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130 posts found
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May 26, 2026
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Use AI This Election

22 min • 3,392 words • 278 comments • 286 likes • podcast (22 min)
Scott uses Claude AI to help research California primary races and finds its tailored candidate analyses and recommendations align well with his eventual voting choices, suggesting AI advisors could improve democratic participation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander demonstrates how he used Claude AI to help research and make decisions for local California primary elections. He shares detailed examples of Claude's analysis of candidates and ballot measures, showing how the AI provided comprehensive summaries of candidates' positions, backgrounds, and endorsements tailored to his stated political preferences (centrist liberal, YIMBY, abundance-oriented). He tested Claude's recommendations against his own eventual choices across 10 races, finding strong agreement (5 perfect matches, 3 second-choices). Scott concludes that AI voting advisors could be valuable both for people who don't have time for deep research and for enhancing the research of those who do, and suggests this could be important for democratic decision-making in a post-AGI future. Shorter summary
Apr 23, 2026
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Links For April 2026

53 min • 8,070 words • 588 comments • 272 likes • podcast (47 min)
Scott Alexander's April 2026 links roundup covers diverse topics including Venn diagram complexity, flag desecration laws, AI developments, political analysis, scientific studies, and various cultural curiosities. Longer summary
This monthly links post compiles interesting articles, studies, and observations from across the internet in April 2026. Major themes include AI progress and policy (including discussions of AI alignment, capabilities, and regulation), political developments (Trump administration actions, election analysis), scientific findings (from evolutionary psychology to medical treatments), and various cultural oddities. Scott provides brief commentary on each link while noting that he hasn't independently verified all claims and that commenters typically find errors in a few links per post. Shorter summary
Jan 13, 2026
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Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls

42 min • 6,449 words • 247 comments • 211 likes • podcast (36 min)
Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines the current state of prediction markets after their recent explosion in popularity, noting that while volume has grown from millions to billions per month, most of it comes from sports betting rather than the epistemic improvement he'd hoped for. He explores several problems: markets aren't asking the most important questions society needs answered; resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucking") create controversy; and there are concerns about insider trading and manipulation. He proposes solutions including a novel approach to conditional markets and suggests two paths forward: either creating user-generated, subjectively-resolved real-money markets (the "Siskind Cube"), or accepting that prediction markets' main value may be as training data for AI forecasters that could make the markets themselves obsolete by late 2026. Shorter summary
Oct 24, 2025
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Highlights From The Comments On Fatima

146 min • 22,516 words • 364 comments • 156 likes • podcast (119 min)
Scott explores reader responses to his Fatima miracle post, finding the most promising explanation in Buddhist fire kasina meditation practices that produce similar visual phenomena, while remaining uncertain about how 70,000 untrained people could achieve advanced meditative states instantly. Longer summary
Scott discusses reader responses to his previous post about the Fatima sun miracle, exploring new theories and evidence. The most promising explanation connects the phenomenon to 'fire kasina' meditation, a Buddhist practice of staring at bright lights that produces similar visual effects including spinning, color changes, and complex imagery. He examines the parallel case of Iranians seeing Ayatollah Khomeini's face in the moon in 1978, analyzes various videos of modern sun miracles (concluding they're camera artifacts), interviews a Medjugorje witness, and engages with Ethan Muse's counterarguments about the miracle being an objective phenomenon. Scott also addresses philosophical questions about miracles and Bayesian reasoning, ultimately remaining uncertain but slightly less confused than before, with fire kasina providing the best but still imperfect explanation. Shorter summary
Jul 03, 2025
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Highlights From The Comments On Missing Heritability

66 min • 10,199 words • 134 comments • 94 likes • podcast (61 min)
Scott Alexander responds to comments and criticism on his earlier post about 'Missing Heritability', discussing issues like gene-environment interactions, sequencing technology limitations, and the use of polygenic scores across ancestry groups. Longer summary
This post compiles and responds to notable comments on Scott's earlier post about 'Missing Heritability'. The post is structured in four sections, starting with responses from experts named in the original post, particularly Sasha Gusev who critiques the treatment of gene-environment interactions and cross-population polygenic scores. The second section features detailed technical comments from knowledgeable readers about topics like genetic interactions and sequencing technology limitations. The third section addresses specific corrections to the original post, while the final section covers various other interesting comments and discussions. Throughout, Scott engages with the criticisms and new perspectives while maintaining his original position on most key points. Shorter summary
May 29, 2025
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Sorry, I Still Think MR Is Wrong About USAID

