Scott examines a paradox where bloomers and anti-doomers warn against apocalyptic thinking while treating doomerism itself as an unprecedented existential crisis requiring drastic action. Longer summary

Scott analyzes Jason Pargin's novel 'I'm Starting To Worry About This Black Box Of Doom' and similar arguments from Peter Thiel, Tyler Cowen, and progress studies advocates, noting they all share a contradiction: they argue we should stop treating problems as unprecedented crises, except for the problem of treating problems as crises, which they present as uniquely dangerous. The post examines how these thinkers simultaneously advocate against doomerism while expressing extreme concern about doomerism itself. Scott argues this reveals that strong views about a 'crisis of doomerism' are incompatible with worldviews that reject the existence of real crises, and concludes that optimism should be a heuristic rather than an absolute principle, with problems (including excessive doomerism) evaluated based on evidence using consistent standards. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents 51 links covering AI progress and safety, political developments, scientific research, cultural oddities, and ongoing philosophical debates about miracles and education reform. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares 51 links covering diverse topics including AI developments (agents, safety, consciousness research), political news (Ukraine policy, UK politics, Trump administration), science updates (climate predictions, genetics, bacteriophages), cultural curiosities (Shakespeare superfan plastic surgery, Soviet naming conventions, flag cones), health research (Alzheimer's prevention, shingles vaccine reducing dementia, kidney donation), and philosophical debates (Hume's argument against miracles, the Fatima miracle discussion). The post maintains Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and quirky observations, touching on everything from Bach's descendants in Oklahoma to the mystery of why AI still struggles with laundry folding despite mastering protein folding. Shorter summary

Scott shares 50 diverse links covering topics from AI developments to policy changes, with commentary on current events, research findings, and societal trends. Longer summary

In this monthly links roundup, Scott Alexander covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, public policy changes, scientific research, and current events. The post follows a numbered format presenting each item with Scott's characteristic analysis and often humorous commentary. Notable topics include AI safety developments, changes in government policy, climate change updates, and various social and technological trends. The tone alternates between analytical and personal reflection, particularly when discussing potentially concerning political developments. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links and brief comments on recent developments in science, technology, politics, and society, ranging from climate change to AI developments to social experiments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links and brief comments on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including climate change, AI developments, social experiments, scientific studies, political issues, and technological innovations. The author presents these topics with a mix of factual reporting, personal commentary, and sometimes humorous observations. The post touches on subjects like geoengineering, crypto for sex workers, AI art, fertility rates, dating apps, charity effectiveness, and many others. The author often provides links to original sources and sometimes offers his own analysis or opinion on the matters discussed. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander satirizes media coverage of Effective Altruism by applying similar reporting tactics to other causes and movements. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical piece mimicking media reporting on Effective Altruism by applying similar rhetorical techniques to other topics and movements. He creates fictional news stories about climate change, political activism, drunk driving prevention, and other causes, using logical fallacies, misrepresentations, and sensationalism to mock how media often portrays Effective Altruism. The post highlights how these reporting tactics can unfairly discredit or misrepresent important causes and movements. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses reactions to his 'Justice Creep' article, exploring different perspectives on framing social issues as matters of justice. Longer summary

