Scott demonstrates that US crime rates are at historic lows using multiple data sources, then debunks the theories that this is due to reporting bias or improved medical care, before briefly discussing possible explanations for the decline. Longer summary

Scott presents evidence that US crime rates, particularly murder rates, are at or near historic lows, then systematically debunks two common objections: that the decline is due to underreporting bias, and that it's an artifact of improved medical care saving would-be murder victims. He shows that multiple independent data sources (including victim surveys and consistently-reported crimes like car theft) confirm the decline, and that while medical care has improved, gun injuries have become more severe at roughly the same rate, canceling out the effect. The post concludes by listing various theories for why crime has declined and questioning why public perception doesn't match the data. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes why people support government-funded foreign aid instead of donating voluntarily, examining and critiquing several theories including virtue signaling, coordination problems, and time-inconsistent preferences. Longer summary

Scott examines why people support government-funded foreign aid rather than just donating directly, pushing back against the 'other people's money' argument. He considers and critiques several explanations: the force multiplier theory (seizing opponents' money), virtue signaling through voting, psychological free-riding on knowing problems are solved, coordination problems requiring bundling, transaction costs that make voluntary systems impractical, and time-inconsistent preferences where people's long-term values differ from their moment-to-moment impulses. Scott concludes by proposing a thought experiment where tax forms include an opt-out box for foreign aid, predicting most people wouldn't use it, suggesting the issue is more complex than simply wanting to spend others' money. Shorter summary

Scott argues against the trend of 'Boomer-hating,' contending that Baby Boomers delivered peace and prosperity, passed on greater wealth to their children, and don't differ significantly from younger generations on most political issues. Longer summary

Scott Alexander pushes back against the growing anti-Boomer sentiment in contemporary discourse. He argues that despite popular narratives, Baby Boomers presided over an era of unprecedented peace and prosperity, and younger generations actually have more inflation-adjusted wealth than Boomers did at the same age. He examines claims that Boomers are politically extreme (both left and right), finding minimal generational differences on issues like climate change, nuclear power, and housing policy. Scott addresses the accusation that Boomers are plundering younger generations through Social Security, showing that benefit generosity peaked in 1972 and has since contracted. He concludes by warning that generational identity politics, like other forms of identity politics, provides a lazy way to hate everything while avoiding substantive policy discussion, and that today's young people will eventually face similar resentment from future generations. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a new book by Yudkowsky and Soares that makes an uncompromising case for halting AI development to prevent human extinction, analyzing both its arguments and its potential impact as a call to action. Longer summary

Scott reviews Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares' upcoming book 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' about AI safety. The book makes an uncompromising case that AI development will likely lead to human extinction and should be halted immediately through an international treaty and arms control regime. Scott analyzes both the book's arguments and writing style, finding the core message compelling but questioning some of the specific scenarios presented. He reflects on why many people reject existential AI risk warnings using similar dismissive patterns seen with other potential catastrophic risks. Shorter summary

A review of 'Nine Lives', a memoir by ex-jihadist turned spy Aimen Dean, offering insights into al-Qaeda's operations and the challenges of counterterrorism. Longer summary

This review discusses Aimen Dean's memoir 'Nine Lives', which details his experiences as a jihadist turned British spy infiltrating al-Qaeda. The review highlights key insights from the book, including the motivations behind jihadism, the role of religious prophecies in terrorist strategies, the challenges of intelligence work, and Dean's perspective on countering radicalization. It also touches on the book's implications for understanding terrorist organizations, their tactics, and the complexities of counterterrorism efforts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the effectiveness of education by analyzing knowledge retention, questioning the value of schooling beyond basic skills. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the effectiveness of education by examining how much factual knowledge people retain after schooling. He presents survey data showing that many adults, including college students, struggle to recall basic facts taught in school. The post explores why this might be, discussing the Ebbinghaus Forgetting Curve and spaced repetition. Scott proposes that people mainly remember information they encounter regularly in daily life, rather than what they learned in school. He concludes by questioning the usefulness of most schooling beyond basic skills, suggesting that cultural osmosis might be more effective for long-term knowledge retention. Shorter summary

The review examines arguments for increased government secrecy, suggesting that transparency may lead to negative outcomes and that a return to more opaque legislative processes could be beneficial. Longer summary

