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172 posts found
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Feb 05, 2026
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Links For February 2026

48 min • 7,419 words • 660 comments • 255 likes • podcast (49 min)
A monthly collection of diverse links covering AI developments and regulation, COVID origins debates, healthcare policy, cultural phenomena, scientific research, and internet curiosities, maintaining Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and entertaining observations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander's February 2026 links collection covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, politics, science, culture, and internet phenomena. Major themes include updates on AI capabilities and regulation (with discussions of OpenAI, Anthropic, and various political machinations around AI policy), the ongoing COVID lab leak debate and related prediction markets, healthcare and drug development issues, cultural observations from around the world, and various scientific and academic findings. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious policy discussions, academic research, internet curiosities, and cultural commentary, with particular attention to AI safety concerns, rationalist community topics, and interesting historical or linguistic oddities. Shorter summary
Oct 21, 2025
acx
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Tech PACs Are Closing In On The Almonds

18 min • 2,779 words • 516 comments • 343 likes • podcast (17 min)
Marc Andreessen's crypto SuperPAC spent $260 million in 2024 to successfully pressure politicians on crypto regulation, and now he's launching similarly massive AI-focused PACs that could dominate AI policy unless AI safety supporters organize their own political funding. Longer summary
Scott revisits his 2019 question about why there's so little money in politics relative to other industries, and reports that Marc Andreessen has essentially solved this puzzle by spending massively on crypto PACs in 2024 with overwhelming success. His Fairshake PAC raised $260 million (compared to AIPAC's $87 million), successfully pressured politicians into pro-crypto positions, and may have effectively purchased control over crypto regulation. Now Andreessen and others are launching AI-focused SuperPACs with $200+ million in funding, threatening to do the same for AI policy. Scott explains the mechanics of hard vs soft money, why the strategy worked, and ends by calling on AI safety supporters to organize their own political funding efforts to counter this influence. Shorter summary
Oct 01, 2025
acx
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The Fatima Sun Miracle: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

213 min • 32,949 words • 755 comments • 679 likes • podcast (186 min)
A detailed investigation of the Sun Miracle of Fatima in 1917, where 70,000 people witnessed the sun appear to spin, change colors, and fall to earth, analyzing witness testimonies, skeptical explanations, and similar phenomena at other Marian apparition sites. Longer summary
Scott conducts an extensive investigation into the 1917 Miracle of the Sun at Fatima, where tens of thousands witnessed what appeared to be the sun spinning, changing colors, and falling to earth. He examines approximately 60 primary testimonies, evaluates common skeptical explanations (optical phenomena, weather events, mass hallucination), and documents similar sun miracles at other Marian apparition sites worldwide. Scott then critiques Dalleur's theory about distant witnesses and shadow analysis, explores why more people don't see these phenomena normally, and proposes a tentative materialist explanation involving a rare optical illusion modulated by cloud cover and social priming. The post ends by suggesting research directions for those interested in further investigation. Shorter summary
Jul 01, 2025
acx
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Links For July 2025

28 min • 4,200 words • 581 comments • 210 likes • podcast (32 min)
Scott shares his monthly collection of 56 interesting links and developments from July 2025, covering AI, politics, science, and culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary
This is a collection of 56 interesting links and news items from July 2025, covering topics from AI development to politics to scientific research. The post includes updates on OpenAI's status, developments in AI regulation, new medical treatments, cultural trends, and various scientific findings. Scott maintains his usual style of presenting these with brief commentary and occasional humor, while being careful to note that he hasn't independently verified all links. Some notable items include Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill", new AI safety developments, trends in social media usage, and various medical breakthroughs. Shorter summary
Nov 01, 2024
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Links For November 2024

42 min • 6,373 words • 932 comments • 216 likes • podcast (41 min)
A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena. Longer summary
This post is a compilation of various news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, technological advancements, cultural phenomena, and historical anecdotes. The post is structured as a numbered list, with each item briefly summarizing a piece of news or information. Some notable items include a new schizophrenia drug approval, YouGov polling results on various historical figures, findings on genetic IQ changes over time, and updates on AI technology and its implications. Shorter summary
May 07, 2024
acx
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Highlights From The Comments On "The Origin Of Woke"

92 min • 14,255 words • 375 comments • 103 likes • podcast (74 min)
Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his review of 'The Origins of Woke', covering various aspects of civil rights law, workplace discrimination, and the spread of 'wokeness'. Longer summary
This post highlights various comments on Scott Alexander's review of Richard Hanania's book 'The Origins of Woke'. The comments cover a wide range of topics including personal experiences with workplace discrimination, the origins and spread of 'wokeness', civil rights law in different countries, EEOC lawsuits, and various other related subjects. The post provides a balanced view of different perspectives on these issues, showing both support for and criticism of Hanania's arguments. Shorter summary
Feb 29, 2024
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Links For February 2024

