Scott Alexander critiques the use of bias arguments in debates, explaining why they're often counterproductive and suggesting more constructive ways to address bias. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the problems with using bias arguments in debates. He argues that these arguments are often unproductive because everyone is biased, people are hypersensitive to biases against their side, it's hard to define bias, and bias arguments don't lead anywhere productive. He suggests that bias arguments can be useful when they provide new information, can be quantified, offer unbiased alternatives, or in private conversations between trusted friends. Scott emphasizes that first-person bias arguments (recognizing one's own biases) are the most valuable, as they allow for honest self-reflection and improvement. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes wage stagnation since 1973, examining various explanations and concluding that while wages have risen 40-50%, there is still significant decoupling from productivity due to multiple factors. Longer summary

This post analyzes the apparent wage stagnation and decoupling from productivity since 1973. Scott examines various explanations, including measurement issues, demographic changes, inflation calculations, increasing inequality, and policy changes. He concludes that wages have actually risen about 40-50% since 1973, but there is still a significant 50% decoupling from productivity. The main factors are increasing wage inequality (40%), inflation miscalculations (35%), and labor vs. capital inequality (15%). Scott breaks down potential causes and their relative importance, while noting several remaining questions and uncertainties. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the fate of 1990s environmental concerns, finding a mix of solved problems, exaggerated issues, and ongoing challenges that have faded from public attention. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the environmental concerns of the 1990s, examining what happened to issues like air and water pollution, acid rain, rainforest deforestation, endangered species, landfill space, peak resource, and whale conservation. He finds that some problems were solved, some were exaggerated, and others continue but receive less attention. The post explores why certain environmental issues fade from public consciousness, considering factors like problem-solving, alarmism, shifting focus to climate change, and changes in societal attitudes. Shorter summary

Scott proposes that value differences arise from people crystallizing heuristics at different levels, rather than from fundamental, incomprehensible differences in values. Longer summary

Scott explores the idea that value differences stem from people operating at different levels of a conceptual ladder, from explicit models to emotional experiences to reified essences to endorsed values. He argues that this perspective can help people understand each other better, as differences often arise from where individuals choose to crystallize heuristics rather than from fundamental, incomprehensible value differences. The post discusses various examples of this process, from nutrition to punishment to environmental preservation, and examines factors that influence where people place themselves on this ladder, such as intelligence, education, and personal experience. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines melatonin's effects, proper dosage, and uses for sleep disorders and circadian rhythm issues, emphasizing its dual role as a hypnotic and chronobiotic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of melatonin, its effects, and proper usage. He explains that melatonin functions as both a hypnotic (inducing sleep) and a chronobiotic (shifting circadian rhythms). The post covers optimal dosing (0.3 mg, much lower than commonly available doses), use in treating circadian rhythm disorders, jet lag, and potential connections to other psychiatric conditions like seasonal affective disorder and depression. Scott also discusses personal experiences with melatonin, including its tendency to cause early waking and vivid dreams in some people. Shorter summary

The post criticizes the gendered framing of sexual harassment, presenting statistics on male victims and female perpetrators, and argues for a more balanced approach to the issue. Longer summary

This post critiques the gendered nature of sexual harassment discourse, arguing that it ignores male victims and female perpetrators. The author presents statistics showing that about 30% of sexual harassment victims are men and 20% of perpetrators are women. He argues that the media and society have framed sexual harassment as a exclusively male-on-female issue, silencing male victims and ignoring female perpetrators. The post suggests that this framing is deliberate and counterproductive, preventing a full understanding of the issue and making it harder for all victims to get justice. The author advocates for treating sexual harassment more like terrorism - as a universal problem that can be perpetrated by anyone, regardless of gender. Shorter summary

