Scott analyzes Javier Milei's presidency in Argentina, noting mixed results in economic indicators and policies, with some successes in budget cuts and inflation reduction, but increased poverty rates.

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society.

Scott reviews David Brooks' thesis on how a 1950s change in Ivy League admissions policy reshaped American elite culture and society.

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets on Twitter, FTX, effective altruism, and US midterms, discussing their accuracy and exploring the concept of 'scandal markets'.

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.

The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events.

Scott Alexander explores various applications and recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, covering topics from election betting to teacher evaluation and social media moderation.

Scott Alexander argues that many people missed an opportunity to have a realistic chance of becoming Governor of California in the recall election, and analyzes why this happened.

Scott Alexander's links post covers historical oddities, scientific studies, social issues, and tech developments, ranging from pet monkeys to AI progress.

Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response.

Scott Alexander argues that the media's failure in coronavirus coverage was not about prediction, but about poor probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty.

Scott Alexander provides updates on coronavirus trends, discusses various pandemic-related topics, and analyzes different countries' responses and policy proposals.

The post explores how emotional learning creates hard-to-update mental models, drawing parallels between psychotherapy, psychedelics, and rationality techniques in overcoming these 'mental mountains'.

Scott Alexander compares political spending to the almond industry, revealing surprisingly low amounts in politics due to coordination problems.

Scott Alexander argues against criticism of billionaire philanthropy, citing its efficiency, positive impact, and ability to support important causes that governments often neglect.

A diverse collection of links covering technology, science, economics, politics, and culture, including critiques of studies, interesting scientific findings, and current events.

Scott Alexander examines the history of increasing competitiveness in college admissions, analyzing causes and questioning whether the focus on elite college admission is justified.

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics including architecture, history, science, politics, and economics, offering brief commentaries and insights on each.

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of links and brief commentary on topics ranging from historical anecdotes to recent scientific studies and political developments.

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2017 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and calibration across different confidence levels.

Scott Alexander compares the cost of the GOP tax bill to other expensive projects, reflecting on how society scrutinizes different types of costly proposals.

Scott Alexander argues that gender imbalances in certain movements are more likely due to inherent differences in interests between men and women rather than offensive attitudes, challenging the assumption that purging perceived sexism will achieve gender parity.

A wide-ranging links post covering recent research, political developments, and interesting findings across various fields, with particular focus on psychology research, political polling, and academic developments.

Scott Alexander argues that accusations of Trump being an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are exaggerated and harmful, and calls for more measured criticism of Trump's actual flaws.

Scott Alexander argues that the 2016 US election outcome shouldn't drastically change our understanding of politics, given how close the race is.