A book review exploring the history of Project Xanadu, Ted Nelson's pioneering but ultimately unsuccessful vision for a hypertext-based internet system that preceded and differed significantly from the World Wide Web. Longer summary

This book review traces the fascinating history of Project Xanadu, Ted Nelson's ambitious vision for a hypertext-based internet system that predated and rivaled the World Wide Web. Starting with Vannevar Bush's 1945 concept of the memex, through Doug Engelbart's groundbreaking demos, to Nelson's decades-long quest to build Xanadu, the post explores how this alternative vision for the internet - featuring bidirectional links, embedded content, and built-in attribution - ultimately failed to materialize despite its early start and innovative ideas. The review ends by questioning whether the simpler Web we got instead, built by Tim Berners-Lee, might have cost us something valuable in terms of how we connect and share information online. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes comments on his healthcare effectiveness debate with Robin Hanson, including clarifications, study author responses, and reader perspectives on various healthcare topics. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's recent discussion with Robin Hanson about healthcare effectiveness. It includes responses from Robin Hanson clarifying his position, comments from the authors of a study on health insurance and mortality, and various reader perspectives on healthcare, medical waste, and specific medical treatments. The post touches on topics like the statistical analysis of healthcare studies, the value of preventive medicine, and the complexities of measuring healthcare outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to Robin Hanson's reply on medical effectiveness, clarifying interpretations and reiterating arguments about the limitations of insurance experiments in evaluating medical care. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Robin Hanson's reply to his original post on medical effectiveness. Scott clarifies his interpretation of Hanson's views, discusses potential misunderstandings, and reiterates his arguments about the limitations of insurance experiments in evaluating medical effectiveness. He also addresses specific points Hanson made about cancer treatment, health insurance studies, and p-hacking in medical research. Scott concludes by restating his position that while some medicine is ineffective, it's crucial to distinguish between effective and ineffective treatments rather than dismissing medicine broadly. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander challenges Robin Hanson's claim that medicine doesn't work by analyzing health insurance studies and presenting evidence of medicine's effectiveness. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Robin Hanson's claim that medicine doesn't work, analyzing three major health insurance experiments (RAND, Oregon, and Karnataka) and other studies. He argues that these studies are underpowered to detect medication effects and don't support Hanson's conclusion, citing evidence of medicine's effectiveness in improving survival rates for various diseases. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents evidence against the existence of advanced Ice Age civilizations, particularly those rivaling ancient Egypt or 1700s Great Britain. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the existence of advanced Ice Age civilizations, categorizing potential claims into three levels of advancement: Stonehenge-like, Egyptian-like, and 1700s Great Britain-like. He presents three main arguments: the lack of archaeological sites that would survive sea level rise, the absence of evidence for early crop and livestock domestication, and the lack of elevated lead levels in ice cores and human bones from that period. While he doesn't completely rule out Stonehenge-level civilizations, he finds strong evidence against more advanced societies. The post concludes with probability estimates for future discoveries of pre-11,000 BC structures at different levels of sophistication. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 49 links and brief commentaries on various topics, ranging from cultured meat to AI developments and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 49 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, including cultured meat, government policies, scientific studies, historical anecdotes, AI developments, and current events. The author, Scott Alexander, provides his thoughts and observations on each item, often with a mix of humor, skepticism, and analysis. The links cover a wide range of subjects from technology and economics to politics and culture, reflecting the broad interests of the blog's readership. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his article about billionaire wealth, addressing various economic and ethical perspectives. Longer summary

This post summarizes and responds to reader comments on Scott Alexander's previous article about billionaire wealth and replaceability. It covers topics like natural monopolies, the role of luck vs. talent in business success, risk-taking by entrepreneurs, the political power of billionaires, and ways to test the replaceability of inventors and innovations. Scott engages with various perspectives while adding his own thoughts and clarifications on these complex economic and ethical issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his review of 'What We Owe The Future', addressing debates around population ethics, longtermism, and moral philosophy. Longer summary

This post highlights key comments on Scott Alexander's review of William MacAskill's book 'What We Owe The Future'. It covers various reactions and debates around topics like the repugnant conclusion in population ethics, longtermism, moral philosophy, AI risk, and the nature of happiness and suffering. Scott responds to several comments, clarifying his views on philosophy, moral reasoning, and the challenges of population ethics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the use of absurdity arguments, reflecting on his critique of Neom and offering strategies to balance absurdity heuristics with careful reasoning. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on his previous post mocking the Neom project, considering whether his use of the absurdity heuristic was justified. He explores the challenges of relying on absurdity arguments, acknowledging that everything ultimately bottoms out in such arguments. The post discusses when it's appropriate to use absurdity heuristics in communication and personal reasoning, and offers strategies for avoiding absurdity bias. These include calibration training, social epistemology, occasional deep dives into fact-checking, and examining why beliefs come to our attention. Scott concludes that while there's no perfect solution, these approaches can help balance the use of absurdity arguments with more rigorous thinking. Shorter summary

