The post examines recent developments in model city projects, including California Forever's plan in Solano County, updates on Praxis and Prospera, and brief mentions of other global initiatives. Longer summary

This post discusses several model city projects, focusing on California Forever's plan to build a new city in Solano County, California. It details the project's ambitious goals, potential challenges, and the mixed reactions it has received. The post also covers updates on Praxis, a highly visionary city-building project, and Prospera, a special economic zone in Honduras facing legal battles. Finally, it briefly mentions other model city developments worldwide. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the shortcomings of OpenAI's ChatGPT, highlighting the limitations of current AI alignment techniques and their implications for future AI development. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the limitations of OpenAI's ChatGPT, focusing on its inability to consistently avoid saying offensive things despite extensive training. He argues that this demonstrates fundamental problems with current AI alignment techniques, particularly Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF). The post outlines three main issues: RLHF's ineffectiveness, potential negative consequences when it does work, and the possibility of more advanced AIs bypassing it entirely. Alexander concludes by emphasizing the broader implications for AI safety and the need for better control mechanisms. Shorter summary

The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several current events and their related prediction markets. It starts with Trump's chances for the 2024 GOP nomination, which remain high despite recent scandals. The post then discusses the new Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting, funded by the Future Fund. It examines prediction markets for Elon Musk's Twitter deal, showing low chances of completion. The post analyzes the impact of the Dobbs decision on Democrats' Senate chances, noting a puzzling delay in market reactions. Finally, it covers various other forecasting topics, including COVID-19 ensemble models, the race to replace Boris Johnson, and predictions about the East African Federation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his ivermectin article, discussing criticisms, the worms hypothesis, vaccine skepticism, and journalism quality. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's previous article about ivermectin as a potential COVID-19 treatment. Scott responds to criticisms from ivmmeta.com, discusses the worms hypothesis with various commenters, addresses concerns about the TOGETHER trial, and shares perspectives on vaccine skepticism and journalism quality. He also reflects on his own writing process compared to traditional journalism. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a curated list of 37 diverse and interesting links, covering topics from historical events to recent scientific studies, with brief summaries and occasional commentary. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 37 links to various articles, studies, and interesting facts across a wide range of topics. Scott Alexander presents these links with brief summaries or comments, covering subjects from historical events and scientific studies to economic theories and technological advancements. The tone is informative and sometimes humorous, with Scott occasionally offering personal opinions or admitting to previous errors. The links span diverse areas including politics, psychology, economics, technology, and culture. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various modern independence-seeking projects, including charter cities and secessionist movements, discussing their potential and challenges. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various modern-day independence-seeking projects like charter cities, utopian communes, and secessionist movements. He covers the Free State Project in New Hampshire and a similar proposal for Montenegro in Europe. The post then examines the Charter Cities Institute's claims about the effectiveness of charter cities, including a critical analysis by Rethink Priorities. Scott also describes the Black Hammer organization's plan for Hammer City, a proposed city for people of color. Finally, he discusses the current state of charter cities, including concerns about their size and governance models, and considers whether charter cities can truly drive large-scale economic development. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 35 diverse links covering scientific studies, historical facts, cultural observations, and technological developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of 35 interesting links on various topics. These include scientific studies, historical anecdotes, cultural observations, and technological developments. Some notable items are: a failed replication of the link between childhood screen time and attention problems, insights into the Canadian tech scene, a map of Reddit, and a technology for animating old photos. The post also covers topics like urban planning, economic policies, and quirky historical facts. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links on topics ranging from gerrymandering and health insurance to tech bubbles and extinction risk estimates, presented with minimal commentary. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various interesting links and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including gerrymandering, health insurance effects, corporate profits, drug pricing, media bias, ketamine research, tech bubbles, seasonal effects on mental health, FDA drug importation plans, research on sex differences, carbon capture technologies, birth order effects, waist-to-hip ratio preferences, extinction risk estimates, life sciences research, Google algorithm changes affecting health sites, online economy intricacies, fluoride effects on IQ, and many other diverse subjects. The post presents these items without much commentary, leaving readers to explore further on their own. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander challenges the popular interpretation of the Rat Park study, arguing that addiction is not solely caused by poor environments and emphasizing genetic factors in addiction susceptibility. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the 'Rat Park' study and its popularized interpretation that drug addiction is primarily caused by poor social environments. He presents historical examples of addiction in seemingly happy or fortunate individuals, such as Ogedei Khan and Native Americans, to challenge this view. The post then discusses the genetic factors in addiction, citing twin studies and known genetic markers. Scott acknowledges that unhappiness likely contributes to drug use but argues that the relationship between environment and addiction is more complex than the Rat Park model suggests. He proposes a toy model where other sources of reward can help resist drug addiction, but maintains that biological interventions like deregulating suboxone and researching psychedelic therapy are more immediately effective for helping addicts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the phenomenon of cost disease, where costs for basic services like education and healthcare have increased dramatically without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of cost disease, where costs for essential services like education, healthcare, and housing have increased significantly over the past few decades without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. He presents data showing how these costs have risen much faster than inflation, while worker salaries in these fields have remained stagnant or even declined. Alexander considers various potential explanations for this phenomenon, including market failures, increased regulation, lawsuit fears, and changing risk tolerance. He argues that this cost disease is a major factor behind many current political and economic debates, and expresses concern about its impact on living standards and economic progress. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links and studies on various topics, from bad statistics and media coverage to technological progress and scientific discoveries, with commentary from Scott Alexander. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, presenting a diverse collection of interesting articles, studies, and developments. The topics range from media coverage and politics, through scientific studies and technological progress, to social developments and cultural phenomena. Scott provides commentary on many of the links, often adding context, questioning methodology, or highlighting interesting implications. The post maintains a mix of serious academic content and lighter cultural observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines tribalism, arguing that ideologies often serve as 'rallying flags' for tribes rather than defining their core identity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of tribalism, arguing that ideologies and beliefs often serve as 'rallying flags' for tribes rather than being the core of what defines them. He examines various examples including religious sects, disability communities, and online subcultures to illustrate how tribes form, develop, and sometimes dissolve. The post suggests that understanding groups as tribes with historical context rather than purely ideological entities can provide insight into many social phenomena and conflicts. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering science, education, politics and culture, with Scott Alexander's commentary and analysis on each. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting articles and studies. Notable topics include: an IQ study predicting US gains, a social site called Omnilibrium trying to improve filtering, FDA allowing 23andMe genetic tests at higher prices, evidence about pre-K education having potentially negative effects, and news about polio eradication. The post also covers topics like genetic engineering in China, studies about police reducing crime, and cultural analysis of urban violence. Many links come with Scott's brief commentary or analysis putting them in context. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander debunks the idea that Trump's supporters are disproportionately white, revealing that Bernie Sanders actually has much whiter support, and uses this to challenge common narratives about race and politics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the media narrative that Donald Trump's supporters are disproportionately white, showing it to be unsupported by polling data. He then reveals that Bernie Sanders, not Trump, has a much higher ratio of white to non-white support within his party. Scott uses this to illustrate two points: 1) 'white' in political discussions often means the 'Red Tribe' rather than literal race, and 2) low minority representation in a group doesn't necessarily indicate racism. He suggests that Sanders' lack of minority support might be due to him being seen as a 'weird intellectual signaling-laden countercultural movement', similar to other groups with low minority representation like atheists or BDSM enthusiasts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting links covering politics, science, history, and culture, with brief commentary on each item. Longer summary

