A guest post arguing that ratifying the Congressional Apportionment Amendment from the original Bill of Rights would expand the House to 6,641 members and fix Congress by reducing gerrymandering, diluting donor influence, and increasing constituent accountability. Longer summary

This guest post by David Speiser argues for ratifying the Congressional Apportionment Amendment, the only unratified amendment from the original Bill of Rights, which would expand the House of Representatives from 435 to about 6,641 members by setting one representative per 50,000 citizens. The post explains how Congress's current dysfunction stems from gerrymandering, money in politics, and polarization, and argues that a much larger House would ameliorate these problems by making districts smaller and harder to gerrymander, diluting the influence of big donors, and forcing representatives to be more accountable to local constituents. The amendment has already been ratified by 11 states and needs 27 more, avoiding the problem that most Congressional reforms require Congressional approval. The post acknowledges a typo in the amendment's wording that could force an interesting legal battle between textualism and originalism, and ends with a pitch to state legislators explaining why both parties should support ratification. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents 51 links covering AI progress and safety, political developments, scientific research, cultural oddities, and ongoing philosophical debates about miracles and education reform. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares 51 links covering diverse topics including AI developments (agents, safety, consciousness research), political news (Ukraine policy, UK politics, Trump administration), science updates (climate predictions, genetics, bacteriophages), cultural curiosities (Shakespeare superfan plastic surgery, Soviet naming conventions, flag cones), health research (Alzheimer's prevention, shingles vaccine reducing dementia, kidney donation), and philosophical debates (Hume's argument against miracles, the Fatima miracle discussion). The post maintains Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and quirky observations, touching on everything from Bach's descendants in Oklahoma to the mystery of why AI still struggles with laundry folding despite mastering protein folding. Shorter summary

The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications. Longer summary

This post discusses the intense atmosphere surrounding Election Day in the United States, comparing it to historical spectacles and highlighting the emotional and psychological impact on the population. It then delves into prediction markets and forecasting, particularly focusing on recent events in Polymarket where a large bet by a single individual caused significant market movements. The post also covers legal developments regarding prediction markets, discusses various election-related predictions, and concludes with a poetic reflection on Election Day. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reports on the Progress Studies Conference, discussing advances in energy, AI, housing policy, and other fields, with an overall optimistic tone about recent developments and potential for future progress. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience at the Progress Studies Conference, which focused on various technological and social advancements. The conference covered topics such as energy (particularly solar and nuclear power), politics and regulation, AI, YIMBY movement, self-driving cars, and other areas of potential progress. The overall mood was optimistic about recent developments in these fields, with many speakers highlighting how regulatory changes could accelerate progress. Scott notes that while the conference itself may not be directly responsible for recent advances, it reflects a growing awareness of the importance of technological progress and the need to address regulatory barriers. Shorter summary

This review examines the importance of Silver Age Marvel Comics (1961-1965) as modern mythology, discussing their innovations and impact on comic book history. Longer summary

This review explores the significance of Silver Age Marvel Comics (1961-1965), discussing their role as modern mythology, their innovations in storytelling and character creation, and their impact on comic book history. The author analyzes Stan Lee's contributions, the Marvel Method of comic creation, and the establishment of the interconnected Marvel Universe, while also acknowledging the era's limitations in terms of gender representation and storytelling complexity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the surprisingly broad effects of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, exploring their mechanisms and speculating on why they seem to impact so many different conditions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the wide-ranging effects of GLP-1 receptor agonist medications like Ozempic, which are approved for diabetes and obesity but show promise for many other conditions. He delves into the mechanisms behind their effects on diabetes, weight loss, and addiction, speculating on why these drugs seem to have such broad impacts. The post discusses how GLP-1 drugs work in the brain to reduce hunger and dampen reward systems, potentially explaining their effects on addiction. Scott also touches on their anti-inflammatory properties and potential benefits for neurodegenerative diseases, while cautioning that some reported effects may not replicate. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against conservatives adopting cancel culture tactics, presenting practical reasons why this approach would be counterproductive and harmful. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the recent debate among conservatives about whether to adopt cancel culture tactics against their opponents. He argues against this approach, presenting several practical considerations. These include the ineffectiveness of persecution in teaching lessons, the historical context of cancel culture, the similarity between left and right attitudes, the prevalence of friendly fire in cancellations, the negative impact on competence and institutions, and the strategic downsides for conservatives. Scott suggests alternative approaches to addressing cancel culture, emphasizing the need for principled and incremental progress. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander refines his thoughts on tradition formation, proposing a three-part model that emphasizes the success of practical actions and those tied to tradition. Longer summary

