor Nucleus's scientific claims. The post concludes by placing this technology in the broader context of human enhancement and future technological developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the political battle over California's AI safety bill SB 1047, its veto by Governor Newsom, and the implications for future AI regulation efforts. Longer summary

This post recounts the story behind SB 1047, a California bill aimed at regulating AI safety that was passed by the legislature but vetoed by Governor Newsom. Scott discusses the bill's supporters and opponents, the political maneuvering involved, and the aftermath of the veto. He analyzes the reasons for the veto, suggesting it was influenced by Silicon Valley donors and interests. The post also explores potential future strategies for AI regulation advocates, including possible alliances with left-wing groups. Scott concludes with reasons for optimism despite the setback, noting growing public support for AI regulation. Shorter summary

The review examines Daniel Everett's 'How Language Began', which challenges Chomsky's linguistic theories and proposes an alternative view of language as a gradual cultural invention. Longer summary

This book review discusses Daniel Everett's 'How Language Began', which challenges Noam Chomsky's dominant theories in linguistics. Everett argues that language emerged gradually over a long period, is primarily for communication, and is not innate but a cultural invention. The review contrasts Everett's views with Chomsky's, detailing Everett's research with the Pirahã people and his alternative theory of language origins. It also touches on the controversy Everett's work has sparked in linguistics and its potential implications for understanding language and AI. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Lyman Stone's arguments against Effective Altruism, defending the movement's impact, methodology, and philosophical foundations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Lyman Stone's critique of Effective Altruism (EA), addressing several key arguments. He points out flaws in Stone's methodology for evaluating EA's impact on charitable giving, explains why EA focuses on diverse causes, defends the value of research and white-collar work in philanthropy, argues against the suggestion of extreme measures like terrorism, and discusses the philosophical foundations of caring about animal welfare. Scott also refutes the claim that EA ideas are unoriginal, highlighting the movement's unique aspects and its role as a social technology for promoting altruistic behavior. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a book on Internal Family Systems therapy that controversially claims some mental health issues are caused by literal demons. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'The Others Within Us', a book by Robert Falconer about Internal Family Systems therapy and its controversial approach to dealing with 'demons' or malevolent spiritual entities in patients' minds. The review explores the book's claims, the history of IFS therapy, and the potential implications of treating mental health issues as spiritual possession, while also providing a skeptical, materialist interpretation of the phenomena described. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a detailed response to comments and criticisms of his previous post on the COVID-19 origins debate. He addresses arguments against zoonosis, clarifies misunderstandings, and discusses the methodologies used by various parties in the debate. He maintains his position favoring zoonosis over lab leak, while acknowledging the complexity of the issue and the ongoing nature of the debate. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a $100,000 debate on COVID-19 origins, where the zoonotic hypothesis unexpectedly won against the lab leak theory. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews a debate on the origins of COVID-19 between Saar Wilf, who supports the lab leak hypothesis, and Peter Miller, who argues for zoonotic origin. The debate was part of a $100,000 challenge by Wilf's Rootclaim project. Miller won decisively, with both judges ruling in favor of zoonotic origin. Alexander analyzes the debate format, arguments, and aftermath, discussing issues with Bayesian reasoning, extreme probabilities, and the challenges of resolving complex scientific questions through debate. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the winners and finalists of the 2023 Book Review Contest, providing details about the reviews, authors, and prizes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the winners of the 2023 Book Review Contest, listing the top three winners, finalists, and honorable mentions. He provides details about the prizes, brief descriptions of the winning reviews and their authors, and mentions plans for another contest next year. The post also includes information on how participants can check their scores and thanks those who helped organize the contest. Shorter summary

The post examines recent developments in model city projects, including California Forever's plan in Solano County, updates on Praxis and Prospera, and brief mentions of other global initiatives. Longer summary

This post discusses several model city projects, focusing on California Forever's plan to build a new city in Solano County, California. It details the project's ambitious goals, potential challenges, and the mixed reactions it has received. The post also covers updates on Praxis, a highly visionary city-building project, and Prospera, a special economic zone in Honduras facing legal battles. Finally, it briefly mentions other model city developments worldwide. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander suggests that studying human fetishes could provide insights into AI alignment challenges, particularly regarding generalization and interpretability. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the idea that fetish research might help understand AI alignment. He draws parallels between evolution's 'alignment' of humans towards reproduction and our attempts to align AI with human values. The post discusses how fetishes represent failures in evolution's alignment strategy, similar to potential AI alignment failures. Scott suggests that studying how humans develop fetishes could provide insights into how AIs might misgeneralize or misalign from intended goals. He proposes several speculative explanations for common fetishes and discusses how these might relate to AI alignment challenges, particularly in terms of generalization and interpretability problems. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a biography of Vladimir Putin, tracing his rise to power and methods of maintaining control in Russia. Longer summary

This post reviews 'The Man Without A Face: The Unlikely Rise Of Vladimir Putin' by Masha Gessen, detailing Putin's life from childhood to his rise to power in Russia. It covers his KGB career, his unexpected ascent in politics, and his methods of consolidating power, including potential involvement in apartment bombings. The review also discusses Putin's shift towards conservative values and ends with reflections on whether a similar rise to dictatorship could happen in the US. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Laws of Trading' by Agustin Lebron, examining trading principles and their broader applications to decision-making and life. Longer summary

