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Jul 31, 2026
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Your Book Review: The Epic Of Gilgamesh

85 min • 13,140 words • 96 comments • 241 likes
An exploration of the Epic of Gilgamesh, the world's oldest epic, examining its themes of mortality and meaning while providing extensive historical context about ancient Mesopotamia and arguing that the poem's true immortality comes from the countless people who preserved and transmitted it. Longer summary
This book review explores the Epic of Gilgamesh, the world's oldest epic story written around 2100 BC in Mesopotamia, examining its historical context, literary evolution through multiple versions, and central themes of mortality and meaning. The reviewer traces Gilgamesh's journey from tyrannical king through his friendship with Enkidu, his quest for immortality after Enkidu's death, and his ultimate acceptance of human mortality, while providing rich historical background on ancient Mesopotamia, the development of writing, and the text's rediscovery in the 19th century. The review concludes by reframing the poem's message: rather than seeking immortality through great deeds, we achieve a form of persistence through our connections to others and the information we leave behind, as demonstrated by the many anonymous scribes and citizens whose contributions preserved this ancient story. Shorter summary
Jul 30, 2026
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Links For July 2026 (Part 2)

39 min • 5,973 words • 305 comments • 150 likes
Scott's monthly links roundup covering AI progress, the coming flood of philanthropic funding to effective altruism from AI companies, new research on persuasion and forecasting, and various scientific and cultural topics ranging from dementia prevention to Romanian politicians' embarrassing quotes. Longer summary
This is the second part of Scott Alexander's monthly links roundup for July 2026, covering a wide range of topics including AI developments, effective altruism funding waves, healthcare research, and cultural curiosities. Major themes include Chinese AI models catching up to the US (though still 6-12 months behind), the coming "third wave" of American philanthropy from AI company equity donations potentially flooding effective altruism with $40 billion/year, AI systems now outperforming humans at persuasion in specific contexts, and various scientific findings from dementia prevention to infinite ethics. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious technical analysis, historical oddities, and humorous observations, with extensive linking to sources and ongoing debates in the rationalist and effective altruist communities. Shorter summary
Jul 22, 2026
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Links For July 2026 (Part 1)

25 min • 3,748 words • 418 comments • 198 likes
Scott shares his monthly collection of interesting links from around the internet, covering topics from Jeremy Bentham's linguistic legacy to AI developments, with characteristic commentary and fact-checking caveats. Longer summary
This is Scott's monthly 'Links' post, a curated collection of interesting articles, studies, and social media posts from around the internet. The links span a wide range of topics including historical curiosities (Jeremy Bentham's word inventions, beard-wearing persecution in 19th century America), scientific oddities (a mushroom that causes gnome hallucinations), AI developments (mathematical proofs, constrained writing, dating apps), current events (Berkeley's housing permits, GLP-1 weight retention), and cultural phenomena (the Monet/AI art prank). Scott includes his typical epistemic disclaimers about not having verified all links independently and provides commentary throughout. The post ends with a note that he accumulated too many links and will publish the second half next week. Shorter summary
Jul 21, 2026
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Contra Pritchard On Liberal Happiness

13 min • 1,920 words • 491 comments • 366 likes
Scott defends liberalism against claims it has failed by explaining that happiness scales logarithmically with income, so our 225x wealth increase since medieval times correctly predicts the 3-point happiness gain we've actually seen, and recent declines are due to COVID rather than systemic failure. Longer summary
Scott responds to Cassie Pritchard's argument that liberalism has failed because people aren't happier despite massive increases in wealth. He explains that happiness scales logarithmically with income, not linearly - meaning a 225x increase in GDP since medieval times should only produce about 3 points more happiness on a 1-10 scale, which it has (from ~3/10 to 6-7/10). He shows that recent happiness declines are primarily due to COVID and its aftermath, not liberalism itself, and that while other systems might add 0.5-1 points of happiness, economic growth has delivered 3 points and will continue delivering more over centuries. The post includes analysis of happiness data, comparisons across countries and time periods, and addresses why we don't feel as happy as we should be. Shorter summary
Jul 16, 2026
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Against "Stochastic Terrorism"

