Scott demonstrates that US crime rates are at historic lows using multiple data sources, then debunks the theories that this is due to reporting bias or improved medical care, before briefly discussing possible explanations for the decline. Longer summary

Scott presents evidence that US crime rates, particularly murder rates, are at or near historic lows, then systematically debunks two common objections: that the decline is due to underreporting bias, and that it's an artifact of improved medical care saving would-be murder victims. He shows that multiple independent data sources (including victim surveys and consistently-reported crimes like car theft) confirm the decline, and that while medical care has improved, gun injuries have become more severe at roughly the same rate, canceling out the effect. The post concludes by listing various theories for why crime has declined and questioning why public perception doesn't match the data. Shorter summary

Scott examines and rejects conflict theory (the idea that political disagreements come from material self-interest), arguing instead that political positions are primarily driven by psychological needs and identity rather than material interests. Longer summary

Scott argues against conflict theory, which posits that political disagreements stem from material self-interest, and instead proposes that political positions are driven by psychological needs. He demonstrates this through several examples: the SALT tax cap affecting coastal elites garnered little attention despite significant financial impact, vaccine debates can't be explained by material interests, and most hot-button issues like wokeness or Ukraine have minimal material impact on Americans. The post explains how psychological factors, such as desire for self-esteem and group identity, better explain political positions. Scott concludes that while this makes persuasion theoretically possible, it also explains why genuine compromise attempts are rare. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes research on whether longer prison sentences reduce crime, examining studies on deterrence, incapacitation, and aftereffects, to conclude that while prison does decrease crime through incapacitation, it's less cost-effective than other methods like policing. Longer summary

This post examines the relationship between prison sentences and crime reduction through three mechanisms: deterrence (scaring potential criminals), incapacitation (preventing prisoners from committing crimes), and aftereffects (post-release behavior changes). Through analysis of multiple studies and reviews, Scott finds that deterrence effects are minimal, incapacitation has strong positive effects (preventing about 7 crimes per prisoner-year), and aftereffects range from slightly beneficial to harmful depending on circumstances. He concludes that while prison does reduce crime, with a 10% increase in incarceration reducing crime by about 3%, it's less cost-effective than alternatives like increased policing. The post ends by examining practical challenges in the justice system that prevent effective handling of repeat offenders. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes Javier Milei's presidency in Argentina, noting mixed results in economic indicators and policies, with some successes in budget cuts and inflation reduction, but increased poverty rates. Longer summary

This post analyzes the performance of Javier Milei, Argentina's libertarian president, focusing on key economic indicators and policies. Scott examines government surplus, inflation, poverty rates, rent control abolition, and Milei's approval ratings. He notes that Milei has achieved a government surplus through significant spending cuts and has reduced monthly inflation, though yearly inflation figures remain high. Poverty has increased under Milei's administration, but there are slight signs of economic improvement. The abolition of rent control has led to increased housing supply and lower prices. Milei's approval ratings, while declining, remain relatively high compared to other world leaders. Scott concludes that while Milei has fulfilled his promise of short-term economic shock, it's too early to judge the long-term success of his policies. Shorter summary

Scott explores the recent British economic decline, examining various statistics and theories about its causes and impact. Longer summary

