A review of 'Great and Desperate Cures' by Elliot Valenstein, which examines the history of lobotomy and psychosurgery, explaining how tens of thousands of patients underwent dangerous brain operations from the 1930s-1950s despite poor evidence of effectiveness. Longer summary

The post reviews 'Great and Desperate Cures' (1986) by psychologist Elliot Valenstein, exploring how lobotomy became widespread despite its horrific consequences. The review details the procedure itself (inserting an ice-pick-like instrument through the eye socket into the brain), then examines six factors Valenstein identifies for its acceptance: desperate patients and families, physician ambition (especially Egas Moniz and Walter Freeman), uncritical acceptance by researchers and media, territorial disputes between medical specialties, and cold economics. The post includes extensive details about key figures, particularly Freeman's aggressive promotion of transorbital lobotomy and his traveling surgery roadshows. It discusses patient outcomes, the lack of theoretical justification, media hype, and the procedure's eventual replacement by psychoactive drugs. The review concludes by reflecting on modern parallels and the tragic story of Howard Dully, lobotomized at age twelve, arguing that while Freeman likely had good intentions, the safeguards that might have prevented such harm were inadequate then and remain concerning today. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes whether whole-body screening MRIs are worth it by doing a detailed cost-benefit calculation, finding they cost about $108,000 per quality-adjusted life-year saved (right around the threshold of cost-effectiveness), and argues that while rich people immune to anxiety might benefit, most people claiming to be rational about medical decisions probably aren't. Longer summary

Scott performs a detailed cost-benefit analysis of whole-body screening MRIs in response to controversy over medical experts recommending against them. Using rough order-of-magnitude estimates, he calculates that screening 1,000 people saves about 32 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at a cost of $2.7 million plus time and anxiety costs, working out to about $108,000 per QALY saved—right at the threshold of cost-effectiveness. He explores whether rich people who don't care about money should get screened, finding a plausible case but with many caveats about unknown factors that could swing the calculation either way. He then applies this analysis to Midjourney's proposed ultrasound scanner, finding it's unlikely to be clearly better than MRI. The post ends with a warning that people who think they're rational enough to ignore false positives are often the same people making irrational medical decisions based on contrarian appeals. Shorter summary

A detailed investigation of the Sun Miracle of Fatima in 1917, where 70,000 people witnessed the sun appear to spin, change colors, and fall to earth, analyzing witness testimonies, skeptical explanations, and similar phenomena at other Marian apparition sites. Longer summary

Scott conducts an extensive investigation into the 1917 Miracle of the Sun at Fatima, where tens of thousands witnessed what appeared to be the sun spinning, changing colors, and falling to earth. He examines approximately 60 primary testimonies, evaluates common skeptical explanations (optical phenomena, weather events, mass hallucination), and documents similar sun miracles at other Marian apparition sites worldwide. Scott then critiques Dalleur's theory about distant witnesses and shadow analysis, explores why more people don't see these phenomena normally, and proposes a tentative materialist explanation involving a rare optical illusion modulated by cloud cover and social priming. The post ends by suggesting research directions for those interested in further investigation. Shorter summary

A review of the synaptic plasticity and memory hypothesis arguing that it is insufficient to explain memory, and proposing a broader cellular processes and memory hypothesis that includes molecular and intracellular mechanisms. Longer summary

The post reviews the synaptic plasticity and memory (SPM) hypothesis, which claims that learning and memory are stored in changes to synaptic weights between neurons. Through several compelling examples, from cannibalism rituals to heart transplant stories and single-cell learning, the author argues that while the SPM hypothesis has been productive, it is incomplete and partially wrong. The post presents evidence that memory can be stored through non-synaptic mechanisms, and proposes an alternative called the cellular processes and memory (CPM) hypothesis, which suggests memory storage involves multiple molecular and intracellular processes beyond just synaptic weights. Shorter summary

The review examines Daniel Everett's 'How Language Began', which challenges Chomsky's linguistic theories and proposes an alternative view of language as a gradual cultural invention. Longer summary