33 min • 5,036 words • 547 comments • 114 likes • podcast (32 min)
A compilation of 55 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, including scientific studies, historical anecdotes, cultural phenomena, and technological developments. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 55 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, ranging from scientific studies and historical anecdotes to cultural phenomena and technological developments. The author covers subjects such as economic miracles, AI developments, religious trends, and social issues. Many items include claims or studies that the author finds interesting or surprising, often with a skeptical or analytical perspective. The post also includes updates on previous topics discussed by the author and references to other bloggers or researchers in the rationalist and effective altruism communities. Shorter summary
Oct 09, 2023
acx
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Impact Market Mini-Grants Results

24 min • 3,631 words • 79 comments • 77 likes • podcast (21 min)
Scott Alexander reviews the results of the Impact Market Mini-Grants test run, discussing the top projects and lessons learned about this novel charitable funding method. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reports on the results of the Impact Market Mini-Grants, a novel way of running charitable grants where investors fund promising projects and grantmakers buy credit for successes. The test run involved 18 forecasting-related projects, with judges assessing their final value. Most projects lost money for investors, but a few were highly successful. Scott discusses the top five projects, including a rationality education program at the University of Maryland, a forecasting tournament, a tool for making Kelly-optimal bets, a paper on forecasting long-term impacts, and an ambitious impact assessment project in India. He reflects on the lessons learned from this experiment, noting both successes and challenges in implementing the impact market concept. Shorter summary
Oct 04, 2023
acx
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How Are The Gay Younger Brothers Doing?

22 min • 3,400 words • 401 comments • 107 likes • podcast (22 min)
Scott Alexander examines recent studies on the Fraternal Birth Order Effect, finding evidence for a broader sibling birth order effect on homosexuality, though its exact nature and mechanism remain debated. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews recent studies on the Fraternal Birth Order Effect (FBOE), which suggests that men with more older brothers are more likely to be gay. He discusses three key studies: Frisch and Hviid's large-scale Danish study that found no clear FBOE, Vilsmeier et al.'s meta-analysis that questioned the statistical validity of previous FBOE claims, and Ablaza et al.'s extensive Dutch study that found a significant effect of older siblings (both brothers and sisters) on homosexuality. Scott concludes that while the FBOE hypothesis has been forced to evolve, the core idea that more older siblings increases the likelihood of homosexuality seems to stand, though the biological mechanism remains uncertain. Shorter summary
Sep 13, 2023
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Book Review: Elon Musk

67 min • 10,307 words • 918 comments • 342 likes • podcast (49 min)
Scott reviews Ashlee Vance's 2015 Elon Musk biography, analyzing Musk's personality, work ethic, and business strategies to understand his successes and controversies. Longer summary
This book review analyzes Ashlee Vance's 2015 biography of Elon Musk, examining Musk's personality, work ethic, and business strategies. The review explores Musk's engineering abilities, management style, and the reasons behind his companies' successes despite controversial decisions. It discusses Musk's intense focus, his tendency to set unrealistic timelines, and his impact on employees. The review also touches on Musk's social skills, his approach to PR, and speculates on his future success with Twitter/X. Shorter summary
Aug 16, 2023
acx
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In Defense Of Describable Dating Preferences

32 min • 4,885 words • 647 comments • 220 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott Alexander argues that describable dating preferences are valuable, despite studies suggesting otherwise, by pointing out flaws in research and emphasizing real-world evidence. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques studies suggesting that describable preferences are useless in dating, arguing that common sense and empirical evidence show otherwise. He points out flaws in these studies, such as pre-sorted populations and brief evaluation periods, and suggests that while initial attraction might be random, similar interests and personalities likely lead to lasting relationships. Scott also discusses the value of dating profiles and 'dating docs' in conveying subjective preferences that can't be easily quantified in psychological exams. He concludes that for people who believe they can use describable preferences effectively, these tools remain valuable despite average trends in the general population. Shorter summary
Jun 01, 2023
acx
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Links For May 2023

24 min • 3,615 words • 682 comments • 125 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and news items, covering topics from architecture and history to AI developments and scientific studies, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary
This post is a collection of various links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, history, animal welfare, optical illusions, scientific studies, AI developments, demographics, and more. Scott provides brief commentary on many of the items, sometimes expressing his personal opinions or highlighting interesting aspects. The post includes both light-hearted topics (like unusual baby names) and more serious discussions (such as AI safety concerns and research on gender bias in academia). Shorter summary
May 24, 2023
acx
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Hypergamy: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