This post discusses various reactions to Scott's previous article on 'Justice Creep'. It covers three main categories of responses: those who support framing issues as justice matters, those who see it as a harmful trend, and a comment about 'sexual justice' for incels. Scott then explores the implications of these perspectives, particularly focusing on the distinction between care/harm and fairness foundations in moral reasoning. He also discusses animal welfare, environmental issues, and historical views on charity and justice. The post includes insights from commenters on topics such as the philosophy of justice, Google search result estimates, and the tension between identifying injustice and creating effective change. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the increasing use of 'justice' framing in social and environmental issues, exploring its implications and potential societal impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the trend of framing various social and environmental issues as matters of 'justice,' such as 'economic justice,' 'climate justice,' and 'racial justice.' He argues that this semantic shift from 'helping' or 'saving' to 'justice' carries different implications and connotations. The post explores how the justice framing might suggest current conditions are unjust, imply an obligation to pursue justice, and potentially conflate sophisticated philosophical concepts with criminal justice connotations. Scott also posits that this shift might reflect a transition from utopian to dystopian thinking in society. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets for the Ukraine crisis, introduces Manifold Markets, and discusses recent Metaculus questions and forecasting initiatives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various prediction markets and forecasting platforms, focusing on the Ukraine crisis, a new prediction market called Manifold Markets, and recent questions on Metaculus. He analyzes the probabilities of a Russian invasion of Ukraine across different platforms, introduces the concept of an 'Alexander Cube' for ideal prediction markets, and highlights interesting markets on Manifold. The post also covers new Metaculus questions on intelligence enhancement and environmental issues, and mentions several forecasting-related contests and grants. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his 'Don't Look Up' movie review, addressing criticisms and exploring various interpretations of the film. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his review of the movie 'Don't Look Up'. He acknowledges some valid criticisms of his review, discusses the feasibility of deflecting comets as portrayed in the film, explores the movie's political stance, and shares interesting observations from viewers. The post includes discussions on the movie's scientific accuracy, its portrayal of peer review, and speculations about which real-life tech CEO a character might be based on. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Don't Look Up', critiquing its contradictory narratives about trusting science and experts vs. outsiders. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the movie 'Don't Look Up', focusing on its political implications rather than its message about existential risk. He summarizes the plot, then critiques the film's self-contradictory narratives about trusting experts vs. trusting outsiders. Scott argues that the movie unintentionally encourages conspiracy thinking while trying to promote 'trusting science'. He explains how people often hold contradictory political narratives, deploying whichever is convenient. The review concludes that the film succeeds in conveying emotions around existential risk debates but fails to coherently follow through on its intended message. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the threat of ancient diseases from thawing permafrost, arguing that recent human plagues pose a greater risk than prehistoric ones. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the potential threat of ancient diseases reemerging from thawing permafrost due to climate change. He argues that diseases from millions of years ago are unlikely to pose a significant threat to humans, as they would not be adapted to human biology. However, he expresses more concern about recent human plagues like the 1918 Spanish flu or smallpox potentially coming back. Scott explains that while there's no evidence of live smallpox virus found on artifacts or corpses, the possibility of viruses surviving in permafrost can't be ruled out entirely. He concludes that the biggest risk might come from scientists investigating these potential threats rather than natural exposure. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 34 varied links and pieces of information on topics including science, history, politics, and technology, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 34 diverse links and snippets of information on various topics. It covers subjects ranging from Jeff Bezos' biological father, to studies on Christianity's growth, to climate change discussions, to updates on AI progress. The post also includes commentary on current events like the University of Austin controversy and political polling trends. Many of the links discuss recent scientific studies or historical anecdotes, often with Scott's brief analysis or opinion added. Shorter summary

Scott responds to various reader comments on his article about having children despite climate change, addressing critiques and expanding on several points. Longer summary

This post highlights and responds to various comments on Scott's previous article about having children despite climate change concerns. It covers topics such as the sincerity of climate concerns, political implications, carbon emissions by location, the severity of climate change impacts, and arguments for and against having children in the current climate context. Scott engages with these comments, offering additional insights, corrections, and reflections on the original arguments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that concerns about climate change should not deter people from having children, presenting counterarguments to common climate-related reasons for avoiding parenthood. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the idea that people should avoid having children due to climate change concerns. He presents three main counterarguments: 1) While climate change will be bad, it's unlikely to be catastrophic for most people in developed countries. 2) Choosing not to have children might actually harm climate action by reducing the number of future climate-conscious voters. 3) The carbon footprint of having a child is often overstated, and can potentially be offset through donations or other means. He concludes that climate concerns shouldn't prevent people who want children from having them. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a chart quantifying carbon emissions from various sources, discussing the implications and providing advice on addressing climate change responsibly. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a chart quantifying carbon emissions from various activities, lifestyle changes, and actors. He emphasizes the approximate nature of these numbers and explains the methodology behind the calculations. The post discusses the implications of these figures, including the relative impact of individual actions versus larger systemic changes. Scott also provides advice on how individuals can responsibly address climate change, such as staying informed, supporting climate-conscious politicians, and considering carbon offsets. The article concludes with an extensive list of sources for the data presented. Shorter summary

Scott proposes politicians pledge to change prediction markets' forecasts instead of making direct outcome pledges, using Biden's emissions pledge as an example. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes that instead of making pledges about future outcomes, politicians should pledge to change prediction markets' forecasts about those outcomes. He uses Biden's pledge to halve US emissions by 2030 as an example, noting that such long-term pledges are often unfulfilled. Scott suggests that Biden could instead pledge to make Metaculus (or another prediction market) show a 51%+ chance of meeting the emissions target by the end of his term. This approach would require Biden to take concrete actions that convince forecasters of the likelihood of success. The post discusses potential objections to this idea, including the impact of future administrations, attempts to manipulate markets, and whether this might disrupt important political processes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that eating beef is more ethical than chicken due to reduced animal suffering, despite higher environmental impact, and explores the complexities of this ethical calculus. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that eating beef is more ethical than eating chicken from an animal welfare perspective, despite beef's higher environmental impact. He calculates that switching from chicken to beef saves about 60 chickens per year at the cost of 2.2 tons extra CO2. Offsetting this carbon costs about $22 annually, which he argues is worthwhile given the reduction in animal suffering. He then explores the complexities of comparing direct action to offsetting, discussing potential market failures in offset pricing. Despite these complications, he concludes that eating beef over chicken is likely still the better ethical choice, especially if one is not actually performing the offsets. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Wizard and the Prophet' by Charles Mann, exploring contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt and Norman Borlaug. Longer summary

