A review of 'Great and Desperate Cures' by Elliot Valenstein, which examines the history of lobotomy and psychosurgery, explaining how tens of thousands of patients underwent dangerous brain operations from the 1930s-1950s despite poor evidence of effectiveness. Longer summary

The post reviews 'Great and Desperate Cures' (1986) by psychologist Elliot Valenstein, exploring how lobotomy became widespread despite its horrific consequences. The review details the procedure itself (inserting an ice-pick-like instrument through the eye socket into the brain), then examines six factors Valenstein identifies for its acceptance: desperate patients and families, physician ambition (especially Egas Moniz and Walter Freeman), uncritical acceptance by researchers and media, territorial disputes between medical specialties, and cold economics. The post includes extensive details about key figures, particularly Freeman's aggressive promotion of transorbital lobotomy and his traveling surgery roadshows. It discusses patient outcomes, the lack of theoretical justification, media hype, and the procedure's eventual replacement by psychoactive drugs. The review concludes by reflecting on modern parallels and the tragic story of Howard Dully, lobotomized at age twelve, arguing that while Freeman likely had good intentions, the safeguards that might have prevented such harm were inadequate then and remain concerning today. Shorter summary

Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions. Longer summary

Scott discusses the emergence of AI superforecasters that are now matching or slightly exceeding top human forecasters in prediction accuracy. He describes how these AI systems work (using scaffolding around frontier models like GPT/Claude), demonstrates their use with examples from FutureSearch and Preseen, and analyzes their performance on platforms like Metaculus where they're competing in tournaments against humans. The post explores both near-term implications (AI forecasters being easier to access than human superforecasters, potentially influencing policy and business decisions) and longer-term possibilities (AI forecasters serving as an 'opinion layer' for AI systems, transformation of prediction markets into AI-vs-AI competitions). Scott argues these developments could be genuinely beneficial, giving people access to superhuman forecasting ability just as AI threatens other aspects of society. Shorter summary

Scott argues that Viktor Orban's election loss doesn't vindicate him or disprove concerns about democratic backsliding, since autocrats can do many undemocratic things and still lose elections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to commentary suggesting that Viktor Orban's recent election loss proves critics who called him authoritarian were overreacting. He argues that democracy versus dictatorship exists on a spectrum, and that Orban engaged in numerous undemocratic practices (media control, gerrymandering, phone tapping, etc.) even though he ultimately lost. Scott provides historical examples of dictators and autocrats who also lost elections (Pinochet, Milosevic, Putin, Chavez), showing that losing an election doesn't retroactively prove a leader wasn't undermining democracy. He concludes by connecting this to Trump, acknowledging he initially dismissed concerns about Trump threatening democracy but changed his mind after the 2020 election and January 6, and argues we shouldn't discard the "democratic backsliding" framework just because Orban lost. Shorter summary

Scott examines how American political discourse absorbs European narratives that don't fit the US context, particularly around immigration and crime statistics. Longer summary

Scott argues that American political discourse sometimes absorbs European issues that don't apply to the US context. He gives two main examples: the narrative about generational wealth transfer through pensions (which happens in Europe but not America), and conservative talking points about immigrants being criminals and welfare recipients (largely true in parts of Europe, largely false in America). He provides detailed statistics showing that most US immigrant groups, including asylum seekers, have lower crime rates than native-born Americans, contrasting this with higher rates in countries like Germany. Scott suggests both liberals and conservatives avoid acknowledging this difference because it's politically inconvenient, but argues liberals should directly challenge conservatives to focus on American rather than European data. Shorter summary

Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the current state of prediction markets after their recent explosion in popularity, noting that while volume has grown from millions to billions per month, most of it comes from sports betting rather than the epistemic improvement he'd hoped for. He explores several problems: markets aren't asking the most important questions society needs answered; resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucking") create controversy; and there are concerns about insider trading and manipulation. He proposes solutions including a novel approach to conditional markets and suggests two paths forward: either creating user-generated, subjectively-resolved real-money markets (the "Siskind Cube"), or accepting that prediction markets' main value may be as training data for AI forecasters that could make the markets themselves obsolete by late 2026. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander and 1DaySooner outline potential positive health policy initiatives that could emerge under three key Trump administration health appointees: Jim O'Neill, Marty Makary, and Jay Bhattacharya. Longer summary

This post discusses potential health policy proposals under a hypothetical second Trump administration, focusing on three key appointees and their possible initiatives. The piece examines Jim O'Neill as Deputy Secretary of HHS, highlighting his potential work on organ donation compensation and longevity research; Marty Makary as FDA Commissioner, discussing FDA transparency and regulatory improvements; and Jay Bhattacharya as NIH Director, exploring research funding reforms and challenge trials. Written in collaboration with 1DaySooner, the post specifically focuses on optimistic scenarios that could emerge from these appointments. Shorter summary