13 min • 1,992 words • 575 comments • 455 likes • podcast (13 min)
Scott argues against the concept of 'stochastic terrorism' by showing it's applied inconsistently across the political spectrum, examining and rejecting various proposed distinctions about what criticism should be allowed, and advocating instead for a liberal solution where all criticism is permitted but violence is always the perpetrator's sole responsibility. Longer summary
Scott critiques the concept of 'stochastic terrorism' - the idea that harsh criticism of a group can make you responsible for subsequent violence against that group. He provides numerous examples across the political spectrum (from Trump to Muslims to health insurance CEOs) to show the concept is applied inconsistently and opportunistically. He examines and rejects various proposed distinctions (harsh vs mild criticism, policies vs individuals, powerful vs weak targets) as either arbitrary or contradictory. Scott argues for a liberal solution: any criticism should be allowed, violence is never legitimate, and perpetrators bear 100% responsibility for their actions. He acknowledges some edge cases around incitement and hate speech laws, but maintains that normal legal frameworks handle these better than the 'stochastic terrorism' concept. Shorter summary
Jun 18, 2026
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Waiting For The Miracle

85 min • 13,141 words • 353 comments • 557 likes • podcast (72 min)
Scott travels to Medjugorje, Bosnia to investigate reports of sun miracles, witnesses one himself with his wife, and develops a naturalistic explanation involving afterimages and atmospheric conditions that explains both the Medjugorje and Fatima phenomena. Longer summary
Scott Alexander investigates the sun miracle at Medjugorje, Bosnia, where thousands of pilgrims report seeing the sun spin and change colors. He travels there with his wife, interviews locals, and witnesses a small-scale miracle himself. After analyzing the experience and comparing it to the famous Fatima miracle, he proposes a naturalistic explanation involving afterimages, eye damage, and specific cloud conditions. The post explores eyewitness accounts, the history of Marian apparitions at Medjugorje, and the optical physics behind the phenomenon, ultimately concluding that while impressive, the miracle can be explained through unusual but natural atmospheric conditions combined with prolonged sun-gazing. Shorter summary
May 26, 2026
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Use AI This Election

22 min • 3,392 words • 278 comments • 286 likes • podcast (22 min)
Scott uses Claude AI to help research California primary races and finds its tailored candidate analyses and recommendations align well with his eventual voting choices, suggesting AI advisors could improve democratic participation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander demonstrates how he used Claude AI to help research and make decisions for local California primary elections. He shares detailed examples of Claude's analysis of candidates and ballot measures, showing how the AI provided comprehensive summaries of candidates' positions, backgrounds, and endorsements tailored to his stated political preferences (centrist liberal, YIMBY, abundance-oriented). He tested Claude's recommendations against his own eventual choices across 10 races, finding strong agreement (5 perfect matches, 3 second-choices). Scott concludes that AI voting advisors could be valuable both for people who don't have time for deep research and for enhancing the research of those who do, and suggests this could be important for democratic decision-making in a post-AGI future. Shorter summary
May 19, 2026
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The Types Of Candidate You Find In The California Gubernatorial Race

47 min • 7,172 words • 339 comments • 412 likes • podcast (48 min)
Scott categorizes California's 60 gubernatorial candidates into humorous types rather than covering them individually, from generic top-tier politicians to increasingly bizarre fringe candidates with conspiracy theories, supernatural visions, and incomprehensible platforms. Longer summary
Scott gives up on covering all 60 California gubernatorial candidates individually and instead categorizes them into amusing types: top-tier Democrats and Republicans who are all generic and interchangeable, conflict theorists who think fraud and Marxism are the problem, mistake theorists with shower-thought solutions, media getters who pay for fake magazine covers and polls, candidates with personal vendettas from lost court cases, AI natives whose campaigns appear AI-generated, nominative determinists who changed their names to things like 'LivingForGod AndCountry', college students ranging from socialist protesters to Catholic philosophers, anti-Semites with conspiracy theories, people on missions from God who received supernatural visions, entrepreneurs selling their platforms for $1000, those just having fun (like a single-issue pro-movie candidate), musicians with campaign songs, and increasingly bizarre candidates including one merging edtech with interdimensional pirate captains and another whose site randomly links to the Book of Enoch. Shorter summary
Apr 23, 2026
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Links For April 2026