A review of Richard Hanania's book arguing that public choice theory, not grand strategy, explains US foreign policy decisions and their often devastating consequences. Longer summary

This book review discusses Richard Hanania's 'Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy', which argues that public choice theory better explains US foreign policy than the unitary actor model. The review covers the book's key arguments, including how special interest groups shape foreign policy, the incoherence of American interventions, and the devastating effects of sanctions. It also explores the book's relevance to current events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and potential implications for nuclear security and effective altruism. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces his marriage and reflects on finding love, introducing 'micromarriages' as a motivational concept and exploring the rational and romantic aspects of marriage. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces his recent marriage and reflects on his journey to find a partner. He introduces the concept of 'micromarriages' as a motivational tool for those seeking relationships, shares personal anecdotes about meeting his wife, and discusses the significance of marriage contracts. Scott then delves into a more philosophical view of marriage, comparing it to Odysseus' encounter with the Sirens, emphasizing the balance between rational precautions and embracing the beauty of a deep connection. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the misleading use of 'no evidence' in science communication and suggests more nuanced alternatives. Longer summary

The post critiques the use of the phrase 'no evidence' in science communication, arguing that it's misleading and erodes public trust. Scott Alexander shows how the phrase is used inconsistently to mean both 'plausible but not yet proven' and 'definitively false'. He explains that this stems from a misunderstanding of how real truth-seeking works, which should be Bayesian rather than based on a simplistic null hypothesis model. The post concludes by suggesting better ways for journalists to communicate scientific uncertainty, including being more specific about the state of evidence and engaging with the arguments of those who believe differently. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'The Scout Mindset' by Julia Galef, a book on rationality that emphasizes seeking truth over defending beliefs and addresses both intellectual and emotional aspects of clear thinking. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Julia Galef's book 'The Scout Mindset', which aims to teach people how to think more clearly and rationally. The book distinguishes between 'soldier mindset' (defending one's beliefs) and 'scout mindset' (seeking truth). It provides techniques for adopting a scout mindset, including probabilistic thinking and thought experiments. The book also addresses the emotional challenges of changing one's mind and uses examples of admirable people who have done so to normalize the practice. Scott notes that the book goes beyond just teaching rationality techniques and touches on personal growth and becoming a better person. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares insights gained from writing a comprehensive post on lockdown effectiveness, highlighting the complexities and challenges of analyzing such a multifaceted issue. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on writing a comprehensive post about lockdown effectiveness during the COVID-19 pandemic. He discusses the challenges of addressing such a complex, multi-dimensional issue, including the difficulty of comparing different types of costs, the limitations of mathematical models, and the potential for bias in academic research. Scott also notes the varying pandemic experiences across different countries and regions, and the surprising involvement of rationalists and effective altruists in lockdown studies. He emphasizes the importance of considering alternative approaches beyond the typical pro/anti-lockdown debate, and the value of cross-disciplinary research in addressing complex issues. Shorter summary

Scott proposes using prediction markets to fund investigative journalism, potentially solving the issue of funding quality reporting in the digital age. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes using prediction markets to fund investigative reporting, inspired by Hindenburg Research's model of profiting from exposing corporate fraud. He argues that this could solve the problem of funding investigative journalism in the age of unbundled media. The post explores how this might work for political reporting and even for less quantifiable issues like exposing discrimination in institutions. Scott acknowledges potential challenges but suggests that creating more specific prediction markets could address these. He concludes that this system, while unusual, could incentivize truthful reporting and separate serious journalism from 'infotainment'. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander maintains a list of significant mistakes in his blog posts, providing corrections and updates in reverse chronological order. Longer summary

Scott Alexander maintains a list of significant mistakes he has made in his blog posts, providing corrections and updates. He acknowledges errors in data interpretation, misunderstandings of studies, incorrect predictions, and instances where he changed his mind based on new evidence or reader feedback. The list is presented in reverse chronological order and covers a wide range of topics including medicine, economics, psychology, and social issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the media's failure in coronavirus coverage was not about prediction, but about poor probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. Longer summary

This post discusses the media's failure in covering the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that the issue was not primarily one of prediction but of probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. Scott Alexander argues that while predicting the exact course of the pandemic was difficult, the media and experts failed to properly convey and act on the potential risks even when the probability seemed low. He contrasts this with examples of good reasoning from individuals who took the threat seriously early on, not because they were certain it would be catastrophic, but because they understood the importance of preparing for low-probability, high-impact events. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including strategies, mysteries, controversies, and global impacts. Longer summary