This book review examines Brian Kogelmann's argument for increased secrecy in government, particularly in legislative processes. The author argues that transparency, while intuitively appealing, can lead to negative outcomes such as increased influence of special interest groups and political grandstanding. The review explores the historical context, theoretical justifications, and potential drawbacks of secret deliberation, ultimately suggesting that a return to more opaque legislative processes could improve political outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques a study claiming an illusion of moral decline, pointing out methodological flaws and suggesting alternative explanations for the perception of declining morality. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a study by Mastroianni and Gilbert (MG) that claims there is an illusion of moral decline. The study argues that while people consistently believe morality is declining, objective measures show it has remained stable. Scott identifies several issues with the study's methodology and interpretation, including problems with timescale, accuracy, measurement, and sensitivity of the data used. He suggests that the perception of moral decline might be due to each generation judging the present by the moral standards of their youth, rather than a cognitive bias. Scott also points out that the study fails to consider many important aspects of morality in its analysis. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary

This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a curated list of 41 diverse links and news items, covering topics from linguistics and technology to politics and popular culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 41 diverse links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. The topics range from linguistics, technology, and politics to economics, science, and popular culture. Scott provides brief commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or skepticism. The post includes updates on current events, interesting scientific findings, cultural trends, and academic debates. It also features some visual content like graphs, images, and embedded tweets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates whether non-religious people are more prone to believing conspiracy theories, finding a U-shaped relationship between religiosity and skepticism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the claim that non-religious people are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories and woo. He analyzes various studies on beliefs in UFOs, Bigfoot, and astrology across different religious groups. The results show a more nuanced picture: both strongly religious people and outright atheists are generally less likely to believe in these theories, while those in the middle (weakly religious or agnostic) are more susceptible. Scott discusses possible explanations for this pattern, including intellectual coherence and closed-mindedness. He concludes that the relationship between religiosity and belief in conspiracy theories is more complex than commonly assumed. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents evidence that the 2020 US homicide spike was caused by Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that the 2020 homicide spike in the US was primarily caused by the Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. He presents evidence on timing, demographics, police pullback, and comparisons with other countries and previous protests to support his claim. The post criticizes media coverage for attributing the spike to complex factors or the pandemic, suggesting a bias in reporting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines which US political party has become more extreme faster, concluding Democrats have moved further left on policy since 1994, while results vary for other aspects of extremism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the question of which political party in the US has become more extreme faster, breaking it down into four sub-questions. He concludes that Democrats have moved further left on policy positions since 1994 than Republicans have moved right, based on survey data and first principles. On divergence from ordinary Americans, he calls it a tie. Regarding ideological purity, Republicans show more polarization in Congress, but it's unclear for average voters. Scott avoids declaring a winner on which party has become crazier in worldview and messaging. He argues the policy position change is most important, supporting the meme that Democrats have moved more extreme, while noting other interpretations could point to Republicans. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares insights gained from writing a comprehensive post on lockdown effectiveness, highlighting the complexities and challenges of analyzing such a multifaceted issue. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on writing a comprehensive post about lockdown effectiveness during the COVID-19 pandemic. He discusses the challenges of addressing such a complex, multi-dimensional issue, including the difficulty of comparing different types of costs, the limitations of mathematical models, and the potential for bias in academic research. Scott also notes the varying pandemic experiences across different countries and regions, and the surprising involvement of rationalists and effective altruists in lockdown studies. He emphasizes the importance of considering alternative approaches beyond the typical pro/anti-lockdown debate, and the value of cross-disciplinary research in addressing complex issues. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that Jewish overachievement is real and deserves continued study, countering Noah Smith's attempt to downplay its significance. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Noah Smith's article questioning whether Jews are really disproportionately successful. Scott argues that Jewish success is real and not fully explained by selective immigration or other factors Noah proposed. He examines historical evidence on Jewish immigration, compares Jewish achievement to urbanization rates, and discusses data on Jewish success in various fields. Scott concludes that Jewish overachievement remains an interesting and important phenomenon to study, potentially offering insights into genetics or cultural factors that could be broadly beneficial if understood. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the unusual trend of Colombian Christians converting to Orthodox Judaism, exploring various sociological and cultural explanations for this phenomenon. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the phenomenon of Christians in Colombia converting to Orthodox Judaism, as reported in a Washington Post article. He notes that while the numbers are small (2500-5000 converts), it's unusual given the difficulty of converting to Orthodox Judaism. Scott examines possible explanations, including the story of a megachurch pastor's conversion, broader religious shifts in Latin America, and societal factors. He suggests that conversion might be a way for people to escape problematic aspects of their society, drawing parallels with other religious conversions in Latin America and even charter cities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 35 diverse links covering scientific studies, historical facts, cultural observations, and technological developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of 35 interesting links on various topics. These include scientific studies, historical anecdotes, cultural observations, and technological developments. Some notable items are: a failed replication of the link between childhood screen time and attention problems, insights into the Canadian tech scene, a map of Reddit, and a technology for animating old photos. The post also covers topics like urban planning, economic policies, and quirky historical facts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the history of increasing competitiveness in college admissions, analyzing causes and questioning whether the focus on elite college admission is justified. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the history of college admissions and the increasing competitiveness in recent years. He traces the evolution from a time when top colleges admitted almost anyone qualified to the current highly competitive landscape. The post examines various factors contributing to this change, including increased applications per student, changing demographics, and shifts in evaluation criteria. Scott also investigates whether the intense focus on college admissions is justified, given research suggesting that attending a selective college may not significantly impact most students' long-term outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting news items, scientific findings, and cultural observations, covering topics from archaeology to economics to social issues. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from various fields. It covers topics such as archaeology, economics, politics, science, technology, and social issues. The author, Scott Alexander, provides brief summaries and commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or irony. The post includes stories about unexpected discoveries, unusual historical facts, scientific developments, and cultural phenomena. It also touches on some ongoing debates in fields like healthcare economics and free speech. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews and responds to comments on his survey about sexual harassment rates in different fields, addressing methodological issues and presenting additional demographic data. Longer summary