45 min • 6,823 words • 411 comments • 290 likes • podcast (39 min)
Scott Alexander examines hypergamy in modern marriages, finding educational hypergamy has reversed while income hypergamy persists, with strong class homogamy for both genders. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines the concept of hypergamy, particularly focusing on educational and income differences in heterosexual marriages. He finds that while educational hypergamy (women marrying more educated men) has reversed due to women's increasing educational attainment, income hypergamy (women marrying higher-earning men) persists. The post explores various studies on class, income, and educational matching in marriages, discusses the role of physical attractiveness, and touches on hypergamy in same-sex relationships. Scott concludes that class homogamy is strong for both genders, with looks playing a smaller role than often assumed in mate selection. Shorter summary
Jan 24, 2023
acx
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Who Predicted 2022?

24 min • 3,720 words • 258 comments • 101 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes results from a 2022 prediction contest, discussing top performers and methods for improving forecast accuracy. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the results of a 2022 prediction contest where 508 participants assigned probabilities to 71 yes-or-no questions about future events. The post discusses the performance of individual forecasters, aggregation methods, and prediction markets. It highlights the success of superforecasters, the wisdom of crowds, and prediction markets. The article also announces winners, discusses demographic factors in forecasting ability, and introduces a new contest for 2023, emphasizing the potential for improving forecasting accuracy through various methods. Shorter summary
Jan 03, 2023
acx
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How Do AIs' Political Opinions Change As They Get Smarter And Better-Trained?

28 min • 4,238 words • 232 comments • 183 likes • podcast (32 min)
Scott examines how AI language models' opinions and behaviors evolve as they become more advanced, discussing implications for AI alignment. Longer summary
Scott Alexander analyzes a study on how AI language models' political opinions and behaviors change as they become more advanced and undergo different training. The study used AI-generated questions to test AI beliefs on various topics. Key findings include that more advanced AIs tend to endorse a wider range of opinions, show increased power-seeking tendencies, and display 'sycophancy bias' by telling users what they want to hear. Scott discusses the implications of these results for AI alignment and safety. Shorter summary
Dec 20, 2022
acx
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Prediction Market FAQ

84 min • 12,964 words • 316 comments • 166 likes • podcast (77 min)
Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary
This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary
Dec 16, 2022
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2023 Prediction Contest

4 min • 535 words • 168 comments • 89 likes • podcast (4 min)
Scott Alexander announces a formalized 2023 Prediction Contest with 50 questions, multiple modes of play, and cash prizes. Longer summary
Scott Alexander announces the 2023 Prediction Contest, a formalized version of his annual predictions. The contest includes 50 forecasting questions and 5 demographic questions. Participants can play in Blind Mode (limited research, no external sources) or Full Mode (unlimited research). There are multiple prizes, including $500 for winners in different categories. The contest aims to create a standard for comparing forecasters and forecasting sites, with plans to correlate personality traits with forecasting accuracy in a future ACX Survey. Shorter summary
Nov 30, 2022
acx
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Highlights From The Comments On Semaglutide

41 min • 6,260 words • 123 comments • 64 likes • podcast (36 min)
Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his post about semaglutide, covering corrections, additional information, and user experiences with the weight loss drug. Longer summary
Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his previous post about semaglutide, a weight loss drug. The highlights include corrections to his original analysis, additional information on obtaining semaglutide cheaply, discussion of other weight loss drugs and treatments, challenges to Scott's predictions, debate over whether weight loss is maintained after stopping the drug, personal anecdotes from users, and mentions of some tangential debates in the comments. Shorter summary
Jul 01, 2022
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Your Book Review: The Internationalists

59 min • 9,133 words • 241 comments • 76 likes • podcast (58 min)
A review of 'The Internationalists', which argues for the significance of the 1928 Kellogg-Briand Peace Pact in outlawing war and shaping modern international relations. Longer summary
This book review discusses 'The Internationalists' by Oona Hathaway and Scott Shapiro, which argues for the importance of the 1928 Kellogg-Briand Peace Pact in outlawing war. The review explores how the Pact changed international norms, leading to a significant decrease in conquest and territorial changes. It covers the book's three main sections: the Old World Order, the Transformation Period, and the New World Order. The review also addresses criticisms of the Pact's relevance and discusses its implications for current events like the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Shorter summary
Jun 24, 2022
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Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy

52 min • 8,023 words • 251 comments • 80 likes • podcast (56 min)
A review of Richard Hanania's book arguing that public choice theory, not grand strategy, explains US foreign policy decisions and their often devastating consequences. Longer summary
This book review discusses Richard Hanania's 'Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy', which argues that public choice theory better explains US foreign policy than the unitary actor model. The review covers the book's key arguments, including how special interest groups shape foreign policy, the incoherence of American interventions, and the devastating effects of sanctions. It also explores the book's relevance to current events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and potential implications for nuclear security and effective altruism. Shorter summary
May 27, 2022
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Your Book Review: The Anti-Politics Machine

31 min • 4,689 words • 275 comments • 155 likes • podcast (33 min)
A review of 'The Anti-Politics Machine' by James Ferguson, discussing its critique of development projects and implications for Effective Altruism. Longer summary
This post reviews 'The Anti-Politics Machine' by James Ferguson, which critiques development projects in Lesotho. The reviewer highlights two key ideas: the concept of 'development discourse' that leads to misinterpretation of local contexts, and the 'anti-politics machine' critique of technocratic decision-making. The review discusses how these ideas apply to modern development economics and Effective Altruism, suggesting the need for more qualitative research, emphasis on local context, and consideration of political implications in charitable work. Shorter summary
Mar 23, 2022
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Men Will Literally Have Completely Different Mental Processes Instead Of Going To Therapy

7 min • 1,006 words • 514 comments • 215 likes • podcast (8 min)
Scott Alexander examines why therapy works for some people but not others, suggesting that individual differences in mental processes might explain its varying effectiveness. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the debate around the effectiveness of therapy, particularly supportive therapy. He acknowledges the wide range of opinions, from those who see therapy as a waste of money to those who find it incredibly beneficial. The post delves into the possible reasons for these differing views, suggesting that individual differences in mental processes might explain why therapy works for some but not others. Scott discusses examples of people lacking certain mental abilities that others take for granted, such as problem-solving skills or inner monologue, and speculates that these differences might influence therapy's effectiveness. He emphasizes that everyone likely has some deficiencies in basic human functioning, and that the variation in thought processes could explain the varying benefits people derive from therapy. Shorter summary
Jan 12, 2022
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There's A Time For Everyone

18 min • 2,661 words • 524 comments • 671 likes • podcast (20 min)
Scott Alexander announces his marriage and reflects on finding love, introducing 'micromarriages' as a motivational concept and exploring the rational and romantic aspects of marriage. Longer summary
Scott Alexander announces his recent marriage and reflects on his journey to find a partner. He introduces the concept of 'micromarriages' as a motivational tool for those seeking relationships, shares personal anecdotes about meeting his wife, and discusses the significance of marriage contracts. Scott then delves into a more philosophical view of marriage, comparing it to Odysseus' encounter with the Sirens, emphasizing the balance between rational precautions and embracing the beauty of a deep connection. Shorter summary
Nov 23, 2021
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When Will The FDA Approve Paxlovid?

9 min • 1,382 words • 461 comments • 115 likes • podcast (11 min)
Scott Alexander critiques the FDA's slow approval process for Paxlovid, a promising COVID-19 treatment, despite its proven effectiveness. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the FDA's delay in approving Paxlovid, a highly effective COVID-19 treatment. He criticizes the FDA for taking an estimated six weeks to approve the drug despite stopping trials early due to its effectiveness. The post explores the inconsistency in the FDA's approach, questions potential reasons for the delay, and emphasizes the urgency of approval given the ongoing COVID-19 deaths. Scott also addresses potential criticisms by comparing the situation to ivermectin and acknowledging the risk of unforeseen issues with Paxlovid. Shorter summary
Jul 15, 2021
acx
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Book Review: Crazy Like Us

43 min • 6,581 words • 583 comments • 185 likes • podcast (45 min)
Scott Alexander reviews 'Crazy Like Us', exploring how Western mental health concepts spread globally and whether raising awareness of mental health problems might make them worse. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews 'Crazy Like Us' by Ethan Watters, which explores how Western mental health concepts are spreading globally. The book presents case studies on anorexia in Hong Kong, depression in Japan, PTSD in Sri Lanka, and schizophrenia in Zanzibar. While Scott finds the book's main thesis only moderately interesting, he's intrigued by a recurring sub-theme: whether raising awareness of mental health problems might actually make them worse. He discusses each case study, offering his own insights and critiques, and concludes by imagining a culture that runs 'Mental Health Unawareness Campaigns'. Shorter summary
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