This book review discusses Daniel Everett's 'How Language Began', which challenges Noam Chomsky's dominant theories in linguistics. Everett argues that language emerged gradually over a long period, is primarily for communication, and is not innate but a cultural invention. The review contrasts Everett's views with Chomsky's, detailing Everett's research with the Pirahã people and his alternative theory of language origins. It also touches on the controversy Everett's work has sparked in linguistics and its potential implications for understanding language and AI. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the effectiveness of education by analyzing knowledge retention, questioning the value of schooling beyond basic skills. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the effectiveness of education by examining how much factual knowledge people retain after schooling. He presents survey data showing that many adults, including college students, struggle to recall basic facts taught in school. The post explores why this might be, discussing the Ebbinghaus Forgetting Curve and spaced repetition. Scott proposes that people mainly remember information they encounter regularly in daily life, rather than what they learned in school. He concludes by questioning the usefulness of most schooling beyond basic skills, suggesting that cultural osmosis might be more effective for long-term knowledge retention. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a detailed response to comments and criticisms of his previous post on the COVID-19 origins debate. He addresses arguments against zoonosis, clarifies misunderstandings, and discusses the methodologies used by various parties in the debate. He maintains his position favoring zoonosis over lab leak, while acknowledging the complexity of the issue and the ongoing nature of the debate. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that schizophrenia should be described as predominantly genetic, addressing counterarguments and emphasizing the importance of this perspective for prevention strategies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that it's fair and accurate to describe schizophrenia as predominantly genetic. He responds to various arguments against this characterization, comparing the situation to how we discuss smoking causing lung cancer. Scott emphasizes that while environmental factors play a role, genetic factors account for the majority of variance in schizophrenia risk. He argues that acknowledging the genetic nature of schizophrenia is important for developing effective prevention strategies, such as polygenic screening, rather than focusing solely on hard-to-control environmental factors. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander suggests that studying human fetishes could provide insights into AI alignment challenges, particularly regarding generalization and interpretability. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the idea that fetish research might help understand AI alignment. He draws parallels between evolution's 'alignment' of humans towards reproduction and our attempts to align AI with human values. The post discusses how fetishes represent failures in evolution's alignment strategy, similar to potential AI alignment failures. Scott suggests that studying how humans develop fetishes could provide insights into how AIs might misgeneralize or misalign from intended goals. He proposes several speculative explanations for common fetishes and discusses how these might relate to AI alignment challenges, particularly in terms of generalization and interpretability problems. Shorter summary

Kieran Egan's educational theory proposes rebuilding school curricula around five kinds of understanding to create more engaging and effective learning experiences. Longer summary

This review explores Kieran Egan's educational theory outlined in his book 'The Educated Mind', which proposes a new approach to education based on five kinds of understanding: Somatic, Mythic, Romantic, Philosophic, and Ironic. Egan argues that schools fail because they ignore cognitive tools that have worked for centuries and instead try to balance three incompatible educational goals. He suggests rebuilding the curriculum around these cognitive tools to create more engaging and effective learning experiences. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links and news items from July 2023, covering topics from historical curiosities to current technological and social developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from July 2023. It covers a wide range of topics including historical curiosities, scientific studies, social issues, technological advancements, and current events. The post touches on subjects such as town naming, polyamory research, AI developments, and political decisions. It also includes some humorous and unusual facts, as well as commentary on social and cultural trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander addresses feedback on his post about bisexuality and Long COVID, discussing alternative explanations and defending his methodology. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about the correlation between bisexuality and Long COVID. He addresses alternative explanations, concerns about sample size and methodology, the nature of psychosomatic illness, and various other points raised by readers. Scott maintains that while the association exists in the data, the cause remains uncertain and could be due to various factors including response patterns, biological differences, or a combination of organic and psychosomatic elements. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 40 diverse and intriguing links and news items from September 2022, covering topics from AI advancements to political analysis and cultural observations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of 40 interesting links and news items from September 2022. The topics range from AI developments and their implications, to political analysis, scientific discoveries, and cultural observations. He covers subjects like image generation AI, conspiracy theories, the political situation in South Africa, nuclear power in California, and language models' capabilities. The post also includes personal anecdotes, book reviews, and interesting statistical findings. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates silexan, a lavender-based anxiety supplement, finding promising but potentially biased evidence, and recommends cautious trial use. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the evidence for silexan, a lavender-derived supplement claimed to be highly effective for anxiety. He examines the studies, noting that most are by one researcher with conflicts of interest, but finds the methodology generally sound. He also considers circumstantial evidence, including animal studies and anecdotal reports. While cautioning about the lack of independent research, Scott concludes that silexan is worth trying due to its low risk and potential benefits, and predicts a 50% chance it will prove as effective as SSRIs for anxiety in future independent studies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines obscure pregnancy interventions that may improve child outcomes, rating them by evidence quality and potential impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various obscure pregnancy interventions that could potentially improve child outcomes, particularly IQ. He rates them in tiers based on evidence strength and potential impact, with Tier 1 being most strongly supported. Key interventions discussed include embryo selection, choline supplementation, avoiding stress and certain substances, and optimizing birth timing. He emphasizes these are extreme measures not meant to induce guilt, and that standard pregnancy advice is still most important. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes Ukraine prediction markets, nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares forecasters to experts, along with various updates on prediction platforms. Longer summary