A curated collection of interesting links spanning various topics, compiled by Scott Alexander. The post covers a wide range of subjects including political events, scientific studies, historical anecdotes, and cultural phenomena. Among the notable items are stories about medieval fighting myths, a massive Chinese ghost mall, Japanese parliament members' nationalism, and various statistical studies. The post maintains a light, often humorous tone while presenting these diverse pieces of information, occasionally adding brief commentary or connections between different items. Shorter summary

Scott examines the potential future of online content filtering technology, considering its benefits, drawbacks, and societal implications. Longer summary

This post explores the future of online content filtering technology and its potential implications. Scott begins by describing existing tools like Tumblr Savior and Twitter blockbots, then speculates about more advanced AI-driven filtering systems. He considers three main possibilities: 1) everyone being better off by avoiding trolls, 2) people becoming overly sensitive by never encountering opposing views, and 3) a shift in discourse favoring the powerful over the powerless. The post concludes by suggesting that explicit filtering choices might lead to more thoughtful engagement with opposing views and the formation of separate communities with their own norms. Shorter summary

Scott shares and comments on various interesting links covering science, politics, and curiosities, with particular focus on recent studies in genetics and psychology. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting news and studies from different fields. Topics range from scientific discoveries about probiotics and neurons, to political news about Hillary Clinton and Obamacare, to peculiar historical facts about town names and statistical centers. Scott provides brief commentary on many of the links, expressing particular interest in studies about genetics, social mobility, and cognitive behavioral therapy. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Willpower' by Baumeister and Tierney, finding it disappointing for its pop science approach and failure to address controversies in willpower research. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the book 'Willpower: Rediscovering the Greatest Human Strength' by Roy Baumeister and John Tierney. He expresses disappointment with the book's pop science approach and lack of in-depth exploration of the controversies surrounding willpower research. The review outlines key points from the book, discusses ongoing debates in the field, and presents Scott's own thoughts on how willpower might work. He critiques the book for not addressing important controversies and research challenges in the field of willpower studies. Shorter summary

Ozy Frantz provides a detailed critique of common 'manosphere' beliefs, particularly those of blogger Heartiste, using scientific studies and logical arguments to counter claims about human sexuality and dating. Longer summary

This post is a detailed rebuttal of many common beliefs within the 'manosphere', particularly focusing on the blogger Heartiste. The author, Ozy Frantz, argues against Heartiste's views on human sexual interaction, beauty standards, gender differences, and dating strategies. They provide counterarguments supported by scientific studies and logical reasoning, addressing topics such as physical attractiveness, femininity, sluttiness, and 'game' techniques. The post also touches on issues of evolutionary psychology, societal norms, and the nature of human sexuality. Throughout, Ozy maintains a skeptical stance towards many manosphere claims while acknowledging some gender differences do exist. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander gives a satirical graduation speech questioning the value of formal education and proposing an alternative basic income system, emphasizing kindness and epistemic humility. Longer summary

Scott Alexander delivers a satirical and thought-provoking graduation speech that questions the value of formal education. He compares the conventional path of education and career to an alternative where people receive a basic income instead. The speech critiques the current education system, job market, and societal structures while emphasizing the importance of kindness and epistemic humility. Scott uses humor and irony to challenge graduates' assumptions about their future and the world they're entering. Shorter summary

A monthly links post collecting and commenting on various interesting articles and studies from around the web, ranging from scientific research to philosophy to economics. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting articles and studies from around the web. Topics range from scientific research (like glucosamine effects on lifespan) to economics (like Amazon's employee policies) to philosophy (like debates on free will). Scott provides commentary and analysis on each link, often connecting them to previous discussions or adding his own insights. The post covers a wide variety of subjects including medicine, politics, evolution, and technology, with a mix of serious academic content and more lighthearted items. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines various anti-wheat claims and pro-wheat evidence, concluding that while some concerns exist, current evidence generally supports wheat consumption for most people. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates the claims against wheat consumption, examining various arguments such as gluten sensitivity, intestinal permeability, wheat-derived opiates, connections to autism and schizophrenia, genetic modifications, and leptin resistance. He analyzes scientific studies and expert opinions, finding some claims to be partially true but often exaggerated or of uncertain significance. He also explores pro-wheat arguments, noting strong evidence for whole grain benefits but acknowledging potential confounders. The post concludes that while there are some concerns about wheat, the best evidence currently supports its inclusion in most people's diets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that military interventions can potentially be a cost-effective way to help foreigners, contrary to a Slate article's claim. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a Slate article arguing that military interventions are an expensive way to help foreigners. He argues that comparing interventions to GiveWell's top charities is flawed reasoning, and presents a cost-effectiveness analysis of the 2011 Libya intervention. Using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as a metric, he calculates that the Libya intervention cost about $65 per QALY, which is slightly more cost-effective than donations to the Against Malaria Foundation at $75 per QALY. Scott emphasizes that both figures are extremely low compared to typical healthcare interventions. He concludes that military interventions can potentially be very cost-effective for humanitarian goals, though they come with risks and unpredictable consequences. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a roundup of recent scientific and medical studies, covering topics from hallucinations to obesity genetics to schizophrenia treatment. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various scientific and medical studies and news. It covers a range of topics including hallucinations, diet and longevity, gene-environment interactions in psychiatry, life-extending drugs, fibromyalgia, chemical education, drug company tactics, sleep theories, psychotherapy effectiveness, obesity genetics, and schizophrenia treatment. Scott provides brief summaries and commentary on each item, often with a mix of scientific insight and humor. Shorter summary