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46 posts found
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Jul 21, 2026
acx
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Contra Pritchard On Liberal Happiness

13 min • 1,920 words • 491 comments • 366 likes
Scott defends liberalism against claims it has failed by explaining that happiness scales logarithmically with income, so our 225x wealth increase since medieval times correctly predicts the 3-point happiness gain we've actually seen, and recent declines are due to COVID rather than systemic failure. Longer summary
Scott responds to Cassie Pritchard's argument that liberalism has failed because people aren't happier despite massive increases in wealth. He explains that happiness scales logarithmically with income, not linearly - meaning a 225x increase in GDP since medieval times should only produce about 3 points more happiness on a 1-10 scale, which it has (from ~3/10 to 6-7/10). He shows that recent happiness declines are primarily due to COVID and its aftermath, not liberalism itself, and that while other systems might add 0.5-1 points of happiness, economic growth has delivered 3 points and will continue delivering more over centuries. The post includes analysis of happiness data, comparisons across countries and time periods, and addresses why we don't feel as happy as we should be. Shorter summary
Oct 30, 2025
acx
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Links For October 2025

42 min • 6,423 words • 803 comments • 211 likes • podcast (38 min)
Scott Alexander presents 51 links covering AI progress and safety, political developments, scientific research, cultural oddities, and ongoing philosophical debates about miracles and education reform. Longer summary
Scott Alexander shares 51 links covering diverse topics including AI developments (agents, safety, consciousness research), political news (Ukraine policy, UK politics, Trump administration), science updates (climate predictions, genetics, bacteriophages), cultural curiosities (Shakespeare superfan plastic surgery, Soviet naming conventions, flag cones), health research (Alzheimer's prevention, shingles vaccine reducing dementia, kidney donation), and philosophical debates (Hume's argument against miracles, the Fatima miracle discussion). The post maintains Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and quirky observations, touching on everything from Bach's descendants in Oklahoma to the mystery of why AI still struggles with laundry folding despite mastering protein folding. Shorter summary
Jan 01, 2025
acx
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H5N1: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

34 min • 5,141 words • 224 comments • 423 likes • podcast (30 min)
Scott examines the likelihood and potential severity of an H5N1 bird flu pandemic, analyzing prediction markets and historical data to estimate a 5% chance of pandemic in the next year with most likely moderate severity. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides a comprehensive overview of H5N1 bird flu and its pandemic potential. He starts by explaining what flu is and its history of pandemics, then focuses on H5N1's current situation, analyzing prediction market estimates for its chances of causing a pandemic. The post examines different mortality scenarios and their likelihood, using data from past flu pandemics and current cases. It concludes with specific predictions about H5N1's future impact, suggesting a 5% chance of human pandemic in the next year, with varying degrees of severity if it occurs. Shorter summary
May 15, 2024
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Profile: The Far Out Initiative

28 min • 4,208 words • 829 comments • 309 likes • podcast (25 min)
The post explores the Far Out Initiative's goal to eliminate suffering through biotechnology, inspired by a pain-free woman and David Pearce's philosophy. Longer summary
This post discusses the Far Out Initiative, a project aimed at eliminating suffering through biotechnology. It begins by introducing Jo Cameron, a woman genetically incapable of feeling pain or anxiety, and explores the philosophical implications of her condition. The post then delves into David Pearce's suffering abolitionism philosophy and his practical approaches to ending suffering. Finally, it describes the Far Out Initiative's current efforts, led by Marcin Kowrygo, to create suffering-free animals through genetic engineering and potentially extend this to humans in the future. Shorter summary
Jan 25, 2024
acx
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The Psychopolitics Of Trauma

40 min • 6,173 words • 531 comments • 668 likes • podcast (35 min)
Scott Alexander proposes that political hyperpartisanship might be a form of trauma, comparing PTSD symptoms to behaviors observed in political extremists. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the idea that political extremism might be a form of trauma. He compares symptoms of PTSD to behaviors observed in politically hyperpartisan individuals, such as triggers, distorted cognitions, and hypervigilance. The post discusses how trapped priors in the brain might explain both cognitive and emotional aspects of political extremism. Scott also considers the implications of framing political partisanship as trauma, including potential risks of expanding the concept of trauma. Shorter summary
Aug 18, 2023
acx
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Your Book Review: The Mind Of A Bee

38 min • 5,787 words • 247 comments • 193 likes • podcast (32 min)
The review of 'The Mind of a Bee' examines the cognitive abilities of bees, raising questions about their intelligence and potential consciousness. Longer summary
This book review of 'The Mind of a Bee' by Lars Chittka explores the complex cognitive abilities of bees, discussing their behaviors, brain structure, and potential for consciousness. The review covers topics such as the waggle dance, honeycomb construction, brain waves, and various experiments demonstrating bees' problem-solving skills. While not definitively answering whether bees are 'smart' or conscious, the review highlights the complexity of bee cognition and the challenges in studying animal intelligence. Shorter summary
Jun 01, 2023
acx
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Links For May 2023