This post discusses recent changes in Ukraine-related prediction markets, analyzes the seemingly monotonic decrease in probabilities of Russian success, explores nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares the performance of forecasters vs. domain experts. Scott also covers various short updates on prediction markets and forecasting platforms. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from scientific studies to cultural phenomena, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and topics. Scott covers a wide range of subjects including scientific studies, cultural phenomena, economic trends, AI developments, and current events. The post includes commentary on each link, often with Scott's personal insights or opinions. Some recurring themes include AI progress, social science research, economic inequality, and cultural shifts. The tone is informative and slightly humorous, with Scott occasionally adding caveats about the reliability of certain claims or studies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews the obscure psychoanalytic book 'Sadly, Porn', attempting to decipher its core ideas about human psychology and society. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Sadly, Porn' by Edward Teach, a complex and obscure psychoanalytic work. He attempts to decipher the book's core ideas about human psychology, desire, and societal structures, while grappling with its intentionally difficult style and controversial claims. The review explores themes of envy, status-seeking, and the modern psyche's relationship with corporations and technology, as well as the book's critique of contemporary politics and culture. Shorter summary

The post examines whether unimproved land value can be accurately assessed separately from buildings, a crucial aspect of Georgist land value taxation. Longer summary

This post explores the feasibility of accurately assessing unimproved land value separately from buildings, a key requirement for implementing Georgist land value taxation. It reviews various modern assessment methods, discusses their accuracy and limitations, and concludes that while not perfect, these methods are likely 'good enough' for practical implementation of land value tax policies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his ivermectin article, discussing criticisms, the worms hypothesis, vaccine skepticism, and journalism quality. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's previous article about ivermectin as a potential COVID-19 treatment. Scott responds to criticisms from ivmmeta.com, discusses the worms hypothesis with various commenters, addresses concerns about the TOGETHER trial, and shares perspectives on vaccine skepticism and journalism quality. He also reflects on his own writing process compared to traditional journalism. Shorter summary

Scott investigates the claim that cold-related deaths account for 10% of global mortality, exploring various factors and potential impacts of global warming on death rates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the surprising claim that cold-related deaths account for nearly 10% of all deaths globally. He investigates various studies and data sources to understand this phenomenon, discussing the differences between cold-related and winter-related deaths, regional variations in mortality rates, and potential mechanisms behind these deaths. The post delves into the complexities of adapting to different climates, the role of influenza in winter mortality, and cardiovascular effects of cold weather. Finally, Scott examines the potential impact of global warming on mortality rates, finding that most scientific analyses predict a net increase in deaths despite the reduction in cold-related mortality. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the current research on Long COVID, analyzing its prevalence, symptoms, and potential impacts to assess personal risk and societal implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the current research on Long COVID, examining its prevalence, symptoms, duration, and impact on different groups. He explores various studies, discusses potential mechanisms, and evaluates the psychosomatic argument. The post concludes with an assessment of personal risk and comparisons to other post-viral syndromes, emphasizing the uncertainties still surrounding Long COVID. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that despite some replication failures, the core of behavioral economics remains valid and valuable, with the field continuing to evolve and refine its understanding of human decision-making. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Jason Hreha's article claiming the 'death of behavioral economics'. He argues that while some studies have failed to replicate, the core insights of behavioral economics remain valid. Scott examines the historical origins of loss aversion, discusses recent debates about its existence, and argues that even small effect sizes can be valuable at scale. He concludes that behavioral economics as a field is generally healthy, continuing to investigate and refine our understanding of human decision-making, though specific paradigms may evolve over time. Shorter summary

Scott examines how scientific research has challenged traditional bodybuilding wisdom about rest periods, questioning the reliability of practical wisdom ('metis') compared to academic studies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the relationship between bodybuilding lore and scientific research, using an article by fitness researcher Menno Henselmans as a starting point. The post examines the traditional bodybuilding wisdom about short rest periods between sets, which was believed to be optimal for muscle growth. Scott then explores how recent scientific studies have contradicted this belief, showing that longer rest periods can be more effective. He uses this example to reflect on the concept of 'metis' (practical wisdom) in bodybuilding communities and its limitations when compared to academic scientific research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the history and mechanism of DNP, a dangerous but effective weight-loss drug, and discusses recent developments in safer mitochondrial uncoupling agents. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses 2,4-dinitrophenol (DNP), a controversial and dangerous weight-loss drug that works by uncoupling mitochondria. He traces its history from the 1930s to modern times, explaining its effectiveness and severe side effects. The post then explores recent developments in mitochondrial uncoupling research, including potential safer alternatives and therapeutic applications beyond weight loss. Shorter summary