Scott presents results from his AI art Turing test showing most people struggled to distinguish AI from human art, with professionals doing slightly better and participants unexpectedly preferring AI art. Longer summary

Scott analyzes the results of his AI art Turing test where 11,000 people tried to distinguish between human and AI-generated art. The median score was 60%, only slightly above chance, showing most people had difficulty identifying AI art. Participants tended to judge images based on style rather than subtle quality differences, incorrectly assuming traditional styles were human and digital art was AI. Interestingly, people slightly preferred AI art even when they claimed to hate it. However, professional artists and AI critics scored better at detection, suggesting they may notice subtle flaws that others miss. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of various news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, technological advancements, cultural phenomena, and historical anecdotes. The post is structured as a numbered list, with each item briefly summarizing a piece of news or information. Some notable items include a new schizophrenia drug approval, YouGov polling results on various historical figures, findings on genetic IQ changes over time, and updates on AI technology and its implications. Shorter summary

A compilation of 50 diverse news items and links from September 2024, covering topics from politics and economics to science and technology. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of 50 diverse links and news items from September 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including politics, science, technology, economics, and social issues. Some notable items include discussions on kidney donation compensation, personality genetics, fertility rates in Israel, drug decriminalization in Oregon, AI regulation in California, and various political and economic analyses. The post also includes commentary on recent studies, books, and social phenomena. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Family That Couldn't Sleep' by D. T. Max, discussing its exploration of prion diseases and their impact, with updated perspectives on the book's conclusions. Longer summary

This review discusses 'The Family That Couldn't Sleep' by D. T. Max, a book about prion diseases published in 2006. The review covers the book's exploration of various prion diseases, including fatal familial insomnia, kuru, mad cow disease, and chronic wasting disease. It highlights the book's focus on the historical, scientific, and cultural aspects of these diseases, as well as the key figures involved in prion research. The reviewer also provides updated information and critiques some of the book's conclusions in light of more recent research. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explains why 'doing something' about mentally ill homeless people is more complex than it seems, detailing current processes and challenges in implementing alternatives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the common call to 'do something' about mentally ill homeless people, explaining why seemingly simple solutions are often impractical or ineffective. He details the current process for dealing with disruptive mentally ill homeless individuals, highlighting its limitations and the numerous challenges in implementing alternative approaches. The post emphasizes the need for specific, well-thought-out plans rather than vague demands for action, and critiques articles that criticize 'soft' approaches without offering concrete, feasible alternatives. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a $100,000 debate on COVID-19 origins, where the zoonotic hypothesis unexpectedly won against the lab leak theory. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews a debate on the origins of COVID-19 between Saar Wilf, who supports the lab leak hypothesis, and Peter Miller, who argues for zoonotic origin. The debate was part of a $100,000 challenge by Wilf's Rootclaim project. Miller won decisively, with both judges ruling in favor of zoonotic origin. Alexander analyzes the debate format, arguments, and aftermath, discussing issues with Bayesian reasoning, extreme probabilities, and the challenges of resolving complex scientific questions through debate. Shorter summary

A compilation of 55 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, including scientific studies, historical anecdotes, cultural phenomena, and technological developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 55 diverse links and brief commentaries on various topics, ranging from scientific studies and historical anecdotes to cultural phenomena and technological developments. The author covers subjects such as economic miracles, AI developments, religious trends, and social issues. Many items include claims or studies that the author finds interesting or surprising, often with a skeptical or analytical perspective. The post also includes updates on previous topics discussed by the author and references to other bloggers or researchers in the rationalist and effective altruism communities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander's monthly links post covers diverse topics from AI developments and genetic research to historical anecdotes and local news, with a mix of serious analysis and humor. Longer summary