24 min • 3,615 words • 682 comments • 125 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and news items, covering topics from architecture and history to AI developments and scientific studies, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary
This post is a collection of various links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, history, animal welfare, optical illusions, scientific studies, AI developments, demographics, and more. Scott provides brief commentary on many of the items, sometimes expressing his personal opinions or highlighting interesting aspects. The post includes both light-hearted topics (like unusual baby names) and more serious discussions (such as AI safety concerns and research on gender bias in academia). Shorter summary
May 04, 2023
acx
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Raise Your Threshold For Accusing People Of Faking Bisexuality

14 min • 2,047 words • 580 comments • 205 likes • podcast (13 min)
Scott Alexander presents evidence supporting the legitimacy of bisexual identity, explaining why many bisexuals primarily date the opposite sex despite genuine attraction to both. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the common accusation that self-identified bisexuals are faking their sexuality for trendiness. He presents statistical and biological evidence to explain why bisexuals often end up in heterosexual relationships despite genuine attraction to both sexes. The post explores dating pool sizes, social pressures, and biological arousal patterns to support the legitimacy of bisexual identity. Scott argues that as social acceptance increases, more people recognize their bisexual tendencies, even if they primarily date the opposite sex. He concludes by relating this to the original question about bisexuality and Long COVID, suggesting a possible link through neurodivergence and increased self-awareness. Shorter summary
Apr 20, 2023
acx
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Links For April 2023

25 min • 3,799 words • 706 comments • 115 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023, covering topics from unusual stories and scientific research to AI developments and global trends. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents a collection of interesting links and news items for April 2023. The post covers a wide range of topics, including unusual stories, scientific research, political developments, AI progress and concerns, cultural phenomena, and more. Notable items include a real-life 'Cocaine Bear' story, an adversarial collaboration on income and happiness, concerns about AI development, and updates on global trends like birth rates in Africa. The post also includes several short fiction recommendations and humorous AI-related anecdotes. Shorter summary
Mar 03, 2023
acx
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Against Ice Age Civilizations

12 min • 1,792 words • 372 comments • 168 likes • podcast (11 min)
Scott Alexander presents evidence against the existence of advanced Ice Age civilizations, particularly those rivaling ancient Egypt or 1700s Great Britain. Longer summary
Scott Alexander argues against the existence of advanced Ice Age civilizations, categorizing potential claims into three levels of advancement: Stonehenge-like, Egyptian-like, and 1700s Great Britain-like. He presents three main arguments: the lack of archaeological sites that would survive sea level rise, the absence of evidence for early crop and livestock domestication, and the lack of elevated lead levels in ice cores and human bones from that period. While he doesn't completely rule out Stonehenge-level civilizations, he finds strong evidence against more advanced societies. The post concludes with probability estimates for future discoveries of pre-11,000 BC structures at different levels of sophistication. Shorter summary
Aug 04, 2022
acx
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Slightly Against Underpopulation Worries

22 min • 3,325 words • 906 comments • 197 likes • podcast (26 min)
Scott Alexander argues that underpopulation concerns are overstated and likely irrelevant due to expected technological changes by 2100. Longer summary
Scott Alexander argues against worries about underpopulation, stating that while there may be some demographic shifts and challenges, they are not as dire as some claim. He presents data showing global population will continue to grow until 2100, and even countries with declining populations will still have substantial numbers. He discusses potential issues like age pyramid concerns and innovation slowdowns, but argues these are either manageable or likely to be overshadowed by technological changes. Scott concludes that long-term population projections are largely irrelevant due to the likelihood of transformative technological changes before 2100. Shorter summary
May 13, 2022
acx
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Your Book Review: Consciousness And The Brain

52 min • 8,040 words • 408 comments • 128 likes • podcast (53 min)
A review of Stanislas Dehaene's 'Consciousness and the Brain', discussing scientific findings on consciousness and their implications. Longer summary
This review discusses Stanislas Dehaene's book 'Consciousness and the Brain', which explores the scientific understanding of consciousness. The book defines consciousness as the ability to report on a perception, and describes experiments that differentiate conscious from unconscious processing. It explains what the brain can do unconsciously, what requires consciousness, and how consciousness operates in the brain. The review also covers the book's insights on topics like schizophrenia and the 'hard problem' of consciousness. Shorter summary
Apr 01, 2022
acx
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The Low-Hanging Fruit Argument: Models And Predictions