This book review analyzes 'The Laws of Trading' by Agustin Lebron, which explores trading principles and their applications to decision-making in various aspects of life. The reviewer discusses Lebron's insights on motivation, adverse selection, risk management, liquidity, edge, models, costs and capacity, possibility, alignment, technology, and adaptation, while drawing parallels to other fields and offering personal reflections. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various explanations for why top students attend the best colleges, including optimistic views about maximizing potential and cynical views about signaling and 'privilege laundering'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the question of why top students are sent to the best colleges, presenting both optimistic and cynical explanations. He discusses the potential benefits of matching high-performing students with expert teachers, but also considers the signaling theory of education. The post delves into a fascinating hypothesis about elite colleges functioning as 'privilege laundering' machines, mixing meritocratic and privileged students to create a universally recognized signal of merit. Scott examines the potential advantages and drawbacks of this system, concluding that while imperfect, it may be preferable to alternatives that completely disregard merit. Shorter summary

A review of 'Viral' by Chan and Ridley explores competing hypotheses about COVID-19's origins, critiquing institutional responses and emphasizing ongoing uncertainty. Longer summary

This book review discusses 'Viral' by Alina Chan and Matt Ridley, which explores the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reviewer summarizes key points from the book, including evidence for both natural and lab leak hypotheses, the history of lab leaks, the relevance of Wuhan's location, and criticisms of institutional responses. The review also covers technical evidence and debates around it, while emphasizing the reviewer's uncertainty about the pandemic's true origin. The author concludes by reflecting on the role of amateur researchers and the importance of scientific self-correction. Shorter summary

A review of Guy Debord's 'The Society of the Spectacle', examining its critique of capitalism and mass media, and relating its ideas to modern issues. Longer summary

This review examines Guy Debord's 'The Society of the Spectacle', a Marxist critique of capitalism and mass media. The reviewer summarizes Debord's key ideas about how spectacle dominates modern society, commodifies all aspects of life, and creates a false reality. The review also covers Debord's later comments on the book, relating his ideas to current issues like social media, fake news, and information warfare. While acknowledging the book's insights, the reviewer ultimately takes a more moderate stance on capitalism and technology's impacts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the technical implementation details of impact markets for charity funding, exploring various options and challenges. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the technical implementation details of impact markets for charity funding. He discusses various options for structuring the market, pricing certificates, handling founder equity, and addressing legal and ethical concerns. The post examines different approaches to kickstarting such a market, considers potential investors and funders, and concludes with some hybrid design proposals to balance competing interests. Shorter summary

A detailed review of Michael Shellenberger's 'San Fransicko', examining its critiques of San Francisco's progressive policies on homelessness, drugs, and crime. Longer summary

This post reviews Michael Shellenberger's book 'San Fransicko', which criticizes progressive policies on homelessness, drug addiction, and crime in San Francisco. The review examines key claims in the book, fact-checking statistics and comparing them to other sources. While finding some of Shellenberger's criticisms valid, the review also points out areas where the book presents a one-sided narrative or misrepresents data. Overall, the reviewer sees the book as a flawed but thought-provoking critique of San Francisco's approach to urban problems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting, including monkeypox predictions, updates on the Ukraine-Russia war, AI development forecasts, Elon Musk's potential Twitter acquisition, and various political predictions. Scott discusses Metaculus predictions for monkeypox cases, analyzes forecasts for the Ukraine conflict, examines AI capability predictions in response to a bet between Elon Musk and Gary Marcus, and reviews predictions for US elections and other current events. The post also includes updates on prediction market platforms and recent articles about forecasting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 33 diverse links on topics ranging from history and science to technology and politics, offering brief summaries and commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 33 diverse links and brief summaries on various topics, including history, science, technology, politics, and culture. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects, from the history of garlic and magnets to AI-generated art, touching on topics like language models, Nobel laureates by state, ivermectin studies, nuclear weapons, and unusual legal cases. The post showcases interesting facts, recent studies, and thought-provoking ideas across multiple disciplines. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his experiences and challenges in running a microgrants program, offering insights and advice for others considering similar initiatives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience running a microgrants program, detailing the challenges and complexities involved. He discusses the difficulty of evaluating grant proposals, relying on expert advisors, dealing with applicants' poor grant-writing skills, and navigating the moral dilemmas of effective altruism. Scott concludes by questioning whether running such a program is worthwhile for most people, suggesting alternatives like donating to established charities, and proposing a new impact certificate-based system for future grant-making. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reveals that Lewis Carroll had conceived an idea similar to retroactive public goods funding in 1894, predating modern reinventions of the concept. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of retroactive public goods funding, highlighting its multiple independent inventions under different names. He then reveals that Lewis Carroll, the author of 'Alice in Wonderland', had actually conceived a similar idea in his 1894 book 'Sylvie and Bruno'. The post includes a lengthy quote from Carroll's book describing a system where professors are examined and rewarded at the end of their careers, with tradesmen essentially funding their lives in the interim based on their potential future success. Scott points out how this system closely resembles modern concepts of retroactive public goods funding, with the main difference being the lack of financialization of the tradesmen's role. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes ivermectin studies for COVID-19, finding most positive results likely due to methodological flaws, fraud, or confounding by parasitic infections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of ivermectin studies for COVID-19 treatment, examining methodological issues, potential fraud, and confounding factors. He concludes that ivermectin likely doesn't significantly reduce COVID mortality except potentially in areas with high parasitic worm infections. The post explores broader issues around scientific credibility, fraud detection, and public trust in science. Shorter summary

A compilation of 30 diverse links on various topics including science, history, technology, and culture, with brief commentaries by Scott Alexander. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 30 diverse links and brief discussions on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including scientific findings, historical anecdotes, technological developments, cultural phenomena, and current events. The post touches on topics such as oil spills, architecture, IQ research, chronic pain therapy, alcohol consumption, AI safety, and more. Scott Alexander provides short commentaries or explanations for each link, often adding his own insights or connecting the information to broader themes. Shorter summary