A collection of links covering topics from drug regulation and genetic testing to tax reform and AI developments, with Scott's commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a wide-ranging links post covering various news items and studies. Topics include FDA regulations and drug pricing, genetic testing advances, Russian Facebook ads from the 2016 election, studies on education and intelligence, tax reform effects on graduate students, and various scientific developments. The post moves quickly between topics, providing brief commentary and often linking to additional sources. Several items focus on medical and healthcare issues, from insulin prices to studies on pain medication effectiveness. The post maintains Scott's characteristic mix of intellectual curiosity and light humor throughout. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander challenges the popular interpretation of the Rat Park study, arguing that addiction is not solely caused by poor environments and emphasizing genetic factors in addiction susceptibility. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the 'Rat Park' study and its popularized interpretation that drug addiction is primarily caused by poor social environments. He presents historical examples of addiction in seemingly happy or fortunate individuals, such as Ogedei Khan and Native Americans, to challenge this view. The post then discusses the genetic factors in addiction, citing twin studies and known genetic markers. Scott acknowledges that unhappiness likely contributes to drug use but argues that the relationship between environment and addiction is more complex than the Rat Park model suggests. He proposes a toy model where other sources of reward can help resist drug addiction, but maintains that biological interventions like deregulating suboxone and researching psychedelic therapy are more immediately effective for helping addicts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that while IQ is valuable for research, it's not reliable for predicting individual success and shouldn't be a major personal concern. Longer summary

Scott Alexander addresses the issue of people becoming overly concerned about their personal IQ scores. He explains that while IQ is a valuable research tool for understanding populations, it's not as useful or reliable for predicting individual outcomes. He points out that IQ tests often give inaccurate results for individuals, and even accurate IQ scores don't determine a person's potential for success. Alexander uses analogies like family wealth to illustrate how statistical correlations don't necessarily apply to individuals. He emphasizes that many factors beyond IQ contribute to success in various fields. The post aims to reassure readers who may be worried about their own IQ scores, while still maintaining the importance of IQ research for understanding broader societal trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques an article on conservative 'tribal epistemology', arguing that liberal bias in supposedly neutral institutions has driven conservatives to create their own spaces, exacerbating polarization. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques David Roberts' article on the rise of 'tribal epistemology' among US conservatives. While agreeing with some points, Scott argues that Roberts underestimates conservative grievances against supposedly neutral institutions. He illustrates how these institutions, including academia and media, often display liberal bias while claiming neutrality. Scott explains that conservatives' exodus to their own spaces is a reaction to this bias, resulting in echo chambers on both sides. He suggests that this pattern repeats across various domains, from workplaces to scientific conferences. The post concludes by advocating for a different approach, implying that the current liberal bias in 'neutral' spaces is counterproductive and exacerbates polarization. Shorter summary

A wide-ranging links post covering recent research, political developments, and interesting findings across various fields, with particular focus on psychology research, political polling, and academic developments. Longer summary