13 min • 1,861 words • 240 comments • 103 likes • podcast (16 min)
Scott proposes a 'low-hanging fruit' model to explain trends in scientific discovery, using a foraging analogy to illustrate why early scientists make more discoveries and at a younger age. Longer summary
Scott Alexander proposes a model to explain several trends in scientific discovery over time, using an analogy of foragers in a camp. The model suggests that early scientists make more discoveries than later ones, amateurs are more likely to contribute early on, and the age of discovery increases over time. These trends are less pronounced for brilliant scientists and don't apply to new fields. The model provides a mechanical explanation for trends often attributed to political factors, though Scott estimates it accounts for about 75% of the effect. Shorter summary
Mar 28, 2022
acx
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Information Markets, Decision Markets, Attention Markets, Action Markets

20 min • 3,064 words • 115 comments • 77 likes • podcast (26 min)
Scott Alexander explores different types of prediction markets, their uses, limitations, and ethical considerations in decision-making and information gathering. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses various types of prediction markets, including information markets, decision markets, attention markets, and action markets. He explores their potential uses, limitations, and ethical considerations. The post covers how these markets can be used to predict past and present events, guide decision-making, allocate attention to important issues, and incentivize actions. Scott also discusses the challenges and potential pitfalls of each type of market, such as trust issues, the need for resolution, and potential for abuse. He concludes by drawing parallels between prediction markets and concepts in AI safety and neuroscience. Shorter summary
Jan 26, 2022
acx
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Against That Poverty And Infant EEGs Study

15 min • 2,177 words • 421 comments • 158 likes • podcast (22 min)
Scott Alexander critiques a study claiming cash payments to poor mothers increased infant brain function, highlighting statistical and methodological issues that undermine its positive conclusions. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques a recent study claiming that cash payments to low-income mothers increased brain function in babies. He points out several issues with the study, including the loss of statistical significance after adjusting for multiple comparisons, potential artifacts in EEG data visualization, and deviations from pre-registered analysis plans. He also discusses the broader context of research on poverty and cognition, noting the difficulty in finding shared environmental effects and the tendency for studies in this field to be flawed or overhyped. Scott concludes that while the study doesn't prove cash grants don't affect children's EEGs, it essentially shows no effect and should not have been reported as an unqualified positive result. Shorter summary
Dec 30, 2021
acx
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Links For December

17 min • 2,607 words • 535 comments • 64 likes • podcast (21 min)
Scott Alexander shares 34 diverse and interesting links on topics ranging from historical curiosities to current scientific debates, with brief commentaries on each. Longer summary
This post is a collection of 34 interesting links and brief commentaries on various topics. It covers a wide range of subjects including historical anecdotes, scientific studies, economic theories, technological developments, and social issues. The author, Scott Alexander, provides his thoughts and sometimes skeptical analysis on many of the items. The links are diverse, ranging from a list of games Buddha wouldn't play to discussions about AI safety research opportunities. Shorter summary
Aug 18, 2021
acx
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Links For August

21 min • 3,111 words • 516 comments • 50 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and commentary on topics ranging from housing policy and employment discrimination to conspiracy theories and vaccine hesitancy, with a mix of analysis, skepticism, and humor. Longer summary
This post is a collection of interesting links and commentary on various topics. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects including housing policy, creativity tests, Chinese tech regulation, employment discrimination studies, conspiracy theories, vaccine hesitancy among PhDs, and public health policies. He also shares intriguing images, discusses scientific controversies, and provides commentary on current events and social issues. The post maintains a mix of seriousness and humor throughout, often with a skeptical or analytical perspective on the topics presented. Shorter summary
Jun 01, 2021
acx
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Moral Costs Of Chicken Vs. Beef

12 min • 1,762 words • 803 comments • 88 likes • podcast (13 min)
Scott Alexander argues that eating beef is more ethical than chicken due to reduced animal suffering, despite higher environmental impact, and explores the complexities of this ethical calculus. Longer summary
Scott Alexander argues that eating beef is more ethical than eating chicken from an animal welfare perspective, despite beef's higher environmental impact. He calculates that switching from chicken to beef saves about 60 chickens per year at the cost of 2.2 tons extra CO2. Offsetting this carbon costs about $22 annually, which he argues is worthwhile given the reduction in animal suffering. He then explores the complexities of comparing direct action to offsetting, discussing potential market failures in offset pricing. Despite these complications, he concludes that eating beef over chicken is likely still the better ethical choice, especially if one is not actually performing the offsets. Shorter summary
Apr 27, 2021
acx
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Verses Written On The Occasion Of Getting The COVID Vaccine