This post discusses the recent economic decline in Britain, analyzing various statistics and theories about its causes. Scott examines GDP data, productivity trends, wage stagnation, and currency value changes, while considering factors like Brexit, real estate market issues, and R&D investment. He presents different perspectives from commenters and experts, highlighting the complexity of the situation and the difficulty in pinpointing exact causes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticism of his post on housing density and prices, refining but largely maintaining his argument that increased density can raise local prices. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about housing density and prices. He addresses several key points, including whether density causes desirability, the role of jobs and amenities in city desirability, Chinese ghost cities, comparisons to Tokyo, accusations of misunderstanding economics, and opinions from notable experts. Scott refines some of his views but maintains his core argument that increasing density within a city can increase housing prices by making the city more desirable, while acknowledging this effect may be limited or outweighed by other factors in many cases. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues for a nuanced view of cryptocurrency, highlighting its legitimate uses and potential benefits despite common criticisms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explains why he is 'less than infinitely hostile' to cryptocurrency, despite widespread criticism. He argues that crypto has clear use cases in countries with weak banking systems, that major crypto projects are rarely outright scams, and that crypto provides valuable insurance against authoritarianism by enabling financial transactions when governments try to restrict them. Scott also contends that while the crypto financial system may be inferior to traditional finance in many ways, its decentralized nature gives it unique advantages. He concludes by suggesting that crypto's potential utility shouldn't be dismissed, even if one doesn't personally need it. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets on Twitter, FTX, effective altruism, and US midterms, discussing their accuracy and exploring the concept of 'scandal markets'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent prediction markets on Manifold and other platforms, focusing on topics like Twitter's future under Elon Musk, the FTX scandal and its impact on effective altruism, and the 2022 US midterm elections. He analyzes the accuracy of different prediction markets and polling aggregators, and explores the potential benefits and risks of 'scandal markets' for public figures. The post also touches on regulatory challenges for prediction markets and some interesting market observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends his analysis of the 2020 US homicide spike against various counterarguments, maintaining that it was primarily caused by changes in policing following protests. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about the 2020 homicide spike in the US. He addresses several counterarguments and alternative explanations, including the role of increased gun sales, racial differences in homicide rates, the exact timing of the spike, changes in policing behavior, media coverage, academic literature on the topic, and potential effects of warm weather. Scott largely maintains his original position that the spike was primarily caused by changes in policing following protests, rather than other factors like the pandemic or increased gun ownership. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents evidence that the 2020 US homicide spike was caused by Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that the 2020 homicide spike in the US was primarily caused by the Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. He presents evidence on timing, demographics, police pullback, and comparisons with other countries and previous protests to support his claim. The post criticizes media coverage for attributing the spike to complex factors or the pandemic, suggesting a bias in reporting. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a book on Xi Jinping's rule, exploring China's government structure and Xi's rise to power, concluding that China's system failed to prevent authoritarianism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Elizabeth Economy's book 'The Third Revolution' about Xi Jinping's rule in China, but finds it doesn't answer his key questions about how Xi came to power. He explores China's government structure, the pre-Xi era, Xi's rise to power, and his actions as leader. Scott concludes that China's oligarchic system failed to prevent authoritarianism, increasing his confidence in democracy, though he's uncertain about attributing China's economic success solely to its government. Shorter summary

Lars Doucet presents evidence that land is still a major economic factor in modern times, contrary to some economists' claims. Longer summary

This post, written by Lars Doucet, is the first in a series examining the empirical basis for Georgism. It focuses on whether land is still a significant economic factor in modern times, as some economists argue it isn't. Doucet presents evidence that land is indeed a major economic factor, showing that it represents a large portion of urban real estate value, bank loans, personal assets, and government revenue potential. He also demonstrates that land ownership is highly concentrated among the wealthy, contributing to economic inequality. The post concludes that land is a 'really big deal' in modern economies, contrary to some economists' claims. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines theories for disease seasonality, proposing a dynamic model where seasonal factors entrain waning immunity cycles. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the seasonality of diseases, particularly focusing on flu and COVID-19. He discusses various theories for why diseases peak in winter, including cold temperatures, low humidity, indoor crowding, and vitamin D deficiency. He finds these explanations unsatisfactory and proposes that ultraviolet light might play a role. Scott then considers a dynamic model where disease immunity wanes over time, and seasonal factors entrain this cycle to create annual epidemics. He suggests that COVID-19 is currently in a 'half-seasonal' phase and may become fully seasonal once it has infected most of the population and exhausted easy mutations. Shorter summary

Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective. Longer summary

Scott analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdowns, examining data from Sweden, US states, and Europe. He finds that lockdowns likely reduced transmission rates, with targeted measures like school closures being more effective than stay-at-home orders. The analysis suggests lockdowns saved lives but at significant economic and emotional costs, with the cost-effectiveness varying between countries and time periods. Scott concludes that fast, well-targeted lockdowns may have been optimal, but emphasizes the high uncertainty in these estimates. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that Jewish overachievement is real and deserves continued study, countering Noah Smith's attempt to downplay its significance. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Noah Smith's article questioning whether Jews are really disproportionately successful. Scott argues that Jewish success is real and not fully explained by selective immigration or other factors Noah proposed. He examines historical evidence on Jewish immigration, compares Jewish achievement to urbanization rates, and discusses data on Jewish success in various fields. Scott concludes that Jewish overachievement remains an interesting and important phenomenon to study, potentially offering insights into genetics or cultural factors that could be broadly beneficial if understood. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and grades his predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, covering topics from Trump's base diversity to the likelihood of a coup. He analyzes his successes and failures, discussing his performance on prediction markets and his overall accuracy compared to average pundits. Scott concludes that he did about average in his predictions, with some notable successes in race-related predictions and on prediction markets, but also made mistakes in overestimating Trump's competence and underestimating his continued support from Republicans. Shorter summary

