Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the current state of prediction markets after their recent explosion in popularity, noting that while volume has grown from millions to billions per month, most of it comes from sports betting rather than the epistemic improvement he'd hoped for. He explores several problems: markets aren't asking the most important questions society needs answered; resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucking") create controversy; and there are concerns about insider trading and manipulation. He proposes solutions including a novel approach to conditional markets and suggests two paths forward: either creating user-generated, subjectively-resolved real-money markets (the "Siskind Cube"), or accepting that prediction markets' main value may be as training data for AI forecasters that could make the markets themselves obsolete by late 2026. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of various news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, technological advancements, cultural phenomena, and historical anecdotes. The post is structured as a numbered list, with each item briefly summarizing a piece of news or information. Some notable items include a new schizophrenia drug approval, YouGov polling results on various historical figures, findings on genetic IQ changes over time, and updates on AI technology and its implications. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'The Origins of Woke', finding its critique of civil rights law informative but skeptical of its claim that such laws caused wokeness. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Richard Hanania's book 'The Origins of Woke', which argues that civil rights law is the source of modern woke culture. The book provides a critical overview of civil rights legislation, focusing on affirmative action, disparate impact, and harassment law. While Scott finds the critique of civil rights law informative, he is skeptical of the book's central claim that this legislation is the primary cause of wokeness. He notes that the book fails to explain the recent surge in woke culture and omits discussion of other potential factors. Scott suggests the book may be primarily aimed at influencing conservative policymakers rather than providing a comprehensive academic analysis. Shorter summary

Anna Schaffner's 'Exhaustion: A History' traces explanations for chronic fatigue from ancient times to modern Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, showing how they reflect contemporary cultural and scientific ideas. Longer summary

The book 'Exhaustion: A History' by Anna Schaffner explores the concept of chronic, pathological exhaustion throughout Western history. It traces various explanatory models used in science and culture, from ancient humoral theory to modern conceptions of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS). The author argues that while the symptoms have remained consistent, the explanations for exhaustion have changed over time, reflecting contemporary cultural and scientific ideas. The book covers religious, moral, sexual, and medical explanations, culminating in the current debates surrounding CFS and its controversial status in modern medicine. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores new data on birth order effects among his blog readers, finding social factors likely explain firstborns' overrepresentation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander revisits the birth order effect he discovered in his blog readership in 2018, presenting new data from a 2020 survey. He confirms the original findings that firstborns are overrepresented among his readers, especially when age gaps between siblings are small. The post explores potential explanations, concluding that social factors, particularly parental attention, likely play a larger role than biological factors. This challenges some established views on the impact of early childhood experiences on adult outcomes. Scott acknowledges limitations in his analysis and calls for further research to better understand these effects. Shorter summary

Lars Doucet presents evidence that land is still a major economic factor in modern times, contrary to some economists' claims. Longer summary

This post, written by Lars Doucet, is the first in a series examining the empirical basis for Georgism. It focuses on whether land is still a significant economic factor in modern times, as some economists argue it isn't. Doucet presents evidence that land is indeed a major economic factor, showing that it represents a large portion of urban real estate value, bank loans, personal assets, and government revenue potential. He also demonstrates that land ownership is highly concentrated among the wealthy, contributing to economic inequality. The post concludes that land is a 'really big deal' in modern economies, contrary to some economists' claims. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews several model city projects, analyzing their feasibility and unique challenges with a mix of skepticism and interest. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses several model city projects, including Telosa (a planned Georgist utopia in the American desert), Prospera (a libertarian charter city in Honduras), Auroville (an existing spiritual community in India), and other related developments. He analyzes the feasibility, challenges, and unique aspects of each project, often with a skeptical but open-minded perspective. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that Jewish overachievement is real and deserves continued study, countering Noah Smith's attempt to downplay its significance. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Noah Smith's article questioning whether Jews are really disproportionately successful. Scott argues that Jewish success is real and not fully explained by selective immigration or other factors Noah proposed. He examines historical evidence on Jewish immigration, compares Jewish achievement to urbanization rates, and discusses data on Jewish success in various fields. Scott concludes that Jewish overachievement remains an interesting and important phenomenon to study, potentially offering insights into genetics or cultural factors that could be broadly beneficial if understood. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander humorously analyzes 'My Immortal' as an alchemical allegory, combining medieval alchemy, Rosicrucian writings, and Goethe's Faust. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical analysis of the infamous Harry Potter fanfiction 'My Immortal', arguing that it is actually a complex alchemical allegory combining medieval alchemy, Rosicrucian writings, and Goethe's Faust. He breaks down the story's structure, characters, and symbolism, drawing parallels to alchemical stages and concepts. The post is written in a tongue-in-cheek manner, mimicking academic literary analysis while applied to a notoriously bad piece of writing. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates on coronavirus trends, discusses various pandemic-related topics, and analyzes different countries' responses and policy proposals. Longer summary