3 min • 456 words • 339 comments • 153 likes
Scott Alexander writes a humorous poem about getting the COVID-19 vaccine, set to a Les Misérables tune, exploring lockdown frustrations and the complexities of returning to normalcy. Longer summary
This post is a creative writing piece in the form of verses set to the tune of a song from Les Misérables. It humorously depicts the experience of getting the COVID-19 vaccine and the conflicting desires between citizens wanting freedom and epidemiologists urging continued caution. The verses highlight various frustrations with lockdowns, and end with the narrator receiving the vaccine but still being advised to follow restrictions. The piece concludes with the narrator expressing a sense of freedom and resentment towards the FDA for delays in vaccine approval. Shorter summary
Mar 10, 2021
acx
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Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality

33 min • 5,057 words • 641 comments • 368 likes • podcast (30 min)
Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'trapped priors' as a fundamental problem in rationality, explaining how it leads to persistent biases and suggesting potential solutions. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'trapped priors' as a fundamental problem in rationality. He explains how the brain combines raw experience with context to produce perceptions, and how this process can lead to cognitive biases and phobias. The article discusses how trapped priors can make it difficult for people to update their beliefs, even in the face of contradictory evidence. Scott also examines how this concept applies to political biases and suggests potential ways to overcome trapped priors. Shorter summary
Mar 04, 2021
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Highlights From The Comments On March Links

18 min • 2,780 words • 172 comments • 55 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott Alexander reviews and responds to reader comments on various topics from his March Links post, providing additional context and clarifications. Longer summary
Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his March Links post. Topics include privateering, hurricane data reliability, Harvard's budget accounting, Bernie Sanders' campaign, police reform studies, and political psychology research. He highlights expert opinions, clarifies misunderstandings, and adds context to various points raised in the original post. Shorter summary
Feb 11, 2021
acx
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Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Tradeoffs And Failures

29 min • 4,352 words • 312 comments • 185 likes • podcast (30 min)
Scott Alexander examines whether psychiatric conditions result from evolutionary failures or tradeoffs, proposing that most disorders involve a combination of both. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the nature of psychiatric conditions, discussing whether they result from evolutionary failures or tradeoffs. He presents evidence for both hypotheses, noting that recent research favors the failure hypothesis. However, he argues that some conditions likely involve both failures and tradeoffs. He uses analogies from justice systems and nuclear war scenarios to illustrate how failures and tradeoffs can interact. The post concludes by suggesting that most psychiatric disorders exist on a spectrum from mostly-tradeoff to mostly-failure, and critiques the neurodiversity movement's blanket statements about conditions like autism. Shorter summary
Feb 03, 2021
acx
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Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Dynamical Systems

27 min • 4,071 words • 120 comments • 157 likes • podcast (30 min)
Scott Alexander examines mental disorders through the lens of dynamical systems theory, exploring how this perspective complements and contrasts with taxometric approaches. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the concept of mental disorders as dynamical systems with attractor states, contrasting this with the taxometric approach. He uses examples like Alice's health insurance situation and Bob's depression to illustrate how complex systems can have stable states that attract nearby unstable situations. The post discusses how this perspective can help understand the nature of depression and other mental disorders, showing how they can be both dimensional and categorical. Scott also draws parallels between the complexity of mental disorders and the global economy, emphasizing the intricate interconnections and the difficulty of predicting outcomes or effective interventions. Shorter summary
Scott Alexander explores various COVID-19 topics including lockdown effectiveness, infection rate variations, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations of pandemic response. Longer summary
This post covers various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdown effectiveness, heterogeneity in infection rates across countries, transmission risks, prediction markets, and ethical considerations. Scott discusses cell phone data showing limited impact of official lockdowns, explores reasons for varying infection/mortality rates between countries, and highlights the role of speaking/singing in virus transmission. He also examines coronavirus prediction markets, questions the long-term sustainability of lockdowns, and ponders how to quantify the severity of COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes. The post concludes with numerous short updates and links on coronavirus-related topics. Shorter summary
Dec 11, 2019
ssc
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[ACC] Is Eating Meat A Net Harm?

72 min • 11,092 words • 416 comments • podcast (70 min)
A vegetarian and meat-eater collaborate to analyze the impacts of eating meat, concluding that reduced consumption is beneficial but not as clear-cut as some might think. Longer summary
This post is an entry to the 2019 Adversarial Collaboration Contest, where a vegetarian and a meat-eater investigate the ethical, health, and environmental impacts of eating meat. They explore animal consciousness, factory farming conditions, human happiness set points, health outcomes, environmental effects, and costs of switching diets. They conclude that reducing meat consumption, especially chicken, is beneficial overall, but the case is not as strong as some vegetarians might assume. Shorter summary
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