This blog post discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the 'hammer and dance' strategy, smoking cessation, mysteries surrounding Japan's low case numbers, takeout food safety, ventilator numbers, the UK's policy reversal, density and infection rates, hydroxychloroquine controversy, concerns about developing countries, donation opportunities, cost-benefit analysis of lockdowns, US stimulus bill negotiations, and media coverage of the pandemic across the political spectrum. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews evidence on face mask effectiveness against coronavirus, concluding they likely offer some protection despite CDC recommendations against general public use. Longer summary

This post examines the effectiveness of face masks in preventing coronavirus transmission. It reviews theoretical reasons, case-control studies, randomized trials, and laboratory studies on surgical masks and N95 respirators. The author concludes that while not perfect, surgical masks likely offer some protection against infection in high-risk situations. The post also discusses the CDC's recommendations against mask use for the general public, suggesting this may be due to high standards of proof in medical communication rather than intentional deception. The author ultimately recommends considering mask use in high-risk situations if supplies are not limited, while emphasizing that masks are not a substitute for avoiding such situations when possible. Shorter summary

Scott reviews 'Reframing Superintelligence' by Eric Drexler, which proposes future AI as specialized services rather than general agents, contrasting with Nick Bostrom's scenarios. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Eric Drexler's book 'Reframing Superintelligence', which proposes that future AI may develop as a collection of specialized superintelligent services rather than general-purpose agents. The post compares this view to Nick Bostrom's more alarming scenarios in 'Superintelligence'. Scott discusses the potential safety advantages of AI services, their limitations, and some remaining concerns. He reflects on why he didn't consider this perspective earlier and acknowledges the ongoing debate in the AI alignment community about these different models of future AI development. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Secular Cycles', which proposes pre-industrial civilizations follow ~300 year cycles of growth and decline, examining the evidence and potential implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the book 'Secular Cycles' by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov, which proposes that pre-industrial civilizations follow a cyclical pattern of growth, stagnation, and decline over about 300 years. The authors argue this cycle is driven by population dynamics and elite overproduction. Scott examines their evidence, methodology, and case studies, finding the theory intriguing but remaining somewhat skeptical. He considers potential implications for understanding history and modern society, while acknowledging the theory may not directly apply to the post-industrial world. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering recent studies, unusual historical events, technological developments, and various curiosities across multiple fields. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and news items on diverse topics. It covers studies on pornography's effects, unusual military proposals, charter schools' success, climate change predictions, animal rights, restorative justice in schools, parenting advice, sexual selection theory, AI-generated content, breastfeeding patterns, visualization of classical music, Soviet whaling, cancel culture, housing legislation, embryo screening, retractions of scientific studies, gene drives, drug pricing, UFO sightings, cryopreservation, air conditioning efficiency, genetic testing for medication response, social justice terminology trends, napping benefits, nootropics survey results, Bitcoin price surge, transformer architecture in machine learning, fact-checking errors in popular books, challenges to persistence research, fringe ideologies in Japan, AI progress on language understanding, climate change risks, and various other curiosities and scientific findings. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his article about increasing competition in college admissions, covering various factors and perspectives on the issue. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's original article about college admissions. The comments cover various aspects, including factors influencing college selectivity, the impact of college prestige on careers, the role of rankings and admissions rates, the importance of extracurricular activities, the influence of student loans, and comparisons between the US and Canadian university systems. Some commenters offer personal experiences and perspectives on the increasing competitiveness in college admissions and other fields. The post also touches on broader themes of increasing competition in society and possible explanations for this trend. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and news items, covering topics from historical anecdotes to recent scientific studies and cultural trends. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from various fields. It covers topics such as historical anecdotes, scientific studies, political developments, technological innovations, and cultural trends. The author, Scott Alexander, provides brief summaries and sometimes adds his own commentary or humorous observations. The post touches on subjects like cryptocurrency, open access scientific publishing, genetic research, social media effects on polarization, and artificial intelligence developments. It also includes updates on ongoing stories and mysteries, such as the illness affecting US diplomats and the discovery of ancient skeletons in Tibet. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links covering AI, economics, politics, science, and culture, offering brief comments and insights on each topic. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various news articles, studies, and interesting tidbits. It covers a wide range of topics including AI, economics, politics, science, and culture. Some notable items include: a new AI that draws pictures based on captions, a study on the effectiveness of ballpoint pens for emergency tracheotomies, the cancellation of a basic income experiment, weaknesses in Xi Jinping's rule, and a study showing Hitler's speeches didn't measurably increase Nazi support. The post also touches on topics like climate change, antimalarial bed nets, polygenic scores for disease risk, and a replication of a famous psychology study on smiling and happiness. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott providing brief comments or insights on many of the links. Shorter summary