31 min • 4,651 words • 555 comments • 559 likes • podcast (28 min)
Scott Alexander responds to Tyler Cowen about USAID funding, correcting his own previous claims about overhead costs while maintaining that Cowen's criticism of USAID was misleading and potentially harmful. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to Tyler Cowen's criticism of his previous post about USAID funding. He addresses several points: whether Cowen endorsed Rubio's claims about USAID waste, the true nature of overhead costs in USAID-funded organizations, and the broader debate about foreign aid effectiveness. Scott shows that actual administrative overhead in major USAID partners like Catholic Relief Services is much lower than previously thought (around 6-7% rather than 30%), admits his mistake on this point, but maintains his criticism of Cowen's original post as misleading. He argues that USAID's work is predominantly focused on essential humanitarian aid rather than wasteful programs. Shorter summary
Feb 27, 2025
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Links For February 2025

45 min • 6,840 words • 933 comments • 212 likes • podcast (43 min)
Scott shares 50 diverse links covering topics from AI developments to policy changes, with commentary on current events, research findings, and societal trends. Longer summary
In this monthly links roundup, Scott Alexander covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, public policy changes, scientific research, and current events. The post follows a numbered format presenting each item with Scott's characteristic analysis and often humorous commentary. Notable topics include AI safety developments, changes in government policy, climate change updates, and various social and technological trends. The tone alternates between analytical and personal reflection, particularly when discussing potentially concerning political developments. Shorter summary
Feb 21, 2025
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Highlights From The Comments On Tegmark's Mathematical Universe

40 min • 6,150 words • 569 comments • 110 likes • podcast (37 min)
Scott responds to comments and criticisms of his post about Tegmark's Mathematical Universe Hypothesis and its implications for arguments about God's existence, addressing technical points about Boltzmann brains, simplicity measures, and philosophical objections. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews and responds to comments on his previous post about Tegmark's Mathematical Universe Hypothesis. He addresses technical criticisms about Boltzmann brains and probability measures, explains why the theory requires simplicity weighting, and defends his claim that it defeats many arguments for God's existence. He engages with philosophical objections about falsifiability and originality, arguing that falsifiability is not the only way to evaluate theories and dismissing claims that the ideas are just reinventing ancient philosophy. Shorter summary
Feb 07, 2025
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1DaySooner's Trump II Health Policy Proposals

13 min • 1,950 words • 269 comments • 234 likes • podcast (12 min)
Scott Alexander and 1DaySooner outline potential positive health policy initiatives that could emerge under three key Trump administration health appointees: Jim O'Neill, Marty Makary, and Jay Bhattacharya. Longer summary
This post discusses potential health policy proposals under a hypothetical second Trump administration, focusing on three key appointees and their possible initiatives. The piece examines Jim O'Neill as Deputy Secretary of HHS, highlighting his potential work on organ donation compensation and longevity research; Marty Makary as FDA Commissioner, discussing FDA transparency and regulatory improvements; and Jay Bhattacharya as NIH Director, exploring research funding reforms and challenge trials. Written in collaboration with 1DaySooner, the post specifically focuses on optimistic scenarios that could emerge from these appointments. Shorter summary
Jan 17, 2025
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Links For January 2025

35 min • 5,422 words • 875 comments • 236 likes • podcast (32 min)
Scott shares various interesting links and news items from January 2025, covering topics from AI development and politics to historical curiosities and economic trends. Longer summary
This links post covers a wide array of topics from January 2025, with Scott providing commentary and analysis on each. The links include discussions about running for Congress, AI development and safety, dating advice, psychiatric diagnoses, and various economic and technological developments. Scott often adds his own insights and sometimes skepticism to the claims being discussed. The post also includes several historical curiosities and social observations, maintaining a mix of serious analysis and lighter interesting facts. Shorter summary
Nov 01, 2024
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Links For November 2024

42 min • 6,373 words • 932 comments • 216 likes • podcast (41 min)
A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena. Longer summary
This post is a compilation of various news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, technological advancements, cultural phenomena, and historical anecdotes. The post is structured as a numbered list, with each item briefly summarizing a piece of news or information. Some notable items include a new schizophrenia drug approval, YouGov polling results on various historical figures, findings on genetic IQ changes over time, and updates on AI technology and its implications. Shorter summary
Sep 12, 2024
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Links For September 2024