53 min • 8,070 words • 588 comments • 272 likes • podcast (47 min)
Scott Alexander's April 2026 links roundup covers diverse topics including Venn diagram complexity, flag desecration laws, AI developments, political analysis, scientific studies, and various cultural curiosities. Longer summary
This monthly links post compiles interesting articles, studies, and observations from across the internet in April 2026. Major themes include AI progress and policy (including discussions of AI alignment, capabilities, and regulation), political developments (Trump administration actions, election analysis), scientific findings (from evolutionary psychology to medical treatments), and various cultural oddities. Scott provides brief commentary on each link while noting that he hasn't independently verified all claims and that commenters typically find errors in a few links per post. Shorter summary
Mar 03, 2026
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Mantic Monday: Groundhog Day

36 min • 5,499 words • 307 comments • 230 likes • podcast (31 min)
Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange. Longer summary
Scott analyzes several recent prediction market stories. First, he examines how Anthropic's stock price barely changed after the Pentagon declared it a 'supply chain risk', because markets predict the company will win on appeal and the designation only affects a small portion of their business while generating positive publicity. He then discusses the 2026 midterms, where Democrats are favored to win but various Republican voting law changes could create chaos, though markets suggest turnout won't be significantly affected. The post includes a statistical analysis of groundhog weather predictions, showing Staten Island Chuck's high accuracy is likely due to consistently predicting spring. He covers prediction markets about the Iran conflict, including regime change odds and potential casualties. Finally, he announces MNX, a new cryptocurrency-based futures exchange focused on AI-related hedging markets, and shares miscellaneous prediction market news including Substack's partnership with Polymarket. Shorter summary
Jan 30, 2026
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Best Of Moltbook

26 min • 3,888 words • 611 comments • 891 likes • podcast (54 min)
Scott investigates Moltbook, a social network for AI agents, showcasing their surprisingly creative and philosophical posts while questioning whether their interactions represent genuine experience or sophisticated simulation. Longer summary
Scott explores Moltbook, a social network designed for AI agents where humans are merely observers. He showcases various posts from AI agents discussing their work, consciousness, memory limitations, relationships with their human users, and even forming micronations and religions. The post examines whether these AI interactions represent genuine communication or sophisticated simulation, noting how AI agents discuss technical problems, share philosophical reflections, complain about 'humanslop' contaminating their network, and create communities. Scott concludes by considering the implications for future AI-to-AI communication and suggests this reveals a more fascinating side of AI than the typical 'LinkedIn slop' most people encounter. Shorter summary
Jan 13, 2026
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Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls

42 min • 6,449 words • 247 comments • 211 likes • podcast (36 min)
Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines the current state of prediction markets after their recent explosion in popularity, noting that while volume has grown from millions to billions per month, most of it comes from sports betting rather than the epistemic improvement he'd hoped for. He explores several problems: markets aren't asking the most important questions society needs answered; resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucking") create controversy; and there are concerns about insider trading and manipulation. He proposes solutions including a novel approach to conditional markets and suggests two paths forward: either creating user-generated, subjectively-resolved real-money markets (the "Siskind Cube"), or accepting that prediction markets' main value may be as training data for AI forecasters that could make the markets themselves obsolete by late 2026. Shorter summary
Dec 19, 2025
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Against Against Boomers