This blog post provides updates on various aspects of the coronavirus pandemic. It discusses the slowing growth rate of cases in many countries, the challenges of mail-in voting in the US, charity efforts, how different countries are responding to the crisis, economic analyses of lockdowns, some positive developments in the US response, and various other coronavirus-related topics. The post maintains a speculative and analytical tone, examining different perspectives on issues like immunity certificates, expert predictions, and controversies around ventilator donations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Toby Ord's 'The Precipice', a book about existential risks to humanity, noting Ord's careful analysis and surprisingly low risk estimates while emphasizing the importance of addressing these risks. Longer summary

This book review discusses Toby Ord's 'The Precipice', which examines existential risks to humanity. The review outlines Ord's arguments for taking these risks seriously, his analysis of specific risks like nuclear war and AI, and his recommendations for addressing them. The reviewer notes Ord's careful statistical reasoning and surprisingly low risk estimates for many scenarios, while still emphasizing the overall importance of mitigating existential risks. The review concludes by reflecting on Ord's perspective and the appropriate response to even seemingly small risks of human extinction. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including strategies, mysteries, controversies, and global impacts. Longer summary

This blog post discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the 'hammer and dance' strategy, smoking cessation, mysteries surrounding Japan's low case numbers, takeout food safety, ventilator numbers, the UK's policy reversal, density and infection rates, hydroxychloroquine controversy, concerns about developing countries, donation opportunities, cost-benefit analysis of lockdowns, US stimulus bill negotiations, and media coverage of the pandemic across the political spectrum. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews John Gottman's marriage counseling methods, finding them intuitively appealing but scientifically questionable. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews John Gottman's book 'The Seven Principles For Making Marriage Work', summarizing Gottman's methods and then critically examining the scientific evidence behind them. The review begins with an overview of Gottman's reputation and claims, then details his approach to marital counseling, which focuses on liking your spouse, communication skills, and dealing with conflicts. Scott then investigates the statistical validity of Gottman's methods, finding significant issues with his claims of predictive accuracy and effectiveness. The review concludes with Scott's personal reflections on the challenges of relationship counseling and the nature of marital problems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the fate of 1990s environmental concerns, finding a mix of solved problems, exaggerated issues, and ongoing challenges that have faded from public attention. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the environmental concerns of the 1990s, examining what happened to issues like air and water pollution, acid rain, rainforest deforestation, endangered species, landfill space, peak resource, and whale conservation. He finds that some problems were solved, some were exaggerated, and others continue but receive less attention. The post explores why certain environmental issues fade from public consciousness, considering factors like problem-solving, alarmism, shifting focus to climate change, and changes in societal attitudes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of links and brief commentary on topics ranging from historical anecdotes to recent scientific studies and political developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and brief commentary on diverse topics. It covers historical anecdotes, scientific studies, political developments, and cultural phenomena. The post touches on subjects like vegetarian activism, Supreme Court changes, AI alignment, and Silicon Valley culture. Scott Alexander provides concise summaries and occasional personal opinions on these wide-ranging topics, often with a touch of humor or irony. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines melatonin's effects, proper dosage, and uses for sleep disorders and circadian rhythm issues, emphasizing its dual role as a hypnotic and chronobiotic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of melatonin, its effects, and proper usage. He explains that melatonin functions as both a hypnotic (inducing sleep) and a chronobiotic (shifting circadian rhythms). The post covers optimal dosing (0.3 mg, much lower than commonly available doses), use in treating circadian rhythm disorders, jet lag, and potential connections to other psychiatric conditions like seasonal affective disorder and depression. Scott also discusses personal experiences with melatonin, including its tendency to cause early waking and vivid dreams in some people. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Luna, a blockchain-based dating platform, discussing its novel features and expressing cautious optimism about its potential, while questioning the necessity of blockchain for its functions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Luna, a blockchain-based dating platform. He discusses its novel features like using cryptocurrency to allocate user attention, incentive alignment for successful matches, and machine learning for better matchmaking. While intrigued by some aspects, he questions the necessity of blockchain technology for the platform. The post explores the potential benefits and pitfalls of such a system, comparing it to existing dating sites and discussing its economic model. Scott expresses hope that Luna isn't a scam, seeing it as potentially representing the best of Silicon Valley innovation if genuine. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes Ted Chiang's article that compares AI risk to capitalism, arguing that the analogy is flawed and the reasoning behind it is unsound. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Ted Chiang's article comparing AI risk to capitalism, arguing that the comparison is flawed and the reasoning unsound. He points out that AI risk concerns originated from academics, not just Silicon Valley, and that drawing analogies between scientific concepts and social phenomena doesn't disprove the original concept. Scott also criticizes Chiang's use of psychological projection to explain AI fears, noting the dangers of amateur psychoanalysis. He concludes by emphasizing that this approach to risk assessment is inappropriate for potentially catastrophic issues. Shorter summary