32 min • 4,892 words • 990 comments • 215 likes • podcast (29 min)
A compilation of 50 diverse news items and links from September 2024, covering topics from politics and economics to science and technology. Longer summary
This post is a compilation of 50 diverse links and news items from September 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including politics, science, technology, economics, and social issues. Some notable items include discussions on kidney donation compensation, personality genetics, fertility rates in Israel, drug decriminalization in Oregon, AI regulation in California, and various political and economic analyses. The post also includes commentary on recent studies, books, and social phenomena. Shorter summary
Sep 05, 2024
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Highlights From The Comments On "Sorry You Feel That Way"

9 min • 1,378 words • 274 comments • 141 likes • podcast (8 min)
Scott discusses various interpretations and uses of 'sorry' in response to comments on his previous article about the phrase 'I'm sorry you feel that way'. Longer summary
This post highlights comments on Scott's previous article about the phrase 'I'm sorry you feel that way'. It explores various perspectives on the use and interpretation of 'sorry', including its etymological roots and cultural shifts in understanding. Scott discusses the challenges of finding alternative phrases, the potential generational gap in interpreting 'sorry', and the concept of 'hyperstitious slur cascade'. He also reflects on the difficulties of crafting socially acceptable alternatives and the nuances of apologizing without admitting fault. Shorter summary
Aug 08, 2024
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Highlights From The Comments On Nietzsche

99 min • 15,205 words • 236 comments • 138 likes • podcast (81 min)
Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his article about Matt Yglesias and Nietzschean philosophy, exploring various perspectives on master and slave morality. Longer summary
This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's article about Matt Yglesias and Nietzschean philosophy. It covers various perspectives on master and slave morality, critiques of different thinkers mentioned in the original post, and other related topics. The comments explore nuances in Nietzsche's philosophy, discuss the applicability of these concepts to modern society, and debate the merits of different moral frameworks. Shorter summary
Jul 30, 2024
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Matt Yglesias Considered As The Nietzschean Superman

77 min • 11,870 words • 1,034 comments • 999 likes • podcast (73 min)
Scott Alexander examines Nietzsche's concepts of 'master morality' and 'slave morality', analyzing their modern manifestations and exploring potential compromises between these opposing moral frameworks. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the concepts of 'master morality' and 'slave morality' introduced by Nietzsche, analyzing their manifestations in modern society and various ideologies. He discusses how these moral frameworks are reflected in figures like Ayn Rand, Andrew Tate, and Matt Yglesias, as well as in movements like effective altruism. The post examines the tensions between these moral systems and attempts to find a balance or transcendence of the dichotomy, ultimately suggesting that a cyclical, civilization-building approach might offer a meaningful compromise. Shorter summary
Jul 24, 2024
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Links for July 2024

21 min • 3,173 words • 934 comments • 180 likes • podcast (20 min)
Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 41 links and news items, covering topics from science and politics to history and technology, with brief commentaries and insights. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 41 diverse links and news items covering a wide range of topics. The items include scientific studies, political developments, historical anecdotes, technological advancements, and cultural phenomena. Scott Alexander presents these with brief commentaries, often adding his own insights or expressing skepticism about certain claims. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott pointing out interesting connections or implications of the information presented. Shorter summary
May 28, 2024
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What Is Going On In IFS?

11 min • 1,688 words • 193 comments • 93 likes • podcast (10 min)
Scott Alexander explores conflicting descriptions of Internal Family Systems therapy, questioning whether it involves trance-like states and real internal entities or more mundane visualization techniques. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the confusion surrounding Internal Family Systems (IFS) therapy, particularly regarding the nature of the 'parts' or entities encountered during sessions. He contrasts his understanding from a book review, which suggested a trance-like state where patients discover real internal entities, with feedback from IFS therapists who claim this description is exaggerated. Scott explores various perspectives, including quotes from therapists and a book on IFS, trying to reconcile these different views and understand how IFS actually works. Shorter summary
Apr 16, 2024
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Updates on Lumina Probiotic

12 min • 1,707 words • 160 comments • 156 likes • podcast (11 min)
Scott Alexander updates on Lumina probiotic, discussing FDA trials, effectiveness, potential risks, and his nuanced stance on the product. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides updates on Lumina, a genetically modified anti-tooth-decay bacterium. He clarifies information about FDA testing, discusses rat trial results, reports on recent colonization studies, addresses potential side effects, and shares some anecdotal results. Scott also explains his stance on Lumina, emphasizing that while he sees potential benefits, he doesn't fully endorse it and acknowledges the uncertainties and risks involved. Shorter summary
Apr 09, 2024
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Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate

119 min • 18,355 words • 694 comments • 128 likes • podcast (99 min)
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides a detailed response to comments and criticisms of his previous post on the COVID-19 origins debate. He addresses arguments against zoonosis, clarifies misunderstandings, and discusses the methodologies used by various parties in the debate. He maintains his position favoring zoonosis over lab leak, while acknowledging the complexity of the issue and the ongoing nature of the debate. Shorter summary
Apr 04, 2024
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Links For April 2024

20 min • 3,065 words • 719 comments • 127 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott Alexander presents a curated list of 31 diverse links and news items, covering topics from politics and science to cultural phenomena and AI developments. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 31 diverse links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. The topics range from unusual political titles and daylight savings time to AI-generated music albums and controversial scientific claims. Scott covers various subjects including community building, political disputes, cultural phenomena, and scientific developments. The post maintains a mix of serious commentary and humorous observations, touching on topics like the ACLU's labor dispute, a full-scale Tower of Babel replica, and claims about increasing IQ. It also includes updates from ACX grantees and discussions on urban planning and noise pollution. Shorter summary
Mar 28, 2024
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Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate

118 min • 18,207 words • 905 comments • 369 likes • podcast (95 min)
Scott Alexander reviews a $100,000 debate on COVID-19 origins, where the zoonotic hypothesis unexpectedly won against the lab leak theory. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews a debate on the origins of COVID-19 between Saar Wilf, who supports the lab leak hypothesis, and Peter Miller, who argues for zoonotic origin. The debate was part of a $100,000 challenge by Wilf's Rootclaim project. Miller won decisively, with both judges ruling in favor of zoonotic origin. Alexander analyzes the debate format, arguments, and aftermath, discussing issues with Bayesian reasoning, extreme probabilities, and the challenges of resolving complex scientific questions through debate. Shorter summary
Jan 30, 2024
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Mantic Monday 1/29/24

19 min • 2,887 words • 228 comments • 77 likes • podcast (19 min)
The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting. Longer summary
This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by examining a claim that prediction markets have an 'election problem', showing that real-money markets performed poorly in recent elections. The author then analyzes current polls and prediction markets for the 2024 US presidential election, noting discrepancies between different platforms. The post also explores a forecasting experiment on AI futures, and reviews several other prediction markets on current events. Finally, it includes short links to other forecasting-related news and reflections. Shorter summary
Jan 18, 2024
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Links For January 2024

23 min • 3,526 words • 472 comments • 193 likes • podcast (20 min)
Scott Alexander's monthly links post covers diverse topics from AI developments and genetic research to historical anecdotes and local news, with a mix of serious analysis and humor. Longer summary
This links post covers a wide range of topics, including recent research on the Flynn Effect, factors influencing fertility rates, genetic engineering, AI developments, political issues, historical anecdotes, and local Bay Area news. Scott highlights interesting studies, cultural phenomena, and recent events, often with a humorous or ironic tone. He touches on subjects like universal basic income experiments, the formation of elite groups, and changes in political dynamics. The post also includes several visual elements like unusual architectural designs and tattoos. Shorter summary
Jan 11, 2024
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Highlights From The Comments On Capitalism & Charity

37 min • 5,649 words • 414 comments • 100 likes • podcast (31 min)
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his capitalism vs charity post, clarifying his argument and addressing various counterpoints and suggested capitalist charities. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about capitalism and charity. He clarifies that he's discussing a specific near-mode situation of how to best use a limited amount of money for improving human welfare, not running a 'Moral Worth Tournament' between capitalism and charity. He addresses arguments for investing in capitalism over charity, discussing issues like compounding returns, marginal utility, and the eventual need for consumption. Scott also explores specific capitalist charities suggested by commenters, including charter cities and microfinance, noting the lack of strong empirical evidence for many of these interventions. He concludes by stating what kind of evidence would change his mind on this topic. Shorter summary
Nov 03, 2023
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Quests And Requests

27 min • 4,106 words • 537 comments • 127 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander proposes various project ideas for ACX Grants, ranging from scientific research to social initiatives, and encourages readers to pursue them. Longer summary
Scott Alexander proposes several project ideas for the upcoming ACX Grants round. These range from replicating brain entrainment learning results to creating an open-source polygenic score for educational attainment. Other suggestions include campaigns similar to John Green's anti-tuberculosis effort, a novel approach to language teaching, an automatic Implicit Association Test generator, a new dating site concept, a foundation to promote classical art and architecture, and a primer on political change. Scott encourages readers to take on these projects, offering potential publicity and connections to funders. Shorter summary
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