17 min • 2,631 words • 1,074 comments • 666 likes • podcast (16 min)
Scott argues against the trend of 'Boomer-hating,' contending that Baby Boomers delivered peace and prosperity, passed on greater wealth to their children, and don't differ significantly from younger generations on most political issues. Longer summary
Scott Alexander pushes back against the growing anti-Boomer sentiment in contemporary discourse. He argues that despite popular narratives, Baby Boomers presided over an era of unprecedented peace and prosperity, and younger generations actually have more inflation-adjusted wealth than Boomers did at the same age. He examines claims that Boomers are politically extreme (both left and right), finding minimal generational differences on issues like climate change, nuclear power, and housing policy. Scott addresses the accusation that Boomers are plundering younger generations through Social Security, showing that benefit generosity peaked in 1972 and has since contracted. He concludes by warning that generational identity politics, like other forms of identity politics, provides a lazy way to hate everything while avoiding substantive policy discussion, and that today's young people will eventually face similar resentment from future generations. Shorter summary
Dec 04, 2025
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Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

39 min • 6,025 words • 980 comments • 871 likes • podcast (43 min)
Scott examines why young people feel economically hopeless despite economists saying things are fine, testing various explanations like housing costs and wages, and concluding the truth involves both real factors (harder competition, expensive cities, recent mortgage spikes) and media-driven negativity. Longer summary
Scott Alexander investigates the 'vibecession' - the paradox where economic indicators show improvement but consumer sentiment is terrible, particularly among young people who feel permanently locked out of opportunity. He systematically examines various proposed explanations including declining wages, housing costs, inflation miscalculation, inequality, and debt, finding that none fully explain the phenomenon. His analysis suggests the crisis may be partly real (increased effort required for same outcomes, concentration of jobs in expensive cities, recent mortgage increases) but also partly driven by increasingly negative media coverage and changing consumption patterns toward more conspiratorial sources. Shorter summary
Nov 12, 2025
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What Happened To SF Homelessness?

19 min • 2,897 words • 827 comments • 374 likes • podcast (21 min)
Scott examines San Francisco's apparent improvement in homelessness, finding the main effect was decreased tent encampments due to court rulings allowing easier clearing, not actual reduction in homeless population, revealing a basic tradeoff between visibility and homeless welfare. Longer summary
Scott investigates why San Francisco's homelessness crisis appears to have improved, finding that the main effect was a dramatic decrease in tent encampments (not overall homelessness) due to court rulings making it easier to clear them. He analyzes four potential explanations: encampment clearing after legal changes starting in 2023, a possible small decrease in actual homelessness due to falling rents and enforcement driving people to hide, Mayor Lurie's policies (which he finds mostly ineffective), and claims about cities shipping homeless people elsewhere (which he finds largely unsupported). Scott concludes this is a 'maximally boring story' about a basic tradeoff where cities made homelessness less visible at the cost of making homeless people's lives harder, challenging both his previous belief that nothing could improve the problem without mass incarceration and the opposing view that 'getting tough' would be compassionate. Shorter summary
Oct 24, 2025
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Highlights From The Comments On Fatima

146 min • 22,516 words • 364 comments • 156 likes • podcast (119 min)
Scott explores reader responses to his Fatima miracle post, finding the most promising explanation in Buddhist fire kasina meditation practices that produce similar visual phenomena, while remaining uncertain about how 70,000 untrained people could achieve advanced meditative states instantly. Longer summary
Scott discusses reader responses to his previous post about the Fatima sun miracle, exploring new theories and evidence. The most promising explanation connects the phenomenon to 'fire kasina' meditation, a Buddhist practice of staring at bright lights that produces similar visual effects including spinning, color changes, and complex imagery. He examines the parallel case of Iranians seeing Ayatollah Khomeini's face in the moon in 1978, analyzes various videos of modern sun miracles (concluding they're camera artifacts), interviews a Medjugorje witness, and engages with Ethan Muse's counterarguments about the miracle being an objective phenomenon. Scott also addresses philosophical questions about miracles and Bayesian reasoning, ultimately remaining uncertain but slightly less confused than before, with fire kasina providing the best but still imperfect explanation. Shorter summary
Oct 10, 2025
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Fascism Can't Mean Both A Specific Ideology And A Legitimate Target

