Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field.

A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena.

Scott Alexander reviews 'The Origins of Woke', finding its critique of civil rights law informative but skeptical of its claim that such laws caused wokeness.

Anna Schaffner's 'Exhaustion: A History' traces explanations for chronic fatigue from ancient times to modern Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, showing how they reflect contemporary cultural and scientific ideas.

Scott Alexander explores new data on birth order effects among his blog readers, finding social factors likely explain firstborns' overrepresentation.

Lars Doucet presents evidence that land is still a major economic factor in modern times, contrary to some economists' claims.

Scott Alexander reviews several model city projects, analyzing their feasibility and unique challenges with a mix of skepticism and interest.

Scott Alexander argues that Jewish overachievement is real and deserves continued study, countering Noah Smith's attempt to downplay its significance.

Scott Alexander humorously analyzes 'My Immortal' as an alchemical allegory, combining medieval alchemy, Rosicrucian writings, and Goethe's Faust.

Scott Alexander provides updates on coronavirus trends, discusses various pandemic-related topics, and analyzes different countries' responses and policy proposals.

Scott Alexander reviews Toby Ord's 'The Precipice', a book about existential risks to humanity, noting Ord's careful analysis and surprisingly low risk estimates while emphasizing the importance of addressing these risks.

Scott Alexander discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including strategies, mysteries, controversies, and global impacts.

Scott Alexander reviews John Gottman's marriage counseling methods, finding them intuitively appealing but scientifically questionable.

Scott Alexander examines the fate of 1990s environmental concerns, finding a mix of solved problems, exaggerated issues, and ongoing challenges that have faded from public attention.

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of links and brief commentary on topics ranging from historical anecdotes to recent scientific studies and political developments.

Scott Alexander examines melatonin's effects, proper dosage, and uses for sleep disorders and circadian rhythm issues, emphasizing its dual role as a hypnotic and chronobiotic.

Scott Alexander reviews Luna, a blockchain-based dating platform, discussing its novel features and expressing cautious optimism about its potential, while questioning the necessity of blockchain for its functions.

Scott Alexander criticizes Ted Chiang's article that compares AI risk to capitalism, arguing that the analogy is flawed and the reasoning behind it is unsound.

A collection of links covering topics from drug regulation and genetic testing to tax reform and AI developments, with Scott's commentary on each item.

Scott Alexander explores how people can have vastly different experiences of the world and others, even in similar circumstances, due to social bubbles, varying interpretations of social cues, and unconscious influences.

Scott Alexander argues that media criticism of Silicon Valley based on products like Juicero ignores the significant innovative and altruistic work being done in the tech hub.

Scott Alexander explores the complex ethical and legal issues surrounding sexual consent for institutionalized and intellectually disabled individuals, arguing for a nuanced approach that balances protection and autonomy.

A wide-ranging links post covering recent research, political developments, and interesting findings across various fields, with particular focus on psychology research, political polling, and academic developments.

A collection of interesting links from early 2017 covering drugs, education, politics, science and history, with Scott's commentary on each.

Scott Alexander examines the phenomenon of cost disease, where costs for basic services like education and healthcare have increased dramatically without corresponding improvements in quality or wages.