Henry George's 'Progress and Poverty' argues that private land ownership and rent cause persistent poverty, and proposes a land value tax as a solution. Longer summary

This review examines Henry George's book 'Progress and Poverty', which argues that poverty persists alongside economic progress due to private land ownership and rent-seeking. George proposes a land value tax as a solution to eliminate speculation, encourage efficient land use, and fund public goods. The review covers George's theories on wages, capital, rent, and criticisms of prevailing economic ideas like Malthusianism. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the COVID-19 pandemic's progress, predicts future waves, and speculates on its long-term impact and transition to an endemic disease. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the current state and future predictions for the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. He outlines the past waves of infections, predicts future waves due to new virus strains, analyzes vaccine efficacy against these strains, and speculates on how the pandemic might eventually transition to an endemic seasonal illness like the flu. He also touches on potential long-term societal changes and makes several specific predictions about future developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Just Giving' by Rob Reich, criticizing its arguments against philanthropy by showing how they could also be used to condemn book-writing. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Rob Reich's book 'Just Giving', which critically examines philanthropy's role in democracy. Scott finds the book's arguments troubling, as they could be applied to condemn any productive activity. He demonstrates this by rewriting sections of the book, replacing 'charity' with 'books', showing how the same logic could make book-writing seem undemocratic and problematic. While Scott agrees with some of Reich's points, he finds the overall tone and implications concerning. The review highlights the book's data on charitable giving patterns and its conclusion that philanthropy can diversify represented interests and allow for social policy experimentation. However, Scott criticizes the book's tendency to 'darkly hint' at philanthropy being bad, even while ultimately concluding it can serve a useful purpose. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the history of increasing competitiveness in college admissions, analyzing causes and questioning whether the focus on elite college admission is justified. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the history of college admissions and the increasing competitiveness in recent years. He traces the evolution from a time when top colleges admitted almost anyone qualified to the current highly competitive landscape. The post examines various factors contributing to this change, including increased applications per student, changing demographics, and shifts in evaluation criteria. Scott also investigates whether the intense focus on college admissions is justified, given research suggesting that attending a selective college may not significantly impact most students' long-term outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines conflicting narratives about cancer treatment progress, analyzing data to show that while some improvements are due to social factors, there's evidence of genuine advancements in cancer treatment and outcomes. Longer summary

This post examines the progress made in the 'War on Cancer' by analyzing cancer incidence rates, mortality rates, and five-year survival rates. Scott Alexander explores two competing narratives: one suggesting significant progress and another claiming limited success. He delves into the data, considering factors like age adjustment, smoking trends, and early detection biases. The analysis reveals that while some improvements are due to social factors like reduced smoking, there's evidence of genuine progress in cancer treatment. Stage-specific survival rates have improved, and studies adjusting for various confounders still show advancements. The post concludes that while progress may not meet the grand expectations set in the past, there has been a gradual but real improvement in cancer treatment and outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticisms of his tax bill posts, maintains that wealth distribution is more important than growth, and argues the bill likely won't benefit the poor as much as current spending. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses his thoughts on the recent tax bill, responding to criticisms of his previous posts. He admits he was wrong about there being no case for the bill and about CEO statements on using tax cuts. However, he maintains that economic growth is less important than wealth distribution, using an analogy about an effective altruist in a small town. He argues that in societies with high inequality, redistribution can be more beneficial than growth. Scott compares the potential benefits of the tax cut to other uses of government funds, concluding that it likely won't benefit the poor as much as maintaining current spending. He acknowledges some potential errors in his calculations but believes his overall point stands. Shorter summary