An extensive roundup of links covering various topics in science, politics, and culture. Scott covers recent research on discrimination and peer effects, discusses political developments like Brexit polling and DNC chair elections, highlights interesting academic papers on personality and therapy, and shares various curiosities like tracking a child's first words. The post also covers developments in AI, drug regulation, and campus activism. The tone is analytical and exploratory, often questioning conventional wisdom and examining evidence from multiple angles. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links from early 2017 covering drugs, education, politics, science and history, with Scott's commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a links post where Scott Alexander shares various interesting articles and studies he's come across. The post covers a wide range of topics including new drug developments, education statistics, political events around Trump's presidency, scientific discoveries, and historical curiosities. The format follows a typical links post structure with brief commentary on each link, often adding context or witty observations. Many items focus on current events from early 2017, including Trump administration policies and European political trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the phenomenon of cost disease, where costs for basic services like education and healthcare have increased dramatically without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of cost disease, where costs for essential services like education, healthcare, and housing have increased significantly over the past few decades without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. He presents data showing how these costs have risen much faster than inflation, while worker salaries in these fields have remained stagnant or even declined. Alexander considers various potential explanations for this phenomenon, including market failures, increased regulation, lawsuit fears, and changing risk tolerance. He argues that this cost disease is a major factor behind many current political and economic debates, and expresses concern about its impact on living standards and economic progress. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that, contrary to his reputation as an isolationist, Trump's statements suggest he may be more likely to engage in military interventions than Clinton, who represents a more predictable foreign policy approach. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines claims that Trump is an isolationist and safer choice than Clinton regarding foreign policy. He argues that Trump's statements and past positions suggest he may be more likely to engage in military interventions. Alexander analyzes Trump's statements on ISIS, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, finding many hawkish positions. He discusses Trump's criticism of NATO and international trade agreements, suggesting this could destabilize the post-WWII peace. Alexander then examines Clinton's positions, arguing they are more moderate and predictable. He concludes that while Clinton's foreign policy isn't perfect, she represents a lower-variance, more stable choice compared to the unpredictability of Trump's potential actions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes media tendencies to label politicians as racist or sexist based on ambiguous statements, arguing we should focus more on their stated positions and actions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the media's tendency to label politicians as racist or sexist based on ambiguous statements or 'dog whistles'. He argues this often ignores the politicians' actual stated beliefs and policies in favor of overanalyzing gaffes or interpreting statements as secret codes. The post examines three cases: Ted Cruz being called anti-Semitic for saying 'New York values', Ken Livingstone being labeled anti-Semitic for comments about Hitler and Zionism, and Donald Trump being called openly sexist despite his pro-women hiring record. Scott suggests we should be more skeptical of media claims to have special insight into politicians' true beliefs and instead focus on their stated positions and past actions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that OpenAI's open-source strategy for AI development could be dangerous, potentially risking human extinction if AI progresses rapidly. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques OpenAI's strategy of making AI research open-source, arguing it could be dangerous if AI develops rapidly. He compares it to giving nuclear weapon plans to everyone, potentially leading to catastrophe. The post analyzes the risks and benefits of open AI, discusses the potential for a hard takeoff in AI development, and examines the AI control problem. Scott expresses concern that competition in AI development may be forcing desperate strategies, potentially risking human extinction. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents satirical, absurdist 'hardball' questions for presidential candidates, blending their backgrounds with outlandish scenarios and philosophical puzzles. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes a series of humorous and satirical 'hardball' questions for presidential candidates in a debate format. He crafts elaborate, absurd scenarios for each candidate based on their background or public statements. For Dr. Carson, he questions the ethics of functional hemispherectomy. For Fiorina, he critiques her praise of the Ottoman Empire. For Bush, he uses statistics to question political dynasties. For Cruz, he explores the paradox of trusting a skilled debater. For Rubio, he spins a conspiracy theory about a magical sword. For Trump, he pokes fun at his branding habits. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links spanning topics from CRISPR technology to economic studies, with Scott's commentary on each item. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting articles and studies across multiple domains. Scott shares updates on CRISPR technology, corporate governance issues, demographic claims about Bernie Sanders supporters, studies about gender bias, and various economic research. The post includes both lighter observations (like different views of the White House) and serious academic papers about genetics, intelligence, and economic development. The format is typical of SSC links posts, with brief commentary on each link and occasional humorous asides. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques Dylan Matthews' argument against prioritizing existential risk reduction, arguing that Matthews misuses probabilities and that his logic could also undermine other effective altruist causes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Dylan Matthews' argument against prioritizing existential risk reduction in effective altruism. Matthews claims that the probabilities used in x-risk arguments are made up and could be as low as 10^-66. Scott argues that such extremely low probabilities are unrealistic and that Matthews is misusing numbers. He explains that even with rough estimates, the case for prioritizing x-risk remains strong. Scott also points out that similar arguments could be used against other causes Matthews supports, like animal welfare. He concludes by advocating for a big tent approach in effective altruism that respects different cause prioritizations, including x-risk, while acknowledging that x-risk might not be the best public face for the movement. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes California's water usage, critiques media coverage of the drought, and proposes a market-based solution focused on reducing alfalfa farming. Longer summary