This links post covers a wide range of topics, including recent research on the Flynn Effect, factors influencing fertility rates, genetic engineering, AI developments, political issues, historical anecdotes, and local Bay Area news. Scott highlights interesting studies, cultural phenomena, and recent events, often with a humorous or ironic tone. He touches on subjects like universal basic income experiments, the formation of elite groups, and changes in political dynamics. The post also includes several visual elements like unusual architectural designs and tattoos. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023, covering topics from unusual stories and scientific research to AI developments and global trends. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023. The post covers a wide range of topics, including unusual stories, scientific research, political developments, AI progress and concerns, cultural phenomena, and more. Notable items include a real-life 'Cocaine Bear' story, an adversarial collaboration on income and happiness, concerns about AI development, and updates on global trends like birth rates in Africa. The post also includes several short fiction recommendations and humorous AI-related anecdotes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of hyperstitious slurs, showing how words and actions become offensive through belief, and discusses when to adopt new language norms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of hyperstitious slurs, which are words or phrases that become offensive primarily because people believe they are offensive. He explains how this process works, using examples like the word 'Jap' and 'Negro'. The post then extends this concept to actions, images, and even facts, showing how they can become signals of offensive intent through similar processes. Scott criticizes the unnecessary creation of new slurs, like banning 'field work' in academia, and discusses his personal approach to adopting new language norms. He suggests joining these cascades about 70% of the way through as a compromise between principle and self-preservation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that even seemingly extreme media misinformation usually involves misleading presentation of true facts rather than outright fabrication, examining several reader-provided counterexamples. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticisms of his previous post about media rarely lying by examining several examples readers provided. He argues that even in extreme cases like Alex Jones' Sandy Hook conspiracy theories or claims about election fraud, media sources are typically highlighting true but misleading facts rather than outright fabricating information. Scott contends this matters because it means efforts to censor 'misinformation' will always require subjective judgment calls rather than being a straightforward process of removing falsehoods. He suggests people want to believe bad actors are doing something fundamentally different than good faith reasoning, but in reality most are just reasoning poorly under uncertainty. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the reliability of dietary supplements, finding that while issues exist, most are not completely fake as some media reports claim. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the trustworthiness of dietary supplements, debunking widespread claims that most are completely fake. He analyzes studies, consumer lab reports, and industry insider accounts to conclude that while there are issues in the supplement industry, outright fraud is rare, especially for common vitamins and minerals. More complex botanicals and trendy supplements may have more variability, but complete absence of active ingredients is uncommon. Scott suggests consumers should be discerning, especially with lesser-known products, but notes that for many supplements, precise dosing may not be critical. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Will MacAskill's 'What We Owe The Future', a book arguing for longtermism and considering our moral obligations to future generations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Will MacAskill's book 'What We Owe The Future', which argues for longtermism - the idea that we should prioritize helping future generations. The review covers the book's key arguments about moral obligations to future people, ways to affect the long-term future, and population ethics dilemmas. Scott expresses some skepticism about aspects of longtermism and population ethics, but acknowledges the book's thought-provoking ideas and practical suggestions for having positive long-term impact. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting links and news items from July, covering topics from linguistics and AI to politics and economics. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from July. Topics range from linguistic analysis of Reddit insults, to COVID-19 learning loss, to AI art generation, to political and economic news. Scott also comments on recent scientific studies, technological developments, and cultural phenomena. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott providing brief commentary or context for many of the items. Shorter summary

A detailed review of Michael Shellenberger's 'San Fransicko', examining its critiques of San Francisco's progressive policies on homelessness, drugs, and crime. Longer summary

This post reviews Michael Shellenberger's book 'San Fransicko', which criticizes progressive policies on homelessness, drug addiction, and crime in San Francisco. The review examines key claims in the book, fact-checking statistics and comparing them to other sources. While finding some of Shellenberger's criticisms valid, the review also points out areas where the book presents a one-sided narrative or misrepresents data. Overall, the reviewer sees the book as a flawed but thought-provoking critique of San Francisco's approach to urban problems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores new data on birth order effects among his blog readers, finding social factors likely explain firstborns' overrepresentation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander revisits the birth order effect he discovered in his blog readership in 2018, presenting new data from a 2020 survey. He confirms the original findings that firstborns are overrepresented among his readers, especially when age gaps between siblings are small. The post explores potential explanations, concluding that social factors, particularly parental attention, likely play a larger role than biological factors. This challenges some established views on the impact of early childhood experiences on adult outcomes. Scott acknowledges limitations in his analysis and calls for further research to better understand these effects. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 33 diverse links on topics ranging from history and science to technology and politics, offering brief summaries and commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 33 diverse links and brief summaries on various topics, including history, science, technology, politics, and culture. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects, from the history of garlic and magnets to AI-generated art, touching on topics like language models, Nobel laureates by state, ivermectin studies, nuclear weapons, and unusual legal cases. The post showcases interesting facts, recent studies, and thought-provoking ideas across multiple disciplines. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses Fabian vs Berserker strategies for an academic fighting wokeness, exploring various considerations and seeking reader input. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses strategies for an academic who wants to fight for academic freedom against wokeness. He presents two approaches: the Fabian Strategy (gradually building influence and opposing wokeness from within) and the Berserker Strategy (actively picking fights and challenging woke policies). The post explores various considerations, including the impact of hard-won victories, the effect of protests, convincing factors for changing views on wokeness, comparisons to historical movements like New Atheism and civil rights, potential negative consequences of poorly-planned resistance, and the current trajectory of wokeness in society. Scott seeks reader input on the best approach. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 34 diverse and interesting links on topics ranging from historical curiosities to current scientific debates, with brief commentaries on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 34 interesting links and brief commentaries on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including historical anecdotes, scientific studies, economic theories, technological developments, and social issues. The author, Scott Alexander, provides his thoughts and sometimes skeptical analysis on many of the items. The links are diverse, ranging from a list of games Buddha wouldn't play to discussions about AI safety research opportunities. Shorter summary