This post discusses comments and analyses related to the SSC Survey Results on Sexual Harassment Levels By Field. It covers various points raised by commenters, including attempts to reproduce the results, alternative interpretations of the data, methodological critiques, and additional factors that might influence harassment rates. The post also presents additional data on harassment rates by various demographic factors, while cautioning against drawing strong conclusions without proper statistical analysis. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links and studies on various topics, from bad statistics and media coverage to technological progress and scientific discoveries, with commentary from Scott Alexander. Longer summary

This is one of Scott's regular link posts, presenting a diverse collection of interesting articles, studies, and developments. The topics range from media coverage and politics, through scientific studies and technological progress, to social developments and cultural phenomena. Scott provides commentary on many of the links, often adding context, questioning methodology, or highlighting interesting implications. The post maintains a mix of serious academic content and lighter cultural observations. Shorter summary

A curated collection of interesting links covering science, history, politics and culture, with brief commentary from Scott Alexander on each item. Longer summary

This is a collection of interesting links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. The post covers a wide range of topics, from scientific discoveries (like fungi in Alzheimer's patients' brains and psilocybin's effects on brain connectivity) to historical curiosities (like the Czechoslovak legion's journey around the world). Scott provides brief commentary and context for each link, often with a humorous or skeptical tone. The links also include political analysis, economics research, and various cultural observations, demonstrating the breadth of topics that interest the blog's audience. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how issues become politicized along tribal lines, preventing rational discussion and leading to counterproductive behaviors. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses how various issues become politicized and tied to tribal narratives, using examples like the Ebola quarantine debate, the Rotherham scandal, and climate change. He argues that when issues become referendums on tribal identity, it prevents rational discussion and leads to counterproductive behaviors. He suggests that framing issues in ways that respect out-group narratives could help, but notes this rarely happens due to media incentives. Shorter summary

The author analyzes results of a prediction contest about American political opinions, revealing participants' inaccuracies and biases in estimating current views and changes over time. Longer summary

This post discusses the results of a prediction contest where participants estimated current American opinions on political issues and how those opinions have changed over 22 years. The author analyzes the accuracy of predictions, noting that participants were generally poor at estimating current opinions but slightly better at predicting changes. The post reveals that participants tended to overestimate how leftist Americans are and how much society has shifted left. The author also mentions that there was little difference in accuracy between reactionary and progressive participants, and names the most accurate predictors. Shorter summary