This post analyzes California's water usage and the current drought crisis. Scott breaks down water consumption by sector using data from various sources, comparing it to a family budget for easier comprehension. He then examines recent news stories about water usage, pointing out how some concerns (like fracking and bottled water) are insignificant compared to agricultural use, particularly alfalfa farming. Finally, he discusses the potential for a market-based solution, suggesting that paying alfalfa farmers not to grow their crop could be more cost-effective than current water-saving measures. Shorter summary

Scott examines how rare but severe drug side effects often lead to underprescription compared to drugs with common but less severe side effects, potentially resulting in suboptimal patient care. Longer summary

This post discusses the issue of rare but severe side effects in psychiatric medications versus common but less severe side effects. Scott uses two main examples: nefazodone vs SSRIs for depression, and modafinil vs Adderall for stimulants. He argues that drugs with rare but spectacular side effects (like nefazodone and modafinil) are often underprescribed compared to drugs with more common but less severe side effects (like SSRIs and Adderall). The post explores the reasons for this, including doctors' risk aversion, lawsuit concerns, and media coverage of rare side effects. Scott suggests that this pattern may lead to suboptimal treatment choices for patients. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews an article on heroin addiction treatment, advocating for suboxone use while criticizing ineffective rehab programs and regulatory obstacles. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews a Huffington Post article on heroin addiction treatment, focusing on the effectiveness of suboxone (buprenorphine) compared to conventional rehab programs. He highlights the poor performance and sometimes abusive practices of many rehab centers, contrasting them with the proven success of suboxone treatment. The post then discusses two major obstacles to wider suboxone use: strict government regulations and resistance from the rehab industry. Alexander uses this discussion to reflect on broader themes such as the value of tight communities, the failures of both free market and government approaches in this area, and the superiority of biological solutions over social ones in addressing addiction. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a new list of internet annoyances for 2015, ranging from argumentative tactics to web design issues. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on his 2014 post about things he wanted to stop seeing on the internet, noting some improvements. He then lists 10 new annoyances for 2015, including misuse of Poe's Law, overuse of violent language in debate, cheap shots in arguments, Wikipedia-shaming, intrusive web design, clickbait tactics, overuse of 'entitled' as an insult, confusing 'post-' labels, and pedantic disputes about human evolution. The post is written in a humorous and slightly exasperated tone, critiquing various internet habits and trends. Shorter summary

Scott examines evidence for racial bias in the US criminal justice system, finding some bias in certain areas but not others, and concluding that claims of pervasive racism are overstated. Longer summary

This post analyzes racial bias in the US criminal justice system, reviewing studies on various aspects like police stops, arrests, prosecutions, and sentencing. Scott finds evidence of racial bias in some areas (e.g. capital punishment, sentence length) but little or no bias in others (e.g. arrests for violent crimes, prosecutions). He concludes that while there is some racial bias, claims of pervasive systemic racism are overstated. However, he notes that even without explicit bias, the system can still disproportionately harm black people through indirect means like drug laws or poverty-related factors. Shorter summary

The author revisits their belief in genetic determinism, presenting evidence that environmental factors, especially in divorce, have significant non-genetic effects on children's outcomes. Longer summary

The post discusses the author's initial belief in the genetic determinism thesis from 'The Nurture Assumption', which argues that parenting has little effect on children's outcomes compared to genetics. The author then presents evidence from divorce studies that challenge this view, showing that environmental factors, particularly family conflict, do have significant effects on children. The post reviews several studies that disentangle genetic and environmental effects of divorce, concluding that there are indeed non-genetic negative impacts of divorce on children. The author acknowledges being wrong about shared environment effects being negligible and suggests that short-term environmental impacts can have long-lasting consequences. Shorter summary