This review of Charles Mann's 'The Wizard and the Prophet' explores the contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt (the 'Prophet') and Norman Borlaug (the 'Wizard'). The reviewer initially favors Borlaug's Wizardly approach of using science and technology to solve problems, but later acknowledges the complexity of modern systems may require a more holistic approach. The review covers the book's structure, discussing the biographies of Vogt and Borlaug, and then exploring four key areas: food, water, energy, and climate change. The reviewer concludes by reflecting on the challenges of COVID-19 and the need to continue striving for improvement despite increasing complexity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander offers a guide for lazy people to donate to effective charities, ranging from easy options like EA Funds to more specific recommendations in various cause areas. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a guide for people who want to donate to effective charities but are very lazy. He suggests donating to EA Funds as the easiest option, which allows experts to allocate funds to the best charities. For those with slightly more energy, he recommends checking charity-evaluating organizations like GiveWell, Animal Charity Evaluators, and others. He also mentions specific charities in areas like AI safety, climate change, and election science. For the truly skeptical, he suggests GiveDirectly, which gives money directly to poor people in Africa. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering recent studies, unusual historical events, technological developments, and various curiosities across multiple fields. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and news items on diverse topics. It covers studies on pornography's effects, unusual military proposals, charter schools' success, climate change predictions, animal rights, restorative justice in schools, parenting advice, sexual selection theory, AI-generated content, breastfeeding patterns, visualization of classical music, Soviet whaling, cancel culture, housing legislation, embryo screening, retractions of scientific studies, gene drives, drug pricing, UFO sightings, cryopreservation, air conditioning efficiency, genetic testing for medication response, social justice terminology trends, napping benefits, nootropics survey results, Bitcoin price surge, transformer architecture in machine learning, fact-checking errors in popular books, challenges to persistence research, fringe ideologies in Japan, AI progress on language understanding, climate change risks, and various other curiosities and scientific findings. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the fate of 1990s environmental concerns, finding a mix of solved problems, exaggerated issues, and ongoing challenges that have faded from public attention. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the environmental concerns of the 1990s, examining what happened to issues like air and water pollution, acid rain, rainforest deforestation, endangered species, landfill space, peak resource, and whale conservation. He finds that some problems were solved, some were exaggerated, and others continue but receive less attention. The post explores why certain environmental issues fade from public consciousness, considering factors like problem-solving, alarmism, shifting focus to climate change, and changes in societal attitudes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander describes 'fallacies of reversed moderation,' where moderate positions are misinterpreted as extreme opposites of the consensus view. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a pattern he calls 'fallacies of reversed moderation.' This occurs when a popular consensus holds an extreme view (100% X, 0% Y), and when someone suggests a more moderate position (e.g., 90% X, 10% Y), they are accused of holding the opposite extreme view (100% Y, 0% X). He provides several examples of this pattern, including in climate change solutions, nature vs. nurture debates, and AI risk assessment. Scott explains why this pattern might occur and acknowledges its occasional validity, but argues that it's often used incorrectly. He suggests that critics should address the actual argument rather than mischaracterizing it as an extreme position. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links covering AI, economics, politics, science, and culture, offering brief comments and insights on each topic. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various news articles, studies, and interesting tidbits. It covers a wide range of topics including AI, economics, politics, science, and culture. Some notable items include: a new AI that draws pictures based on captions, a study on the effectiveness of ballpoint pens for emergency tracheotomies, the cancellation of a basic income experiment, weaknesses in Xi Jinping's rule, and a study showing Hitler's speeches didn't measurably increase Nazi support. The post also touches on topics like climate change, antimalarial bed nets, polygenic scores for disease risk, and a replication of a famous psychology study on smiling and happiness. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott providing brief comments or insights on many of the links. Shorter summary

A links post featuring various news and articles about politics, science, and culture, with Scott's commentary on research papers and current events. Longer summary

This is a links post compiling various interesting news and articles from around the web. Topics range from climate change and politics to scientific studies and charitable giving. Scott comments on several research papers, including ones about non-citizen voting and healthcare in Cuba. The post also includes interesting side notes about geography, prison marriages, and literary references. Many of the links are accompanied by Scott's brief commentary or witty observations. Shorter summary

Scott examines the relationship between altitude and obesity, then explores and ultimately dismisses the theory that increased atmospheric CO2 could be causing the obesity epidemic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the correlation between altitude and obesity rates in the US, noting that people living at higher elevations tend to be less obese. He discusses various studies on altitude anorexia and hypoxia's effect on weight loss. The post then transitions to a speculative theory about whether increased atmospheric CO2 from global warming could be causing the obesity epidemic. While intriguing, Scott ultimately concludes that this theory is likely not true, based on geographical inconsistencies, submarine studies, and the small magnitude of potential effects. Shorter summary