Scott reviews a paper by leading researchers attempting to determine AI consciousness through computational theories, critiques their conflation of access and phenomenal consciousness, and predicts society will inconsistently ascribe consciousness to AIs based on their social roles rather than their underlying architecture. Longer summary

Scott reviews a new paper by Yoshua Bengio, David Chalmers, and others that attempts to determine whether AI systems are conscious by examining computational theories of consciousness like Recurrent Processing Theory and Global Workspace Theory. The paper finds that current AIs lack the necessary 'something something feedback' mechanisms for consciousness, but future architectures could have them. Scott criticizes the paper for conflating access consciousness (ability to introspect) with phenomenal consciousness (inner experience), and argues that even if AIs satisfy these computational criteria, it's unclear whether they would truly have subjective experience. He predicts a paradox where society will treat some AIs (like companions) as conscious while denying consciousness to functionally identical AIs in other roles (like factory robots), similar to how we treat dogs versus pigs today. Shorter summary

A review of Stanislas Dehaene's 'Consciousness and the Brain', discussing scientific findings on consciousness and their implications. Longer summary

This review discusses Stanislas Dehaene's book 'Consciousness and the Brain', which explores the scientific understanding of consciousness. The book defines consciousness as the ability to report on a perception, and describes experiments that differentiate conscious from unconscious processing. It explains what the brain can do unconsciously, what requires consciousness, and how consciousness operates in the brain. The review also covers the book's insights on topics like schizophrenia and the 'hard problem' of consciousness. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his AI risk post, discussing AI self-awareness, narrow vs. general AI, catastrophe probabilities, and research priorities. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to various comments on his original post about AI risk. He addresses topics such as the nature of self-awareness in AI, the distinction between narrow and general AI, probabilities of AI-related catastrophes, incentives for misinformation, arguments for AGI timelines, and the relationship between near-term and long-term AI research. Scott uses analogies and metaphors to illustrate complex ideas about AI development and potential risks. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a monthly collection of 42 diverse links covering topics from science, politics, culture, and technology, highlighting interesting findings and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 42 diverse links and topics, ranging from scientific studies to political news and cultural observations. Scott Alexander curates these links monthly, covering a wide array of subjects including zoology, sociology, economics, psychology, technology, and more. The links often highlight interesting or surprising findings, such as studies on cult demographics, obesity research controversies, and the effects of testosterone on belief in minority positions. Scott also includes humorous content, political commentary, and discussions on current events and social trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the evolution of online culture wars from atheism to feminism to race, analyzing the dynamics of these shifts and speculating on future trends. Longer summary

Scott Alexander traces the evolution of online culture wars from New Atheism through feminism to the current focus on race, examining how each movement rose and fell in popularity. He analyzes the dynamics of these shifts using concepts like fashion cycles and signaling theory, and speculates on the future trajectory of culture war topics. The post explores how terms like 'SJW' and 'woke' impacted discourse, the rise and potential decline of New Socialism, and draws parallels to longer-term cycles of mainstream institutional values. Shorter summary

Scott examines the relationship between sleep, synaptic homeostasis, and depression, exploring how sleep deprivation temporarily alleviates depression symptoms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a phenomenon where sleep deprivation temporarily alleviates depression, and explores the potential connection between sleep, synaptic homeostasis, and depression. He reviews the synaptic homeostasis hypothesis of sleep, which suggests that sleep helps renormalize synaptic connections, and connects this to research indicating that depression involves a deficit of synapses. The post then delves into various subtopics related to this theory, including the roles of REM and non-REM sleep, the effects of TMS and electroconvulsive therapy, and potential connections to circadian rhythms and bipolar disorder. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the trade-offs between accuracy and liability in medical information, extending the analysis to public health experts and the role of expertise in society. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the challenges of providing accurate medical information online, using his own experience with a psychiatry database and comparing it to WebMD. He argues that larger, more legitimate sources like WebMD and government agencies often provide less useful information due to liability concerns and political pressures. The post then extends this analysis to public health experts like Dr. Fauci, suggesting that while they may not always provide the best advice, they serve an important role as 'legibly mediocre' sources of information in a complex system. Scott concludes that while the current system of expertise is flawed, it's better than alternatives and deserves some appreciation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the media's failure in coronavirus coverage was not about prediction, but about poor probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. Longer summary