Scott Alexander clarifies his previous post on tradition, proposing a three-part model for understanding the creation of traditions and rituals. He suggests that both purely practical actions and those tied to sacredness or tradition can evolve into valuable aesthetics, rituals, or communities. However, attempts to create these elements without reference to practicality or tradition tend to be less successful. Scott uses examples from architecture, Jewish wedding customs, and Halloween traditions to illustrate his points. Shorter summary

The review examines Yukichi Fukuzawa's autobiography, highlighting his role in modernizing Japan and his humorous, insightful account of 19th century Japanese society. Longer summary

This review discusses the autobiography of Yukichi Fukuzawa, a prominent figure in 19th century Japan whose face appears on the ¥10,000 note. The reviewer describes Fukuzawa's life, from his childhood as a low-ranking samurai to his role in modernizing Japan during the Meiji Restoration. The autobiography is praised for its humor and insights into Japanese society during a time of great change. Fukuzawa's experiences learning Dutch and English, his travels abroad, and his efforts to spread Western knowledge in Japan are highlighted. The review concludes by considering how Fukuzawa's approach to cultural arbitrage might be applied to addressing Japan's current challenges. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. He discusses the CFTC's move to further restrict prediction markets, Manifold Markets' pivot to a sweepstakes model, a superforecasting report on COVID-19 origins, and debates about the future and value of forecasting. The post also covers various prediction market probabilities on current events and links to other forecasting news. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical presidential platform with outlandish and humorous policy proposals, critiquing various aspects of American politics and society. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical presidential platform with outlandish and humorous policy proposals. The post covers a range of topics including naval supremacy, sovereign citizens, climate change, military service, Supreme Court appointments, education, internet privacy, and cultural issues. Each proposal is presented with a mix of historical references, current events, and absurd logic, creating a comedic critique of American politics and society. Shorter summary

Scott explores the recent British economic decline, examining various statistics and theories about its causes and impact. Longer summary

This post discusses the recent economic decline in Britain, analyzing various statistics and theories about its causes. Scott examines GDP data, productivity trends, wage stagnation, and currency value changes, while considering factors like Brexit, real estate market issues, and R&D investment. He presents different perspectives from commenters and experts, highlighting the complexity of the situation and the difficulty in pinpointing exact causes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the unexpectedly high prevalence of joint hypermobility in transgender individuals, exploring various theories and presenting survey data on the phenomenon. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the puzzling connection between transgender identity and hypermobile joints, particularly Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (EDS). He presents four theories to explain this correlation: 1) It's a spurious result due to 'Instagrammable' conditions clustering together, 2) Estrogen effects on joints in trans women, 3) Genetic link between gender divergence and joint issues, and 4) Autism as a shared causative factor. Scott favors a theory linking proprioception issues to different reasoning styles, potentially leading to both autism and transgender identity. He presents data from his own survey showing higher rates of joint issues in trans respondents, though with some limitations. The post concludes with plans for further investigation in future surveys. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 49 links and brief commentaries on various topics, ranging from cultured meat to AI developments and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 49 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, including cultured meat, government policies, scientific studies, historical anecdotes, AI developments, and current events. The author, Scott Alexander, provides his thoughts and observations on each item, often with a mix of humor, skepticism, and analysis. The links cover a wide range of subjects from technology and economics to politics and culture, reflecting the broad interests of the blog's readership. Shorter summary

Scott reviews David Brooks' thesis on how a 1950s change in Ivy League admissions policy reshaped American elite culture and society. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the first sixth of David Brooks' book 'Bobos In Paradise', focusing on Brooks' thesis that a change in Harvard's admissions policy in the 1950s led to the replacement of the old WASP aristocracy with a new meritocratic elite. This shift had far-reaching consequences for American culture, values, and social trends. Scott explores how this theory might explain various phenomena, from changes in architecture to political polarization, and considers its implications for understanding modern elites and social dynamics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Will MacAskill's 'What We Owe The Future', a book arguing for longtermism and considering our moral obligations to future generations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Will MacAskill's book 'What We Owe The Future', which argues for longtermism - the idea that we should prioritize helping future generations. The review covers the book's key arguments about moral obligations to future people, ways to affect the long-term future, and population ethics dilemmas. Scott expresses some skepticism about aspects of longtermism and population ethics, but acknowledges the book's thought-provoking ideas and practical suggestions for having positive long-term impact. Shorter summary