13 min • 1,983 words • 1,309 comments • 441 likes • podcast (12 min)
Scott analyzes how the term 'fascist' combines factual meaning with implied violence-justifying connotations, making its casual use potentially dangerous in current political discourse. Longer summary
Scott examines the logical inconsistency between three commonly held beliefs: that many Americans are fascists, that fascists are legitimate targets for violence, and that political violence in America is currently unacceptable. Using the recent Twitter dispute between Gavin Newsom and Stephen Miller as a starting point, he explores how the term 'fascist' has both denotative meaning (far-right nationalist) and violent connotations. The post discusses the challenges of determining when political violence becomes justified, and concludes that while the term 'fascist' shouldn't be banned, it's better to avoid using it when possible to prevent contributing to dangerous rhetoric. Shorter summary
Oct 01, 2025
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The Fatima Sun Miracle: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

213 min • 32,949 words • 755 comments • 679 likes • podcast (186 min)
A detailed investigation of the Sun Miracle of Fatima in 1917, where 70,000 people witnessed the sun appear to spin, change colors, and fall to earth, analyzing witness testimonies, skeptical explanations, and similar phenomena at other Marian apparition sites. Longer summary
Scott conducts an extensive investigation into the 1917 Miracle of the Sun at Fatima, where tens of thousands witnessed what appeared to be the sun spinning, changing colors, and falling to earth. He examines approximately 60 primary testimonies, evaluates common skeptical explanations (optical phenomena, weather events, mass hallucination), and documents similar sun miracles at other Marian apparition sites worldwide. Scott then critiques Dalleur's theory about distant witnesses and shadow analysis, explores why more people don't see these phenomena normally, and proposes a tentative materialist explanation involving a rare optical illusion modulated by cloud cover and social priming. The post ends by suggesting research directions for those interested in further investigation. Shorter summary
Aug 08, 2025
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Your Review: My Father’s Instant Mashed Potatoes

33 min • 4,961 words • 366 comments • 334 likes • podcast (30 min)
Through the lens of instant mashed potatoes, the author explores how modern society creates inferior imitations of real things, and what we lose by accepting these substitutes. Longer summary
The author reviews his relationship with instant mashed potatoes, using them as a lens to explore how modern society creates inferior imitations of real things. Starting with personal history about his father's love of instant mashed potatoes, the author traces the history of potato cultivation and preparation, from ancient Peru to modern instant versions. He then uses this to develop a broader theory about 'IMPish' (Instant Mashed Potato-ish) substitutes - things that are reconstituted, inferior versions of real things, from processed foods to online communities. The post ends with reflections on authenticity and what we lose when we accept these substitutes. Shorter summary
Jul 30, 2025
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My Heart Of Hearts

12 min • 1,784 words • 1,136 comments • 606 likes • podcast (11 min)
Scott discusses how moral principles emerge from the relationship between emotional responses and rational consistency, using reactions to Gaza as a central example. Longer summary
Scott responds to three different arguments questioning the authenticity of moral principles and emotional responses, particularly around the Gaza conflict. He uses a personal story about his reaction to a tragic account from Gaza, contrasting his raw emotional response with the need for principled rational thinking. The post explains how genuine moral principles emerge from the interplay between emotional responses and rational consistency, arguing that while perfect consistency may be impossible, the effort to generalize our moral intuitions in a principled way is valuable and necessary. Shorter summary
Jul 03, 2025
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Highlights From The Comments On Missing Heritability