This post discusses the media's failure in covering the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that the issue was not primarily one of prediction but of probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. Scott Alexander argues that while predicting the exact course of the pandemic was difficult, the media and experts failed to properly convey and act on the potential risks even when the probability seemed low. He contrasts this with examples of good reasoning from individuals who took the threat seriously early on, not because they were certain it would be catastrophic, but because they understood the importance of preparing for low-probability, high-impact events. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering technology, science, economics, politics, and culture, including critiques of studies, interesting scientific findings, and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including technology, science, economics, politics, and culture. Some highlights include: a list of places branding themselves as the next Silicon Valley, a study on declining fertility in dogs, critiques of bad scientific studies, an article on antidepressant tapering, data on value drift in effective altruism, and discussions on the Mueller Report's impact on media credibility. The post also includes links to various interesting facts, studies, and developments in fields such as nutrition, drug use, e-cigarettes, and urban development. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the Intellectual Dark Web can be both popular and silenced, explaining various mechanisms of social censorship and how they apply to controversial thinkers. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that the 'Intellectual Dark Web' (IDW) can be both popular and silenced, contrary to criticisms. He points out that marginalized groups often have famous spokespeople, taboo ideas tend to generate celebrity, and fame doesn't protect ordinary supporters from social repercussions. He explains how the internet has enabled controversial voices to be heard, and suggests that the IDW's complaints about threats and harassment should be taken seriously. Scott also argues that the IDW likely still self-censors to some degree, and that silencing is more about preventing common knowledge than suppressing support or leaders. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Inadequate Equilibria' by Eliezer Yudkowsky, a book exploring systemic failures, decision-making, and the limits of social consensus. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Eliezer Yudkowsky's book 'Inadequate Equilibria', which explores why bad situations persist despite pressure to improve them, when to trust social consensus vs. personal reasoning, and the pitfalls of overusing the Outside View in decision-making. The book offers a framework for analyzing systemic failures and inefficiencies, but Scott finds its treatment of the Outside View somewhat disappointing. He recommends reading the book despite its flaws, citing its thought-provoking nature and useful conceptual toolbox. Shorter summary

A collection of links covering topics from drug regulation and genetic testing to tax reform and AI developments, with Scott's commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a wide-ranging links post covering various news items and studies. Topics include FDA regulations and drug pricing, genetic testing advances, Russian Facebook ads from the 2016 election, studies on education and intelligence, tax reform effects on graduate students, and various scientific developments. The post moves quickly between topics, providing brief commentary and often linking to additional sources. Several items focus on medical and healthcare issues, from insulin prices to studies on pain medication effectiveness. The post maintains Scott's characteristic mix of intellectual curiosity and light humor throughout. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the concept of 'Kolmogorov complicity' and its implications for scientific inquiry under oppressive orthodoxies, using historical and hypothetical examples. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'Kolmogorov complicity' in relation to historical and contemporary scientific orthodoxies. He begins by examining myths about scientists persecuted by the Church, noting that while some scientists were indeed punished, it was often for reasons beyond their scientific work. The post then discusses the 'Kolmogorov option,' where scientists strategically comply with political demands while privately pursuing truth. Alexander argues that this approach, while sometimes necessary, can lead to systemic problems in truth-seeking and education. He uses a hypothetical scenario about lightning and thunder to illustrate how even a seemingly harmless orthodoxy can corrupt scientific inquiry and societal knowledge. The post concludes by suggesting the need for 'whisper networks' to maintain truth-seeking in the face of problematic orthodoxies, while acknowledging the challenges and risks involved in such an approach. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering various topics from Judaism and science to media bias and hate crime hoaxes, with Scott's commentary on each story. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, where he shares interesting articles and studies he's found with brief commentary on each. The links cover a wide range of topics including religious practices, scientific research, healthcare policy, media bias, and social issues. Among the notable items are studies on early school starting age and crime rates, fake hate crime reports after Trump's election, and research on gender differences in medical care. The tone is analytical and sometimes skeptical, with Scott often providing additional context or pointing out methodological issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander endorses Clinton (or Johnson/Stein in safe states) over Trump, citing concerns about Trump's unpredictability and potential negative impacts on conservatism and social dynamics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander endorses voting for Hillary Clinton in swing states, and Clinton, Johnson, or Stein in safe states. He argues against Donald Trump, not primarily on policy grounds, but because of Trump's unpredictability, potential for high-variance outcomes, and the damage he could do to conservatism and the fight against social justice extremism. Alexander expresses concerns about Trump's lack of concrete plans, his potential to radicalize the next generation towards the far left, and his movement's epistemic vices. He also touches on issues like global warming and immigration, urging readers to consider the long-term consequences of their vote. Shorter summary