A review of Guy Debord's 'The Society of the Spectacle', examining its critique of capitalism and mass media, and relating its ideas to modern issues. Longer summary

This review examines Guy Debord's 'The Society of the Spectacle', a Marxist critique of capitalism and mass media. The reviewer summarizes Debord's key ideas about how spectacle dominates modern society, commodifies all aspects of life, and creates a false reality. The review also covers Debord's later comments on the book, relating his ideas to current issues like social media, fake news, and information warfare. While acknowledging the book's insights, the reviewer ultimately takes a more moderate stance on capitalism and technology's impacts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents evidence that the 2020 US homicide spike was caused by Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that the 2020 homicide spike in the US was primarily caused by the Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. He presents evidence on timing, demographics, police pullback, and comparisons with other countries and previous protests to support his claim. The post criticizes media coverage for attributing the spike to complex factors or the pandemic, suggesting a bias in reporting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting, including monkeypox predictions, updates on the Ukraine-Russia war, AI development forecasts, Elon Musk's potential Twitter acquisition, and various political predictions. Scott discusses Metaculus predictions for monkeypox cases, analyzes forecasts for the Ukraine conflict, examines AI capability predictions in response to a bet between Elon Musk and Gary Marcus, and reviews predictions for US elections and other current events. The post also includes updates on prediction market platforms and recent articles about forecasting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a book comparing international healthcare systems, finding it informative but lacking in explaining why some systems succeed while others fail. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Which Country Has The World's Best Health Care?' by Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, a book comparing healthcare systems across 11 countries. The book categorizes systems into five types, from fully socialized to mostly privatized. Emanuel reluctantly concludes that Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Taiwan have the best systems. Scott finds the book informative but criticizes its organization and limited scope. He expresses confusion about why some systems work better than others, particularly regarding drug pricing and budget setting. The review highlights the complexity of healthcare economics and the difficulty in understanding why the US system performs poorly compared to seemingly similar systems in other countries. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses reader responses to his review of Viktor Orban's leadership in Hungary, exploring debates around authoritarianism, democracy, and effective governance. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his review of Viktor Orban's governance in Hungary. Key points include debates over whether Orban qualifies as a dictator, comparisons to other political leaders, analysis of Hungary's electoral system and immigration policies, and reflections on the tradeoffs between decisive governance and maintaining democratic safeguards. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the current research on Long COVID, analyzing its prevalence, symptoms, and potential impacts to assess personal risk and societal implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the current research on Long COVID, examining its prevalence, symptoms, duration, and impact on different groups. He explores various studies, discusses potential mechanisms, and evaluates the psychosomatic argument. The post concludes with an assessment of personal risk and comparisons to other post-viral syndromes, emphasizing the uncertainties still surrounding Long COVID. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews comments on his posts about aducanumab and the FDA, acknowledging some mistakes while defending his overall critique of FDA conservatism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews comments on his recent posts about aducanumab and the FDA. He acknowledges some mistakes in his original post, but defends his overall critique of the FDA as overly conservative. The comments cover various aspects of drug approval, including the aducanumab controversy, surrogate endpoints, the FDA's impact on small biotech companies, and comparisons to other regulatory systems. Scott reflects on how to improve his fact-checking process while still writing passionate pieces. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the FDA is too strict, not too lax, and proposes unbundling FDA approval to allow for more nuanced drug regulation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes an Atlantic article that argues for stricter FDA standards following the approval of aducanumab, an Alzheimer's drug with questionable efficacy. He contends that the FDA is already too strict, citing examples like the delayed approval of COVID-19 tests and vaccines. Scott argues that the FDA's excessive caution has likely cost many lives. He proposes unbundling FDA approval into separate decisions about legality, insurance coverage, and the FDA's endorsement level. This would allow for more nuanced approvals and potentially reduce costly mistakes while still permitting access to promising treatments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to reader comments on his culture wars article, addressing various topics including 4chan history, transgender issues, feminism, dating apps, and internet censorship. Longer summary

This post highlights various comments on Scott's previous article about online culture wars. It covers topics such as the history of 4chan, the role of transgender issues in culture wars, the decline of feminism discourse, the impact of dating apps on social interactions, internet censorship, and the evolution of online movements. Scott responds to these comments, often agreeing with some points while remaining skeptical of others. He also reflects on how his own perspective might be limited by his age and experiences. Shorter summary