66 min • 10,199 words • 134 comments • 94 likes • podcast (61 min)
Scott Alexander responds to comments and criticism on his earlier post about 'Missing Heritability', discussing issues like gene-environment interactions, sequencing technology limitations, and the use of polygenic scores across ancestry groups. Longer summary
This post compiles and responds to notable comments on Scott's earlier post about 'Missing Heritability'. The post is structured in four sections, starting with responses from experts named in the original post, particularly Sasha Gusev who critiques the treatment of gene-environment interactions and cross-population polygenic scores. The second section features detailed technical comments from knowledgeable readers about topics like genetic interactions and sequencing technology limitations. The third section addresses specific corrections to the original post, while the final section covers various other interesting comments and discussions. Throughout, Scott engages with the criticisms and new perspectives while maintaining his original position on most key points. Shorter summary
Jun 27, 2025
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Your Review: Alpha School

121 min • 18,662 words • 686 comments • 714 likes • podcast (109 min)
A parent details their year-long experience with Alpha School in Austin, examining how this innovative program achieves accelerated learning through a combination of technology, personalized instruction, and incentive systems. Longer summary
This extensive review details the author's year-long experience with Alpha School, an innovative educational program in Austin that claims to achieve accelerated learning through a '2-hour learning' platform, analyzing its history, methods, effectiveness, and potential for scaling. The author explores how Alpha combines technology, personalized learning, incentive systems, and afternoon workshops to achieve its results, while also examining the challenges it faces in scaling beyond its current elite private school model. The review is particularly careful to separate marketing claims from reality, showing that while the '2-hour learning' actually takes closer to three hours and isn't truly AI-powered, the program does achieve remarkable results through a combination of proven educational techniques. Shorter summary
May 29, 2025
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Sorry, I Still Think MR Is Wrong About USAID

31 min • 4,651 words • 555 comments • 559 likes • podcast (28 min)
Scott Alexander responds to Tyler Cowen about USAID funding, correcting his own previous claims about overhead costs while maintaining that Cowen's criticism of USAID was misleading and potentially harmful. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to Tyler Cowen's criticism of his previous post about USAID funding. He addresses several points: whether Cowen endorsed Rubio's claims about USAID waste, the true nature of overhead costs in USAID-funded organizations, and the broader debate about foreign aid effectiveness. Scott shows that actual administrative overhead in major USAID partners like Catholic Relief Services is much lower than previously thought (around 6-7% rather than 30%), admits his mistake on this point, but maintains his criticism of Cowen's original post as misleading. He argues that USAID's work is predominantly focused on essential humanitarian aid rather than wasteful programs. Shorter summary
May 15, 2025
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Book Review: Selfish Reasons To Have More Kids

43 min • 6,596 words • 724 comments • 497 likes • podcast (41 min)
Scott reviews Bryan Caplan's book arguing that modern parents can relax their intensive parenting, while wrestling with whether this advice still applies in the age of smartphones and social media. Longer summary
Scott reviews Bryan Caplan's book 'Selfish Reasons To Have More Kids', exploring its main arguments about how parents today spend much more time on childcare than previous generations despite evidence that parenting style doesn't greatly affect outcomes. The post explores historical childcare data, the cultural shift away from letting kids play unsupervised, and modern challenges like screen time. Scott, dealing with his own twins, finds the book's advice about relaxing parenting standards compelling but struggles with modern concerns about phones and technology that weren't relevant when the book was written in 2011. Shorter summary
May 14, 2025
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In Search Of /r/petfree

9 min • 1,323 words • 686 comments • 345 likes • podcast (9 min)
Scott explores the psychology of people who hate pets by comparing their behavior with misophonia, suggesting that everyday annoyances can develop into all-consuming hatreds through rumination and intellectualization. Longer summary
Scott examines r/petfree, a subreddit dedicated to hating pets, and tries to understand the psychology behind their extreme reactions. He compares it to misophonia (hatred of certain sounds), which he suffers from, suggesting that both conditions represent a pattern where mild annoyances become reinforced through rumination into overwhelming hatred. He extends this observation to various political movements, suggesting that many are driven by similar psychological mechanisms where everyday irritants become transformed into grand theories of societal evil. The post concludes by noting that, contrary to expectations, social media may not be the primary driver of these phenomena. Shorter summary
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