A collection of links covering topics from drug regulation and genetic testing to tax reform and AI developments, with Scott's commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a wide-ranging links post covering various news items and studies. Topics include FDA regulations and drug pricing, genetic testing advances, Russian Facebook ads from the 2016 election, studies on education and intelligence, tax reform effects on graduate students, and various scientific developments. The post moves quickly between topics, providing brief commentary and often linking to additional sources. Several items focus on medical and healthcare issues, from insulin prices to studies on pain medication effectiveness. The post maintains Scott's characteristic mix of intellectual curiosity and light humor throughout. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores how people can have vastly different experiences of the world and others, even in similar circumstances, due to social bubbles, varying interpretations of social cues, and unconscious influences. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses how people can have vastly different experiences of the world and other people, even when in similar circumstances. He starts by recounting his experience as a psychiatrist, where his patients behaved differently from those of his colleagues, possibly due to his unconscious influence. He then explores the concept of paranoia and its opposite in Williams Syndrome, suggesting that people naturally vary in their tendency to interpret ambiguous situations positively or negatively. The post then delves into the concept of social bubbles, noting how the author's social circle differs dramatically from the general population in various ways. Finally, he ties these ideas together, proposing that people's different experiences of the world - whether they find others to be kind or cruel, discriminatory or accepting - may be due to a combination of self-selection into different social bubbles, varying tendencies in interpreting social cues, and unconscious influences on others' behavior. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that media criticism of Silicon Valley based on products like Juicero ignores the significant innovative and altruistic work being done in the tech hub. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the media's portrayal of Silicon Valley as being solely focused on frivolous products like the Juicero juicer. He argues that while such products exist, they are not representative of the majority of Silicon Valley's work. He provides examples of important and innovative projects in areas like medical research, renewable energy, and space exploration. Alexander analyzes Y Combinator and Andreessen Horowitz portfolios to show that most startups are focused on serious business solutions or altruistic goals. He theorizes that people's perception of Silicon Valley is influenced by their own interests and experiences, leading to different views of what the tech hub 'does'. He concludes by arguing that Silicon Valley's mistakes are less harmful than those of other influential sectors, and that its capacity for innovation should be appreciated and protected. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the complex ethical and legal issues surrounding sexual consent for institutionalized and intellectually disabled individuals, arguing for a nuanced approach that balances protection and autonomy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the complex issue of consent for institutionalized and intellectually disabled individuals, particularly regarding sexual activity. He explores the tension between protecting vulnerable people from abuse and respecting their autonomy and human desires. The post examines current practices in mental hospitals, long-term care facilities, and legal cases involving disabled individuals. Scott argues that while strict legal protections are necessary, there may be ethical grounds for a more nuanced approach in certain situations, allowing for non-verbal forms of consent and considering the overall well-being of the individuals involved. He critiques both overly restrictive policies and potentially exploitative ones, advocating for a careful, case-by-case consideration of these sensitive issues. Shorter summary

A wide-ranging links post covering recent research, political developments, and interesting findings across various fields, with particular focus on psychology research, political polling, and academic developments. Longer summary

An extensive roundup of links covering various topics in science, politics, and culture. Scott covers recent research on discrimination and peer effects, discusses political developments like Brexit polling and DNC chair elections, highlights interesting academic papers on personality and therapy, and shares various curiosities like tracking a child's first words. The post also covers developments in AI, drug regulation, and campus activism. The tone is analytical and exploratory, often questioning conventional wisdom and examining evidence from multiple angles. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links from early 2017 covering drugs, education, politics, science and history, with Scott's commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a links post where Scott Alexander shares various interesting articles and studies he's come across. The post covers a wide range of topics including new drug developments, education statistics, political events around Trump's presidency, scientific discoveries, and historical curiosities. The format follows a typical links post structure with brief commentary on each link, often adding context or witty observations. Many items focus on current events from early 2017, including Trump administration policies and European political trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the phenomenon of cost disease, where costs for basic services like education and healthcare have increased dramatically without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of cost disease, where costs for essential services like education, healthcare, and housing have increased significantly over the past few decades without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. He presents data showing how these costs have risen much faster than inflation, while worker salaries in these fields have remained stagnant or even declined. Alexander considers various potential explanations for this phenomenon, including market failures, increased regulation, lawsuit fears, and changing risk tolerance. He argues that this cost disease is a major factor behind many current political and economic debates, and expresses concern about its impact on living standards and economic progress. Shorter summary