Scott examines how American political discourse absorbs European narratives that don't fit the US context, particularly around immigration and crime statistics.

The 2026 ACX/Metaculus prediction contest is now open with a $10,000 prize pool, featuring reader-submitted questions, and Scott announces the winners of the best question submission contest.

Scott Alexander shares and comments on local voting guides created by ACX meetup groups for various US cities, highlighting interesting aspects of each guide.

Scott Alexander examines prediction markets suggesting that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee could significantly improve the party's chances in the 2024 election.

Scott Alexander presents a satirical, fictional Republican primary debate with absurd rules to highlight candidate personalities and critique political debate formats.

Scott Alexander presents a satirical presidential platform with outlandish and humorous policy proposals, critiquing various aspects of American politics and society.

Commenters provide additional context and debate points from Scott Alexander's review of a Putin biography, covering Putin's rise, the author's objectivity, and comparisons to US politics.

The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events.

A review of Richard Hanania's book arguing that public choice theory, not grand strategy, explains US foreign policy decisions and their often devastating consequences.

Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics.

Scott Alexander critiques the claim that 'America has two X-wing parties' as meaningless or misleading, urging for more precise political comparisons.

Scott Alexander examines which US political party has become more extreme faster, concluding Democrats have moved further left on policy since 1994, while results vary for other aspects of extremism.

Scott Alexander humorously reviews the 26 candidates for California governor in 2022, highlighting their diverse backgrounds and unconventional policy ideas.

Scott explores cultural translation by reimagining Xi Jinping's life as that of a fictional American president, Jason Shea, and reflects on the challenges of this creative exercise.

Scott Alexander shares his predictions for 2022 on various topics, comments on predictions from other sources, and announces a prediction contest for readers.

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2021 predictions, analyzing his performance across various confidence levels and comparing his results to other forecasters and prediction markets.

Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective.

A review of Robert Caro's 'The Years of Lyndon Johnson' series, exploring LBJ's life, political tactics, and legacy, while praising the author's dedication and writing style.

Scott Alexander shares his annual predictions for 2021, covering various topics from politics to personal life, with assigned probabilities for each prediction.

Scott Alexander reviews Ezra Klein's 'Why We're Polarized', finding it asks important questions about political polarization but provides few clear answers.

Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2020, covering topics from coronavirus to personal goals, each with an assigned probability.

Scott Alexander reviews and analyzes his 2019 predictions, finding he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident across all confidence levels.

Scott Alexander presents satirical and absurd 'hardball questions' for 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, showcasing clever wordplay and humorous connections.

Scott Alexander shares his 118 predictions for 2019, covering politics, economics, technology, and personal matters, with assigned probability percentages for each prediction.

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2018 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and discussing factors that affected his performance.