A links post featuring stories about AI research, scientific studies, historical oddities, and current events, ranging from antibacterials in soap to disco riots at baseball games. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting stories and studies. It covers topics ranging from AI research (including MIRI's new paper on Logical Induction and UC Berkeley's new AI safety center), scientific findings (about school entry age and journal quality), historical oddities (like Disco Demolition Night and pay toilets), and current events (like the kratom ban and Seattle's microhousing). The post demonstrates Scott's typical mix of academic research, policy analysis, and interesting historical anecdotes, all tied together with his characteristic dry humor. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links and studies on various topics, from bad statistics and media coverage to technological progress and scientific discoveries, with commentary from Scott Alexander. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, presenting a diverse collection of interesting articles, studies, and developments. The topics range from media coverage and politics, through scientific studies and technological progress, to social developments and cultural phenomena. Scott provides commentary on many of the links, often adding context, questioning methodology, or highlighting interesting implications. The post maintains a mix of serious academic content and lighter cultural observations. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links and brief commentary spanning topics from scientific research to cultural phenomena, including updates on various studies challenging previous beliefs. Longer summary

This is a links post containing short summaries and comments on various news, studies, and interesting articles. Topics covered include gun violence research, genetic studies, college admissions and tuition, nutrition science, criminal justice reform, and cultural effects. Scott discusses new research challenging previous beliefs about bilingualism and drug side effects, shares interesting discoveries about religious effects on society, and provides updates on various scientific and technological developments. The post also includes commentary on political developments, interesting place names, and various cultural phenomena. Shorter summary

A curated collection of interesting links covering academic debates, cultural issues, economics, and scientific discoveries from around the web. Longer summary

This is a links post containing various interesting articles and news items from around the web. The post covers topics ranging from academic debates, cultural issues, economics, and scientific discoveries. Notable items include discussions about political correctness at Oberlin, a replication debate in economics, SpaceX's successful rocket landing, and various historical curiosities like the Roman charioteer Gaius Appuleius Diocles and the Sedan nuclear test mishap. Shorter summary

In a fictional story, five islanders confront their society's religious taboos after a shipwrecked sailor points out their blue eyes, leading them to question and ultimately reject their beliefs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a fictional story about five islanders who discover a flaw in their society's religious taboos after a shipwrecked sailor points out their blue eyes. The story explores themes of knowledge, belief, and social pressure as the characters grapple with the implications of their newfound awareness and ultimately reject their society's beliefs. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering science, economics, and culture, with key stories about psychology study replication failures and various scientific findings. Longer summary

This is a links post containing various interesting news and studies from around the internet. Scott shares updates on topics ranging from economics to psychology to politics. Key highlights include a discussion of the psychology replication crisis where only half of major studies replicated, new findings about e-cigarettes being safer than smoking, insights into carbon offset fraud in Russia and Ukraine, and various scientific studies on topics like genetics and obesity, women in STEM fields, and the effects of school schedules on academic performance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the problem of overconfidence in probability estimates, arguing that extreme certainty is rarely justified, especially for complex future predictions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the problem of overconfidence in probability estimates, particularly when people claim to be extremely certain about complex future events. He explains how experiments show that people are often vastly overconfident, even when they claim 99.9999% certainty. Scott argues that extreme confidence is rarely justified, especially for predictions about technological progress or societal changes. He suggests that overconfidence contributes to intolerance and close-mindedness, and that studying history can help reduce overconfidence by showing how often confident predictions have been wrong in the past. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering research studies, social issues, economic trends and cultural phenomena that challenged expectations. Longer summary

This is a links post compiling various interesting news and studies from different fields. It covers a range of topics from historical myths about Europe's Little Ice Age to current research on poverty, artificial sweeteners, and military suicide rates. Scott highlights several studies that challenged his expectations, including findings about soda taxes and weight loss mortality. The post also touches on social issues like accusations of sexism in libraries and reactions to businesses refusing service to gay weddings. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the concept of innate ability and argues for its acceptance, while cautioning against tying self-worth to intellectual achievement. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of innate ability and its impact on self-worth, using personal anecdotes and philosophical arguments. He discusses how attributing success to hard work alone can be problematic, as it ignores inherent differences in aptitude. The post compares attitudes towards intelligence with those towards other traits like weight or poverty, noting a inconsistency in how society views these issues. Scott argues for accepting innate differences while still encouraging effort, and suggests that self-worth should not be tied to intellectual ability or achievement. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques feminist stereotyping of nerds, arguing that nerds' social struggles are real and not simply male entitlement. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Laurie Penny's article about 'nerd entitlement,' arguing that feminists often unfairly stereotype and shame nerdy men. He contends that nerds' social difficulties and pain are real, and not simply a result of male entitlement or privilege. Alexander criticizes the tendency to dismiss nerds' struggles and accuse them of misogyny, arguing this perpetuates harmful stereotypes. He calls for more understanding and nuance in discussions of gender, privilege, and social dynamics in nerd culture. Shorter summary